Soggust Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 (edited) Before you just stamp your "yes" and move on, let me make a case to you that I started in the GDT -> Former #1 Overall Pick Had a terrible year bc of one of the worst coaches in history Turned around an abysmal franchise the next year and led them to a playoff win Had of a stretch of half a year of arguably top 3 QB play Has obvious arm talent but some turnover concerns (looking at you fumbles) Went 1TD 1INT and ~200yards in the divisional playoff game to the Chiefs Look At These Stats And Tell Me That Trevor Lawrence is not at the same point Baker Mayfield was when his thread was created Spoiler Career To Date Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass Rush Rush Rush Rush Rush Rk Player From To AV G QBrec Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD Rate Lng Int Sk Yds Y/A AY/A NY/A ANY/A Att Yds TD Y/A Lng 1 Trevor Lawrence 2021 2022 21 34 12-22-0 746 1186 62.9 7754 37 83.4 59 25 59 422 6.5 6.21 5.89 5.58 135 625 7 4.6 26 2 Baker Mayfield 2018 2022 45 72 31-38-0 1386 2259 61.4 16288 102 86.5 89 64 170 1106 7.2 6.84 6.25 5.90 189 660 6 3.5 35 Terrible Year That We Were Supposed To Ignore Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass Rk Player Year G QBrec Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD Rate Lng Int Sk Yds Y/A AY/A NY/A ANY/A 1 Trevor Lawrence 2021 17 3-14-0 359 602 59.6 3641 12 71.9 58 17 32 238 6.0 5.18 5.37 4.54 2 Baker Mayfield 2019 16 6-10-0 317 534 59.4 3827 22 78.8 89 21 40 285 7.2 6.22 6.17 5.29 Breakout Year Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass Rk Player Year G QBrec Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD Rate Lng Int Sk Yds Y/A AY/A NY/A ANY/A 1 Trevor Lawrence 2022 17 9-8-0 387 584 66.3 4113 25 95.2 59 8 27 184 7.0 7.28 6.43 6.66 2 Baker Mayfield 2020 16 11-5-0 305 486 62.8 3563 26 95.9 75 8 26 162 7.3 7.66 6.64 6.96 Amazing Stretch Of Top 3 QB Play For Half A Year Trevor: Games Passing Rushing Scoring Fumbles Year Tm G GS Cmp Att Inc Cmp% Yds TD Int Rate Sk Yds Y/A AY/A Att Yds Y/A TD TD Pts Fmb FL FF FR Yds TD 2022-2022 JAX 9 9 217 319 102 68.03 2288 16 3 101.5 18 115 7.17 7.75 35 181 5.17 4 4 24 5 3 0 0 -3 0 Baker: Games Passing Rushing Receiving Scoring Fumbles Year Tm G GS Cmp Att Inc Cmp% Yds TD Int Rate Sk Yds Y/A AY/A Att Yds Y/A TD Tgt Rec Yds Y/R TD Ctch% Y/Tgt TD Pts Fmb FL FF FR Yds TD 2020-2020 CLE 8 8 157 236 79 66.53 1987 15 2 110.3 7 41 8.42 9.31 33 78 2.36 1 1 1 6 6.00 0 100.0% 6.00 1 6 4 2 0 1 -15 0 Now don't hear what I'm not saying. I don't think Trevor is going to bust or is Baker Mayfield. Baker arguably had more help and less measurables blah blah blah. But the parallels are hard to ignore. Look, I get that Trevor was an exponentially better prospect than Baker. But Baker also had one of the best rookie QB years that we had ever seen at the time. So when we talk about their prospective ability to be great in the NFL, I think that should weigh pretty legitimately against being great in college, despite hindsight proving us wrong. We can debate measurables, but my point is really that we all just expect Trevor to progress next year because "duh he's dope", but there were many who expected Baker to take the next step as well. --- Therefore, I pose to you these questions: Is he top 10 right now? I think he has a good case, but I think it's more so due to a down year in QBs. Mahomes, Burrow, Allen, Hurts, Herbert, Lamar and Dak all have strong arguments imo. I think Cousins, Healthy Tua, Kyler and Carr are statistically debatable. If we consider career, Rodgers, Brady, Russ and Watson have arguments. If we consider this year only (like we do with Trevor), I think Goff + Jones + Geno enter the conversation. Will he CEMENT himself as a top 10 QB going forward? Even if more QBs start producing? I think I'm 75% sure he will. (99% sure he will be top 10 at some point, but I mean an unquestioned top 10 every year for a decade) If you still believe he is top 10, does this make you even 1% more concerned about his ceiling as a top 5 QB? I'm going to say I'm 3% more concerned (Like I was 90% sure he would be a top 5 at some point in his career eventually, so now I'm at 87%). Edited January 22, 2023 by Soggust forgot lamar lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigbadbuff Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 Mahomes Allen Burrow Herbert Rodgers Lamar Hurts are my only definite yes’s over him right now. So yes top ten, and i can easily see him getting into top 5 next year with another step. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AngusMcFife Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 I'd like to see him put together one really good year from start to finish before anointing him. He's just not that consistent so far IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFlaccoSeagulls Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 No. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZ_Eaglesfan Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 I don't think he is a guaranteed top 10 yet no. He is definitely in that range, but he has to build some consistency going forward to lock the spot up. The talent is there, I have no doubt he will get there next year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SodeeWater_Cheezburger Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 He is Top 10 without a doubt. I would like to see him get a true #1 receiver who can go up and make contested catches. Right now, he is playing with 3 slot receiver types. As for Lawrence though, he is Top 10 for sure right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xmad Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 Do it again, because a top 10 QB isn't just talent it's consistently succeeding in this league. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mox Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 Weak comparison. Baker regressed in year two. Trevor grew. Baker thrived in year 3 because he was asked to do less. Trevor was asked to do more with worse weapons. Plus Baker's 8 game stretch was wildly over-hyped. He beat up five teams with 6 or less wins (four 4 or less win teams and the 6 win Giants playing Colt McCoy), and the Steelers playing backups, while throwing the ball under 30 times/game. I'll need another year before I cement Trevor in my top ten because one year isn't enough to get there. However, if he's even good next year he'll have more consecutive good seasons than Baker ever did. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soko Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 I think there’s probably an argument for that, sure. But I think there’s probably a dozen or so QBs that have reasonable-ish arguments to get in those last few spots in that top 10. Is it crazy talk for Russ, with a good OC/coach, to have a bounce back year? Could Brady? Could Rodgers? What happens when/if Stafford gets healthy? What if Tua stays healthy? What if Geno wasn’t a flash in the pan? What’ll Watson look like on the field as he knocks off more rust? How’s Lamar going to bounce back from these injuries? Then you have guys like Dak and Cousins who are sort of right in that group too. Someone has to occupy those spots, so I probably wouldn’t push hard on anyone saying Trevor’s entered that back end there, but whomever you do out there I’d say that there are serious question marks about their progress. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrry32 Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 No. What he does show is why people need to chill with their snap judgments of rookie QBs. I can see Lawrence being one of the top guys in the NFL in the future, but he's not established himself as a top 10 QB yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
August4th Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 I think he's in the tier that's at the bottom of the top 10 or just out of it. 8-12 range with the arrow rising Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sammymvpknight Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 Considing that he was top 10 this year, improved substantially as the year went on, will be likely to improve just based on typical progression of a young QB, and the likelihood that his receiving corp improves…he’s going to be considered by most as a top 10 QB going into next year. He was inconsistent at times…which honestly speaks to his potential if he gets a few things ironed out. It would be nice if he had a true stud receiver to throw to. It sure would be nice to have a Kelce, Chase, or Diggs on the team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iknowcool Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 (edited) It really depends on how you view Brady, Rodgers, Watson, Wilson and Murray. All 5 of them had down years, but have proven themselves more over their career than Lawrence has. So it depends on how many of them, if any at all, you expect to rebound. I think Wilson is cooked. Murray is injured and who knows how he will look post-injury with a new HC. Watson I'd still probably put above Lawrence. Surely last season was him being rusty, you would think. I think going with my gut, you have to place Brady and Rodgers above him for now... but if I had to bet money on who has the better season next year, it would be Lawrence. Edited January 22, 2023 by iknowcool Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 If I had to win a game tomorrow I am taking the following QBs over Lawrence: Patrick Mahomes Joe Burrow Josh Allen Jalen Hurts Dak Prescott Lamar Jackson Justin Herbert Aaron Rodgers Tom Brady He’s teetering on the edge right now for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seminoles1 Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, and Justin Herbert are absolute for sures I would take over Lawrence for next season. Aaron Rodgers, Jared Goff, and Dak Prescott are in the same tier as Lawrence for me going into next season. So, I'd say he's top 10. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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