Jaire Extended for 4 Years

[CWood21]

16 hours ago, JordanLoveFTW said:

I don’t know if Amos rubs people the wrong way in organizations. He’s kind of a cocky ****** bag on Twitter. 
 

It’s weird that the Bears let him go and weird that we seem ready to, too. 

There's a LOT of projecting going on here.  The list of 3rd contracts being handed out by the Packers is very slim, and it's even slimmer if you exclude the guys who were drafted by the Packers, I believe it would only consist of Charles Woodson since Ted Thompson took over.

[Norm]

6 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

There's a LOT of projecting going on here.  The list of 3rd contracts being handed out by the Packers is very slim, and it's even slimmer if you exclude the guys who were drafted by the Packers, I believe it would only consist of Charles Woodson since Ted Thompson took over.

This guy plays Pokemon. Don't listen to him.

[Old Guy]

18 hours ago, CWood21 said:

He was good, but let's not get ahead of ourselves.  He wasn't an elite LT.  I don't think the discussions have real traction until he gets back on the field.  But $18M/year isn't a bad number.

I didn't say he was an elite LT. That hardly matters when it comes to agents and asking price though. Also, agree this needs to play out some. 

How does Bakh look when he comes back this year? Same for Jenkins. 

How good are the rookies we just drafted?

Where does Gute prioritize his future extensions on the horizon?

[CWood21]

16 minutes ago, Old Guy said:

I didn't say he was an elite LT. That hardly matters when it comes to agents and asking price though. Also, agree this needs to play out some. 

How does Bakh look when he comes back this year? Same for Jenkins. 

How good are the rookies we just drafted?

Where does Gute prioritize his future extensions on the horizon?

There's only 3 OL that are making $22M+ (Trent Williams, David Bakhtiari, and Laremy Tunsil).  His agent can ask for it, but there's no way in hell he's getting that much money.  The framework is pretty much there.  You're probably looking at somewhere in the $17.5M-$18.5M range in terms of AAV.

I'm not so sure Bakh is safe beyond this upcoming season.  I think he's still likely to be back in 2023, but 2024 is looking exceedingly precarious.  The Packers save just under $6M if they release him after this year, but that seems unlikely unless he misses a large chunk of the season.  After the 2023 season, they save $21.5M by releasing him minus any potential restructure of his 2023 cap hit.  That's not chump change by any means.  And the fact that they chose to not restructure him utilizing void years suggests to me he's not going to be a Packer after his current contract expires but that's purely speculation on my behalf.

The Packers utilizing so many picks on the OL is interesting, because it clearly shows they're focusing on the future of their OL.  Josh Myers isn't going anywhere, and a potential Jenkins extension locks him, but beyond those two I'm not there's a clear future beyond next season for our OL.

Fortunately for Green Bay, Eltgon Jenkins is the only notable FA and he's a probable franchise tag candidate.  A 1 year, ~$18M deal for him wouldn't be the worst case scenario.  It'd push the Packers to close to $24.5M over the cap, but you've got some restructure options (Kenny Clark, Aaron Jones, David Bakhtiari, etc.) to get it to work.  Aaron Jones is the only real notable potential cap casualty.

[craig]

2 hours ago, CWood21 said:

There's only 3 OL that are making $22M+ ....  The framework is pretty much ....somewhere in the $17.5M-$18.5M range in terms of AAV.

I'm not so sure Bakh is safe beyond this upcoming season. ...After the 2023 season, they save $21.5M by releasing him .

...Jenkins is the only notable FA and he's a probable franchise tag candidate.  A 1 year, ~$18M deal for him wouldn't be the worst case scenario.  It'd push the Packers to close to $24.5M over the cap, but you've got some restructure options (Kenny Clark, Aaron Jones, David Bakhtiari, etc.) to get it to work.  Aaron Jones is the only real notable potential cap casualty.

Thanks, CWood, that's really helpful framework for me. 

1. I assume "close to $24.5M over the cap" assumes reasonable informed projection of how far the cap will jump? 
2. That doesn't seem that bad.  
3. *IF* Jenkins at $18 puts you only $24.5 over the cap, then *if* you hypothetically work a multiyear deal so that the actual cap hit is more like $8-9, could be <$15 over?  
4. Does your $24.5 already assume carrying a handful of millions over from this year?  Seems to me that *IF* they hypothetically don't spend much more of their current cap, might they perhaps be able to carry an additional $5-8 forward? 

[thrILL!]

 

[CWood21]

9 hours ago, craig said:

Thanks, CWood, that's really helpful framework for me. 

1. I assume "close to $24.5M over the cap" assumes reasonable informed projection of how far the cap will jump? 
2. That doesn't seem that bad.  
3. *IF* Jenkins at $18 puts you only $24.5 over the cap, then *if* you hypothetically work a multiyear deal so that the actual cap hit is more like $8-9, could be <$15 over?  
4. Does your $24.5 already assume carrying a handful of millions over from this year?  Seems to me that *IF* they hypothetically don't spend much more of their current cap, might they perhaps be able to carry an additional $5-8 forward? 

OTC has the salary cap projected at $225M, and currently $6.7M over the cap.  Figure in ~$18M for a franchise tag, and you're pretty much at the $24.5M over the cap.  A Jenkins' extension would almost assuredly be closer to a third of that in a Y1 cap hit.  If they get an extension done this year, they'd be able to pro-rate his signing bonus into this year's cap and his cap hit would go up this year.  OTC has us at $17M under the cap, while Spotrac has us closer to $16.8 you're probably splitting hairs.  Ingalls has us projected with ~$3M in useable cap space, so a $15M signing bonus spread over 5 years eats up most of that.  Figure a 5 year, $90M with $15M of that being a signing bonus.  Probably looking at something like Braden Smith's contract plus inflation.