Cwood is a nerd and so are all the Packer Favorite Prospects: 2023 Draft Discussion Thread

[Brit Pack]

2 minutes ago, squire12 said:

just because you may not be able to get to a high percent accuracy or high correlation to what matters in whether a player succeeds or fails doesn't mean you should not try.  

there are 32 teams that spend an good deal of time, money and resources on college prospect scouting .... looking at as many pieces of information they can to help them make the best decision on draft day on the players they select.  

And they are all way more wrong than they are right because it so hard to predict even with all the data. All teams have different big boards, even within teams there is no consensus of how players should be ranked. 

Then it becomes which data is useful which is not useful, which data is useful in which circumstances, which data is useful for which positions, which data point trumps other data? When do you stop looking at the data? When is a prospect over analyzed blah blah blah.

Is PFF better predictor of talent than Bucky Brooks? Is Mel Kiper better than you or me? Is Gute better than Joe Douglas? Will Chat GPT be better than the whole NFL scouting community?

 

[R T]

4 minutes ago, Brat&Beer said:

That story is from 2018. He's been in a lot of trouble in the past. Seems like he may have straightened his life out. I think someone will give him a shot.

You may be correct, but marginal talents with long arrest histories are not afforded the same chances as elite talents are. 

[squire12]

14 minutes ago, Brit Pack said:

And they are all way more wrong than they are right because it so hard to predict even with all the data. All teams have different big boards, even within teams there is no consensus of how players should be ranked. 

Then it becomes which data is useful which is not useful, which data is useful in which circumstances, which data is useful for which positions, which data point trumps other data? When do you stop looking at the data? When is a prospect over analyzed blah blah blah.

Is PFF better predictor of talent than Bucky Brooks? Is Mel Kiper better than you or me? Is Gute better than Joe Douglas? Will Chat GPT be better than the whole NFL scouting community?

 

I agree it is hard to hit on a high % of draft picks.  Just because it is hard doesn't mean teams should not try to improve their process.  

[Chili]

I've been using the known Packers OL thresholds for offensive linemen to generate a list of prospects for me to look at.

There's another method I use to spot OL who fits what the Packers look for. Its unproven and unscientific but I swear it works. Over the years i've noticed that looking at the legs of OL during their 40 run that the Packers have "a type". Bakthiari, Jenkins, Tom they all have it. They're light on their feet.

Basically when you watch OL run they come in many different styles, some move like a dwarf with lots of little steps, some move like fat people who can barely lift their legs off the ground, some however have an athletic long natural striding style suggesting that they can move easily at their weight, it is those players the Packers like to target. Ignore the 40 time, just watch HOW they move you will instantly spot the athletic ones. The Packers rarely draft stumpy or heavy footed guys, they need to be light on their feet.

Players with undesired running style will sometimes fulfill the Packers thresholds BUT combined with observing who moves well and who don't it can help really narrow down the list of OL prospects the Packers might be looking at. Of course the Packers will make exceptions from time to time especially if they really like the player.

Using these two methods I've come up with the following list of names:

Broderick Jones
Blake Freeland
Jaelyn Duncan
Cody Mauch
Nick Saldiveri
Anton Harrison
Wanya Morris
Braeden Daniels

Borderline - moves reasonably well enough

Darnell Wright
Malaesala Aumavae-Laulu
Ryan Hayes
Sidy Sow
Peter Skoronski
Jon Gaines
Luke Wypler
Earl Bostick

There are a few other who did not run at the combine such as Paris Johnson, Asim Richards, Matthew Bergeron and Joe Tippmann. If i'm a betting man then the Packers will be drafting one of the guys on the list.

I haven't watch their tapes yet but hopefully there's some talented players on the list.

Is this a good list of OL prospects? what do you think?

Edited April 22, 2023 by Chili

[incognito_man]

2 hours ago, Brit Pack said:

Good luck with that

Wishing a determinist "luck" is akin to wishing a man "Happy Mother's Day"

[craig]

14 hours ago, Green19 said:

.... I want good players. If JSN is good, happy to have him. My only position on WRs in the 1st is…. do they not feel good about Watson and Doubs? Or does this offense need 3 good to great WRs? Because Watson is a legit 1 and LaFleur keeps invoking Adams with Doubs. So if that’s the case I would say we can wait until the 2nd.

To your "need 3 good WR" question:  I don't feel like there is an urgency to get a WR.  In the unlikely event that they were to draft JSN, it wouldn't be a need-pick; it would be because they scout him really favorably and evaluate him as a BPA.  

But I think having 3 excellent guys *really* helps everybody. 

• Ideally you like to have a good receiver getting single-covered
• Ideally you'd like to be able to have the defense forced to play their weakest defender on a good receiver.  
• Most teams have good defenders plural to focus on two targets.  But when there are three good targets, it gets almost multiplicatively harder to cover them all.  

I'm also not sure how good Doubs is, so maybe they don't feel as good about Doubs as MLF-gush might suggest.    He can play, and for sure has some asset qualities.  But I'm not sure if he's that elusive/swervy/explosive that DC's are that afraid of single-covering him?  If they aren't, hopefully he'll make a lot of plays and make them reconsider.  

[ThatJerkDave]

16 minutes ago, craig said:

 

I'm also not sure how good Doubs is, so maybe they don't feel as good about Doubs as MLF-gush might suggest.    He can play, and for sure has some asset qualities.  But I'm not sure if he's that elusive/swervy/explosive that DC's are that afraid of single-covering him?  If they aren't, hopefully he'll make a lot of plays and make them reconsider.  

My sell job for you on Doubs will be two fold.  His rookie production, and the rookie production for Davante Adams were very similar.  That doesn't mean that Doubs will be Davante Adams, but I think that it shows that there is something to work with there.  And would you say that, elusive/swervy/explosive that DC's are that afraid of single-covering, describes James Jones? No DCs were afraid of James Jones.  But he could still make you pay.  So far Doubs has demonstrated qualities of both of those players, that I would say were in my subjective "good" group.

 

 

As for need of a WR, I think it depends on the definition.  The Packers current pass catching group consists of:  Aaron Jones, Christian Watson, and Romeo Doubs, that have any kind of significant production.  So it is almost a guarantee that the WR, and TE rooms will be added to.  It doesn't necessarily mean that we are going to spend 3 top 100 picks on them and forego all other options.  There are plenty of options that will produce if given enough targets.  That isn't ideal, but we shouldn't be taking round 4 prospects in round 2, just because a position group is needy.  

 

[craig]

Dave, Jones is an interesting suggestion for Doubs.  I hope Doubs ends up even better, but that's more hope than probability, given the quality of Jones' career.  But yeah, *IF* you said Jones is what Doubs will become, I'd both say "great" but would still suggest we'd want/need another high-quality receiver.  Don't imagine Watson and Jones is the 1-2 punch that you want.  Jones was most effective in a 3rd-WR landscape, which was his situation for most of his career.  And yeah, for me, I'd like 3 guys who could make a DC nervous to single-cover them.  

Obviously we're going to add a body to the room.  It's not whether, it's where.  I think Green19 had been wondering how much of a priority it was to invest a high pick, perhaps even as high as #15, to add a really good WR, and whether it would be superfluous to do so given that we've already got Doubs.  It will not be a priority that cause any deviation from BPA, whether in round 1 or 2 or 3.  But neither would it be a value that would be superfluous were we to add an excellent receiver in addition to Watson-Doubs.  It's not like Love and MLF couldn't do a TON in terms of play calling and play design and keeping drives rolling with an additional gifted WR.  

In terms of the room, I still imagine it's possible that we'll add the Jets guy to the room, too.  MLF wants his veteran, and he's going to get one somewhere or other. It's just a question of how much $$ and whether that vet is any good or is just a den mother.  

[Brit Pack]

5 hours ago, squire12 said:

I agree it is hard to hit on a high % of draft picks.  Just because it is hard doesn't mean teams should not try to improve their process.  

I really wonder if have NFL team's draft successes improved over time as more data analytics has become available and there are more statistical models? Or is it that the number of draft hits per year is always pretty consistent? I recall doing some research a while back and over a ten year period the number of draft hits (really good players) hovered around 10% -15% or about 25 to 35 players in any year. I wonder if that was the same 30 years ago? 

 

[R T]

5 minutes ago, Brit Pack said:

I really wonder if have NFL team's draft successes improved over time as more data analytics has become available and there are more statistical models? Or is it that the number of draft hits per year is always pretty consistent? I recall doing some research a while back and over a ten year period the number of draft hits (really good players) hovered around 10% -15% or about 25 to 35 players in any year. I wonder if that was the same 30 years ago? 

 

Each time someone has success someone else fails. Someone scores a TD someone else allowed a TD. Someone makes a INT someone else threw an INT. There are only so many seats at the table of success. 

[squire12]

12 minutes ago, Brit Pack said:

I really wonder if have NFL team's draft successes improved over time as more data analytics has become available and there are more statistical models? Or is it that the number of draft hits per year is always pretty consistent? I recall doing some research a while back and over a ten year period the number of draft hits (really good players) hovered around 10% -15% or about 25 to 35 players in any year. I wonder if that was the same 30 years ago? 

 

what is often looked at are the +/- of the players drafted by a team, in most cases their favorite team.  what you don't get a chance to see is how they rated all players.  you don't know how many players a specific team/GM certainly wouldn't have picked based on their scouting and analysis.  You also don't know what players a specific team/GM would have picked if they had the opportunity to do so.

Take GB as an example. We don't know what players were on their board and where they were ranked.  all we see is what players they did pick and in some respect what players that were picked were preferred over those within the next 3-5, maybe 10 picks.  any inference beyond that is pure speculation

[Brit Pack]

Here is an interesting experiment, based on the idea of is picking a player's name out of a hat more likely or less likely to equal a good player. Went to this random selection generator site.  https://www.textfixer.com/tools/random-choice.php

I put in the top 100 players as per Yahoo Sport (easiest to copy and paste), I took out the top 14 players as we are not picking in the top 14 and I got the generator to randomly select four players, assuming the Packers have 4 picks in the top 100 selections (additional pick from the Jets). 

Here is what I got:
Houston WR Tank Dell (R-Senior, 5-8, 165 lbs)
Florida G O'Cyrus Torrence (Senior, 6-5, 330 lbs)
Georgia CB Kelee Ringo (R-Sophomore, 6-2, 207 lbs)
Florida DT Gervon Dexter (Junior, 6-6, 310 lbs)

It would be interesting to see do randomly selected players based on no tape watching, no analysis, perform better than the players the Packers end up selecting.

 

[PackFan13]

4 hours ago, ThatJerkDave said:

My sell job for you on Doubs will be two fold.  His rookie production, and the rookie production for Davante Adams were very similar.  That doesn't mean that Doubs will be Davante Adams, but I think that it shows that there is something to work with there. 

 

Adams was competing with Jordy and Cobb for snaps/balls. They had 2800 yards and over 180 catches between them. I'd love to see the snap count comparison between them, I feel like Doubs was getting more snaps per game due to Watson being injured and everyone not named Lazard being bad. Adams was also a significantly higherly touted as a prospect. I think Doubs can be good but he's got a lot of prove. The biggest similarity thus far to Adams is dropping too many passes.

Edited April 22, 2023 by PackFan13

[ThatJerkDave]

48 minutes ago, PackFan13 said:

Adams was competing with Jordy and Cobb for snaps/balls. They had 2800 yards and over 180 catches between them. I'd love to see the snap count comparison between them, I feel like Doubs was getting more snaps per game due to Watson being injured and everyone not named Lazard being bad. Adams was also a significantly higherly touted as a prospect. I think Doubs can be good but he's got a lot of prove. The biggest similarity thus far to Adams is dropping too many passes.

Davante Adams:  https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/A/AdamDa01.htm

Romeo Doubs: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/D/DoubRo00.htm

 

66 targets vs 67 targets

446 yards vs 425 yards

38 rec vs 42 rec

3 TD vs 3 TD

16 games 11 starts vs 13 games 7 starts

738 snaps (70%) vs 529 snaps (62%)

57.6 catch % vs 62.7 catch %

 

Left is Adams, right is Doubs.  Rookie seasons only.  

 

Give the guy a little time to develop.  He was a 4th round rookie, who lit up camp, played well in season, and battled some injuries along the way.  Doubs will be more than adequate, if he puts in the necessary offseason work.  And there is nothing to suggest that he won't.  He was 10th among rookies in receiving yards, ahead of a lot of guys picked before him.  

If you guys don't think Doubs is part of the plan, or not good enough, I just don't know what you expect.  

[Green19]

3 hours ago, craig said:

Dave, Jones is an interesting suggestion for Doubs.  I hope Doubs ends up even better, but that's more hope than probability, given the quality of Jones' career.  But yeah, *IF* you said Jones is what Doubs will become, I'd both say "great" but would still suggest we'd want/need another high-quality receiver.  Don't imagine Watson and Jones is the 1-2 punch that you want.  Jones was most effective in a 3rd-WR landscape, which was his situation for most of his career.  And yeah, for me, I'd like 3 guys who could make a DC nervous to single-cover them.  

Obviously we're going to add a body to the room.  It's not whether, it's where.  I think Green19 had been wondering how much of a priority it was to invest a high pick, perhaps even as high as #15, to add a really good WR, and whether it would be superfluous to do so given that we've already got Doubs.  It will not be a priority that cause any deviation from BPA, whether in round 1 or 2 or 3.  But neither would it be a value that would be superfluous were we to add an excellent receiver in addition to Watson-Doubs.  It's not like Love and MLF couldn't do a TON in terms of play calling and play design and keeping drives rolling with an additional gifted WR.  

In terms of the room, I still imagine it's possible that we'll add the Jets guy to the room, too.  MLF wants his veteran, and he's going to get one somewhere or other. It's just a question of how much $$ and whether that vet is any good or is just a den mother.  

I think at this point I want a TE early more than a WR. I’m a Mayer guy, because he feels like Jason Witten 2.0… and I will take that all day.

I value the diversity of positional attacking. Don’t get me wrong there are other TEs I like too laporta or Washington in the second are fine too. Just like Mayer… and would enjoy a trade down and getting him at like 26ish.

Then get a Rice, Perry, or Wicks in the second to fifth rounds is good enough for me.

Going into next year with Watson, Doubs, Rice and Mayer…. That sounds really good to me. And that’s a great group to age with Love.