Jump to content

Green Bay's Valuations of Draft Picks and Christian Watson


VicPez

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, skibrett15 said:

hurr, durr example of trading up working out.  

What about that crapola michigan state DT we traded up for in the 2nd?

Also, clay matthews was ancient history.  Been plenty of convo about Trade charts on here since.  No need to contribute if you, ahem, aren't.

Why would anyone want to debate with that? You getting enough sleep?

It's just perceived value with fake numbers. We wanted a player, we got the player. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, skibrett15 said:

Stuart/Fitzgerald-Spielberger measures - i.e. the success rate of the picks at these slots

This is the way it should be formulated.  If you were just taking a pure mathematical view of it makes a lot of sense.  Regardless if you believe in a guy and want him go get him.  Clearly the case here.  As long as the price is within reason a small overpay shouldn't stop you.  Gute was determined to get Watson.  The more I read up on the guy the more it's easy to understand why.  Back to the NO post look what they gave up to get Olave.  Now that is a serious overpay.  We have nothing like that here.  Given the craze around WR this year I'd say Gutenheimer did pretty well. 

Watson has all the makings to be a star in this league.  I'd argue a higher ultimate upside than Olave.  #53 #59 vs.(2022) #11 #98 #102  (2023) #1  (2024)#2.  

Trade value chart has a purpose but it's not the gospel.  Gets violated all the time.  NO man OUCH...

Edited by Scoremore
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, Scoremore said:

This is the way it should be formulated.  If you were just taking a pure mathematical view of it makes a lot of sense.  Regardless if you believe in a guy and want him go get him.  Clearly the case here.  As long as the price is within reason a small overpay shouldn't stop you.  Gute was determined to get Watson.  The more I read up on the guy the more it's easy to understand why.  Back to the NO post look what they gave up to get Olave.  Now that is a serious overpay.  We have nothing like that here.  Given the craze around WR this year I'd say Gutenheimer did pretty well. 

Watson has all the makings to be a star in this league.  I'd argue a higher ultimate upside than Olave.  #53 #59 vs.(2022) #11 #98 #102  (2023) #1  (2024)#2.  

Trade value chart has a purpose but it's not the gospel.  Gets violated all the time.  NO man OUCH...

For reference, their chart values 53+59 as equivalent to the 8th overall pick.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Packerraymond said:

I remember the last time we had a thread like this, we took a guy named Clay Matthews. There were no follow-up threads wondering if we made the right call.

BUT THE COMPUTERS SAY THIS IS WHAT TO DO. THE COMPUTERS. EVERYTHING IS COMPUTERS AND MATH AND EVERY TIME IT'S WRONG IT DOESN'T COUNT. COMPUTERS CAN'T TELL LIES !!!!!!!!!7888!!!!00!!!12!!!

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

For reference, their chart values 53+59 as equivalent to the 8th overall pick.

That doesn't surprise me. The overall hit rate on the #8 pick is probably something like 60%. The hit rate on each of those picks is probably like 21%.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

37 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

Why would anyone want to debate with that? You getting enough sleep?

It's just perceived value with fake numbers. We wanted a player, we got the player. 

It's not required to post in every thread...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

45 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

Why would anyone want to debate with that? You getting enough sleep?

It's just perceived value with fake numbers. We wanted a player, we got the player. 

This probably got covered and I know he only cares about averages of success at every single actual slot but let's just say GBs actual board Walker, Wyatt and Watson in the top 20. Now we're at day two and Watson is the highest guy at have left by idk, quite a bit. The charts say okay you can't give up so much for 34 because it's just #34 and it's not worth that much, but you really truly believe he's top 20 in the class, are you really supposed to not take that into account and say well nope sorry we can't give that much and keep your late 2nds even though in your minds, you're getting a top20 talent. I guess what I'm saying is why wouldn't you want to take that into consideration (assuming this was true, just a hypothetical so let's not get into if it's reality)

Edit: I'm all for the most throws you can get in those first 64 but I don't know that this was panic and desperate and I think that's Brett's point?

Edited by Norm
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, incognito_man said:

For reference, their chart values 53+59 as equivalent to the 8th overall pick.

My God, could you imagine anyone trading down for THAT?

This discussion gives me something to read, so there’s that, but you can’t get me to honk in dismay about losing two late seconds for a near first round pick.

 (Sez the guy who honks in dismay at the team trading up for a high ceiling low floor quarterback. The first amendment guarantees our right to honk.)

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, incognito_man said:

For reference, their chart values 53+59 as equivalent to the 8th overall pick.

Which kinda makes sense if you also take into account their salary. See these last 5 years:

 

2022 London/Pierce+Ingram

2021 Jaycee Horn/Radunz+Terrace Marshall

2020 Isaiah Simmons/Hurts+Mims

2019 TJ Hockenson/Miles Sanders+Parris Campbell

2018 Roquan Smith/MJ Stewart+Derrius Guice

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...