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Has Trevor Lawrence cemented himself as a top-10 QB in your opinion?


Is Trevor Lawrence a Top 10 QB right now?  

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  1. 1. Is Trevor Lawrence a Top 10 QB right now?

    • Duh
    • Slow ya horses partner

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Before you just stamp your "yes" and move on, let me make a case to you that I started in the GDT ->

  • Former #1 Overall Pick
  • Had a terrible year bc of one of the worst coaches in history
  • Turned around an abysmal franchise the next year and led them to a playoff win
  • Had of a stretch of half a year of arguably top 3 QB play
  • Has obvious arm talent but some turnover concerns (looking at you fumbles)
  • Went 1TD 1INT and ~200yards in the divisional playoff game to the Chiefs

Look At These Stats And Tell Me That Trevor Lawrence is not at the same point Baker Mayfield was when his thread was created


Career To Date

            Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass Rush Rush Rush Rush Rush
Rk Player From To AV G QBrec Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD Rate Lng Int Sk Yds Y/A AY/A NY/A ANY/A Att Yds TD Y/A Lng
1 Trevor Lawrence 2021 2022 21 34 12-22-0 746 1186 62.9 7754 37 83.4 59 25 59 422 6.5 6.21 5.89 5.58 135 625 7 4.6 26
2 Baker Mayfield 2018 2022 45 72 31-38-0 1386 2259 61.4 16288 102 86.5 89 64 170 1106 7.2 6.84 6.25 5.90 189 660 6 3.5 35

Terrible Year That We Were Supposed To Ignore

        Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass
Rk Player Year G QBrec Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD Rate Lng Int Sk Yds Y/A AY/A NY/A ANY/A
1 Trevor Lawrence 2021 17 3-14-0 359 602 59.6 3641 12 71.9 58 17 32 238 6.0 5.18 5.37 4.54
2 Baker Mayfield 2019 16 6-10-0 317 534 59.4 3827 22 78.8 89 21 40 285 7.2 6.22 6.17 5.29

Breakout Year

        Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass
Rk Player Year G QBrec Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD Rate Lng Int Sk Yds Y/A AY/A NY/A ANY/A
1 Trevor Lawrence 2022 17 9-8-0 387 584 66.3 4113 25 95.2 59 8 27 184 7.0 7.28 6.43 6.66
2 Baker Mayfield 2020 16 11-5-0 305 486 62.8 3563 26 95.9 75 8 26 162 7.3 7.66 6.64 6.96


Amazing Stretch Of Top 3 QB Play For Half A Year

  Games Passing Rushing Scoring Fumbles
Year Tm G GS Cmp Att Inc Cmp% Yds TD Int Rate Sk Yds Y/A AY/A Att Yds Y/A TD TD Pts Fmb FL FF FR Yds TD
2022-2022 JAX 9 9 217 319 102 68.03 2288 16 3 101.5 18 115 7.17 7.75 35 181 5.17 4 4 24 5 3 0 0 -3 0


  Games Passing Rushing Receiving Scoring Fumbles
Year Tm G GS Cmp Att Inc Cmp% Yds TD Int Rate Sk Yds Y/A AY/A Att Yds Y/A TD Tgt Rec Yds Y/R TD Ctch% Y/Tgt TD Pts Fmb FL FF FR Yds TD
2020-2020 CLE 8 8 157 236 79 66.53 1987 15 2 110.3 7 41 8.42 9.31 33 78 2.36 1 1 1 6 6.00 0 100.0% 6.00 1 6 4 2 0 1 -15 0


Now don't hear what I'm not saying. I don't think Trevor is going to bust or is Baker Mayfield. Baker arguably had more help and less measurables blah blah blah. But the parallels are hard to ignore.

Look, I get that Trevor was an exponentially better prospect than Baker. But Baker also had one of the best rookie QB years that we had ever seen at the time. So when we talk about their prospective ability to be great in the NFL, I think that should weigh pretty legitimately against being great in college, despite hindsight proving us wrong.

We can debate measurables, but my point is really that we all just expect Trevor to progress next year because "duh he's dope", but there were many who expected Baker to take the next step as well. 


Therefore, I pose to you these questions:

Is he top 10 right now?
I think he has a good case, but I think it's more so due to a down year in QBs. 

Mahomes, Burrow, Allen, Hurts, Herbert, Lamar and Dak all have strong arguments imo. 
I think Cousins, Healthy Tua, Kyler and Carr are statistically debatable. 
If we consider career, Rodgers, Brady, Russ and Watson have arguments.
If we consider this year only (like we do with Trevor), I think Goff + Jones + Geno enter the conversation.

Will he CEMENT himself as a top 10 QB going forward? Even if more QBs start producing? 
I think I'm 75% sure he will. (99% sure he will be top 10 at some point, but I mean an unquestioned top 10 every year for a decade)

If you still believe he is top 10, does this make you even 1% more concerned about his ceiling as a top 5 QB?
I'm going to say I'm 3% more concerned (Like I was 90% sure he would be a top 5 at some point in his career eventually, so now I'm at 87%).

Edited by Soggust
forgot lamar lol
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Weak comparison. Baker regressed in year two. Trevor grew. Baker thrived in year 3 because he was asked to do less. Trevor was asked to do more with worse weapons. Plus Baker's 8 game stretch was wildly over-hyped. He beat up five teams with 6 or less wins (four 4 or less win teams and the 6 win Giants playing Colt McCoy), and the Steelers playing backups, while throwing the ball under 30 times/game.

I'll need another year before I cement Trevor in my top ten because one year isn't enough to get there. However, if he's even good next year he'll have more consecutive good seasons than Baker ever did.

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I think there’s probably an argument for that, sure. But I think there’s probably a dozen or so QBs that have reasonable-ish arguments to get in those last few spots in that top 10. 

Is it crazy talk for Russ, with a good OC/coach, to have a bounce back year? Could Brady? Could Rodgers? What happens when/if Stafford gets healthy? What if Tua stays healthy? What if Geno wasn’t a flash in the pan? What’ll Watson look like on the field as he knocks off more rust? How’s Lamar going to bounce back from these injuries? Then you have guys like Dak and Cousins who are sort of right in that group too. 

Someone has to occupy those spots, so I probably wouldn’t push hard on anyone saying Trevor’s entered that back end there, but whomever you do out there I’d say that there are serious question marks about their progress. 

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Considing that he was top 10 this year, improved substantially as the year went on, will be likely to improve just based on typical progression of a young QB, and the likelihood that his receiving corp improves…he’s going to be considered by most as a top 10 QB going into next year. He was inconsistent at times…which honestly speaks to his potential if he gets a few things ironed out. It would be nice if he had a true stud receiver to throw to. It sure would be nice to have a Kelce, Chase, or Diggs on the team. 

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It really depends on how you view Brady, Rodgers, Watson, Wilson and Murray.

All 5 of them had down years, but have proven themselves more over their career than Lawrence has.  So it depends on how many of them, if any at all, you expect to rebound.  I think Wilson is cooked.  Murray is injured and who knows how he will look post-injury with a new HC.  Watson I'd still probably put above Lawrence.  Surely last season was him being rusty, you would think.  I think going with my gut, you have to place Brady and Rodgers above him for now... but if I had to bet money on who has the better season next year, it would be Lawrence.

Edited by iknowcool
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Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, and Justin Herbert are absolute for sures I would take over Lawrence for next season.

Aaron Rodgers, Jared Goff, and Dak Prescott are in the same tier as Lawrence for me going into next season.

So, I'd say he's top 10.

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