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Taylor and Kupp - 2022


Hunter2_1

Predict their upcoming seasons (compared to last season)  

42 members have voted

  1. 1. Cooper Kupp

    • Improvement on last season
      0
    • About the same
      1
    • Slight regression toward mean
      30
    • Significant regression toward mean
      11
  2. 2. Jonathan Taylor

    • Improvement on last season
      1
    • About the same
      17
    • Slight regression toward mean
      20
    • Significant regression toward mean
      4


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I guess it depends what the difference is between slight and significant. I would expect if both of them stay healthy they would be at the top of the league in all rushing/receiving categories. But my expectation for Kupp would be around 1500 yards and 12 TDs. Which is a 400 yard/4 TD drop-off. 

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Rice 1995 put up 1848 and 15. The next year was 1254 and 8

Moss 2007 put up 1493 and 23. In 2009 with Brady back he put up 1264 and 13

Its hard for WRs to be that consistently great year after year. Kupp could have 1347 and 10 this year. He'd get all pro consideration and also be 600 and 6 below last year.

 

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On 7/22/2022 at 7:22 PM, SkippyX said:

Rice 1995 put up 1848 and 15. The next year was 1254 and 8

Moss 2007 put up 1493 and 23. In 2009 with Brady back he put up 1264 and 13

Its hard for WRs to be that consistently great year after year. Kupp could have 1347 and 10 this year. He'd get all pro consideration and also be 600 and 6 below last year.

 

Is it easier for RBs, statistically/historically? 

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I expect pretty significant statistical regression from Kupp, but he still should be favored for an all-pro spot. He's a top 10 talent who will play on what will likely be a top offense again with a good QB that loves him, but 1,950 yards and 16 TDs is nuts. I project about 1,450 yards and 12 TDs from him if he's healthy. So a great year, but numbers wise I'd consider that a big dip.

 

I think Taylor could match his 2021, which was only a slightly above average season for an all-pro (compared to Kupp's all time season). He started slow last year, and in the final 12 had 1,484 yards and 16 TDs (pace=2,100 yards, 23 TDs over 17 games). He probably comes down to earth a bit from that stretch he closed out 2021 with, but as the clear guy now in Indy I don't think there's a slow start so all in all it evens out and I'd expect 1,700 yards, 15 TDs. Bit harder to predict with a new QB, there's always chance Ryan is out of juice and the offense completely sputters out in which nobody will have nice numbers, but I think Ryan will be fine.

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12 hours ago, Hunter2_1 said:

Is it easier for RBs, statistically/historically? 

It probably is.

The issue for RBs has usually been injury, burn out, or no tread left on the tire where 3-5 years of crazy peak uses them up or gets them hurt.

  • TD 96-98
  • Holmes 01-03
  • Alexander 03-04
  • Henry 19-20

Even those RBs at peak had lots of fluctuation on TD totals.

Barry Sanders was a bit of a unicorn as he just went for 8 years in a row before slowing down a bit at the end. Even his 11 game season was 1100 yards rushing.

Jim Brown was just a cheat code since he was bigger than many lineman at the time.

Eric Dickerson was crazy for about 7 years with a trade and a strike thrown in for 1987.

 

Its fair to say I'm not on a soapbox for Edge James but ignoring his injury recovery 2002 he was pretty much a 100 yards a game rushing back for years 1-3 and 5-7

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14 hours ago, RandyMossIsBoss said:

I expect pretty significant statistical regression from Kupp, but he still should be favored for an all-pro spot. He's a top 10 talent who will play on what will likely be a top offense again with a good QB that loves him, but 1,950 yards and 16 TDs is nuts. I project about 1,450 yards and 12 TDs from him if he's healthy. So a great year, but numbers wise I'd consider that a big dip.

 

I think Taylor could match his 2021, which was only a slightly above average season for an all-pro (compared to Kupp's all time season). He started slow last year, and in the final 12 had 1,484 yards and 16 TDs (pace=2,100 yards, 23 TDs over 17 games). He probably comes down to earth a bit from that stretch he closed out 2021 with, but as the clear guy now in Indy I don't think there's a slow start so all in all it evens out and I'd expect 1,700 yards, 15 TDs. Bit harder to predict with a new QB, there's always chance Ryan is out of juice and the offense completely sputters out in which nobody will have nice numbers, but I think Ryan will be fine.

100% agree

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I can see Taylor getting less rushing yards but more catches and receiving yards. Wentz ignored both Taylor and Hines in the short passing game. I don’t see Ryan doing the same thing. As for Kupp I voted slightly less that was one of the best WR seasons ever. It would be very hard to repeat that. He’s still going to put up solid numbers though.

Edited by Blackstar12
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So I guess in my mind I had 'slight regression' being still top 5 in yards, rec and TDs, maybe not even THE best this year. 'Significant' would be projecting previous seasons for him - so like 1000-1200, 8-12 TDs.

I went slight. 

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Taylor is going to have the better numbers than Kupp this season bc I think the Colts are still going to run the offense through him and have a better QB in Ryan so that will help. Kupp will be efficient and still come in the clutch when called upon. I think with a healthy Akers for a full season plus the addition of ARob and Higbee back with the continued emergence of Van and then a potential breakout for Tutu. Not to mention at some point OBJ will be back with the Rams that will not lead to a statistical big season by Kupp like last season. In the end though both guys will still be looked at as having another season where their impact is huge to their team in terms of success. I just think the Colts will once again have to lean heavily on Taylor where as the Rams wont have to lean heavily on Kupp unless they choose too or injuries happen to weapons and then all bets are off and Kupp will get a heavy dose again. But lets assume relative health for both teams.

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It was pretty clear that for whatever reason, Stafford didn't jive with Woods right away.
 

Then OBJ needed a few games.

 

So it was really a perfect storm for Kupp from a target perspective. Allen Robinson is probably going to explode in this offense, so that alone should lead to quite a bit of regression for Kupp statistically

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The Rams played 7 teams with 10+ losses last year (they went 7-0) 4 of them had 13+ losses.

Their schedule this year is one of the hardest I've ever seen (on paper of course, sometimes things change)

AFC West, Bills, Bucs, Packers, Cowboys, 49ers x2. I'm not sure how good the Saints O will be but their D is legit.

Maybe the Seahawks, Falcons, and Panthers will be bad again?

They might be a very tough 10-7 or 11-6 team but they might not have crazy stats this year.

 

I love the Kupp Robinson combo but I'm not sure they are both 1250 yard guys on that schedule. I could also see 1300 and 1000 in either direction.

The funny thing about last year is if the Texans gave any effort at all and Kupp played in the 4th he might have hit 2k for the year.

It was 38-0 after 3 and the Rams starters laughed on the sidelines while the Texans scored 22 in the remaining scrimmage.

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