Random Bears Thoughts - Offseason Thread

[JibjeResearch]

9 hours ago, dll2000 said:

My fix for trenches in 2023 - just ran this mock in a simulator.

9.

Paris Johnson Jr.

OT Ohio State

53.

Will McDonald IV

EDGE Iowa State

61.

Tuli Tuipulotu

EDGE USC

64.

Joe Tippmann

OC Wisconsin

Then draft a big NT as well.  We need another big 1/0.  

Ideally, I would like AA from NW to play 3 to pair with an edge over Tuli having already taken McDonald - but he was taken.  

But we need some combination of top 3 OT, a good Edge, one of top 3 centers, a 3 tech, a big NT.

 

Will McDonald IV will need to add 10lbs, and DeMarcus Walker will need to add 5 to 10lbs to be a full time DT.  This should work for this year.  Good Mock 👍

[WindyCity]

1 hour ago, TankWilliams said:

He clearly has the mentality that overpaying in free agency is not worth the short term benefit.  Either way, I think you are being a little hard on Poles, and he's got lots of flexibility still.  This close to the draft, we aren't going to see a lot of signings.  Everyone is biding their time until they see how the draft goes.  Not to mention that I think having Nate Davis in at guard and having Whitehair at C is a pretty significant upgrade over last years interior, even if Whitehair isn't great he's a huge upgrade over Mustipher.  There definitely needs to be more development there, but I don't think spending big money on guys like McGlinchey who really aren't that good is a great idea.  

He has the draft. If that doesn’t work he deserves criticism.

It was his choice to put this much pressure on the draft.

Even in your optimistic assessment there are a lot of “ifs”.

[WindyCity]

Last season the OL was horrific… but you could argue that the resources were limited. Even with that I think they were worse than they needed to be.

This season there is no restriction on resources. They had the top pick in the draft and 100 million in cap space. They had they most stocked cupboard in the league.

If you cannot build a decent OL with those resources that is on the GM.

[The_Romen]

12 hours ago, Ty21 said:

I love that I’m still remembered for this lol

Some of the most creative, inspiring, insulting and insane writing to ever grace my eyes. A true wordsmith.

[AZBearsFan]

18 minutes ago, WindyCity said:

Last season the OL was horrific… but you could argue that the resources were limited. Even with that I think they were worse than they needed to be.

This season there is no restriction on resources. They had the top pick in the draft and 100 million in cap space. They had they most stocked cupboard in the league.

If you cannot build a decent OL with those resources that is on the GM.

For what it’s worth, would you have given more than $20M annually to Jawaan Taylor to top the KC deal? More than $50M fully guaranteed to McGlinchey? Just because you have huge cap money doesn’t mean it’s a good idea to spend it frivolously. McGary’s deal among the “top OTs” in FA was the only real palatable one signed, and realistically he’s had 1 solid year in 4 seasons and it happened to be in his contract year, so he would’ve come with a great deal of risk too.

FA has played out as though Poles is expecting to invest heavily in the draft at OT for sure, maybe at C, and likely on the DL as well. He’s said as much about the OL. So long as he does what he’s postured to do and said he will do and invests a significant pick at OT it’ll be hard for me to fault him for that. For me it was always a big ticket free agent OR a high pick, and one of those is still available to him. 

[BEAR FACE DOWN ARROW]

7 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

For what it’s worth, would you have given more than $20M annually to Jawaan Taylor to top the KC deal? More than $50M fully guaranteed to McGlinchey? Just because you have huge cap money doesn’t mean it’s a good idea to spend it frivolously. McGary’s deal among the “top OTs” in FA was the only real palatable one signed, and realistically he’s had 1 solid year in 4 seasons and it happened to be in his contract year, so he would’ve come with a great deal of risk too.

FA has played out as though Poles is expecting to invest heavily in the draft at OT for sure, maybe at C, and likely on the DL as well. He’s said as much about the OL. So long as he does what he’s postured to do and said he will do and invests a significant pick at OT it’ll be hard for me to fault him for that. For me it was always a big ticket free agent OR a high pick, and one of those is still available to him. 

I would have been fine with an overpay and overlong contract to have a full OL going into the draft. Would have made bpa a real thing while still making sure we can develop a functional offense around Fields. Let's say we pay an extra 6m this year and 14 over the contract to get average OT play. Would we really be hurting now or in the future?

It's where we are though, and the value should be good to grab a tackle with pick 9 so I hope we don't overthink it and give Fields a thousand yard season before he throws

[Ty21]

35 minutes ago, BEAR FACE DOWN ARROW said:

I would have been fine with an overpay and overlong contract to have a full OL going into the draft. Would have made bpa a real thing while still making sure we can develop a functional offense around Fields. Let's say we pay an extra 6m this year and 14 over the contract to get average OT play. Would we really be hurting now or in the future?

It's where we are though, and the value should be good to grab a tackle with pick 9 so I hope we don't overthink it and give Fields a thousand yard season before he throws

Just because we have money doesn’t mean we need to blow it on bad deals. It’s entirely possible Jawaan Taylor’s step up this year directly correlated with Trevor Lawrence having a fringe elite TTT. A lot of Fields’ plays are long developing. Do you think Taylor would look like a $20m a year RT in those instances?

[TankWilliams]

9 hours ago, WindyCity said:

He has the draft. If that doesn’t work he deserves criticism.

It was his choice to put this much pressure on the draft.

Even in your optimistic assessment there are a lot of “ifs”.

What ifs were there? I said "even if whitehair isn't great, he's an improvement over mustipher".  I didn't say "If Whitehair suddenly grows 3 inch longer arms and gets bench press lessons from Larry Allen he's going to great"

[AZBearsFan]

44 minutes ago, BEAR FACE DOWN ARROW said:

I would have been fine with an overpay and overlong contract to have a full OL going into the draft. Would have made bpa a real thing while still making sure we can develop a functional offense around Fields. Let's say we pay an extra 6m this year and 14 over the contract to get average OT play. Would we really be hurting now or in the future?

It's where we are though, and the value should be good to grab a tackle with pick 9 so I hope we don't overthink it and give Fields a thousand yard season before he throws

This is really where I’m at with it too. I would’ve been fine with going with FA relative knowns on the OL over emphasizing the draft too and even suggested we do so in pre-FA mocks, but just because it would’ve made sense to do it that way doesn’t mean that it doesn’t make sense to go primarily the draft route too. The problem with doing it this way is that, since FA and the draft aren’t simultaneous, it gives the perception that nothing is being done to address the OT need. 

People shouldn’t act like Poles won’t face scrutiny with either approach though. With the way he chose, if Poles (presumably) drafts a top OT prospect he’s relying a lot on the relative unknown of a rookie at a key spot, which carries with it some risk. Had he gone the other way he’s locking in an overpaid average starter for several years and likely passing on guys who might be significantly better at 25% of the annual cost over the same duration. PJJ, Jones, Skoronski, Harrison and Wright all have the potential to be way better than the known that is McGlinchey. In all likelihood they won’t all won’t end up better than him, but the logic isn’t really that hard to follow at all.

Despite what fans think or want to believe, it’s pretty clear that Poles sees our OL right now with an immediate need for one additional starter at tackle, plus depth/rookie competition. Whether people agree with him or not he’s clearly content with Braxton Jones as a starter at one of the tackle spots this year. He’s also seemingly pretty comfortable with Whitehair/Patrick at C absent a draft pick playing one of them off the roster, and both are obvious upgrades over 900+ snaps of Sam Mustipher at the position even if neither are world beaters or long term solutions. 

[dll2000]

10 hours ago, JibjeResearch said:

Will McDonald IV will need to add 10lbs, and DeMarcus Walker will need to add 5 to 10lbs to be a full time DT.  This should work for this year.  Good Mock 👍

Will is a rather large bust risk, especially for a 4-3 team.  

But there is just something about his game I really like.  He has a tenacity about him others don’t have.  If Jalen Carter had it, he would be next Aaron Donald.

[Ty21]

47 minutes ago, TankWilliams said:

What ifs were there? I said "even if whitehair isn't great, he's an improvement over mustipher".  I didn't say "If Whitehair suddenly grows 3 inch longer arms and gets bench press lessons from Larry Allen he's going to great"

But can you imagine 

[beardown3231]

47 minutes ago, TankWilliams said:

What ifs were there? I said "even if whitehair isn't great, he's an improvement over mustipher".  I didn't say "If Whitehair suddenly grows 3 inch longer arms and gets bench press lessons from Larry Allen he's going to great"

As a fan base but more importantly as an organization, when will we & they stop settling for "well he's better than the worst C in football so it'll be better by default"

[Ty21]

10 minutes ago, dll2000 said:

Will is a rather large bust risk, especially for a 4-3 team.  

But there is just something about his game I really like.  He has a tenacity about him others don’t have.  If Jalen Carter had it, he would be next Aaron Donald.

If Carter had it, we’d have the second pick. Then we’d have to use the 33rd pick on a WR

[Bigbear72]

23 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

This is really where I’m at with it too. I would’ve been fine with going with FA relative knowns on the OL over emphasizing the draft too and even suggested we do so in pre-FA mocks, but just because it would’ve made sense to do it that way doesn’t mean that it doesn’t make sense to go primarily the draft route too. The problem with doing it this way is that, since FA and the draft aren’t simultaneous, it gives the perception that nothing is being done to address the OT need. 

People shouldn’t act like Poles won’t face scrutiny with either approach though. With the way he chose, if Poles (presumably) drafts a top OT prospect he’s relying a lot on the relative unknown of a rookie at a key spot, which carries with it some risk. Had he gone the other way he’s locking in an overpaid average starter for several years and likely passing on guys who might be significantly better at 25% of the annual cost over the same duration. PJJ, Jones, Skoronski, Harrison and Wright all have the potential to be way better than the known that is McGlinchey. In all likelihood they won’t all won’t end up better than him, but the logic isn’t really that hard to follow at all.

Despite what fans think or want to believe, it’s pretty clear that Poles sees our OL right now with an immediate need for one additional starter at tackle, plus depth/rookie competition. Whether people agree with him or not he’s clearly content with Braxton Jones as a starter at one of the tackle spots this year. He’s also seemingly pretty comfortable with Whitehair/Patrick at C absent a draft pick playing one of them off the roster, and both are obvious upgrades over 900+ snaps of Sam Mustipher at the position even if neither are world beaters or long term solutions. 

So, I have been following this argument ever since Poles took over. I believe it is natural when there is a regime change to want to see immediate changes and if said changes don't occur immediately then the "plan" becomes questioned. Here's the thing though. Like Windy and others have stated we have watched this OL and team for years not put proper resources toward the OL. However, just like it took years to get here it is going to take some time to make the necessary changes to fix things properly and in a more consistent manner. We watched Pace be aggressive every year whether it was the draft or FA. Where did that get us but into bad contracts with nothing to show for it. But now we expect to same approach? Just because Poles isn't doing things exactly like we would hope doesn't mean that his plan is bad. Give me a slow and sustainable plan over being reactionary and giving out bad contracts any day of the week.

[dll2000]

14 hours ago, beardown3231 said:

I'd probably cream myself but McDonald is going to go a lot higher than most people think, imo. He's a fit in KC at 31 to be honest

I’m hoping mocks are right and he falls.  The sims and youtube/podcaster experts don’t think that highly of him.  

I thought all mocks were crazy about Chris Jones, but they were right he went in 2nd.  

Jones is a prototype though.  So that was a head scratcher.  

Will has an undersized frame. The added weight is a bit artificial.  So I can see him slipping based on that trait.  He holds his own against big men though with leverage and speed.  

I like him.