Green Bay's Valuations of Draft Picks and Christian Watson

[Kampfgeist]

1 hour ago, PossibleCabbage said:

I'm not even sure why the Cardinals were interested.  He has not exactly shown himself to be a quality NFL player.  I guess there's the "appease Kyler Murray" angle, but I wouldn't have traded a 3rd for Hollywood personally.

 

?  He had 91 1008 6 TD's last year - his third in the league.   He's had a pretty good start to his career and as small as he is has played 14, 16 and 16 gms over the three seasons - with 21 TD's.   Hasn't had a Mike Evans or Justin Jefferson or Ja'Marr Chase superstar start but a good progression to more than quality NFL player imo.    Fair argument on trade value - I completely agree a mid-1st rounder is too much and wouldn't think the Packers interest was in that range, but "wouldn't trade a 3rd" seems too low for a young 1000 yd receiver?    Christian Kirk was pretty good in that offense last year, interested to see what Hollywood can do.

[Sandy]

5 hours ago, Norm said:

I said this somewhere yesterday that people think he has all these rules and ways to predict him, I think it was about Watson actually, but all I said was I would have been crucified for suggesting we'd take an "ILB" at #22. Especially Quay, even if I did a mock an hour before the draft started. But it happens and we move past it like a bunch of people thought it was a really possiblity. 

You just don't know. We try our best but it's damn unpredictable still. 

Spot on. All I learned this year is that nothing is certain besides high RAS olinemen.

[Norm]

21 minutes ago, Sandy said:

Spot on. All I learned this year is that nothing is certain besides high RAS olinemen.

I think I mentioned this but I was a GIANT Randall Cobb fan in college and wanted to take him at 32, was not this forum but people basically told me I was a big stupid poo poo head and we would never take that kind of WR. Then we passed and everyone was giving me **** but we still got him. I said nothing. Then the guy that had all this guidelines for every position adjusted his lowest possible height for WRs to exactly Cobbs measurement and didn't realize we could see the edit lol. So he could act like he wasn't wrong. Then much **** was given. They had it coming and it was mostly all in fun both ways

[Norm]

2 hours ago, Kampfgeist said:

He had 91 1008 6 TD's last year

No ****?

Had no idea. Narratives are wild. Figured he was like 45/600

[R T]

5 hours ago, Norm said:

I said this somewhere yesterday that people think he has all these rules and ways to predict him, I think it was about Watson actually, but all I said was I would have been crucified for suggesting we'd take an "ILB" at #22. Especially Quay, even if I did a mock an hour before the draft started. But it happens and we move past it like a bunch of people thought it was a really possiblity. 

You just don't know. We try our best but it's damn unpredictable still. 

There is a lot of truth in most of that, but I don't think it is as unpredictable as people want to make it out to be either. The 1st rounds are always tough and that has been the case dating back to Ron Wolf, they are trying not to show their cards, it shouldn't be easy. Sometimes I think people make the claims of unpredictability to lump everyone together in failure and I don't believe everyone fails at it unless you believe that we should know every pick. If you look back at the draft contest you will see a handful of people did a pretty good job ferreting out the majority of the selections. Some had as many as 7 of the 11 in their selections and that was after missing on the 1st rounders, so that is 7 of the last 9. I don't think that is that unpredictable. IMO    

[Norm]

3 minutes ago, R T said:

There is a lot of truth in most of that, but I don't think it is as unpredictable as people want to make it out to be either. The 1st rounds are always tough and that has been the case dating back to Ron Wolf, they are trying not to show their cards, it shouldn't be easy. Sometimes I think people make the claims of unpredictability to lump everyone together in failure and I don't believe everyone fails at it unless you believe that we should know every pick. If you look back at the draft contest you will see a handful of people did a pretty good job ferreting out the majority of the selections. Some had as many as 7 of the 11 in their selections and that was after missing on the 1st rounders, so that is 7 of the last 9. I don't think that is that unpredictable. IMO    

A. They need to unlock that so I can find out who won and pay the ****er.

B. You got to pick literally almost 1/5 of the guys taken as possible selections made for us. I don't do the maths because I'm not a huge nerd but I'm guessing that gives you decent odds even picking at damn random with that number of people entered.

 

Don't take this personal man btw lol. I'm not saying you guys are idiots and know nothing. I'm just saying I think we change the narrative of who we all thought we might go to usAFTER the draft ends, where those same names would be met with far more, idk, rejection as possibilities before the draft. But after it's like "oh yeah of course we like him yada yada." Then why did like nobody hardly bring them up? 

Maybe I just hear the echo chamber that we get a bit being inside this bubble, I don't post or read hardly anything outside here other than dudes I talk to IRL.

 

[mikemike778]

2 hours ago, vegas492 said:

Yet there are reports out there saying that GB tried trading up but the ask was too much?  (Could be smoke, but I doubt it, as I think it was Gute who said it.)

They certainly were not calling about Johnson.

Doubt that they were calling about Walker.

I'll bet they were calling about moving up for a WR.  Which one?  That's the debate.

Gute also said he was under no pressure to take a receiver in the second round and then immediately traded up to get one.  Anything he said mid draft should be considered a smoke screen.

[Norm]

6 minutes ago, mikemike778 said:

Gute also said he was under no pressure to take a receiver in the second round and then immediately traded up to get one.  Anything he said mid draft should be considered a smoke screen.

Gute turning into Aaron confirmed

[R T]

3 minutes ago, Norm said:

A. They need to unlock that so I can find out who won and pay the ****er.

B. You got to pick literally almost 1/5 of the guys taken as possible selections made for us. I don't do the maths because I'm not a huge nerd but I'm guessing that gives you decent odds even picking at damn random with that number of people entered.

 

Don't take this personal man btw lol. I'm not saying you guys are idiots and know nothing. I'm just saying I think we change the narrative of who we all thought we might go to usAFTER the draft ends, where those same names would be met with far more, idk, rejection as possibilities before the draft. But after it's like "oh yeah of course we like him yada yada." Then why did like nobody hardly bring them up? 

Maybe I just hear the echo chamber that we get a bit being inside this bubble, I don't post or read hardly anything outside here other than dudes I talk to IRL.

 

That is why I was basically agreeing with you, not trying to change the narrative. My point was that there is more to a draft than the first round and the group think was pretty spot on after the first in my opinion. 

I added up the contest results and tagged you on Monday with them, but I'll bump them up for you here in a minute.    

[Norm]

12 minutes ago, R T said:

That is why I was basically agreeing with you, not trying to change the narrative. My point was that there is more to a draft than the first round and the group think was pretty spot on after the first in my opinion. 

I added up the contest results and tagged you on Monday with them, but I'll bump them up for you here in a minute.    

I don't know how the hell I missed that...I wasn't even drinking

[Striker]

7 hours ago, Kampfgeist said:

?  He had 91 1008 6 TD's last year - his third in the league.   He's had a pretty good start to his career and as small as he is has played 14, 16 and 16 gms over the three seasons - with 21 TD's.   Hasn't had a Mike Evans or Justin Jefferson or Ja'Marr Chase superstar start but a good progression to more than quality NFL player imo.    Fair argument on trade value - I completely agree a mid-1st rounder is too much and wouldn't think the Packers interest was in that range, but "wouldn't trade a 3rd" seems too low for a young 1000 yd receiver?    Christian Kirk was pretty good in that offense last year, interested to see what Hollywood can do.

Not only that, but he did it on a team that saw Jackson with limited effectiveness due to injury and in Roman's system, which favors RBs and TEs. He'll probably see some real nice success this year under Kingsbury's far more pass happy scheme.

[vegas492]

17 hours ago, R T said:

If you're playing poker and someone believes you have one thing and folds and you win the hand, do you show your cards? If people are out there running down empty rabbit holes and assuming he wanted to trade up for a WR, is it wise for Gutes to continue to let those people bump around in the dark or should he tell them what his plans were? Gutes said he made calls, that was it. If he said that he hadn't the media would have killed him far worse than they did anyways.  

So you are telling me that Gute lied in his presser?  Yah right.  Nothing wrong with saying what Gute did.  He made calls, the trades were too expensive.  We see where the WR's went, we saw the trades happen, everything Gute said lines up with what we all saw.

Follow that up with Gute's history of trading up.  Obviously he's working the phones.  Calling around to check on possible trades is something that he has done in the past and it has worked.  It just didn't work this year.

Also, I missed where the media "killed him".  

[vegas492]

15 hours ago, Norm said:

I think I mentioned this but I was a GIANT Randall Cobb fan in college and wanted to take him at 32, was not this forum but people basically told me I was a big stupid poo poo head and we would never take that kind of WR. Then we passed and everyone was giving me **** but we still got him. I said nothing. Then the guy that had all this guidelines for every position adjusted his lowest possible height for WRs to exactly Cobbs measurement and didn't realize we could see the edit lol. So he could act like he wasn't wrong. Then much **** was given. They had it coming and it was mostly all in fun both ways

I remember the Cobb draft well.

My old man was part of PackerChatters at the time.  They had a nice prize package for someone who correctly predicted the first two picks for the Packers that year.  I think it was a nice framed picture of Lambeau and maybe a book or a jersey.

The old man predicted Sherrod in the first and Cobb in the second.  He was the only one on that forum that got it right.

RIP pops,  Miss yah.

[R T]

13 minutes ago, vegas492 said:

So you are telling me that Gute lied in his presser?  Yah right.  Nothing wrong with saying what Gute did.  He made calls, the trades were too expensive.  We see where the WR's went, we saw the trades happen, everything Gute said lines up with what we all saw.

Follow that up with Gute's history of trading up.  Obviously he's working the phones.  Calling around to check on possible trades is something that he has done in the past and it has worked.  It just didn't work this year.

Also, I missed where the media "killed him".  

Nowhere did I say Gutes lied or did I say that the media did kill him, read better and understanding what was written is step one.   

[vegas492]

19 hours ago, R T said:

If you're playing poker and someone believes you have one thing and folds and you win the hand, do you show your cards? If people are out there running down empty rabbit holes and assuming he wanted to trade up for a WR, is it wise for Gutes to continue to let those people bump around in the dark or should he tell them what his plans were? Gutes said he made calls, that was it. If he said that he hadn't the media would have killed him far worse than they did anyways.  

So the media didn't kill him as you stated here?  

And by showing the cards, did you mean why would he tell the media what he was doing?  I mean clearly he called around for trades.  And your statement in the first line is believing that he did not, because why show your cards?

If you think he called, but not for receivers, then who?  Don't tell me you don't know, you've professed that the draft is not random at all.  

I'll refrain from insulting your intelligence with a reading comprehension quip.