Cwood is a nerd and so are all the Packer Favorite Prospects: 2023 Draft Discussion Thread

[Sandy]

11 hours ago, Outpost31 said:

It’s all there. It’s not subjective, it’s not opinion, it’s not some musings of someone who hates the TE position. TE is probably my favorite position to watch on the offense. A great one is a thing of beauty. The best have to have that grit in them as well as the agility.

Kelce and Gronkowski would both probably be my favorite Packers of all time if they’d been Packers.

I’d rather have a great TE than a great receiver.

But I’m not an idiot and I know that their value is not as great and conducive towards Super Bowl wins as OT, QB, RB, EDGE, DB, DL or probably not even as valuable as ILB, IOL.

They rank close to dead last. Kicker, punter and MAYBE receiver are below them.

If I could pick an elite player - I was guaranteed to have an elite player with my pick - I go every single position except for kicker or punter before I go TE.

See, here's where you lost me. While you're right that a first round TE is nowhere near a guarantee to net you a stud TE, having a stud TE is one of the best indicators of a Super Bowl team. 

The other day someone (might have been you) made a list of 8 notable current TEs that weren't taken in the first round - and it occurred to me that 5 of them have won Super Bowls. Gronk won, what, 3? Aaron Hernandez got 2 before killing a guy (allegedly). 

A guaranteed Pro Bowl TE is probably right below QB, ED, OT, NT and CB for me (in that order).

[CWood21]

1 minute ago, Sandy said:

A guaranteed Pro Bowl TE is probably right below QB, ED, OT, NT and CB for me (in that order).

But can you gaurantee that you're getting a Pro Bowl TE in the first round?

[Sandy]

2 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

But can you gaurantee that you're getting a Pro Bowl TE in the first round?

Oh definitely not, but this was in response to his statement that if he could guarantee an elite player at any position, TE would be at the bottom of his list.

I'm fully in favor of going Edge in a draft that should have several interesting ones available around where we're picking.

[oldmansmell]

We're drafting edge because Yosh is balling out. I'm honestly interested in what we do with Jenkins, I think they let him walk.. 

[Arthur Penske]

1 hour ago, oldmansmell said:

We're drafting edge because Yosh is balling out. I'm honestly interested in what we do with Jenkins, I think they let him walk.. 

Yosh got pushed around tonight and he’s a free agent in 2023

[packfanfb]

4 hours ago, oldmansmell said:

We're drafting edge because Yosh is balling out. I'm honestly interested in what we do with Jenkins, I think they let him walk.. 

I'm probably not even thinking twice about letting Jenkins walk. Him and Lazard don't even get offers if I'm Gute. Both will cost more than they're worth.

[MacReady]

8 hours ago, Sandy said:

See, here's where you lost me. While you're right that a first round TE is nowhere near a guarantee to net you a stud TE, having a stud TE is one of the best indicators of a Super Bowl team.

Lol.

Rams - Kendall Blanton, Bryce Hopkins (Higbee was on IR).
Buccaneers - Gronkowski was not some elite TE at 32 years old.
Chiefs - Kelce. That's one.
Patriots - Gronkowski. That's two.
Eagles - Ertz.
Patriots - Gronkowski on IR.
Broncos - Owen Daniels.
Patriots - Gronkowski.
Seahawks - Luke Wilson. Lol.
Ravens - Ed Dickson.
Giants - Ballard, Beckum, Pascoe? I don't even know.
Packers - Donald Lee, Andrew Quarless? Don't even know who was the starter that year, I think Lee.

So out of the past ten years, three teams won by having their great TE on IR. Do tight ends have cheer leading qualities that put teams over the top?

Counting Gronkowski isn't even really all that fair considering he won all three with Brady.

So if you take Brady out of the equation, you've got...

Blanton, Kelce, Ertz, Daniels, Wilson, Dickson, Ballard and Lee over the past 12 seasons.

This also neglects the fact that none of them were first round picks. Not one of them.

Saying TE is an indicator of Super Bowl wins is like saying you need a Hall of Fame kicker to win a Super Bowl since Adam Vinatieri won 4.

In fact, you know which tight end has the most Super Bowl wins? Marv Fleming.

If TE was a Super Bowl indicator, Kelce - the best move TE maybe ever, if not ever certainly top 5 all-time - has a single Super Bowl win. With a top 10 QB ever.

And you know why those teams won Super Bowls with those tight ends? Because they didn't use a first round pick to get their tight end. They used it on a more important position and got their TE in a later round.

 

[MacReady]

2 hours ago, packfanfb said:

I'm probably not even thinking twice about letting Jenkins walk. Him and Lazard don't even get offers if I'm Gute. Both will cost more than they're worth.

You're still wrong about Lazard.

Look at the market for receivers. You're not getting a better one any way outside of the draft.

Lazard is a great player to have on your team if you're trying to build a Super Bowl winner.

If you don't re-sign Lazard, you're looking at drafting his replacement or getting someone worse than him.

[pgwingman]

9 hours ago, Sandy said:

 Gronk won, what, 3? Aaron Hernandez got 2 before killing a guy (allegedly). 

I don't think you're allowed to say allegedly if you've been convicted by a jury

6 hours ago, Arthur Penske said:

Yosh got pushed around tonight and he’s a free agent in 2023

Yosh is a restricted free agent, so probably retained this offseason. 

[Jaire_Island]

10 hours ago, incognito_man said:

No trade clause is irrelevant anyway. No team would trade for him that he doesn't enthusiastically want to go to.

He might like Colts

[Arthur Penske]

6 minutes ago, pgwingman said:

I don't think you're allowed to say allegedly if you've been convicted by a jury

Yosh is a restricted free agent, so probably retained this offseason. 

Not from what I've seen:

Yosh Nijman Contract Breakdowns, Salary Cap Figures, Salaries, Bonuses | Spotrac

Yosuah Nijman Contract Details, Salary Cap Charges, Bonus Money, and Contract History | Over The Cap

[pgwingman]

3 minutes ago, Arthur Penske said:

Not from what I've seen:

Yosh Nijman Contract Breakdowns, Salary Cap Figures, Salaries, Bonuses | Spotrac

Yosuah Nijman Contract Details, Salary Cap Charges, Bonus Money, and Contract History | Over The Cap

Yeah, I've seen this too. My understanding is that Spotrac incorrectly lists Yosh's first season as an accrued season. Over the Cap correctly lists him having 2 accrued seasons, with this being the third, which would make him an RFA after this season. He was an ERFA after last season as well, which would make him an RFA this season. The two sites contradicting themselves makes it super confusing.

[{Family Ghost}]

15 minutes ago, pgwingman said:

Yeah, I've seen this too. My understanding is that Spotrac incorrectly lists Yosh's first season as an accrued season. Over the Cap correctly lists him having 2 accrued seasons, with this being the third, which would make him an RFA after this season. He was an ERFA after last season as well, which would make him an RFA this season. The two sites contradicting themselves makes it super confusing.

I think the Packers would be wise to keep this guy around .. maybe a three year extension might be a possibility.

As for Elgton Jenkins I think I would let him test the market. 

[pgwingman]

Just now, {Family Ghost} said:

I think the Packers would be wise to keep this guy around .. maybe a three year extension might be a possibility.

As for Elgton Jenkins I think I would let him test the market. 

The number I've been hearing is a second round tender. Then 2023 is Yosh and Bakh as your Plan A tackles. Then Zach Tom as Plan B. If a great tackle falls to them in the draft, you can draft him and cut Bakh post June 1 for a decent cap savings in 2022, which we'll need.

As for Jenkins, I'm torn. He's been great at Guard, serviceable at LT, and weirdly bad at RT. Some of that's injury related. Could his best years be ahead of him? Sure. But you don't want to overpay for a guard with limited versatility. But at the same time, I hate letting 2nd round picks walk away in free agency. No easy decision there. In the end I guess it comes down to price.

[{Family Ghost}]

5 minutes ago, pgwingman said:

The number I've been hearing is a second round tender. Then 2023 is Yosh and Bakh as your Plan A tackles. Then Zach Tom as Plan B. If a great tackle falls to them in the draft, you can draft him and cut Bakh post June 1 for a decent cap savings in 2022, which we'll need.

As for Jenkins, I'm torn. He's been great at Guard, serviceable at LT, and weirdly bad at RT. Some of that's injury related. Could his best years be ahead of him? Sure. But you don't want to overpay for a guard with limited versatility. But at the same time, I hate letting 2nd round picks walk away in free agency. No easy decision there. In the end I guess it comes down to price.

It's a tough one .. I don't think the Packers would be wise to pay him top guard money after this season.  At least if he walks for big money they'd more than likely get a 3rd round pick comp.