Cwood is a nerd and so are all the Packer Favorite Prospects: 2023 Draft Discussion Thread

[Striker]

17 hours ago, Malfatron said:

Me too.

I have the following getting better picks

Houston

Carolina

Jacksonville

Los vegas

Denver

Bears

Cleveland

Pittsburgh

Rams

Cardinals

Colts

 

Putting us at 12.

I even have detroit finishing with a better record if you want to swap them with colts

 

I don't think there's any way the Packers will do worse than HOU or CAR. 

The other teams have enough common games against each other that the Packers could jump a few of them if they only win one more game.

The Jaguars do get the Lions, Jets, and Texans so they could pick up 1 to 3 more wins. And who knows, maybe the Titans will rest players in Week 18.

The Raiders have a tough schedule ahead, but the Chargers might find a way to blow it vs. them and the Rams and Steelers could be wins. KC could rest players as well depending on what they and the Bills do.

Denver (Seattle) do get the Panthers, Cardinals, and Rams.

The Bears have a brutal closing schedule...but maybe they beat the Packers and Lions?

The Browns do get Watson back and then play the Texans, the Bengals, the Saints, and the Commanders.

The Steelers do get the Colts, Falcons, Panthers, and Raiders. Which either gives those teams wins or helps us out by winning themselves.

The Cardinals fate will depend on the double XP weekend schedule.

If the Colts can pick up one more win, it would help. Them finding that tie to start the year may be enough if the Packers only win one more.

I think the Packers likely range is 7-10. Assuming they don't find a way to overperform the rest of the way.

Edited November 26, 2022 by Striker

[Dubz41]

 I don't care where we pick. We're going to draft Mike Mayer the TE from Notre Dame. Talent.  

@Outpost31will hate it, but he is NFL ready.

Edited November 27, 2022 by Dubz41

[Brat&Beer]

9 minutes ago, Dubz41 said:

 I don't care where we pick. We're going to draft Mike Mayer the TE from Notre Dame. Talent.  

@Outpost31will hate it, but he is NFL ready.

I hate it, and I'm a Notre Dame fan. Just don't believe in taking a TE with a top 12 pick.  

[Dubz41]

I know, but arbitrary rules haven't gotten us to where we want to be. Don't even know where Mayer will be on a big board, but he's a man among boys on the field.

TE is important in MLFs offense and I think it's our least talented position.  Big Bob Tonyan just isn't the same.

[Sandy]

7 minutes ago, Dubz41 said:

I know, but arbitrary rules haven't gotten us to where we want to be. Don't even know where Mayer will be on a big board, but he's a man among boys on the field.

TE is important in MLFs offense and I think it's our least talented position.  Big Bob Tonyan just isn't the same.

I agree. A year ago people would have sneered at the idea of a first round ILB. I don't think it would be totally unfounded to take Mayer 

[MacReady]

12 minutes ago, Sandy said:

I agree. A year ago people would have sneered at the idea of a first round ILB. I don't think it would be totally unfounded to take Mayer 

I wouldn’t use this one just yet. It’s not like Quay is whirlwinding the NFL right now. And he was 22nd overall. You start talking about 12th overall or higher picking a TE and you’re asking to become the next Lions or Falcons franchise. Just ask the Lions or the Falcons.

[Dubz41]

20 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

I wouldn’t use this one just yet. It’s not like Quay is whirlwinding the NFL right now. And he was 22nd overall. You start talking about 12th overall or higher picking a TE and you’re asking to become the next Lions or Falcons franchise. Just ask the Lions or the Falcons.

Both of which are above us in the standings? Plus, we have a HOF QB to utilize him.

Not totally serious, just watching him tonight and he's the real deal.

[Brat&Beer]

Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, Zach Ertz, George Kittle, Gronk, Dalton Schultz, Dallas Goedert, Darren Waller. None of these guys were 1st round picks, much less top 12 picks. 

A GM who has to draft that high to get a good TE shouldn't be GM.  

[Sandy]

1 hour ago, Outpost31 said:

I wouldn’t use this one just yet. It’s not like Quay is whirlwinding the NFL right now. And he was 22nd overall. You start talking about 12th overall or higher picking a TE and you’re asking to become the next Lions or Falcons franchise. Just ask the Lions or the Falcons.

Even so, I stopped saying "this front office won't draft player X because of reason Y" after taking said linebacker and a 24 year old in the first last year. 

Gute has Mayer somewhere on his board, and if it's the top spot when it's our turn to pick, I wouldn't be shocked.

I'd prefer one of the edge players projected to go top ten is the pick instead of Mayer, but if they're gone along with the top tackle and d-line players, we could do worse.

[CWood21]

37 minutes ago, Brat&Beer said:

A GM who has to draft that high to get a good TE shouldn't be GM.  

This.  You're expected to hit on FRPs.  It's those Day 2 and Day 3 picks that dictate how you're viewed as a talent evaluator.

[Malfatron]

On 11/6/2022 at 1:59 PM, Outpost31 said:

 

 

 

Sing this song in your head after every Aaron Rodgers ***** fit on the sideline, after every wide open receiver streaking across the middle of the field, after every time Rodgers takes a sack, after every third and long converted, after every 3rd and 4th and short we fail to convert.

 

Im not a country fan but replace race with tank and its fitting

 

[MacReady]

11 hours ago, Dubz41 said:

Both of which are above us in the standings? Plus, we have a HOF QB to utilize him.

Not totally serious, just watching him tonight and he's the real deal.

Neither of which has a Super Bowl win and neither of which knows WTF they’re doing.

[CWood21]

11 hours ago, Sandy said:

Even so, I stopped saying "this front office won't draft player X because of reason Y" after taking said linebacker and a 24 year old in the first last year. 

Gute has Mayer somewhere on his board, and if it's the top spot when it's our turn to pick, I wouldn't be shocked.

I'd prefer one of the edge players projected to go top ten is the pick instead of Mayer, but if they're gone along with the top tackle and d-line players, we could do worse.

Same.  I thought Gute was pretty close to the TT tree, but this past draft suggests otherwise.

[MacReady]

Tight Ends taken in the first round from 2000 to 2017
(all careers finished or close enough to finished to get the picture)

Player (draft position
Receiving Yards
Receiving Touchdowns

Vernon Davis 6th
7,562
63
Kellen Winslow II 6th
5,236
25
Eric Ebron 10th
3,837
33
Bubba Franks 14th
2,347
32
Jeremy Shockey 14th
6,143
37
Brandon Pettigrew 20th
2,965
17
Daniel Graham 21st
2,490
25
Jermaine Gresham 21st
3,752
29
Tyler Eifert 21st
2,501
26
Dallas Clark 24th
5,665
53
Jeremy Stevens 28th
2,217
22
Marcedes Lewis 28th
5,038
38
Dustin Keller 30th
2,876
17
Heath Miller 30th
6,569
45
Greg Olsen 31st
8,683
60
Todd Heap 31st
5,869
42
Benjamin Watson 32nd
6,058
44

 

Top Half (5 tight ends drafted 1st overall to 16th overall)
Average 5025 receiving yards
Average 38 career touchdowns

With Vernon Davis having 63 touchdowns and only 5 tight ends drafted in the top half of the draft, these averages should completely destroy the second half of the first round, right?

Bottom Half
Average 4,821 receiving yards
Average 34 career touchdowns

You're an idiot if you want to draft a tight end in the top half of the draft.

There is no such thing as a can't miss, real deal tight end.

TJ Hockensen was that prospect. No he wasn't. Vernon Davis, Kellen Winslow, Eric Ebron...

If you draft a tight end in the top half of the draft, you are an idiot.

[NFLGURU]

The TE is a fringe position.  Yes, it's great if you have a good one, but the Packers need building blocks and foundation players.  Mayer is a good player but the Packers have much bigger needs with injuries, age and pending FAs coming due.