Cwood is a nerd and so are all the Packer Favorite Prospects: 2023 Draft Discussion Thread

[Arthur Penske]

What’s the deal with this S-2 cognition test everyone is talking about now. Is it brand new or am I just hearing about it late?

[Mazrimiv]

On 4/21/2023 at 10:32 AM, incognito_man said:

The cog score is my new favorite metric 

Here's something I hadn't considered

Quote

"I do have a feeling that a quarterback from Alabama that we have tested every year since he was in 10th grade may end up sharing his results publicly because he actually owns those results and the NFL does not”

Now I wonder how many prospects have had prior experience taking the test.  If the test is essentially a video game, I have to believe someone who's played the game multiple times before would have a distinct advantage over someone who hasn't.

[ThatJerkDave]

28 minutes ago, packfanfb said:

Sounds like a Chief or Brown 2nd rounder.

19 minutes ago, Arthur Penske said:

Eh Vikings might take a look too.

 

Have you guys forgotten the Bengals?  There is a reason they wear orange uniforms.

Edited April 22, 2023 by ThatJerkDave

[Green19]

19 minutes ago, Arthur Penske said:

What’s the deal with this S-2 cognition test everyone is talking about now. Is it brand new or am I just hearing about it late?

It’s news, it’s replacing the wonderlic. It’s mostly for QBs is my understanding and it’s suppose to message your processing power under stress. Bryce Young got like a 98% , Stroud 18%.
 

So everyone is pointing to stroud falling now

[Mazrimiv]

25 minutes ago, Arthur Penske said:

What’s the deal with this S-2 cognition test everyone is talking about now. Is it brand new or am I just hearing about it late?

Per the S-2 overlords

Quote

S2 Cognition attempts to quantify split-second reaction times to visual stimuli on a computer screen. The cognitive skills measured by the S2 evaluation are the same cognitive skills engaged on the field, court, or ice. Our evaluation is devoid of racial bias, it does not measure IQ, intelligence or classroom type knowledge, and it cannot be studied for. It requires simple reactions to quick moving visual stimuli on the screen.

Some links to articles discussing it

The S2 Cognitive Test and You (CHTV)

Was Brock Purdy’s emergence predictable? (The Athletic)

What Is the S2 Cognitive Test (PFN)

 

[incognito_man]

7 hours ago, Brit Pack said:

I hate long posts...but here we are...Apologies!

The notion of value with regards to player acquisition in the draft I find is a meaningless train of thought.

The concept of ‘value’ only has value in the context of the days of the draft itself, after the draft it virtually carries no weight whatsoever, as it all then becomes a question of whether the player selected can perform and to what level what round he was drafted in has no bearing on that.

Take a look at the 2019 draft, with the 4^th pick Raiders select Clelin Ferrell and later on with the 106 pick they also select another DE in Maxx Crosby. One turns out to be stud the other a dud. When they selected Crosby did they know he would outperform Ferrell? No chance. So should they have taken Crosby at 4 instead? Of course not, it makes no sense., Crosby was never rated as a 1^st rounder, while Ferrell certainly was (maybe not at 4). In the end you will pretty much always find a player later in the draft that will give you more production than a player playing in the same position selected early on. The question is are you the team lucky enough to select them!!!

Take for example from the 2019 draft, Terry McLaurin is taken one pick after the great Jace Sternberger. Terry is the 11^th receiver selected in the 2019 draft. Receivers selected ahead of him:
1^st Round: Marquise Brown, N’Keal Harry
2^nd Round: Deebo Samuel, AJ Brown, Mecole Hardman, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Parris Campbell, Andy Isabella, DK Metcalff,
3^rd Round: Diontae Johnson, Jalen Hurd

Did the Niners waste the opportunity cost of investing in a better player instead of Deebo at pick 36 and waiting for McLaurin who went at pick 76? Or would they even have been better off taking Terry at pick 36 as he has had better production than Deebo? Deebo has put up 3230 receiving yards and 782 rushing. Terry has 4281 yards receiving and 71 rushing. Who knows, but I don’t think it matters as the Niners got a player who has contributed well to their team, whether Deebo was selected at pick 25 (where Brown was taken) or pick 247 (where the last WR was taken) it doesn’t matter, they ended up with a very good player regardless of the value or position selected in the draft.

Same goes for JSN. Will there be a slot WR that does better than him later in the draft? Quite probably. If we pass on JSN will we be that team that selects that slot WR that is better than JSN? Maybe. What if we take JSN in the 1^st and Tank Dell in the 4^th, and Dell turns out to be a stud and JSN doesn’t, does it matter? Nope. We got a stud. Could we have gotten a better player instead of JSN then at 15? Maybe. Maybe the guy we select instead of JSN stinks also. There are just too many variables at play.

For a player to be successful ultimately requires so many things to align. Would we be talking about Brett Favre as HOF if he isn’t traded to Green Bay and he has Holmgrem as a coach? Would Aaron Rodgers be a HOF if he doesn’t sit for three years behind Brett? Therefore all the factors below have to align as well:
1) Opportunity – does the player get the game snaps to show off
2) Coaching – does the coaching suit the player, is there a coach that jells with the player and unlocks his potential
3) Scheme – does the scheme play to the strengths of the player
4) Injury – does the player avoid injury so they can stay on the field
5) Money – how does money affect the player and his motivation
6) Character – does the player have a good character, does he have a past, can he move away from that etc

The only aspect where I feel draft value has value is early on in a player's career, as he will be given more opportunities to prove his draft value. Apart from that too many variables play a role and talent is to be found from the first pick to the last, and you don’t know if the pick that you made will be any good or not, because if you did know you might have made that pick earlier.

Ultimately for me, regardless of where a player is picked, do you manage to get two quality starters out of a draft is the key, where they were selected is pretty meaningless.

This is a lot of words to just say that you don't think it's easy enough to consider all of the variables therefore no one should try. 

Couldn't disagree more. 

That's even more reason to try even harder. Gain as big of an edge as possible. Process as much of the data as possible on all of the variables. 

Of course Maxx Crosby should have gone mich higher and Ferrell much lower. Figuring out WHY is extremely valuable.

[Mazrimiv]

2 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

Of course Maxx Crosby should have gone mich higher and Ferrell much lower. Figuring out WHY is extremely valuable.

Crosby's GVOA made all the difference.

[incognito_man]

Just now, Mazrimiv said:

Crosby's GVOA made all the difference.

GVOA?

[Mazrimiv]

Just now, incognito_man said:

GVOA?

If memory serves, it is Grit-VOA

[Brit Pack]

4 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

Of course Maxx Crosby should have gone mich higher and Ferrell much lower. Figuring out WHY is extremely valuable.

Raiders fans and owners would have gone crazy if crazy Mike Mayock had taken Crosby at 4, or in the 1st round. Bit like how Patriots fans scratch their heads when BB makes his picks.

That's the point though, you can't figure out why, cos making something very inexact like the draft into a science just isn't possible, you might get best guesses, a bit like PFF but they will be way more wrong than they are right. 


 

[incognito_man]

8 minutes ago, Brit Pack said:

you can't figure out why

Me and the rest of the believers in determinism disagree!

[Brit Pack]

Just now, incognito_man said:

Me and the rest of the believers in determinism disagree!

Good luck with that

[squire12]

13 minutes ago, Brit Pack said:

Raiders fans and owners would have gone crazy if crazy Mike Mayock had taken Crosby at 4, or in the 1st round. Bit like how Patriots fans scratch their heads when BB makes his picks.

That's the point though, you can't figure out why, cos making something very inexact like the draft into a science just isn't possible, you might get best guesses, a bit like PFF but they will be way more wrong than they are right. 


 

just because you may not be able to get to a high percent accuracy or high correlation to what matters in whether a player succeeds or fails doesn't mean you should not try.  

there are 32 teams that spend an good deal of time, money and resources on college prospect scouting .... looking at as many pieces of information they can to help them make the best decision on draft day on the players they select.  

[Mazrimiv]

3 minutes ago, squire12 said:

just because you may not be able to get to a high percent accuracy or high correlation to what matters in whether a player succeeds or fails doesn't mean you should not try.  

there are 32 teams that spend an good deal of time, money and resources on college prospect scouting .... looking at as many pieces of information they can to help them make the best decision on draft day on the players they select.  

Everyone knows that GM's who stick to the public pre-draft consensus are great drafters, and those who do not are big dummies.

[Brat&Beer]

2 hours ago, R T said:

He will have a hard time even getting a UDFA look with his arrest history.

 

Kemari Averett, who was set to stand trial Wednesday after he was accused of holding a gun to his girlfriend's head and threatening to kill her, has instead pleaded guilty to a contempt charge.

Prosecutors agreed Wednesday to dismiss charges of second-degree wanton endangerment and fourth-degree assault. Averett faces one charge of contempt of court after he admitted to unlawfully contacting the woman.

That story is from 2018. He's been in a lot of trouble in the past. Seems like he may have straightened his life out. I think someone will give him a shot.