Green Bay's Valuations of Draft Picks and Christian Watson

[Tperk]

17 minutes ago, TheEagle said:

I’m not ready to give up on Amari. I saw enough glimpses to think he has a chance. There was some shiftiness when he got the ball on underneath routes. He’s a hard worker and was a team leader at Clemson, so I think he’ll take a big step forward in year 2. We’ll move on from Cobb after this year, and I think Amari will man that slot role.

I'm with you on this. We trust the draft picks we made this year, why would we think they missed so badly on a 3rd rounder last year. He can't be that devoid of talent, hopefully something clicks this offseason and he gets it and feels more comfortable in the offense this season.

Edited May 11, 2022 by Tperk
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[CWood21]

On 5/9/2022 at 6:29 PM, Norm said:

Toure is interesting as ****. I knew who he was because one of my good football watching buddies is a huge Cornhusker fan and I swear it's all he knows for college but he had to go out of his way to tell me about him the other day and try to show me some video and ****. He seemed to like him. 

Could be one of those late guys who can produce a bit early if ya need it

The only thing that's got me mildly interested in Toure is the fact that he was so productive at Montana and Nebraska's QB situation has been dogcrap for the last several decades.

[CWood21]

On 5/9/2022 at 9:33 PM, MaximusGluteus said:

I never understood why they drafted Amari in the first place.  He's short, not fast, and not agile.  I liked him in college but didn't really see the fit in GB.

He was a completely different body type then what the Packers had in the WR room until Randall Cobb came along.  I think people are really starting to underestimate what he showed.  He was Randall Cobb in college in terms of utility.

[gizmo2012]

On 4/30/2022 at 8:03 AM, VicPez said:

So -- Green Bay gave up two late seconds to move up to the beginning of the second round to grab a wide receiver.  Based on the Jimmy Johnson chart, the Packers actually gave up more value than the 28th overall pick, which they spent on Devonte Wyatt.  On some level, that's understandable -- you pay a premium to move up with a division rival.

I know the Jimmy Johnson chart isn't the be-all, end-all of draft trade evaluation.  For example, I stumbled upon this valuation:

https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart-Rich-Hill.asp

Using the values in this chart, Green Bay gave up slightly less than the value of Pick 28, but still paid a premium to move up to Pick 34.

I also remember reading something about a decade ago about some mathematicians putting together some different trade value charts.  I can't find them at the moment, however.
My question is whether this decision to give up two late seconds to move up tot he beginning of the second helps us pinpoint either the valuation that Green Bay places on individual draft picks (and hints at which variation of the draft trade chart Green Bay uses to calculate trade outcomes) or whether it helps us pinpoint their valuation of Christian Watson.  After all, if Green Bay was willing to give up more than the value of Pick 28 to move up to grab Christian Watson, we can assume that they would have been happy to take Watson at Pick 28.  Their decision on which player between the two to take there would probably be determined by other factors -- which one they thought they'd have the best chance to grab later on, for example.

We know that there are rumors that Green Bay was speaking with Minnesota about moving up to Pick 32, probably to grab Watson.  The explanation I've heard is that Minnesota was hesitant to make the trade at 32 but was willing to do it at 34, to deny Green Bay the chance at a 5th year option.  I've seen some people deride this idea as too clever, but it actually makes a lot of sense to me.  If Minnesota assumes their player of interest would be on the board at 32 and 34 (not necessarily assured!), and Green Bay's would also be on the board at 32 and 34, and that Green Bay was willing to give the same package for picks 32 and 34, then obviously they'd favor the scenario that gave them their guy with a fifth year option and gave Green Bay Watson without a fifth year option.  When we add in the "premium" for Minnesota of knowing that the player they wanted would definitely be there at 32, rather than the uncertainty of waiting for 34, Minnesota seems to have maximized the value of their draft pick and the trade with Green Bay, even if it's in a very small way.

On the other hand, it's pretty telling that the above rumor (which I'm treating as credible for the sake of this post) indicates that Green Bay was willing to offer the same package to the Vikings for both Pick 32 and Pick 34.  This hints that Green Bay's willingness to trade up with the capital they used was based on their valuation of Watson himself, rather than the draft pick connected with picking him. 

The final hint at Green Bay's valuation of Christian Watson is Aaron Rodgers's interview on the Pat McAfee show, which aired at the same time as Green Bay grabbed Devonte Wyatt.  He indicated that Green Bay had first round grades on six receivers, and that all of them were gone by the time Green Bay picked at 22.  This tidbit confuses me -- if what Rodgers is saying is accurate, why was Green Bay willing to offer more (or slightly less) draft capital than Pick 28 to move back up to the end of the first or beginning of the second?  It could be as simple as Watson being the first and highest second round receiver on Green Bay's board, and them deciding to reach for a position of need.  Or, Green Bay could have valued Wyatt substantially higher than the 28th pick and been ecstatic that he fell to them there -- if that's the case, there's no contradiction in Green Bay being willing to give up roughly equivalent value for a guy they would've taken there had Wyatt not fallen.

Ultimately, this post was a bit more rambly than I'd like, but I wanted to focus in on this trade and the players selected by Green Bay because this situation may offer more insight than we usually get into the way Green Bay places value on picks and prospects -- in this case, Watson specifically.

because Watson was by far the highest rate d receiver on the Packers board. Do you have a problem with the pick? I don't so they gave up net 1 pick to move up to get Watson.

[vegas492]

I didn't like Amari last year either.  But I looked up his scouting evaluation....

from nfl.com.  Hopefully some of these traits start showing up.

Overview

Compact slot target who thrived at Clemson with his ability to create chunk plays out of short catch-and-runs and take the top off defenses with his speed. Rodgers has a running back's stout lower body, providing power and balance to break tackles and rumble through contact with the ball in his hands. His ball skills are pretty good, but he can go from magnificent catch to focus drop in a single drive. Rodgers uses speed alterations inside the route and a sudden burst to top speed to create deep separation from coverage. He's not as effective at separating underneath against tight man coverage and will need to prove himself in that regard.

 

Sources Tell Us

"I love his value because you can play him like San Francisco uses Deebo Samuel, but he has the strength and speed to line up outside, too." -- Area scout for NFC team

[Norm]

1 hour ago, vegas492 said:

I didn't like Amari last year either.  But I looked up his scouting evaluation....

from nfl.com.  Hopefully some of these traits start showing up.

Overview

Compact slot target who thrived at Clemson with his ability to create chunk plays out of short catch-and-runs and take the top off defenses with his speed. Rodgers has a running back's stout lower body, providing power and balance to break tackles and rumble through contact with the ball in his hands. His ball skills are pretty good, but he can go from magnificent catch to focus drop in a single drive. Rodgers uses speed alterations inside the route and a sudden burst to top speed to create deep separation from coverage. He's not as effective at separating underneath against tight man coverage and will need to prove himself in that regard.

 

Sources Tell Us

"I love his value because you can play him like San Francisco uses Deebo Samuel, but he has the strength and speed to line up outside, too." -- Area scout for NFC team

McGinn's scout "forgets to clip his toenails, undraftable"

[Norm]

Doesn't drink the milk out of his cereal, weak bones. Huge injury red flag

[vegas492]

18 hours ago, Norm said:

Doesn't drink the milk out of his cereal, weak bones. Huge injury red flag

Bought his momma a house.  Future All Pro.