Offseason Thread

[Crimmage]

O'Brien is much more likely to get something out of Jonnu Smith, so I don't think they cut him. Henry you've got to try and trade to get something for him... if a team is trying to win a championship maybe you're able to trade him for a 4th, but given his contract you probably won't unless it's a camp trade. 

 

If you're just talking about Henry the player.. he's an average pass catcher and below average blocker. You can get that in the draft.. this draft is stacked with day 2/3 TE's. 

• Dalton Kincaid (2nd Round)
• Luke Musgrave (2nd Round)
• Darnell Washington (2nd Round)
• Tucker Kraft (Day 2) 
• Sam LaPorta (Day 2) 
• Cade Stover (2nd-4th)
• Luke Schoonmaker (Day 3)
• Cameron Latu (Day 3) 
• Zack Kuntz (Day 3) 

I would take ANY of those guys over having Hunter Henry next season. I could see O'Brien wanting Latu in the 4th/5th given his relationship with him. 

 

I LOVE Kincaid, I think he's going to be awesome.. if O'Brien really wants to fix TE you: 

- Trade back in first slightly to pick up an extra 3rd/4th

- Take a LT in the first

- Trade up in the 2nd using those extra picks to take Kincaid

 

You'll miss out on top WR's that way.. (JSN/Addison/Flowers) but this is assuming O'Brien wants a TE more. 

 

I would love JSN in the first ... but i'm admittedly nervous about finding a day 1 starter at LT on day 2. 

 

This of course all depends on the coaching staff ( do they trust Brown) and the Free Agent Class.. 

 

But you're there at 14, do you take: 

JSN/Addison or Broderick Jones/Anton Harrison

 

We can almost guarantee a combination of two of those players will be there for them to decide between. 

Edited January 25, 2023 by Crimmage

[DoleINGout]

1 hour ago, ChazStandard said:

Aaron Hernandez played with Welker and Gronk, it didn’t stop him producing. I don’t like signing players on the assumption of untapped value, how often does that work out? Wes Welker is about it.

You’re comparing a hall of fame caliber, diverse skill set, prime Aaron Hernandez in his early-mid twenties to an injury prone, over the hill, one dimensional Hunter Henry. They’re used are completely different because Hernandez could get open and get YAC at an elite level so scheming to him was easy in terms of accumulating yards and catches.

Edited January 25, 2023 by DoleINGout

[DoleINGout]

29 minutes ago, Crimmage said:

O'Brien is much more likely to get something out of Jonnu Smith, so I don't think they cut him.

That and there is no financial incentive to cut him at this point, in fact it’s incentive to keep him on the roster. He’s stuck here one more year. It would be a surprise if he is outright cut at any point in 2023. Perhaps he will be traded after June 1st so that the Pats incur only a $6 million cap hit but with a $10 million saving although that necessitates some team being interested and paying him. Unlikely but possible maybe before the trade deadline. A restructured deal would save $4.5 million. So that could be the route they go with Jonnu Smith if O’Brien doesn’t mold him into a productive H-back pass catcher specialist out of the backfield. Hopefully he improves as a blocker.

Edited January 25, 2023 by DoleINGout

[Crimmage]

Agreed, Jonnu has had the highest YAC for a TE two years in a row.. he isn't used here. He's not a traditional TE, I have no idea what they expected him to be when they signed him. You need to put an emphasis on getting him the ball or just waste another year of his career then cut him next season. Jonnu and a rookie would do well, especially one who is an average/above average blocker because they haven't had one of those in a couple years now.

 

They save 10.5M cutting/trading Hunter Henry. How anyone thinks he is worth that amount is beyond me. That's starting RT money, I would happily trade Henry for McGlinchey. 

 

Trent Brown is the next guy.. you save 11M cutting/trading him. Now I think it's much harder to replace him so I'm not sure I would do it.. but I would trade Trent Brown's salary for say Jessie Bates or Tremaine Edmunds/ Bobby Okereke/David Long. It seems like a foregone conclusion they will probably pick a LT at 14, so might as well try to trade Brown for peanuts and improve the roster with his cap space. 

 

That's without going into the 34 Million they already have in cap space. 

 

 

[Soko]

Obviously Meyers, Jon Jones, and McCourty (if he doesn’t retire) are set to be FAs, but I think there needs to be some real thought into extending players with a year left on their deals. 

Trent, Bourne, Parker, and Henry are, at worst, going to play out those deals. No one’s going to extend them, if they’re even retained for 2023 at all. But Onwenu has been a staple, he’s set to go in 2024. Bentley came off of an absolutely awesome season. Dugger’s set to go. Uche’s finally put it together. I doubt NE wants to walk into 2024 with none of those guys locked up. Some of the money this year needs to go to a few of these guys IMO.

[m haynes]

18 hours ago, Crimmage said:

You'll miss out on top WR's that way..

BOB was the Bama OC last year right.

So I assumed  he was at the Tenn game. Well that another added benefit signing him. He got to see  Hyatt explode for 5 TDs  He was seen at the game with his jaw on the floor.

BB  you have to believe me, I have never seen any thing like it, he destroyed our NFL secondary!!!!!!!!!!!!!  😮

Edited January 25, 2023 by m haynes

[m haynes]

Jonnu Smith stinks. 

He was nothing special with the Titans and has done any thing since the

Has all the physicals but has no clue what he doing.  Also his hand are not reliable.

I love when he catches the ball facing the QB than back paddling down field. Turn stupid!!!!

[DoleINGout]

1 hour ago, Crimmage said:

It seems like a foregone conclusion they will probably pick a LT at 14

Nothing is a foregone conclusion though. I could see them going just about any position at 14 besides K/P/LS.

[m haynes]

1 hour ago, Crimmage said:

But you're there at 14, do you take: 

JSN/Addison or Broderick Jones/Anton Harrison

i would be screaming bloody murder if the took any of these players at 14. 

There talent isn't any thing close to 14th pick.  I like all the players but Harrison however much lower in the 1st.

Also  JSN is a slot guy only at the next level. Unless he beats his current 4.5 forty.   Both Ol are on the bench for the 1st year. lets would be destroyed staring as rookies. Jones is 6'4 and has played like 12/ 14 games at OT. He's raw as heck.

TRADE, TRADE, TRADE the value is just not their.

Players if we can't make a trade.  I don't care if it our 1st for a 1st and 2nd only. Even if it to the mid 20's.  After the 10/12 picks the players  are all the (rating) same, it just what flavor do you want. 

I have said it from the beginning CBs are the class of this draft.  I want to walk out with one of them because they make a impact on day one, I don't see it with the  guys you mention. Filling need is great but i'm not reaching over IMO better prospects.  Also Jack Jones is hopefully traded. JSN will have a impact but only at slot something you can get later. I not taking a slot at 14 with so many needs. IMO we have crap TEs  and major holes in the secondary.  We are looking at three of the best DBs in the draft.

Christian Gonzalez  --  Many say he's the top of the class. Guarantee starter.

Devon Witherspoon ---  Tremendous in zone (best I've seen in a while) and has overall game. And he's a big time leader, that's a major need.

Michael Mayer  ----  He's All World and he gives you so much more than any WR at 14. He creates mismatches, LB can't cover him,  work the field, short and long. Give Mac a big target and is a great weapon in the Red Zone. With him working the middle it will open up so much for the others.  I hate taking a TE in the 1st especially at 14 however this draft give me no choice.  Think Kelce.  You watch them and their WRs are a after thought, our fit right in!!!!

Brian Branch  Perfect fit for the Pats.  Does it all. Can play any where in the secondary.

 

 

 

 

 

[DoleINGout]

2 hours ago, Yin-Yang said:

Obviously Meyers, Jon Jones, and McCourty (if he doesn’t retire) are set to be FAs, but I think there needs to be some real thought into extending players with a year left on their deals. 

Trent, Bourne, Parker, and Henry are, at worst, going to play out those deals. No one’s going to extend them, if they’re even retained for 2023 at all. But Onwenu has been a staple, he’s set to go in 2024. Bentley came off of an absolutely awesome season. Dugger’s set to go. Uche’s finally put it together. I doubt NE wants to walk into 2024 with none of those guys locked up. Some of the money this year needs to go to a few of these guys IMO.

I don’t think any of those players need to be locked up but the one I see most likely based on progression is Kyle Dugger. Onwenu seemed to be in and out of the lineup and they like to develop guards historically with this regime so it wouldn’t surprise me if he isn’t extended. But Onwenu would be a re-sign in 2023 candidate as would Bentley. Uche is a gamble still, but did come on strong. I wouldn’t overpay him or even give him market value tbh. A pass rusher like him isn’t hard to come by with a vet or the draft. He’s a secondary edge rusher role player right now at best and a dominate DT is a higher value. Could see Da’Ron Payne or Zach Allen in free agency possibly at the higher end of splash signings.

[Soko]

18 minutes ago, DoleINGout said:

Onwenu seemed to be in and out of the lineup

He was 5th in snaps amongst OL for the team in 2021 and played the most offensive snaps of any player on the team last year (99.43%). 

18 minutes ago, DoleINGout said:

they like to develop guards historically with this regime so it wouldn’t surprise me if he isn’t extended.

Like Shaq? NE’s not afraid to go younger (let Thuney walk…because of Onwenu) but there’s no guards on the roster that comes close to what Onwenu’s shown. He’s better than Andrews at this point and the best OL on the team. With Andrews getting older & missing time, Strange finishing an up and down rookie campaign, and two tackle spots wide open, it seems pretty hopeful that Onwenu just magically becomes expendable.

18 minutes ago, DoleINGout said:

But Onwenu would be a re-sign in 2023 candidate as would Bentley.

Bad business to wait for all your guys to be free agents before extending them. 

18 minutes ago, DoleINGout said:

Uche is a gamble still, but did come on strong. I wouldn’t overpay him or even give him market value tbh. A pass rusher like him isn’t hard to come by with a vet or the draft.

Lol.

Because NE’s been absolutely swimming in pass rushers. At least with OL/guard there’s history there, who was the last pass rusher that was drafted here and played well here? Chandler, and even then he played worse in NE than Arizona?

He’s one that I think you let play out because thus far it’s only been one year, but it’s absolutely crazy talk that he’s “not hard to come by”. If he has another big season it’ll cost the team, but I think they’ll be patient there.

18 minutes ago, DoleINGout said:

and a dominate DT is a higher value. Could see Da’Ron Payne or Zach Allen in free agency possibly at the higher end of splash signings.

Zach Allen’s a dominant tackle but Uche and Onwenu aren’t hard to come by…?

Sheesh…

Payne would be cool, but the likelihood of that being a realistic FA splash signing is pretty low.

[DoleINGout]

58 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said:

He was 5th in snaps amongst OL for the team in 2021 and played the most offensive snaps of any player on the team last year (99.43%). 

Talking pre-2022. They toyed with his usage and position often.

58 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said:

it seems pretty hopeful that Onwenu just magically becomes expendable.

Hopeful? I don’t want or agree with the notion Onwenu is expendable per say. I just wouldn’t be surprised if the Pats thought the best course of action was to wait beyond 2023. Extending Onwenu now is wise in my opinion so long as he isn’t getting paid top 10 tackle dollars or resetting the market at guard.

58 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said:

Bad business to wait for all your guys to be free agents before extending them. 

Pats/Bill Belichick’s track record of good business has been shaky for a little while now.

58 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said:

Lol.

Because NE’s been absolutely swimming in pass rushers.

A rusher like Uche isn’t had to come by, but that doesn’t mean NE’s drafting or usage/development has demonstrated having a great eye for it.

58 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said:

If he has another big season it’ll cost the team, but I think they’ll be patient there.

We agree they’ll likely be patient with Uche then, however we disagree it seems on the nature of it costing them. Yes it will cost a lot of money to retain Uche it appears based on the second half of 2022 alone, but no I don’t think it would be as costly as you do if Uche gets that money elsewhere assuming they invest that money into a dominant interior defensive lineman instead.

58 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said:

Payne would be cool, but the likelihood of that being a realistic FA splash signing is pretty low.

Meh, the Pats splash every couple years or so. They’ll probably be aggressive this year if I had to bet.

and yeah, Zach Allen is an emerging front seven player with steady improvement each season. JJ Watt’s tutelage is apparent and it’s not hard to project Allen to continue to grow into a stronger player. That said , what I labeled Allen was a “splash signing” and he will be for some team this off-season. He is a higher end free agent kind of like a Trey Hendrickson from the Saints to the Bengals a couple years ago but less burst off the edge and more versatility between interior and end.

Edited January 25, 2023 by DoleINGout

[LD696]

8 hours ago, ChazStandard said:

Aaron Hernandez played with Welker and Gronk, it didn’t stop him producing. I don’t like signing players on the assumption of untapped value, how often does that work out? Wes Welker is about it.

Depends on the price. The main line of reasoning by Dole, that I agreed with, was that he would replace Henry's production at a lower salary. If he can do that (and the difference was ~90 yards in 2022, so it's not exactly impossible), the team is better off. If he can provide more, as I believe he can, at that cheaper price, even better.

[m haynes]

In general I agree with @Yin-Yang however its hard to do that with this team because the talent is just not there to give, let say, big contracts. There's not one I would say, we have to sign him to today market dollars.

Here my thought on four players mentioned.

Bentley is a good two down LB-er that has struggle covering the outside on passing plays. He did much better this year however we are comparing his current play to his past. In the NFL he's  ( figure of speech) easy to replace.  I would resign, if it a reasonable contract however the Pats should dictate the terms.  I say no to early "lock up" contract.

Dugger  He will be a 27 yr old box safety next year who is nothing special in coverage which is the major part of today's game. He's over all a good player. IMO this is a big need in the draft. The age is a big factor along with Philips.  IMO I would sign him to a good contract but not break the bank. I think he will cost to much however i think BB will sign him. and over pay. EX,  I look at this on a smaller scale. Let's Seymour go, shouldn't he do the same here with Dugger. Yes the money different but circumstance are the same.

  ADDED  There is no way I'm comparing him talent wise to Big C. 

                 Dugger would be crazy not to go to the highest bidder and look for big bucks. He's yet to make any money for his future.

Uche    Hasn't shown enough to lock him down. If you look at his history I would say he's a risk health wise. None us really  know if it was his talent or other reasons for his sack numbers this year. Ex against the Bill he was playing against a LT with one leg injured.  Also how to judge the Judon factor in relation to his play. His injury history is a major concern many times if involves his legs.

He reminds me of a Hyena.  Prays on the weak but needs the pack to survive. Yes I said that !!!!😁 .  MOF most of the Pats players are Hyena's Off the top head, I think we have only three lions.  Stevenson, Judon and Barmore.  The coaches tape is a big factor and what he's asking for, I don't brake the bank to risky.

Onwenu   OG are a dime a dozen and you spend only so much for the position. Thurney contract... bye. Major mistake letting Ferris go for short money is you don't have young guy in waiting, still a head scratcher.  BB "I know we can draft a OG IN THE !ST RD".

I say Onwenu is a good OG becasue we didn't hear his name called this year however he's nothing special .  There is no need to lock him up. You sign him on Pats term or he walks.  I was impressed with Hines last year as a rookie, my guess ,he could step right  in and the Pats would not miss at beat. Pats sign on their terms.

The Pats roster has a lot to be desired. Hopefully that has changed since Kraft demanded changes. So far Groh has done well. I wonder if he could do better if BB wasn't involved at all.  IMO Strange was a BB influenced pick. It the only reason for the pick. Jordan Richards and Trevon Wilson say hi!!!  Yes I know they were 2nd picks but same out of left field approach.

 

Edited January 25, 2023 by m haynes

[Hunter2_1]

I really don't like Bentley. I think we need to upgrade there. Dugger is crucial, I'd be looking to prioritize him. Same for Onwenu. Uche was good down stretch, but I don't consider him key or anything.