2023 NFL Draft Prospects

[AZBearsFan]

4 minutes ago, Sugashane said:

Really wish NO had their 1st so we could explore trading with them. Might be able to snag Michael Thomas to get that #1 WR for Fields. I know the dead money would suck badly for them but if they are tanking and have a potential franchise QB then it could be worth it, especially if they want Dalton to stay and take the beating for him one more year.

Crazy fact - the last time NO drafted a QB in the top two rounds was when they drafted Manning. ARCHIE Manning in 1971.

I’ve always been a Michael Thomas fan. IMO there’s a very real chance they just release him this offseason. Unless I’m reading this wrong they can cut or trade him after this year for < $3M in dead money and a $25M cap savings. He’d be a risky add given his injury history the past 2 years, but he’s still gonna be just 30 next year and is a very proven 1 when healthy. That injury history coupled with his remaining cap hits ($28.2M next year, $27.5M in 2024) also make it pretty unlikely they get anything huge in trade for him. With that said, if you trade for him then restructure by adding a year or two non-guaranteed to the end you avoid a FA bidding war post-release too. I’m not sure you can find a higher ceiling addition to our WR group next year. 

[Sugashane]

9 minutes ago, Bigbear72 said:

Was a Michael Thomas fan but he is the new Julio Jones/AJ Green. I don't think we will ever see the old Michael Thomas again. I'm gonna pass on that one.

That's fair, he looked good this year but if he can't stay healthy it won't matter. Of course a physical would be pending too though. Even if it isn't my money I'd be practical with that much. lol  

Realistically I kind of hope we get Mike Gesicki and run more 12 personnel. Kmet as the #2 option TE is a win and Gesicki is the move end we need. That helps weather the storm for a bad FA WR class too. Fields gets likely the top receiving threat in FA

 

2 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

I’ve always been a Michael Thomas fan. IMO there’s a very real chance they just release him this offseason. Unless I’m reading this wrong they can cut or trade him after this year for < $3M in dead money and a $25M cap savings. He’d be a risky add given his injury history the past 2 years, but he’s still gonna be just 30 next year and is a very proven 1 when healthy. That injury history coupled with his remaining cap hits ($28.2M next year, $27.5M in 2024) also make it pretty unlikely they get anything huge in trade for him. With that said, if you trade for him then restructure by adding a year or two non-guaranteed to the end you avoid a FA bidding war post-release too. I’m not sure you can find a higher ceiling addition to our WR group next year. 

I think they would have a dead cap of $25.4 mil and would only save a bit under $3 mil for pre-June 1st cut or trade in 2023.

That being said as a ceiling you're not getting higher this upcoming year, likely not in 2023 either, because barring off-field issues there is no way in hell Higgins sees the market.

I was kinda hoping for a tag-and-trade with Metcalf in SEA before he got his extension too but that was also going to be dependent of SEA and Geno sucking. Then everything might have to be blown up and he becomes a tool for the rebuild. Clearly I underestimated the hell out of them. lol

[AZBearsFan]

5 hours ago, Sugashane said:

I was kinda hoping for a tag-and-trade with Metcalf in SEA before he got his extension too but that was also going to be dependent of SEA and Geno sucking. Then everything might have to be blown up and he becomes a tool for the rebuild. Clearly I underestimated the hell out of them. lol

I bet Seattle to finish with the league’s worst record at halftime of our preseason game against them. Preseason grain of salt was considered for sure, but they looked so bad. Like complete disarray on a rudderless ship who was choosing between Drew Lock and pre-2022 Geno Smith at QB.

Needless to say, I’ve been bamboozled!

[Sugashane]

1 hour ago, AZBearsFan said:

I bet Seattle to finish with the league’s worst record at halftime of our preseason game against them. Preseason grain of salt was considered for sure, but they looked so bad. Like complete disarray on a rudderless ship who was choosing between Drew Lock and pre-2022 Geno Smith at QB.

Needless to say, I’ve been bamboozled!

I think I had them as 2nd or 3rd worst, with HOU being the worst and CAR being right there with them. Geno has made me look like a damn fool too man so I'll eat crow right along with ya.

 

[Epyon]

23 hours ago, Madmike90 said:

Tippman is a really interesting prospect...nice addition to a position we need.

Yeah I like Tippman to compete for the starting job immediately if we don't bring in another FA for center, but honestly, even if we did fill center, his athleticism and size make me think he's a guy who you just pick up and plug him in wherever you have a hole, be it guard or Center  (and honestly size wise isn't he big enough to  be OT?)

[AZBearsFan]

2 hours ago, Epyon said:

Yeah I like Tippman to compete for the starting job immediately if we don't bring in another FA for center, but honestly, even if we did fill center, his athleticism and size make me think he's a guy who you just pick up and plug him in wherever you have a hole, be it guard or Center  (and honestly size wise isn't he big enough to  be OT?)

Most projections I’ve seen for Tippmann have him as a mid round pick. I think we address the position 1 of 2 ways this offseason:

1) Sign a sure fire long term starter at the position; or

2) Roll with Patrick and a rookie and let the rookie legitimately compete for the job in 2023 before likely taking it in 2024 if not sooner

Personally, I’d like to see us go for more of a sure thing at C. I think it’s that important of a need. There is a 3rd option where we sign an older strong C like Rodney Hudson as a bridge player and still draft a mid round guy to take over when ready, but I think that’s least likely of the 3. I definitely don’t think coming back with just Patrick/Mustipher/Kramer is really an option. 

[Sugashane]

9 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

Most projections I’ve seen for Tippmann have him as a mid round pick. I think we address the position 1 of 2 ways this offseason:

1) Sign a sure fire long term starter at the position; or

2) Roll with Patrick and a rookie and let the rookie legitimately compete for the job in 2023 before likely taking it in 2024 if not sooner

Personally, I’d like to see us go for more of a sure thing at C. I think it’s that important of a need. There is a 3rd option where we sign an older strong C like Rodney Hudson as a bridge player and still draft a mid round guy to take over when ready, but I think that’s least likely of the 3. I definitely don’t think coming back with just Patrick/Mustipher/Kramer is really an option. 

While I hope we get Pocic we haven't seen what Poles goes out to value yet outside of looking for a 3T with talent, so I am trying not to get my hopes up too much. KC was willing to make a deal to get Brown so I feel pretty confident about his desires for a high end OT but IDK about the C position. Humphrey as drafted in the 2nd last year by KC and Reiter was a cheap signing that got a few years of starts, so I'm conflicted with that.

With how quickly they let Jones compete for the LT spot and take ownership of it I can definitely see them taking a C like Tippmann and letting him compete immediately. While Patrick was a signing by Poles he was signed for an AAV of only $4 mil per year. That doesn't really compare to a commitment for a top 3 round pick IMO. So if the rookie plays at a comparable level then I think he gets the nod.

Regardless this should be an exciting offseason, I doubt I'll get as excited as I did with the drafting of Fields and Jenkins back to back but I hope so. lol

[AZBearsFan]

44 minutes ago, Sugashane said:

While I hope we get Pocic we haven't seen what Poles goes out to value yet outside of looking for a 3T with talent, so I am trying not to get my hopes up too much. KC was willing to make a deal to get Brown so I feel pretty confident about his desires for a high end OT but IDK about the C position. Humphrey as drafted in the 2nd last year by KC and Reiter was a cheap signing that got a few years of starts, so I'm conflicted with that.

With how quickly they let Jones compete for the LT spot and take ownership of it I can definitely see them taking a C like Tippmann and letting him compete immediately. While Patrick was a signing by Poles he was signed for an AAV of only $4 mil per year. That doesn't really compare to a commitment for a top 3 round pick IMO. So if the rookie plays at a comparable level then I think he gets the nod.

Regardless this should be an exciting offseason, I doubt I'll get as excited as I did with the drafting of Fields and Jenkins back to back but I hope so. lol

Taking a C in round 2-4 instead of using FA money on it is totally fine with me. There are a few I think could compete to be day 1 starters in this draft. 

Agreed on an exciting offseason one way or another. I’m already excited for next season. Now… don’t do to me what the White Sox have done for my long term optimism, Poles! 

[dll2000]

I may change my mind, but here are my thoughts today.  This is assuming  we have number 2 pick.

Doing mocks we get the one elite player in Will Anderson or Jalen Carter, but rest of draft and future looks nothing like it would with a trade down.

IF you believe Will Anderson is an elite pass rusher you take him.   I don’t know how I feel about him at this point, I haven’t watched him enough yet.  But point is looking at FA edge pass rushers they are never there in prime.  You have to trade for them like we did with Mack and the cost is really high in terms of draft capital and money combined.   They are just too hard to find outside top of draft.    

IF you think Will has some flaws and may not be elite then you trade the pick.  

I don’t want to be sitting there with Clelin Ferrell.  I want to be pretty sure Will is a stud or I am trading out. 

I know I said draft Carter before because he seems a more likely hit, but when you try to fill edge in FA you really can’t very well. You can fill interior DL with money. 

Now let’s assume Seattle has number 3 and Lions have number 4.   Lions and other QB teams may be thinking they don’t have to trade up. Lions can sit at 4 at get their QB or they can trade with Seattle or play us against each other for better deal knowing we aren’t taking QB.  

I say F that.   If teams are gaming us we have to be prepared to take Stroud and force that trade.   At least one other team will want him.   We won’t get stuck with Queen of Spades in Hearts.  But we have to be willing play the game all the way. 

I know no one has ever done it before, but who cares.  SF gamed us with a fake trade offers.  If we didn’t bite they could have got same result by simply taking Trubisky (assuming they knew we wanted Trubisky).  We know Cleveland wanted Trubisky too and they had tons of picks to burn at time. But even if they went Watson they could have traded with someone for him.  Mahomes was thought of as number 4 in that draft.   Taking Trubisky would have got them a trade with someone.  

Now Jalen Carter does make it tough.  If he is Aaron Donald or even Warren Sapp that is really hard to pass on.  

Whatever happens should be most interesting draft in a long time going in if we have number 2.  

Now taking Trubisky and Fields turned out interesting. But we didn’t know that was going to happen going in. 

My lifetime all time favorite Bears draft was the Fields draft.  Only time in my life Bears drafted way I wanted almost across entire board.  

Edited December 10, 2022 by dll2000
Typo

[Bigbear72]

2 hours ago, dll2000 said:

I may change my mind, but here are my thoughts today.  This is assuming  we have number 2 pick.

Doing mocks we get the one elite player in Will Anderson or Jalen Carter, but rest of draft and future looks nothing like it would with a trade down.

IF you believe Will Anderson is an elite pass rusher you take him.   I don’t know how I feel about him at this point, I haven’t watched him enough yet.  But point is looking at FA edge pass rushers they are never there in prime.  You have to trade for them like we did with Mack and the cost is really high in terms of draft capital and money combined.   They are just too hard to find outside top of draft.    

IF you think Will has some flaws and may not be elite then you trade the pick.  

I don’t want to be sitting there with Clelin Ferrell.  I want to be pretty sure Will is a stud or I am trading out. 

I know I said draft Carter before because he seems a more likely hit, but when you try to fill edge in FA you really can’t very well. You can fill interior DL with money. 

Now let’s assume Seattle has number 3 and Lions have number 4.   Lions and other QB teams may be thinking they don’t have to trade up. Lions can sit at 4 at get their QB or they can trade with Seattle or play us against each other for better deal knowing we aren’t taking QB.  

I say F that.   If teams are gaming us we have to be prepared to take Stroud and force that trade.   At least one other team will want him.   We won’t get stuck with Queen of Spades in Hearts.  But we have to be willing play the game all the way. 

I know no one has ever done it before, but who cares.  SF gamed us with a fake trade offers.  If we didn’t bite they could have got same result by simply taking Trubisky (assuming they knew we wanted Trubisky).  We know Cleveland wanted Trubisky too and they had tons of picks to burn at time. But even if they went Watson they could have traded with someone for him.  Mahomes was thought of as number 4 in that draft.   Taking Trubisky would have got them a trade with someone.  

Now Jalen Carter does make it tough.  If he is Aaron Donald or even Warren Sapp that is really hard to pass on.  

Whatever happens should be most interesting draft in a long time going in if we have number 2.  

Now taking Trubisky and Fields turned out interesting. But we didn’t know that was going to happen going in. 

My lifetime all time favorite Bears draft was the Fields draft.  Only time in my life Bears drafted way I wanted almost across entire board.  

I don’t thank it will come to that. There are enough teams out there that will be afraid of missing the opportunity to take their guy. If we were talking about one or two teams that needed a qb then that’s different but none of the other teams know who will be trying to move up and who won’t. They have to shoot there shot which is why offers tend to be so inflated.

[AZBearsFan]

2 hours ago, dll2000 said:

I say F that.   If teams are gaming us we have to be prepared to take Stroud and force that trade.   At least one other team will want him.   We won’t get stuck with Queen of Spades in Hearts.  But we have to be willing play the game all the way.

Ok say you take Stroud and plan to sell him to the highest bidder… don’t you run a very real risk that teams know you don’t actually want to keep him and lowball you? What if those trade proposals post-Stroud selection are less than those while you’re on the clock with teams calling your bluff? We won’t have the option of keeping him to leverage like SD did when they drafted Eli Manning because we have Fields. What do we do if after taking Stroud if we get a HUGE offer for Fields? Do you turn down 3 1s and then some for Fields in that scenario and start over with Stroud? If you’re taking Stroud you have to be prepared for that scenario too if you’re Poles, and now that Fields has shown to most he might actually be the guy, can you imagine if we then traded him away for prospects as fallout for some draft day game and he became that somewhere else? I just can’t see any scenario where Poles wants to put himself in that position. I think the only way Poles drafts a QB at 2 is if he’s moving on from Fields after this season, and I think the likelihood of that is practically zero. 

[Madmike90]

 

Really underrated benefit of finishing with the 2nd overall pick...being able to form relationships with guys who might not get drafted out of the Shrine game could be a way to find another Sanborn.

[dll2000]

15 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

Ok say you take Stroud and plan to sell him to the highest bidder… don’t you run a very real risk that teams know you don’t actually want to keep him and lowball you? What if those trade proposals post-Stroud selection are less than those while you’re on the clock with teams calling your bluff? We won’t have the option of keeping him to leverage like SD did when they drafted Eli Manning because we have Fields. What do we do if after taking Stroud if we get a HUGE offer for Fields? Do you turn down 3 1s and then some for Fields in that scenario and start over with Stroud? If you’re taking Stroud you have to be prepared for that scenario too if you’re Poles, and now that Fields has shown to most he might actually be the guy, can you imagine if we then traded him away for prospects as fallout for some draft day game and he became that somewhere else? I just can’t see any scenario where Poles wants to put himself in that position. I think the only way Poles drafts a QB at 2 is if he’s moving on from Fields after this season, and I think the likelihood of that is practically zero. 

I don’t trade Fields under any circumstance.  Or it would have to be an insanely good trade.

I am betting there are at least two teams that want Stroud enough to bid against each other so I can’t get overly low balled.  

My fear is teams just skipping over us and leaving us out of any trade equation knowing we are taking non-qb. 

I think a trade with Detroit drafting 3 or 4 is optimal.  Pick up a pick and we still get either Carter or Williams. Like SF did with Solomon Thomas (who busted but no one knew that at time).  

But Detriot doesn’t necessarily have to trade with us at 3 or maybe even 4 if we don’t take the QB.  

They only will if they think another team will move ahead of them.  Just like we did because John Lynch bluffed Pace with a fake other team offer.    

But if it doesn’t get done in time or they think we are bluffing, you have to force someone’s hand. 

It is a very unlikely scenario.  If at least two teams want Stroud and we are at 2 it very likely gets done ahead of draft.

  I just prepare contingencies.  

[dll2000]

I mean nobody traded with SF at 2 before 2017 draft.  They got it done with us at last minute during draft.   That is what I worry about.

Everyone was gaming draft that year because that class was a little iffy in many minds and people were waiting for next year.

People did that last year.  

Many want to draft a QB this year.  At least one of top two.

Even in that year Cleveland AND Chicago wanted MT.  And I think KC did as well.  

Cleveland just rolled dice they could get him a bit later past Chicago and lost.  They ended up taking Kizer because they didn’t trust Watson or Mahomes. KC was okay with Mahomes or MT.

Watson and Mahomes still went for first round trades.

Point is 2nd best QB in this years draft someone will want.  I am banking on that.  The consensus is Stroud. 

I think SF could have banked on at least two teams wanting MT Or Watson as well if they chose to take one and force a trade.   If Chicago called their bluff they would have been stuck with Solomon Thomas alone and not got extra picks from Chicago.

That is bad business.  We can’t make that mistake.

[AZBearsFan]

1 hour ago, dll2000 said:

I am betting there are at least two teams that want Stroud enough to bid against each other so I can’t get overly low balled.  

If that’s the case (which I also suspect) then I can’t see those teams taking the chance they try to call a bluff on us only to have someone else trade up with us to 2 and get Stroud instead. If he’s your guy I don’t think you mess around like that.

First thing first though - let’s actually get the #2 pick first. We’ll be down to pick 3 after today unless Denver somehow beats KC.