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Cwood is a nerd and so are all the Packer Favorite Prospects: 2023 Draft Discussion Thread


MacReady

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3 hours ago, PossibleCabbage said:

I don't think Washington is a better TE prospect than Hockenson, and Hockenson got seriously overdrafted.

I don't agree with this (Hockenson being overdrafted)

Hockenson was a Pro Bowl TE in 2020 - his 2nd year in the league.   He was on pace to exceed his 2020 numbers after 12 gms in '21 until his season ended after a thumb injury and he missed the last 5 gms.   He then increased his numbers further in 2022 to 86 916 6.     Among league-wide TE's he finished 2022 with the 2nd most receptions, 2nd most yards and 5th most TD's.   He was named to his 2nd Pro Bowl in 4 seasons   (would have been 3 in a row if he hadn't been hurt '21)

I think his run-blocking numbers have fallen well short of expectations, but it's hard to beat the rest of his production. 

Having a draft pick being named to 2 Pro Bowls in 4 seasons (only an injury affecting a 3rd honor) and finishing top 2 at their position in the counting stats seems like a pretty good return.      I don't believe anyone on this board would be upset at taking a TE #15 If they KNEW Washington, or Mayer, or Kincaid, etc would be a Pro Bowler every year under contract except their rookie season 

 

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11 hours ago, Kampfgeist said:

I don't agree with this (Hockenson being overdrafted)

Hockenson was a Pro Bowl TE in 2020 - his 2nd year in the league.   He was on pace to exceed his 2020 numbers after 12 gms in '21 until his season ended after a thumb injury and he missed the last 5 gms.   He then increased his numbers further in 2022 to 86 916 6.     Among league-wide TE's he finished 2022 with the 2nd most receptions, 2nd most yards and 5th most TD's.   He was named to his 2nd Pro Bowl in 4 seasons   (would have been 3 in a row if he hadn't been hurt '21)

I think his run-blocking numbers have fallen well short of expectations, but it's hard to beat the rest of his production. 

Having a draft pick being named to 2 Pro Bowls in 4 seasons (only an injury affecting a 3rd honor) and finishing top 2 at their position in the counting stats seems like a pretty good return.      I don't believe anyone on this board would be upset at taking a TE #15 If they KNEW Washington, or Mayer, or Kincaid, etc would be a Pro Bowler every year under contract except their rookie season 

 

Yeah, I get it, but the Lions are a team that is rising nicely.  Hock isn't old, at all, and they'd rather trade him to a division rival than pay him.  Think about that...it isn't just that he was traded, it was who he was traded to.

It doesn't add up.  If he was that good and moved the needle, he should be a cornerstone for them.  And instead they moved on, kind of quickly.

And Pro Bowls to me mean nothing.  Insert some stats in there for those rookie Te's coming out in lieu of Pro Bowls and I feel like your argument has more merit.

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33 minutes ago, vegas492 said:

Yeah, I get it, but the Lions are a team that is rising nicely.  Hock isn't old, at all, and they'd rather trade him to a division rival than pay him.  Think about that...it isn't just that he was traded, it was who he was traded to.

It doesn't add up.  If he was that good and moved the needle, he should be a cornerstone for them.  And instead they moved on, kind of quickly.

And Pro Bowls to me mean nothing.  Insert some stats in there for those rookie Te's coming out in lieu of Pro Bowls and I feel like your argument has more merit.

He was only traded 7 gms into the season because DET was going nowhere sitting at 1-6 and they were looking to recoup some future assets while avoiding his $14-$18mil/per contract after 2023.   They traded him as a valuable asset so they could get a 2nd rnd pick and another potential good pick next yr - perhaps get some additional ammo in case they needed to move on from Goff.   I don't believe they would have moved him if they would have known they'd go 8-2 rest of way and have great hope for a competitive 2023.

I agree Pro Bowl honors aren't the end-all be-all (see all 6 QBs in the Pro Bowl this year) however Hock wasn't an alternate, he didn't make it because some other player didn't want to go or was injured.  He earned his spot.  

As for inserting some stats -- please re-read my post, you'll find them there I promise.

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3 minutes ago, Kampfgeist said:

He was only traded 7 gms into the season because DET was going nowhere sitting at 1-6 and they were looking to recoup some future assets while avoiding his $14-$18mil/per contract after 2023.   They traded him as a valuable asset so they could get a 2nd rnd pick and another potential good pick next yr - perhaps get some additional ammo in case they needed to move on from Goff.   I don't believe they would have moved him if they would have known they'd go 8-2 rest of way and have great hope for a competitive 2023.

I agree Pro Bowl honors aren't the end-all be-all (see all 6 QBs in the Pro Bowl this year) however Hock wasn't an alternate, he didn't make it because some other player didn't want to go or was injured.  He earned his spot.  

As for inserting some stats -- please re-read my post, you'll find them there I promise.

Wait.  So this young team won more games without a great TE on the roster????

You'd think that a player that good would have equated to more wins.  

The logic just isn't there.

As I said, I get it, he's a fine player.  But outside of Kelce and Gronk, and maybe Kittle, TE's don't move the needle much.  Drafting one high in the first and paying them top dollars is a really risky move.

The Lions already made one mistake in drafting him there.  They were smart in not doubling down on their mistake.  And it isn't the player, it is the position.

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19 minutes ago, vegas492 said:

Wait.  So this young team won more games without a great TE on the roster????

You'd think that a player that good would have equated to more wins.  

 

IN 2021 - GB went 13-3 without Bakh, and only 4 gms from Jaire and 8 from Jenkins.  With all three playing extensively in 2022 we went 8-9.     It is your assertion then that GB would be as good, if not better without those players?     

You'd think players that good would have equated to more wins.    

Your argument is a logical fallacy.

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8 minutes ago, Arthur Penske said:

I don’t know much about him as a prospect but I want as many MFers with this attitude in my team as possible

 

 

 

Rated as a likely 3rd round pick. Packers should still draft him there. https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/players/2023/andrew-vorhees As a Packers 3rd round pick, he wouldn't be expected to do anything this year anyway. 

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Just now, Brat&Beer said:

Rated as a likely 3rd round pick. Packers should still draft him there. https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/players/2023/andrew-vorhees As a Packers 3rd round pick, he wouldn't be expected to do anything this year anyway. 

If GB took him in the 3rd, he’d tear his other ACL walking around the house or something. 

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6 minutes ago, Brat&Beer said:

Seriously though, I'd take him in the 5th. 

It would be very similar to when they selected Simon Stepaniak in the 6th round in 2020. Going into his final season at Indiana, Stepaniak was viewed as a 3rd-4th round pick, but when it became known that his rookie season would be lost, he ended up in the 6th to the Packers. That pretty much describes Vorhees. 

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1 hour ago, Kampfgeist said:

IN 2021 - GB went 13-3 without Bakh, and only 4 gms from Jaire and 8 from Jenkins.  With all three playing extensively in 2022 we went 8-9.     It is your assertion then that GB would be as good, if not better without those players?     

You'd think players that good would have equated to more wins.    

Your argument is a logical fallacy.

We also won a Super Bowl with how many guys on IR?

I mean, I get it.  But we didn't trade Bakh, or Jenkins or Jaire, so obviously the club saw them as cornerstones to the team.  In fact, they paid large sums of money to retain Jaire and Jenkins.

The Lions looked at Hock and said, naw.  Then went out and won a lot of games.

Why?  Maybe because a good to great tight end is not a needle mover in terms of wins and losses.  Maybe elite TE's are, but there are very, very few truly elite TE's.

I think you could argue that Jaire is as good a corner as Hoch was a tight end, right?  The issue is not the player, it is the position.

I don't think that guards are all that valuable, but we saw what happened when Jenkins went to LG and our entire line got better because of it.  And...a solid O-line does lead to wins.

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