Cwood is a nerd and so are all the Packer Favorite Prospects: 2023 Draft Discussion Thread

[vegas492]

13 hours ago, MrBobGray said:

Thing is I think LaFleur wants to run more big slot or even just straight 1-2 personnel.  Rodgers's best season with LaFleur they ran 55% 1-1 personnell, 24% 1-2 personnel, and 14% 2-1 personnel.  With a weaker receiving room in general, gotta figure they'd rather lean on the run game, and a guy like JSN doesn't really help you do that.

That being said I don't actually disagree with you here.  JSN's a fun watch because he's so precise in his movements and he does have a great sense of how to attack a DB.  I like him more each time I watch him, I just don't think the value is there in the 1st because for all he does well, I don't see a guy who can create big plays with any consistency.  Only scored 10 TDs in college, three of those in one game, and that's despite being a guy who seems like he should be an ideal red zone weapon.  He just doesn't threaten you with long speed at all, and even on big catches he's unlikely to break free for long TDs. 

To me, that's the biggest difference between him and Jefferson, who is clearly the comp the JSN camp is angling for.  Jefferson was a legit 4.43 guy who could separate on vertical routes with regularity.  He only played the slot because Chase is an eldritch horror made flesh with no known weaknesses and putting Jefferson inside ensures the safeties are always in the wrong spot.

I'm not falling down the rabbit hole of JSN vs. Jefferson.  The only thing I will say on the topic is that Jefferson was my draft crush that year and I hoped GB would trade up to get him.  Nuff said.

JSN, though...he doesn't need to be the home run threat.  He doesn't need to be the red zone threat.  He needs to move the chains on third down.  He needs to be THE GUY on offense that can win quickly.  He's all that and then some.

I won't fight you a bit on that kind of WR taken at #15 or #13.  To me that is too high for a WR who is not a prototypical #1 WR.  However, he's everything that this offense needs to support Love.

Regarding TD's...Watson had 14 in his 4 year career.  52 games.  He was a man playing amongst boys in regards to talent.  He should have been a much larger weapon, as he was their lone receiving weapon.  JSN was sharing catches and TD's with the offensive rookie of the year last year, and Olave, both of whom were first round picks.  This past year, when he played, he was like Jefferson in that there was a generational talent starting with him.

[Rainmaker90]

I’m really hoping we strongly consider Michael Mayer (trade down).

 

His testing wasn’t great, but he’s the perfect example of tape not matching the testing or it not mattering .

 

Mayer’s best football is absolutely ahead of him. I’m a ND fan, and he dominated with absolute dog s*** at QB.

Ian Book

Drew Pyne

Tyler Buchner 

 

all are f’n terrible .

[PackFan13]

Everyone saying they'd hate Kincaid needs their brains checked. Some would rather hyatt than Kincaid? Gtfo

 

Daniel Jeremiah has him 9th overall in the entire class. A better version of Ertz like I've said. How the hell do you not want that for Love?!? We tried ILB last year that had little impact initially. Let's go big impact this year in the first .

9th

 Dalton Kincaid Senior

Kincaid is a highly productive tight end with exceptional quickness, route polish and run-after-catch ability. At Utah, he typically lined up flexed in the slot. He is explosive in his release and is a smooth/fluid route runner. He gets up on the toes of defenders before snapping off his route and creating separation. He attacks the ball with his hands and can hold on after taking hard contact. After the catch, he has the burst, wiggle and strength to break tackles. In the run game, he is more of a shield-off blocker than a physical people-mover. Overall, Kincaid is a more explosive version of Zach Ertz coming out of college.

[Packerraymond]

1 hour ago, Rainmaker90 said:

I’m really hoping we strongly consider Michael Mayer (trade down).

 

His testing wasn’t great, but he’s the perfect example of tape not matching the testing or it not mattering .

 

Mayer’s best football is absolutely ahead of him. I’m a ND fan, and he dominated with absolute dog s*** at QB.

Ian Book

Drew Pyne

Tyler Buchner 

 

all are f’n terrible .

Mayer is a perfect example of tape matching the testing. He can't separate from college defenders, and he won't separate from NFL defenders. 

[Packerraymond]

3 minutes ago, PackFan13 said:

Everyone saying they'd hate Kincaid needs their brains checked. Some would rather hyatt than Kincaid? Gtfo

 

Daniel Jeremiah has him 9th overall in the entire class. A better version of Ertz like I've said. How the hell do you not want that for Love?!? We tried ILB last year that had little impact initially. Let's go big impact this year in the first .

9th

 Dalton Kincaid Senior

Kincaid is a highly productive tight end with exceptional quickness, route polish and run-after-catch ability. At Utah, he typically lined up flexed in the slot. He is explosive in his release and is a smooth/fluid route runner. He gets up on the toes of defenders before snapping off his route and creating separation. He attacks the ball with his hands and can hold on after taking hard contact. After the catch, he has the burst, wiggle and strength to break tackles. In the run game, he is more of a shield-off blocker than a physical people-mover. Overall, Kincaid is a more explosive version of Zach Ertz coming out of college.

Prepare to be disappointed. You can argue we might take an older prospect, or that we might take a non-premium prospect, but I can guarantee you we will not be taking an older, non-premium prospect in rd 1. 

[NFLGURU]

1 hour ago, Rainmaker90 said:

I’m really hoping we strongly consider Michael Mayer (trade down).

 

His testing wasn’t great, but he’s the perfect example of tape not matching the testing or it not mattering .

 

Mayer’s best football is absolutely ahead of him. I’m a ND fan, and he dominated with absolute dog s*** at QB.

Ian Book

Drew Pyne

Tyler Buchner 

 

all are f’n terrible .

I think he'll be a solid TE at the next level.  Nothing special or game changing.  Great hands, he's probably the best all around TE in the draft, but in the NFL those LBs and safeties are going to be able to hang with him.    

[vegas492]

13 minutes ago, NFLGURU said:

I think he'll be a solid TE at the next level.  Nothing special or game changing.  Great hands, he's probably the best all around TE in the draft, but in the NFL those LBs and safeties are going to be able to hang with him.    

When I watch Mayer....I can't tell if I'm watching him or Cole Kmet all over again.  Not saying that is a bad thing.  Am saying I don't value it in the first round.

[PackFan13]

20 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

Prepare to be disappointed. You can argue we might take an older prospect, or that we might take a non-premium prospect, but I can guarantee you we will not be taking an older, non-premium prospect in rd 1. 

I think Gute knows he needs to get Love weapons or it could get ugly quickly. I'm all for a WR if they feel they are worth the selection. I'm more than used to being disappointed by Gute in the draft. I don't think we'll get Kincaid but depending on how the board plays out, he should absolutely be an option.

He's going to end up at the lions at 18 and cook us for years. I can already see it. My Ute studs always go to our rivals. (Jaylon Johnson to the bears being the most recent)

Edited April 7, 2023 by PackFan13

[NFLGURU]

Just now, vegas492 said:

When I watch Mayer....I can't tell if I'm watching him or Cole Kmet all over again.  Not saying that is a bad thing.  Am saying I don't value it in the first round.

Exactly, I think the hope is he can turn into a Witten type, but its too risky for me in the first rd.

[R T]

2 minutes ago, PackFan13 said:

I think Gute knows he needs to get Love weapons or it could get ugly quickly. I'm all for a WR if they feel they are worth the selection. I'm more than used to being disappointed by Gute in the draft. I don't think we'll get Kincaid but depending on how the board plays out, he should absolutely be an option.

You do this every year; you convince yourself of what needs to be done and then go full out raging when it doesn't. With the medical question on Kincaid there is a fair chance that he doesn't even go in the first round, it's happened to many that have been touted as first rounders with a medical red flag. Now when you can really lose your mind is if he is still on the board at 45 and the Packers still pass on him. 

[packfanfb]

For anyone interested....

 

[Rainmaker90]

1 hour ago, Packerraymond said:

Mayer is a perfect example of tape matching the testing. He can't separate from college defenders, and he won't separate from NFL defenders. 

That’s not true. He’s not going to blow past people but he has deceptive quickness with his cuts and is a real strong route runner. 
 

Nobody was afraid of ND going deep down field , Mayer separated just fine in the middle of the field 

[Packerraymond]

2 minutes ago, Rainmaker90 said:

That’s not true. He’s not going to blow past people but he has deceptive quickness with his cuts and is a real strong route runner. 
 

Nobody was afraid of ND going deep down field , Mayer separated just fine in the middle of the field 

You are the first person I've seen hold this opinion.

IMO Mayer does not separate fine at all. Mayer had 26 contested catch opportunities on an ADOT of 8.1, Laporta had 16, Kincaid had 17. I haven't found anyone else in the TE group over 20, and that's multiplying out their targets to equal Mayer's. He doesn't separate. He's fantastic at the catch point, give him credit there, but those safeties and LB's get way more talented at this level. 

I personally don't think Mayer will be considered at all by us. We'll have Washington, Kincaid, LaPorta, Musgrave higher. 

[HighCalebR]

1 hour ago, PackFan13 said:

I think Gute knows he needs to get Love weapons or it could get ugly quickly. I'm all for a WR if they feel they are worth the selection. I'm more than used to being disappointed by Gute in the draft. I don't think we'll get Kincaid but depending on how the board plays out, he should absolutely be an option.

He's going to end up at the lions at 18 and cook us for years. I can already see it. My Ute studs always go to our rivals. (Jaylon Johnson to the bears being the most recent)

Is he Ertz or Hurst? That line is pretty damn fine.

Idk if id die on any of the TEs. When LaPorta your 5th? Option youre in a good spot to let the value find you.

[Rainmaker90]

2 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

You are the first person I've seen hold this opinion.

IMO Mayer does not separate fine at all. Mayer had 26 contested catch opportunities on an ADOT of 8.1, Laporta had 16, Kincaid had 17. I haven't found anyone else in the TE group over 20, and that's multiplying out their targets to equal Mayer's. He doesn't separate. He's fantastic at the catch point, give him credit there, but those safeties and LB's get way more talented at this level. 

I personally don't think Mayer will be considered at all by us. We'll have Washington, Kincaid, LaPorta, Musgrave higher. 

You’re right , he does great in contested balls. That doesn’t mean he doesn’t separate .

 

I want to bring up context again. ND’d offense was so limited due to atrocious QB play. Nobody was afraid of the deep ball.

 

 

I think you’re right there as well. He doesn’t seem like a MLF type TE. I’m nkt sure I agree, as having a TE line Mayer doesn’t hint at what the offense is going to run, but he doesn’t look like the athlete MLF woukd want .