Blow it up! Off-season wishes/ideas

[ravishingone]

Apparently if Brady does not return, his dead cap hit charge is $35 million.

I'm not a cap expert, but it sure feels like the only way to truly upgrade at QB is thru the draft.  I have zero faith Bowles can build a top 10 offense without Brady.  Get ready for Tyrod Taylor or Flacco type QB signed this offseason.

Edited January 17, 2023 by ravishingone

[YoungBucs15]

1 hour ago, ravishingone said:

Apparently if Brady does not return, his dead cap hit charge is $35 million.

I'm not a cap expert, but it sure feels like the only way to truly upgrade at QB is thru the draft.  I have zero faith Bowles can build a top 10 offense without Brady.  Get ready for Tyrod Taylor or Flacco type QB signed this offseason.

Right now if none of these players resign with us, here's what we're giving up in dead cap:

Brady 35M

Lavonte 6.8M

Hicks 5M

Julio 3.4M

Gholston 2.4

Around 52 M in dead cap space

This puts us at about 270M total cap and the projected next year is around 220M.  So Licht has some work ahead of him with restructures.

 

I do think that if Brady is going to retire he will get a new contract extension and then retire 6/1.

Have to feel that we make a decision on Donovan, cutting him would save 10M, trade is 17M.

Fournette is about 3.5M if cut, don't think we could trade him but would be 8.5M

Brate is 2M if cut, trade is 4.9M

 

There are some interesting options out there that would be that band-aid if we don't believe in Trask for next year that would be somewhat cheap.

Heinicke, Brissett, or even bring back Gabbert to name a few.

[ravishingone]

7 minutes ago, YoungBucs15 said:

Right now if none of these players resign with us, here's what we're giving up in dead cap:

Brady 35M

Lavonte 6.8M

Hicks 5M

Julio 3.4M

Gholston 2.4

Around 52 M in dead cap space

This puts us at about 270M total cap and the projected next year is around 220M.  So Licht has some work ahead of him with restructures.

 

I do think that if Brady is going to retire he will get a new contract extension and then retire 6/1.

Have to feel that we make a decision on Donovan, cutting him would save 10M, trade is 17M.

Fournette is about 3.5M if cut, don't think we could trade him but would be 8.5M

Brate is 2M if cut, trade is 4.9M

 

There are some interesting options out there that would be that band-aid if we don't believe in Trask for next year that would be somewhat cheap.

Heinicke, Brissett, or even bring back Gabbert to name a few.

No problem with any of those QB names.  My issue is drafting Qb and hoping Bowles and his OC can develop him.  Those names get them no closer to a SB then Trask.  Hypothetically, what if they really like Hooker and want him to essentially red shirt next season.  I have zero evidence Bowles can develop a young Qb or quite frankly a top 10 offense.  

[BucsDraftGeek47]

1 hour ago, YoungBucs15 said:

Right now if none of these players resign with us, here's what we're giving up in dead cap:

Brady 35M

Lavonte 6.8M

Hicks 5M

Julio 3.4M

Gholston 2.4

Around 52 M in dead cap space

This puts us at about 270M total cap and the projected next year is around 220M.  So Licht has some work ahead of him with restructures.

 

I do think that if Brady is going to retire he will get a new contract extension and then retire 6/1.

Have to feel that we make a decision on Donovan, cutting him would save 10M, trade is 17M.

Fournette is about 3.5M if cut, don't think we could trade him but would be 8.5M

Brate is 2M if cut, trade is 4.9M

 

There are some interesting options out there that would be that band-aid if we don't believe in Trask for next year that would be somewhat cheap.

Heinicke, Brissett, or even bring back Gabbert to name a few.

Yikes

The way its looking rn, we really might as well just tank next year 

[YoungBucs15]

Figured that I would move the talk about coaching staff here from the Wildcard game thread as they're more apart of this conversation.  I do think it's fair to judge Bowles off the last 4 years and not just this 1. In reality he didn't take over that much more becoming the HC from DC.  If anything he became even more responsible for the defense with Arians leaving. 

Defense

Year 1 - 15th in yards, 29th in pts, 7th in rush TD's, 1st in rush yards, 1st in rush ypa, 30th in pass yards, 25th in pass TD's,  and 17th in INT's

Year 2 - 6th in yards, 8th in pts, 1st in rush TD's, 1st in rush yards, 1st in rush ypa, 21st in pass yards, 20th in pass TD's, and 7th in INT's

Year 3 - 13th in yards, 5th in pts, 5th in rush TD's, 3rd in rush yards, 15th in rush ypa, 21st in pass yards, 13th in pass TD's, and 8th in INT's

Year 4 - 9th in yards, 13th in pts, 10th in rush TD's, 15th in rush yards, 19th in rush ypa, 9th in pass yards, 28th in pass TD's, and 24th in INT's

While there was plenty of issues with the offense, Bowles has been responsible for the defense for the last 4 years and yes there are injuries but there's no reason to fall off this bad and consistently look below average with essentially the same core. The two most concerning parts of it all to me is the appearance of lack of discipline the moment Arians left and there's no repairing that and shouldn't have been an issue for this group.  Secondly this is the same that happened to the Jets.

 

[eggybucsfan31]

I just don't see what just firing Leftwich/the offensive staff achieves if Bowles is back. 

What halfway decent OC is going to agree to take the job knowing damn well that Bowles is most likely a lame duck, even with Brady in tow? 

[YoungBucs15]

31 minutes ago, eggybucsfan31 said:

I just don't see what just firing Leftwich/the offensive staff achieves if Bowles is back. 

What halfway decent OC is going to agree to take the job knowing damn well that Bowles is most likely a lame duck, even with Brady in tow? 

Honestly the only one that jumps out to me would be Bill O'Brien.  Gets him back in the NFL with someone that knows his system in Brady and can replace Bowles if and when he gets fired.

[ravishingone]

6 minutes ago, YoungBucs15 said:

Honestly the only one that jumps out to me would be Bill O'Brien.  Gets him back in the NFL with someone that knows his system in Brady and can replace Bowles if and when he gets fired.

This is my concern.  What is Bowles sales pitch in hiring an OC?  My team did win the division, albeit the worst division in football with a losing record.  Tom Brady MIGHT return. Otherwise, 35 million in dead cap, but Trask still on the roster.  I think at best he hires a position coach in the Mike Sullivan pedigree when Schiano was hired. 

[YoungBucs15]

3 minutes ago, ravishingone said:

This is my concern.  What is Bowles sales pitch in hiring an OC?  My team did win the division, albeit the worst division in football with a losing record.  Tom Brady MIGHT return. Otherwise, 35 million in dead cap, but Trask still on the roster.  I think at best he hires a position coach in the Mike Sullivan pedigree when Schiano was hired. 

Very true.  I'm wondering why we have been connected back to Monken though, even before this weekend.

[YoungBucs15]

Was sitting here and thinking about the OL and what the future could look like.  I have seen people float the idea of Wirfs moving to LT with Smith being cut and not bringing in a FA next year for the line we would look like this:

Wirfs - Leverett - Jensen - Hainsey - Godeke

While it's definitely not ideal I think it works out and could have potential.  It puts Godeke back to his natural position, Hainsey was serviceable at center and was really training to be a guard until Jensen went down.  And really I was surprised by Leverett and his play and believe that it becomes even better with Jensen next to him.  This is not saying we don't draft someone as it's a huge need but I don't think it's 1st round need.

[ravishingone]

30 minutes ago, YoungBucs15 said:

Very true.  I'm wondering why we have been connected back to Monken though, even before this weekend.

I think it is wishful thinking by PR.  So Brady might come back is the hook.  The reality is the next OC could be one and done.  The next OC will be taking the job not knowing who the starter will be and might be in salary cap trouble if the QB you want chooses not to come back.  I just do not see how Monken or BOB has interest.  If I'm BOB or Monken, I would just only want to chat about being the HC.  I have a lot more control on my destiny.

[YoungBucs15]

7 minutes ago, ravishingone said:

I think it is wishful thinking by PR.  So Brady might come back is the hook.  The reality is the next OC could be one and done.  The next OC will be taking the job not knowing who the starter will be and might be in salary cap trouble if the QB you want chooses not to come back.  I just do not see how Monken or BOB has interest.  If I'm BOB or Monken, I would just only want to chat about being the HC.  I have a lot more control on my destiny.

And that's why I think that if we are not 100% behind Bowles for the long haul we need to fire him now.  It becomes easier to pitch to someone the idea that there is going to be a rough year next year, however, use that as an evaluation year for the talent on the team and rebuild it in the manner they see fit.  

[ravishingone]

2 minutes ago, YoungBucs15 said:

And that's why I think that if we are not 100% behind Bowles for the long haul we need to fire him now.  It becomes easier to pitch to someone the idea that there is going to be a rough year next year, however, use that as an evaluation year for the talent on the team and rebuild it in the manner they see fit.  

No argument here, totally agree.  That Brady presser made me believe his return to Tampa is remote at best.  

[RedandPewterReturns]

I honestly do not know why anyone is clamoring or hoping Brady returns. The Bucs FO and ownership shouldn't want him either. 

The guy is afraid to get hit yet still wants to play at 45? Even Aikman said on some of those balls he let go early he needs to hang in there and take the hit. The NFL game is much faster and only getting faster in terms of the front 4 being insanely athletic. Bosa, Parsons, young, etc. Defenses are loading up front to pressure the QB. Even the best OL's have to make sacrifices every Offseason. Bucs unit ranked 12th without Jensen. Not bad - but Brady's lack of pocket movement and escapability hurts. Everyone gloats about SF O-Line - yet how many times did Purdy have to dodge pressures last weekend? It's never perfect nor will it ever. As he ages - it's going to get worse. 

Some people say Brady may not want to retire going out on a sour note. Well anyone who's watched all 18 games can see the weaker arm. Manning in his last year could make the throw time to time but more times than not he was displaying a weaker arm that got worse as the year went on and he had neck surgery a few years back and still played well for a few years until he couldn't. 

Lets be real  - Brady is 45 and will be 46 to start next year. His arm isn't the same nor is his pocket presence and ability to stand tall in the pocket. He's missing too many receivers short and not getting through reads bc he wants to get rid of the ball ASAP. Outside of a few bones - Defenses read brady and the offense like a book. Sure, Leftwich plays a part in this and did himself no favors and I'm glad to restart the offense with someone new along with new positional coaches. However - Brady owns the poor execution and throws/lack of mobility. 

Its crazy to want this guy back after seeing pure decline for another year. Our ownership really has no faith in Licht to rebuild this roster and find a new QB, do they? 

[RedandPewterReturns]

23 hours ago, ravishingone said:

I think it is wishful thinking by PR.  So Brady might come back is the hook.  The reality is the next OC could be one and done.  The next OC will be taking the job not knowing who the starter will be and might be in salary cap trouble if the QB you want chooses not to come back.  I just do not see how Monken or BOB has interest.  If I'm BOB or Monken, I would just only want to chat about being the HC.  I have a lot more control on my destiny.

BOB is already connected to New England - Bellichik is 70 and has more of an opportunity to take over there in the near future. Brady after this season isn't attracting any hot OC candidate to leave a secure job. Monken is highly compensated at Georgia with job security. I'm not sure he's giving that up. However pewter report somehow has inside information that more times than not - hold merit. 

to be honest - I can't see Bowles putting together a solid staff offensively. With all our cap issues and losing a lot of players - I can honestly see this regime setting up Bowles to be a lame duck head coach. Immediately I can see Brate, D. Smith, Mason, and Fournett cut - all guys where we'd save some cap money. Along with that - I also can't see a scenario where David, Gholston, Hicks, Nelson, Bunting, return. Of these 3 - Ryan, Neal, and edwards - maybe two return. Atleast one will be back on a veteran deal. I think Nassibl will be back as well. 

I'm only confident Dean will be franchised tag to avoid him hitting the market. I don't see any other candidate worthy of that. 

Signing Wirfs and Winfield should be a priority as well - But extending them as I believe the cap hell we're in with all that dead money spread out isn't that bad in 2024. 2023 is going to be a tough year to watch in my opinion.