Packerraymond Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 1 hour ago, skibrett15 said: hurr, durr example of trading up working out. What about that crapola michigan state DT we traded up for in the 2nd? Also, clay matthews was ancient history. Been plenty of convo about Trade charts on here since. No need to contribute if you, ahem, aren't. Why would anyone want to debate with that? You getting enough sleep? It's just perceived value with fake numbers. We wanted a player, we got the player. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scoremore Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 (edited) 2 hours ago, skibrett15 said: Stuart/Fitzgerald-Spielberger measures - i.e. the success rate of the picks at these slots This is the way it should be formulated. If you were just taking a pure mathematical view of it makes a lot of sense. Regardless if you believe in a guy and want him go get him. Clearly the case here. As long as the price is within reason a small overpay shouldn't stop you. Gute was determined to get Watson. The more I read up on the guy the more it's easy to understand why. Back to the NO post look what they gave up to get Olave. Now that is a serious overpay. We have nothing like that here. Given the craze around WR this year I'd say Gutenheimer did pretty well. Watson has all the makings to be a star in this league. I'd argue a higher ultimate upside than Olave. #53 #59 vs.(2022) #11 #98 #102 (2023) #1 (2024)#2. Trade value chart has a purpose but it's not the gospel. Gets violated all the time. NO man OUCH... Edited May 2, 2022 by Scoremore Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
incognito_man Posted May 3, 2022 Share Posted May 3, 2022 11 minutes ago, Scoremore said: This is the way it should be formulated. If you were just taking a pure mathematical view of it makes a lot of sense. Regardless if you believe in a guy and want him go get him. Clearly the case here. As long as the price is within reason a small overpay shouldn't stop you. Gute was determined to get Watson. The more I read up on the guy the more it's easy to understand why. Back to the NO post look what they gave up to get Olave. Now that is a serious overpay. We have nothing like that here. Given the craze around WR this year I'd say Gutenheimer did pretty well. Watson has all the makings to be a star in this league. I'd argue a higher ultimate upside than Olave. #53 #59 vs.(2022) #11 #98 #102 (2023) #1 (2024)#2. Trade value chart has a purpose but it's not the gospel. Gets violated all the time. NO man OUCH... For reference, their chart values 53+59 as equivalent to the 8th overall pick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norm Posted May 3, 2022 Share Posted May 3, 2022 3 hours ago, Packerraymond said: I remember the last time we had a thread like this, we took a guy named Clay Matthews. There were no follow-up threads wondering if we made the right call. BUT THE COMPUTERS SAY THIS IS WHAT TO DO. THE COMPUTERS. EVERYTHING IS COMPUTERS AND MATH AND EVERY TIME IT'S WRONG IT DOESN'T COUNT. COMPUTERS CAN'T TELL LIES !!!!!!!!!7888!!!!00!!!12!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexGreen#20 Posted May 3, 2022 Share Posted May 3, 2022 12 minutes ago, incognito_man said: For reference, their chart values 53+59 as equivalent to the 8th overall pick. That doesn't surprise me. The overall hit rate on the #8 pick is probably something like 60%. The hit rate on each of those picks is probably like 21%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packerraymond Posted May 3, 2022 Share Posted May 3, 2022 16 minutes ago, Norm said: BUT THE COMPUTERS SAY THIS IS WHAT TO DO. THE COMPUTERS. EVERYTHING IS COMPUTERS AND MATH AND EVERY TIME IT'S WRONG IT DOESN'T COUNT. COMPUTERS CAN'T TELL LIES !!!!!!!!!7888!!!!00!!!12!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norm Posted May 3, 2022 Share Posted May 3, 2022 Just now, Packerraymond said: Pretty soon when we watch football it's just going to look like this 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norm Posted May 3, 2022 Share Posted May 3, 2022 Oh **** I think I saw a 9.9 RAS in there. Go get him Gute Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skibrett15 Posted May 3, 2022 Share Posted May 3, 2022 37 minutes ago, Packerraymond said: Why would anyone want to debate with that? You getting enough sleep? It's just perceived value with fake numbers. We wanted a player, we got the player. It's not required to post in every thread... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norm Posted May 3, 2022 Share Posted May 3, 2022 Just now, skibrett15 said: It's not required to post in every thread... Nobody ever told me this. Are you sure? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skibrett15 Posted May 3, 2022 Share Posted May 3, 2022 Just now, Norm said: Nobody ever told me this. Are you sure? Pretty sure, but maybe there is a participation trophy somewhere on here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norm Posted May 3, 2022 Share Posted May 3, 2022 (edited) 45 minutes ago, Packerraymond said: Why would anyone want to debate with that? You getting enough sleep? It's just perceived value with fake numbers. We wanted a player, we got the player. This probably got covered and I know he only cares about averages of success at every single actual slot but let's just say GBs actual board Walker, Wyatt and Watson in the top 20. Now we're at day two and Watson is the highest guy at have left by idk, quite a bit. The charts say okay you can't give up so much for 34 because it's just #34 and it's not worth that much, but you really truly believe he's top 20 in the class, are you really supposed to not take that into account and say well nope sorry we can't give that much and keep your late 2nds even though in your minds, you're getting a top20 talent. I guess what I'm saying is why wouldn't you want to take that into consideration (assuming this was true, just a hypothetical so let's not get into if it's reality) Edit: I'm all for the most throws you can get in those first 64 but I don't know that this was panic and desperate and I think that's Brett's point? Edited May 3, 2022 by Norm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uffdaswede Posted May 3, 2022 Share Posted May 3, 2022 1 hour ago, incognito_man said: For reference, their chart values 53+59 as equivalent to the 8th overall pick. My God, could you imagine anyone trading down for THAT? This discussion gives me something to read, so there’s that, but you can’t get me to honk in dismay about losing two late seconds for a near first round pick. (Sez the guy who honks in dismay at the team trading up for a high ceiling low floor quarterback. The first amendment guarantees our right to honk.) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VonKarman Posted May 3, 2022 Share Posted May 3, 2022 11 hours ago, incognito_man said: For reference, their chart values 53+59 as equivalent to the 8th overall pick. Which kinda makes sense if you also take into account their salary. See these last 5 years: 2022 London/Pierce+Ingram 2021 Jaycee Horn/Radunz+Terrace Marshall 2020 Isaiah Simmons/Hurts+Mims 2019 TJ Hockenson/Miles Sanders+Parris Campbell 2018 Roquan Smith/MJ Stewart+Derrius Guice Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VonKarman Posted May 3, 2022 Share Posted May 3, 2022 By the way, many of the guys who design these charts also comment how those values change if you trade up for a quarterback. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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