Cwood is a nerd and so are all the Packer Favorite Prospects: 2023 Draft Discussion Thread

[R T]

2 minutes ago, Brit Pack said:

I think this is mute point anyway. No way is JSN there at 15 or even 13.

Minimum we would have to trade up with Philly at 10 to get over the Titans and Texans. That would for sure cost us our 3rd rounder and maybe even a little more than that.

So unless we cushty with trading up we ain't getting mo JSN

I'm on the other end of that, I think there is a good chance he is there at 15 and he isn't the top player on the Packers board anyways. 

[incognito_man]

8 hours ago, Arthur Penske said:

JSN had 347 yards and 3 TDS in the rose bowl and I read he’s a slot guy?

 

He's definitely a slot guy. OSU was really creative in getting him free releases and slot work. He's an elite slot WR prospect, but he's a slot.

I still don't see it with him. Would much rather spend a late pick on a slot WR. I don't see anything that makes me want to use a top 15 pick when we have Watson and Doubs (who our HC just compared to Davante).

I'd be really really surprised to see us use that pick at WR. Especially a slot.

Edited April 6, 2023 by incognito_man

[HokieHigh]

1 minute ago, incognito_man said:

He's definitely a slot guy. OSU was really creative in getting him free releases and slot work. He's an elite slot WR prospect, but he's a slot.

I still don't see it with him. Would much rather spend a late pick on a slot WR. I don't see anything that makes me want to use a top 15 pick when we have Watson and Doubs (who our HC just compared to Davante).

I'd be really really surprised to see us use that pick at WR. Especially a slot.

Ya i think we need to trade up or down, the value at 15 just is not great for our needs

[PackFan13]

24 minutes ago, craig said:

Some risk that we overrate Doubs?  He was good... for a rookie.  He was good.... for a 3rd-day pick.  But he's not a blazer.  He doesn't have great capacity on contested catches.  And I thought there were a lot of times when he was single-covered but he still didn't get himself open.  Hopefully he'll be 100% healthy, and he's not a rookie anymore, and he'll get more opportunity.  So, hopefully he'll really emerge.  

But I do admit wondering whether accepting a guy like Doubs as your #2 WR is kinda the landscape where 10-loss teams in the NFL live?  Getting a high-end receiver would be really good.  

Obviously so would be getting a high-end safety, pass-rusher, d-lineman, tackle, and TE.  So many position areas where a high-end player would really bump the talent, I have zero idea how Gute will apply his first four picks.  

Doubs looked okay in practice because we had Watson out and no one else that had much juice. He was really bad at catching the ball. We need to stop expecting these guys to become more than what they are. His ceiling is a number #3 wr much like lazard and MVS. We need a legit option next to Watson with a higher ceiling. 

Edited April 6, 2023 by PackFan13

[incognito_man]

10 minutes ago, HokieHigh said:

Ya i think we need to trade up or down, the value at 15 just is not great for our needs

I think there could be really good EDGE, OT and maybe CB value if one drops at 15.

[PackFan13]

8 hours ago, DWhitehurst said:

Kincaid is great, that is, to play Flex TE position. He will likely go in the first round somewhere.

But if the Packers TE cupboard is empty (well, except for Davis), is not your Inline Y TE position a greater need to fill than your Flex? If so, then were you to take Kincaid at #15 to be your Flex, then you're waiting all the way till #45 or #43 at best (if a trade with the Jets happens involving #43 prior to the Draft) to get that Inline Y guy you absolutely need. 

So then you are gambling that one of the top Y guys, Mayer or Washington, will still be on the board at #43. But what if they're not? What if they both go before #43? Then do you arguably reach for the next best Y prospect, Tucker Kraft, at #45 or do you wait and hope Kraft is still on the board at #78? Or do you wait and go for Schoonmaker at #116? 

So if you take Kincaid at #15, then you might be looking at a drafted TE combo of Kincaid (Flex) + Kraft (Inline). On the other hand, if they managed to trade down from 15 into the mid 20's for a 3rd, then maybe all the TE's including Kincaid might still be on the board, and you could pick Kincaid then, and then trade up from either 45 or 43 with one of your 3rd's (a bit pricey I know), and have a better shot at getting either Mayer or Washington to be your Y guy.

Or if Kincaid is gone by the mid 20's, then you still likely can take your pick of either Mayer or Washington to be that Y which you need, and then take, say, either Musgrave or LaPorta at #43 or #45  to be that Flex guy you want. 

My point is....because I think getting an Inline TE prospect is a higher priority, I wouldn't go for Kincaid at #15. I would consider going for Kincaid if they were able to trade down into the mid 20's and grab him there. 

My underlining bias is this: I want Washington for our Inline TE. I just don't want to pick him as high as #15 and yet I think he will be off the board before #45 (or #43) gets around.

Mayers blocking is overrated, though clearly better than Kincaid, he's got no seperation in the pass game. Kincaid isn't that bad of a blocker that you'd need to run away from his side. Ideally he's catching passes but to act like he's a liability is not correct. 

Getting a legit threat in our passing game is way more important than filling the Lewis role. I wouldn't mind Kincaid and Washington back to back. Washington is a great blocker but will take years to become a receiving threat.

Kincaid in the first and Laporta or Washington in the second would be great with me. People are underestimating the impact Kincaid would have on our passing game. 

It's the vibes I got with Lazard. I don't give a **** that he's a good blocker when we've got only one guy that creates separation and gets open consistently. We need people catching passes more than we need a TE blocking.  Blocking TE is much easier to find than a guy like Kincaid.

[Kampfgeist]

I agree with the thought that while Kincaid is really talented, Mayer and Washington would seem to be the better fit for us if looking at TE early w a La Porta, Kraft or Schoonmaker type later.    I think Gesicki might be a good comp.  Was a productive receiver while Flores was the head coach with 51, 53, 73 catches on 85-112 targets but McDaniels came in with a system that valued blocking more and Gesicki was an after thought this year with 32 receptions. 

In our offense Robert Tonyan was the primary receiving TE and played approx 60% of snaps.   His best years he had 59 and 67 targets.  Mercedes Lewis had 57 receptions and 75 targets TOTAL over 5 seasons in GB but was heavily utilized as a blocker.    I think Kincaid's strengths would be largely underutilized and wasted the way our offense has functioned under MLF.  Perhaps that is more Rodgers choosing not to target the TE more or reluctance to play over the middle and Love may change that?   Perhaps it was we had a reasonable athlete at TE that was a complete liability in-line or an exceptional in-line TE with marginal athletic abilities.    As things stand I'd rather have a fantastic in-line TE like Mayer or Washington that will provide stat lines similar to a Cole Kmet than an underutilized receiving TE

[Packerraymond]

18 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

He's definitely a slot guy. OSU was really creative in getting him free releases and slot work. He's an elite slot WR prospect, but he's a slot.

I still don't see it with him. Would much rather spend a late pick on a slot WR. I don't see anything that makes me want to use a top 15 pick when we have Watson and Doubs (who our HC just compared to Davante).

I'd be really really surprised to see us use that pick at WR. Especially a slot.

Justin Jefferson played 3 snaps outside in college. "Slot guy."

[Arthur Penske]

48 minutes ago, Old Guy said:

Yeah, comparing Utah's defense to an NFL defense seems like a good argument. Especially in a meaningless college football game where a lot of guys who were entering the draft didn't play.

I'm not disputing he's a heck of a player, but to use his best game ever, in what amounts to an exhibition game doesn't seem logical to me. 

The rose bowl is a meaningless exhibition game and putting up 347 yards for the most ever in a bowl game in FBS history doesn’t count. Got it 

And yeah, I clearly compared Utahs defense to an NFL defense like you stated. If you don’t like JSN or even think that accomplishment impressive that’s fine, but try reading next time as I clearly didn’t compare utahs defense to anything. 

[HokieHigh]

12 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

I think there could be really good EDGE, OT and maybe CB value if one drops at 15.

gonzalez witherspoon

Pj, Brojo, wright.. skoronski

Anderson Carter wilson ..  murphy .. van ness, nolan

 

.. indicate tier drops. At 15 i only like guys to the left of ..s. 

Add in qj. Otherwise im trading down to ~20 or looking for 2024 picks from bad teams.. especially if we have extra 2nd rounders 

Edited April 6, 2023 by HokieHigh

[incognito_man]

5 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

Justin Jefferson played 3 snaps outside in college. "Slot guy."

Who called Jefferson a slot guy? We're talking about JSN. He's a very different player than Jefferson.

[ThatJerkDave]

11 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

I think there could be really good EDGE, OT and maybe CB value if one drops at 15.

We just have to be a little lucky with all 4 QBs going before us and Bijan Robinson and a run on one of the positions and we will have a good board to work with.  

[Packerraymond]

1 minute ago, incognito_man said:

Who called Jefferson a slot guy? We're talking about JSN. He's a very different player than Jefferson.

Because of his 6 pounds on JSN?

Jefferson was called a slot guy by everyone and their mother in the 2020 pre-draft process. It's the tape we have to evaluate so I get it. However they're 6'1 200 players, there was projection there with Jefferson and there is with JSN.

Bulaga fell because he was "a guard" with shorter arms. In reality he was a borderline arm length guy who you needed to try at OT and at worse you had an elite guard. JSN needs to be tried outside and at worst you have an elite slot.

[HokieHigh]

11 minutes ago, Kampfgeist said:

I agree with the thought that while Kincaid is really talented, Mayer and Washington would seem to be the better fit for us if looking at TE early w a La Porta, Kraft or Schoonmaker type later.    I think Gesicki might be a good comp.  Was a productive receiver while Flores was the head coach with 51, 53, 73 catches on 85-112 targets but McDaniels came in with a system that valued blocking more and Gesicki was an after thought this year with 32 receptions. 

In our offense Robert Tonyan was the primary receiving TE and played approx 60% of snaps.   His best years he had 59 and 67 targets.  Mercedes Lewis had 57 receptions and 75 targets TOTAL over 5 seasons in GB but was heavily utilized as a blocker.    I think Kincaid's strengths would be largely underutilized and wasted the way our offense has functioned under MLF.  Perhaps that is more Rodgers choosing not to target the TE more or reluctance to play over the middle and Love may change that?   Perhaps it was we had a reasonable athlete at TE that was a complete liability in-line or an exceptional in-line TE with marginal athletic abilities.    As things stand I'd rather have a fantastic in-line TE like Mayer or Washington that will provide stat lines similar to a Cole Kmet than an underutilized receiving TE

The idea of taking 2 te's early is painful to me

[R T]

1 minute ago, ThatJerkDave said:

We just have to be a little lucky with all 4 QBs going before us and Bijan Robinson and a run on one of the positions and we will have a good board to work with.  

It really looks that way, I personally like how the board likely falls for the Packers at 15. Sliding QB's could screw things up a little, but still believe they will get a player they love where they are at.