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Russell Wilson traded to Broncos for Noah Fant, Shelby Harris, Drew Lock, two 1sts, two 2nds


MikeT14

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9 minutes ago, Dbrog24 said:

I honestly hope you don't start Drew Lock or you will see this x1000. It got so bad to the point where most of the Broncos receivers were barely even running routes because they knew if it was a deep ball, it would be 5ft minimum over their heads or just directly in the stands. Even "smarter Drew" was just chucking it down to the first open read or trying to run to his right and cause a fumble. I don't think a lot of people here know just how bad Lock is.

Oh no. I’m aware. I just refuse to acknowledge Drew Lock starting any games for this team until I absolutely have to. 

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3 minutes ago, Joe_is_the_best said:

I learned a lot reading through this thread. I learned that the Broncos offense has below average talent, except for Noah Fant who's above average. 

Teams with better skill position players than the Broncos (in no order): 


Seahawks
Rams
49ers
Buccaneers
Panthers
Vikings
Packers 
Ravens
Bengals
Bills
Dolphins
Chargers
Chiefs
Titans
 

And I could argue for the Saints (w/ MT), Giants, and Cardinals but I won't. So below average might not be fair but you guys are certainly average at best (and that's with me putting a lot of stock into Javonte's ability). 


PS: Change your sig; Story is coming to Seattle as part of the Russell Wilson trade 😉
 

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13 minutes ago, Joe_is_the_best said:

I learned a lot reading through this thread. I learned that the Broncos offense has below average talent, except for Noah Fant who's above average. 

It really is interesting what the national media/casual fan perception of Fant is. People know he’s fast and was a great draft prospect and the numbers are solid. You have to watch him every week to see the tackles he doesn’t break and should, the awkwardness tracking the ball in the air and inconsistent blocking. 

But he’s definitely the best asset they got of the three players, with two more years of team control and a lot of athletic gifts. I hope he can make “the leap”, just haven’t seen enough of a natural football player.

 

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2 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

The unfortunate reality is that you don’t get sign-off as GM/HC on trading your city’s icon and SB winning QB unless you have unbridled support and job security from ownership. We’ve made our bed and we will now have to lay with the decision of choosing an aging, out-dated head coach and a GM with a pitiful recent track record over a HoF QB. 

It’s truly remarkable what’s happened to a team that was one blown play away from being a mini-dynasty of the decade. I hope there’s a 30-for-30 on it someday. 

Couldn't have said it better myself. The collapse has been been happening for years now, and somehow those who are most responsible for it are at the helm for this new coming chapter. That is.. underwhelming to say the least. Frustrating and beyond silly if I'm being rightfully a bit more harsh.

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17 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

I’d first point out that “arguably” was the operative word from my post. That said, I’m happy to argue it. 

I don’t get many opportunities to argue with you anymore, so I gotta take em when I get em.

17 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

First, legal resolution or not, this is going to result in a stain on the perception of Watson’s character.

I agree it SHOULD - but WILL it?

- Ben Roethlenberger just had a hero’s farewell after his retirement, with very little mention of his two rape allegations.

- Kobe Bryant was treated as the archetype #GirlDad after his passing, ignoring the allegations made against him in Colorado (which were never really resolved, just settled). When people did bring up the case in Colorado, they were called classless and accused of attacking a person who died tragically.

- Jameis Winston was accused of rape his final year at FSU. Charges were dropped and he was drafted #1 overall. Further allegations were made against him while at Tampa Bay, and that didn’t stop him from getting a starting job in New Orleans as well as getting considered as a potential starter next season.

- LA Dodgers P Trevor Bauer was accused of a particularly heinous act against a woman, and even admitted on recording there might not have been consent when he did what he did; For all intents and purposes, he’s still a member of the Dodgers and probably a key guy in their rotation.

I think there are plenty of examples of these allegations being forgotten by the public at large, and athletes continuing their career as if little happened. Maybe endorsements are lost, but endorsements never dictated a trade. 

It SHOULDN’T be that way, but it’s reality.

17 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Second, we just saw first hand the influence a no-trade clause can have on trade leverage. There have already been numerous leaks that teams like Washington and Philadelphia have made better offers for Russ than Denver did and I’d be surprised if there weren’t other teams in that mix. We’ve heard that Russell would pretty much only approve a move to Denver of the available options and I think our return reflects that lack of leverage. Not only that, but we’ve already seen reports that Watson wouldn’t approve a trade to Philadelphia, who is arguably the team with the most draft capital to offer. 

I guess my point was specific to the rumors that Seattle was doing their due diligence on Watson. Nick Caserio was able to see exactly what Seattle got for Russell Wilson, and is able to determine that he’s got a younger and more explosive version of Russ in Watson. Why would he ask for less? In this scenario, there are no legal issues and he’s been sitting on this guy for a year. Why ask for less now? The Texans aren’t winning in the near future, their in the midst of a complete overhaul, so this isn’t a move that suddenly vaults the Texans into a “win now” mode. There’s no real immediate need to move this asset (an asset that has a legitimate claim to being a top 5 player at his position) for pennies on the dollar. If the right deal doesn’t come along? Fine, let Watson sit again (as crazy as that sounds).

Specific to Seattle - Caserio is looking for everything Seattle just got from Denver (players included) plus a few picks (maybe a 3rd and a 6th). It’s not much more, but it’s also not going to work if it’s less.

16 hours ago, Soggust said:

I’ll also add that Watson is coming off a year without playing football.

This might be relevant if we’re talking about a 33 year old Carson Palmer in Cincinnati or a 37 year old Phillip Rivers, or even a 33 year old Andrew Luck who looks like he hasn’t worked out in a few years.

Deshaun Watson is 27 years old, quite literally in the prime of his physical condition - guys this age can knock the rust off very quickly (we saw a slew of guys sit out due to Covid, and they all regained form pretty quickly after picking the game back up). There’s a quick objection if this is brought up as a reason to knock value - if anything, given the beatings he took behind that Texans OL, that year off may have done him well (assuming he’s not pulling a James Harden and eating himself out of a job - which QB coach Quincy Avery states isn’t the case).

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3 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Teams with better skill position players than the Broncos (in no order): 


Seahawks- outside of Top 2 WR, you have an ok TE and a journeyman level RB
Rams- ok
49ers- ok 
Buccaneers- ok but this could change after FA
Panthers- no
Vikings- ok
Packers- ok 
Ravens-  it's close but Andrews is elite and Dobbins was hurt. Sutton > Brown 
Bengals ok
Bills RBs absolutely suck.
Dolphins No
Chargers Mike Williams is inconsistent and Keenan Allen is an IR Queen. Ekeler is overrated.
Chiefs Ok
Titans ok
 

And I could argue for the Saints (w/ MT), Giants, and Cardinals but I won't. So below average might not be fair but you guys are certainly average at best (and that's with me putting a lot of stock into Javonte's ability). 


PS: Change your sig; Story is coming to Seattle as part of the Russell Wilson trade 😉
 

 

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9 minutes ago, ET80 said:

I don’t get many opportunities to argue with you anymore, so I gotta take em when I get em.

Know that I've missed you and value this opportunity to verbally (digitally?) spar. 

 

11 minutes ago, ET80 said:

I agree it SHOULD - but WILL it?

Typically I'd agree with you on these points. However, I think you're underestimating the impact that the volume of allegations has in this case. It will also be a major tipping point if Watson ends up settling these civil suits, because in a lot of eyes that is the equivalent to an admission of guilt. 

Beyond that, the major difference between this scenario and the ones you've listed is that we have already had multiple team officials denounce any chance of them acquiring Watson. As I mentioned, Mara of the Giants has closed the book on it. The Steelers came out today and closed the book on it. And those are just the teams who have decided to verbalize their thinking on the matter this early in the process. Those teams who may be interested are already filling spots (see Washington and Denver). 

Again, we saw what happened when a QB with a PERFECT character resume had a no-trade clause as leverage. Now we have a QB with a very questionable character resume also hold the power of a no-trade clause. Not only are we ruling out teams that will be interested in pursuing him, but we're ruling out destinations that he's willing to play. 

22 minutes ago, ET80 said:

Why would he ask for less? In this scenario, there are no legal issues and he’s been sitting on this guy for a year. Why ask for less now? The Texans aren’t winning in the near future, their in the midst of a complete overhaul, so this isn’t a move that suddenly vaults the Texans into a “win now” mode. There’s no real immediate need to move this asset (an asset that has a legitimate claim to being a top 5 player at his position) for pennies on the dollar.

For the same reason multiple teams refuse to take him on. It's an absolute PR nightmare to have him associated with the team. To your point, they've been sitting on this for a year+. I have to imagine there's some internal fatigue with answering Watson-related questions at this point. You have a young developing QB in the building already. Do we want him to have to answer questions about job security and what he thinks about Watson returning? 

It's not about "asking for less". It's about taking the best offer you receive. Sure, you can sit on the asset for another year, but does that really improve his value at all? Are you really helping progress the team by not capitalizing on near-term draft capital? 
 

And frankly, in today's landscape, what is the value difference between a 27-year-old and a 33-year-old QB? Make no mistake, it's certainly a factor here, but you're likely expecting 5+ great years out of them regardless. Age aside, let's look at the resumes here. 

Wilson
1x SB champ 
2x SB appearances 
9 playoff wins 
Prior to last year's freak mallet finger injury, one of the most durable players in the sport 
Locker room darling 

Watson 
0x SB champ
0x SB appearances 
1 playoff win 
Durable, though maybe slightly less than Russ 
Locker room question mark 

 

So yes, age is a big factor, but does it trump character, PR reaction, and tangible results? 

 

Finally, let's examine the suitors. As has been noted, QB-needy teams like PIT and NYG have bowed out. WAS and DEN are effectively out. They won't trade him in the division (and I'm sure they'd prefer out of conference) so that rules out IND. Watson has already said he won't waive his no-trade clause for PHI who has the type of draft capital to really increase the price. 

I think that logically leaves us with Carolina and Seattle at this very moment. I'm sure other teams will pop up, but let's focus on those two for right now. 

Carolina doesn't have a 2nd or 4th round pick in this draft after using those to acquire Sam Darnold. Meanwhile, Seattle has 2 2nds this year, 2 1sts next year, and 2 2nds next year. 

I think we've now gotten to a point where Seattle has the leverage in negotiations simply due to having the most to offer (this of course assumes Watson would even want to come here). Again, other teams can enter the picture (Tampa?), but is a bottom 5 1st round pick this year enough to move the needle? Seattle is uniquely positioned to offer both a top 10 pick and additional capital. 

 

IF Watson is traded, my best guess at this point in time is that it would require 2 1sts and some lighter compensation on top of that (maybe another 2nd or 3rd + player) but not quite as much as what Russ fetched. 

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6 hours ago, ET80 said:

This might be relevant if we’re talking about a 33 year old Carson Palmer in Cincinnati or a 37 year old Phillip Rivers, or even a 33 year old Andrew Luck who looks like he hasn’t worked out in a few years.

Deshaun Watson is 27 years old, quite literally in the prime of his physical condition - guys this age can knock the rust off very quickly (we saw a slew of guys sit out due to Covid, and they all regained form pretty quickly after picking the game back up). There’s a quick objection if this is brought up as a reason to knock value - if anything, given the beatings he took behind that Texans OL, that year off may have done him well (assuming he’s not pulling a James Harden and eating himself out of a job - which QB coach Quincy Avery states isn’t the case).

Did we? Not that I don't believe you, and I don't know that many super high name players sat out 2020, but I can't think of a single one offhand who had a better 2021 than 2019.

I obviously don't know about every team, but the bigger name guys like Mosely, Hightower, Solder, all have worse 2021 PFF grades than 2019, upon a quick glance. Not that PFF is the be-all-end-all, but I'm just not sure where I see everyone picking the game back up quickly after sitting out 2020.

To be fair, this is box score scouting and maybe they got better as year went on, but that's kind of my point. In the better case scenarios, you don't get the full first year of quality play, theoretically. In the worst-case scenarios, he loses the desire for the game or never is the same player again (looking at you, LeVeon).

But this is kind of getting away from my real point which is not even that DW will be worse in 2022, but rather that there is absolutely 0 chance on earth I believe that a guy who sits out has the same value after being away from the game for a year. That just doesn't make sense.

Is it concerning enough to drop his value significantly? Probably not in a Carson-Wentz-going-for-2-thirds type year lol, but I don't believe for a moment it's just being dismissed because he's in his prime. 

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Something to think about:

Quote

One of Wilson’s biggest shortcomings and one that many shorter quarterbacks share (Wilson is listed at 5-11) is the inability to consistently use the short to intermediate middle of the field. When the pocket is muddy, it could become difficult for them to see that area of the field. The Seahawks rarely called plays to this area of the field even though a feature from Sean McVay’s offense, which Seattle offensive coordinator Shane Waldron runs, attacks it.

 

 

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On 3/10/2022 at 11:32 AM, SaveOurSonics said:

Teams with better skill position players than the Broncos (in no order): 


Seahawks
Rams
49ers
Buccaneers
Panthers
Vikings
Packers 
Ravens
Bengals
Bills
Dolphins
Chargers
Chiefs
Titans
 

And I could argue for the Saints (w/ MT), Giants, and Cardinals but I won't. So below average might not be fair but you guys are certainly average at best (and that's with me putting a lot of stock into Javonte's ability). 


PS: Change your sig; Story is coming to Seattle as part of the Russell Wilson trade 😉
 

I’ll have what he’s smoking! 😮💨

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On 3/10/2022 at 1:32 PM, SaveOurSonics said:

Teams with better skill position players than the Broncos (in no order): 


Seahawks
Rams
49ers
Buccaneers
Panthers
Vikings
Packers 
Ravens
Bengals
Bills
Dolphins
Chargers
Chiefs
Titans
 

And I could argue for the Saints (w/ MT), Giants, and Cardinals but I won't. So below average might not be fair but you guys are certainly average at best (and that's with me putting a lot of stock into Javonte's ability). 


PS: Change your sig; Story is coming to Seattle as part of the Russell Wilson trade 😉
 

Hawks have 2 good receivers, sure. Outside of that, Dissly and co aren't that special. 
 

Rams- All their RBs suck something fierce but Kupp and OBJ nullify a lot. Ill say Rams, sure.

 

49ers- sure

 

Bucs- not sure after free agency. Lose their TE, lose Godwin.

 

Panthers- lol no way

 

Vikings- yes for sure. 
 

Packers- Yup

Ravens- Dobbins was hurt bad so its hard to say but Sutton is better than Brown. Andrew's is elite. I'd rather have Broncos skill players over a great TE and 1 dimensional screen/deep threat.

 

Bengals- oh for sure they're loaded 

 

Bills- they have Diggs, terrible running backs, and no real no 2 receiver. 
 

Dolphins- not a chance in hell. Where'd this come from?

 

Chargers- Mike Williams is always missing as is Keenan Allen. Ekeler is overrated as well. I'll take our guys over the Chargers. 
 

Chiefs- yup.

 

Titans- yes, loaded 

 

 

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