2023 NFL Draft Prospects

[dll2000]

Jalen Carter #88 v. Florida 2022:

(This time the associated text is found under video clips)

https://youtube.com/clip/Ugkxm8jz-MT2yDrqy_row1EWqFTUGtrpYRtV

Dang ... That's good.  No complaints.    👀

https://youtube.com/clip/UgkxycM92bWHXvWsT_bfZJ6gQUaoLnWN-wtD

Okay.  We are two plays in and I am already thinking this is guy I want to draft.  Jinkies this guy is talented.

https://youtube.com/clip/UgkxwPHSNQSPixv4ix0SkKbGGjTxdG68UaXO

So year Clowney was drafted everyone said he got triple teamed every play.  Then I looked and I don't recall any triple teams.   That was what a triple team looks like for the people in the back.

https://youtube.com/clip/UgkxRV4rGMSGZyCowVcJeyh1abMfkDRUqc9y

He gets held here.  No call.  Replay edited out where hold looks even more egregious

https://youtube.com/clip/Ugkxm1OHRusbhivlrZ8ZPvDizrhsVRYAhJ4S

Gets in backfield and forces double freeing up other players.  

https://youtube.com/clip/Ugkx8WZv_Ndml12MO4gT9TKYMzsaahuPv-JL

Goodness.   This is one game. One game tape.  Same game.  Gets in backfield and wrecks play.

https://youtube.com/clip/UgkxKn6vqkfr5Xt1PBIi4-aH72zHGM4zORsE

Quick swim and in backfield.

Okay ... Do I even need to keep going at this point?  I am just going to watch rest rather than keep taking time to make clips and give my assessment from this film and a few other clips I have seen of him from someone else.  

Strengths:

1) He is awesome.

2) He is an elite athlete.

3) He is long and strong.

4) One on one and rested he seems like he wins vast majority of time.  

Weaknesses:

1) He plays a low percentage of snaps.  Looks like its around 50% or something.  When he is tired he loafs.  Seems to have low stamina. 

2) He can get moved on double teams and doesn't always anchor well.  I did see him do a good job of it on a short yardage play though.

3) He really doesn't have any moves other than bull and swim.  And his bull isn't perfect fundamentally.  Anderson is way ahead of him with his hands ability.

But it's almost a strength, I say that because he has a lot of room to get better and he is already awesome with just raw athletic ability.   

Conclusion:

Edge is more valuable than 3 tech.  A lot of people say it isn't in this scheme.  But I say scheme doesn't matter.  Edge is more rare and harder to find.  For exhibit A look at 2023 FAs available interior vs. exterior.

All things being near equal - you take the edge.  

That being said, based off 2 tapes, I take Carter.   

Anderson is a legit first round talent.  He has a nice ceiling.  But he also has some bust potential.   He is not a sure thing elite edge player based on college tape like I would say Von Miller was or Myles Garrett was or Terrell Suggs was.   I would say he is more Robert Quinn or Harold Landry comparable coming out of college - good but not a sure thing.

Aaron Donald was way more technically sound than Carter.   And Jones was bigger and stronger - but I think Carter is a better overall athlete than Jones.   

I think if he is motivated to be great - he can be.   This I can't know from film I don't have background - but this guy can be great.  He has to get in better shape and get better fundamentally - but you just can't teach that athleticism.  

If I think to myself when judging between two which guy do I think is going to be known has better NFL player in 6 or 7 years (barring injuries)?  I have to say hands down it is Carter.

I will eat my words if it turns out wrong.   But I think hands down Carter is the superior talent.  If I don't trade down I take Carter.

Maybe there are two more tapes that would change my mind.   Off those two game films.  Carter. 

 

Edited December 27, 2022 by dll2000
typo, another typo

[blkwdw13]

With just me watching highlights I thought that Anderson was schemed open to get to the QB, what I really think I mean is that he just had a lot of clear paths to the QB to often. I will say I am not qualified to say one way or the other on what his potential is so I defer to others in that area. But my top three draft picks for a top 3 pick are Anderson and Carter, a small trade down I would then go with Murphy, a larger trade down I would then have Wilson and a few others.

[dll2000]

15 hours ago, blkwdw13 said:

With just me watching highlights I thought that Anderson was schemed open to get to the QB, what I really think I mean is that he just had a lot of clear paths to the QB to often. I will say I am not qualified to say one way or the other on what his potential is so I defer to others in that area. But my top three draft picks for a top 3 pick are Anderson and Carter, a small trade down I would then go with Murphy, a larger trade down I would then have Wilson and a few others.

Alabama stunts a lot, which often gives him clear paths to QB. 

Anderson can win on his own though as well. He is really good with his hands.   Probably my biggest problem with Anderson at this time is if QB has room to step up at all, Anderson will end up way behind the QB which is worthless.  

The best guys bend their angle more toward QB than what he does.  I have seen a number of reps where if he tries to bend like Quinn does he just falls down.   And he doesn’t have power to just maul through a guy like Mack does. 

Based on what I have seen and I continue to watch a little more here and there, Carter is clearly the more talented player of the two for their respective positions.  

Where I worry about Carter is for whatever reason Georgia coaches don’t feel they can leave him on field for any extended period.  He gets rotated out like a second stringer even though he is best player on team.  He needs a new work out plan or something and needs to get in better shape.

 All Interior linemen except Donald and a few others rotate out because DL expends a lot of energy and these are large men.

That being said he needs to be able to play more snaps than what he does.  

[AZBearsFan]

2 hours ago, dll2000 said:

Where I worry about Carter is for whatever reason Georgia coaches don’t feel they can leave him on field for any extended period.  He gets rotated out like a second stringer even though he is best player on team.  He needs a new work out plan or something and needs to get in better shape.

He’s also got a bunch of super talented guys behind him on the depth chart. Might be simply a case of bringing guys in waves to keep them fresh. 

[blkwdw13]

11 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

He’s also got a bunch of super talented guys behind him on the depth chart. Might be simply a case of bringing guys in waves to keep them fresh. 

This is what I think also, it was the same with Walker and Davis last year. 

[beardown3231]

5 hours ago, dll2000 said:

Alabama stunts a lot, which often gives him clear paths to QB. 

Anderson can win on his own though as well. He is really good with his hands.   Probably my biggest problem with Anderson at this time is if QB has room to step up at all, Anderson will end up way behind the QB which is worthless.  

The best guys bend their angle more toward QB than what he does.  I have seen a number of reps where if he tries to bend like Quinn does he just falls down.   And he doesn’t have power to just maul through a guy like Mack does. 

Based on what I have seen and I continue to watch a little more here and there, Carter is clearly the more talented player of the two for their respective positions.  

Where I worry about Carter is for whatever reason Georgia coaches don’t feel they can leave him on field for any extended period.  He gets rotated out like a second stringer even though he is best player on team.  He needs a new work out plan or something and needs to get in better shape.

 All Interior linemen except Donald and a few others rotate out because DL expends a lot of energy and these are large men.

That being said he needs to be able to play more snaps than what he does.  

He may not be 100%. He missed 3 games earlier in the year with an MCL injury

[AZBearsFan]

Certainly not an Illinois homer, but I think CB Devon Witherspoon seems like a great fit for what Flus is looking for in the secondary. 

[Madmike90]

50 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

Certainly not an Illinois homer, but I think CB Devon Witherspoon seems like a great fit for what Flus is looking for in the secondary. 

If we can trade down enough to get the picks to help in the trenches and at receiver first then I would love him…intensity and physicality we need at DB.

[AZBearsFan]

1 hour ago, Madmike90 said:

If we can trade down enough to get the picks to help in the trenches and at receiver first then I would love him…intensity and physicality we need at DB.

This is absolutely in a trade down scenario or at the top of round 3 were he still to be available (all the draft sims have him as a mid round pick but many of the draft analysts seem to have him as one of the top 5 CBs). I want us to go nuts on both lines in FA and at the top of the draft.

Just like the player and the fit. 

[dll2000]

Do a draft simulation for 7 rounds and trade #2 versus drafting at #2.

Unless Carter is near Aaron Donald or Anderson is near Von Miller it seems the trade down from there is always the more valuable choice.

Assuming you get recent historical value for the trade.

 

[blkwdw13]

3 minutes ago, dll2000 said:

Do a draft simulation for 7 rounds and trade #2 versus drafting at #2.

Unless Carter is near Aaron Donald or Anderson is near Von Miller it seems the trade down from there is always the more valuable choice.

Assuming you get recent historical value for the trade.

 

The thing I noticed with those draft simulators; esprcially the PFF one, is that they favor the trade down over drafting a player.

[Madmike90]

19 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

This is absolutely in a trade down scenario or at the top of round 3 were he still to be available (all the draft sims have him as a mid round pick but many of the draft analysts seem to have him as one of the top 5 CBs). I want us to go nuts on both lines in FA and at the top of the draft.

Just like the player and the fit. 

I see him going late 1-mid 2 right now but as always with DBs the testing will determine a lot of where he goes…if he runs high 4.5 he could be mid 2-early 3 depending on team specific traits.

[StLunatic88]

1 hour ago, AZBearsFan said:

This is absolutely in a trade down scenario or at the top of round 3 were he still to be available (all the draft sims have him as a mid round pick but many of the draft analysts seem to have him as one of the top 5 CBs). I want us to go nuts on both lines in FA and at the top of the draft.

Just like the player and the fit. 

I personally have him ranked nearly a round higher than that. I actually was looking at him in that Colts swap scenario where they end up at #3/4, and we get their high 2nd for our late 2nd, plus whatever else.

Im sure many wouldnt like to see it, but a first 2 picks of Carter/Witherspoon would turn this defense Nasty (along with free agent help in the trenches)

[RTD]

On 12/18/2022 at 8:41 AM, dll2000 said:

Alabama stunts a lot, which often gives him clear paths to QB. 

Anderson can win on his own though as well. He is really good with his hands.   Probably my biggest problem with Anderson at this time is if QB has room to step up at all, Anderson will end up way behind the QB which is worthless.  

The best guys bend their angle more toward QB than what he does.  I have seen a number of reps where if he tries to bend like Quinn does he just falls down.   And he doesn’t have power to just maul through a guy like Mack does. 

Based on what I have seen and I continue to watch a little more here and there, Carter is clearly the more talented player of the two for their respective positions.  

Where I worry about Carter is for whatever reason Georgia coaches don’t feel they can leave him on field for any extended period.  He gets rotated out like a second stringer even though he is best player on team.  He needs a new work out plan or something and needs to get in better shape.

 All Interior linemen except Donald and a few others rotate out because DL expends a lot of energy and these are large men.

That being said he needs to be able to play more snaps than what he does.  

In trying to understand Coach Smart of UGA and his decisions, lets remember he chose to play a qb that will never play a down in the NFL over Justin Fields, making Fields transfer to OSU. As for the DL rotation, UGA does thing because that is what they did at Bama when he coached there. 

[AZBearsFan]

2 hours ago, StLunatic88 said:

I personally have him ranked nearly a round higher than that. I actually was looking at him in that Colts swap scenario where they end up at #3/4, and we get their high 2nd for our late 2nd, plus whatever else.

Im sure many wouldnt like to see it, but a first 2 picks of Carter/Witherspoon would turn this defense Nasty (along with free agent help in the trenches)

 

4 hours ago, Madmike90 said:

I see him going late 1-mid 2 right now but as always with DBs the testing will determine a lot of where he goes…if he runs high 4.5 he could be mid 2-early 3 depending on team specific traits.

I have him in the late 1 to mid 2 area too personally, but all of the draft sim apps have him ranked outside the top 100 prospects. Not sure whether they’re just out of date ratings-wise (they update draft order constantly) or if I’m missing something.