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2018 NBA Draft Prospects

devils1854

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FinneasGage

FinneasGage

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On 5/25/2018 at 5:25 PM, DirtyDez said:

1. Phoenix - DeAndre Ayton

2. Sacramento - Michael Porter Jr

3. Atlanta - Jaren Jackson Jr

4. Memphis - Marvin Bagley Jr

5. Dallas - Luka Doncic

6. Orlando - Trae Young

7. Chicago - Mo Bamba

After the big-7 it’s hard to project.  There will be lots of trades IMO.  Suns, Mavs and Bulls win the draft ^^

if orl went trae over bamba i'd say im done following this franchise and then promptly watch them all year next year. as opposed to being excited and watching in october. 

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beekay414

beekay414

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Just now, utley4568 said:

It's a huge reason why mocks are way off.

Again, true. That's why I do the "what I'd do" mock most of the time unless the fit and reality makes sense aka Trae Young to Orlando at 6. We both know how I feel about him so, if it was a true "what I'd do" mock, he wouldn't sniff the lottery lol.

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FinneasGage

FinneasGage

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Just now, bkobow05 said:

Again, true. That's why I do the "what I'd do" mock most of the time unless the fit and reality makes sense aka Trae Young to Orlando at 6. We both know how I feel about him so, if it was a true "what I'd do" mock, he wouldn't sniff the lottery lol.

i saw some rumors ATL is "locked in" on trae at 3. obvious smoke, but im prayin dog. 

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beekay414

beekay414

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1 minute ago, jfinley88 said:

i saw some rumors ATL is "locked in" on trae at 3. obvious smoke, but im prayin dog. 

We're a month away. It's all smoke. If Atlanta takes Trae Young over Luka Doncic (assuming Sacramento goes full derp), I'll die of laughter. Literally. I'll stop breathing.

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FinneasGage

FinneasGage

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4 minutes ago, bkobow05 said:

We're a month away. It's all smoke. If Atlanta takes Trae Young over Luka Doncic (assuming Sacramento goes full derp), I'll die of laughter. Literally. I'll stop breathing.

go ahead and get all of doncic, trae and bagley off the board before ORL picks plz

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Utley

Utley

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1 minute ago, bkobow05 said:

We're a month away. It's all smoke. If Atlanta takes Trae Young over Luka Doncic (assuming Sacramento goes full derp), I'll die of laughter. Literally. I'll stop breathing.

Hopefully they give Lloyd Pierce a say. Right now my guess would be.

 

1. Phoenix - Ayton

2. Sacramento - Bamba

3. Atlanta - Jackson Jr.

4. Memphis - Doncic

5. Dallas - Bagley

6. Orlando - Porter

7. Chicago - Carter

8. Cleveland - Sexton

9. New York - Young

10. Philadelphia - Bridges

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grubs10

grubs10

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Mostly based on what I think the teams should do more so than what they will do but I probably did take that into account when I just went through the order and picked somebody at each spot.  I'm wrong all the time when it comes to projecting athletic guys high thinking they will develop their skills but I generally tend to stick with my gut on players because its based more on they way they look while playing as opposed to the numbers they put up.  I will say after Ayton and Doncic I think this draft is a bit of a crapshoot and no where close to the star power of last years draft at the top.  Plenty of guys that could be valuable pieces one way or the other but I don't see any perimeter playmakers or guys that can create their own shot that I am in love with.  The bigs are good, but I have Ayton way higher than the rest of them, and most of the others I expect to be valuable pieces with large holes in their games who will need their team mates to cover for them in one way or another for the team to be successful

 

1. Suns - Ayton - Best player.  An athletic big with no injury history that I am aware of.  Some bust potential but even Kwame had a long career and hes no Kwame.  Ayton equals easy reliable buckets down low in the half court to punish small ball while also offering spacing where opposing bigs can't leave him wide open and he can knock down a three as the trailer if he pans out.  Offensively that's what you want in this league.  Probably needs a coach that will constantly be on him not to float early on but I think its very possible we see a much more focused Ayton since for the first time he won't be significantly better than everyone else on the court with him.  Probably won't ever be a shot blocker for whatever reason but he should be able to be coached up into a rim protector in his own way just on sheer size, length, and mobility.  Also should be fairly good at staying in front of people defending the pick and roll.  Franchise player if everything comes together and combined with Booker makes the Suns a scary team offensively going forward.

2. Kings - Bamba - I think the rumors of Doncic not wanting to go there may push them to say we will take the defensive center with a 7'10 wingspan that is relatively light on his feet.  They could go Doncic and he would make them a better team immediately with less bust potential than Bamba,  but I think the Kings need their best player to be a better scorer than Doncic.  And if they take Luca he will be good enough that they put all their eggs in his basket and become too good to get another top pick but not good enough to be a playoff team.  Even though the Kings don't have their pick next year, Bamba and Fox could become an elite defensive core in 2-3 years while still being bad enough during the process to try to get your leading offensive component at the top of the 2020 draft.  I also think Fox and Bamba would be significantly more competent offensive contributors if they have a go to offensive player to take pressure off them.  The Kings need to trust the process this ish a little bit because they have been bad for far too long and they were lucky enough to have Boogie during a good portion of that time.  Bamba probably gives them the most long term potential without an immediate overall improvement outside of maybe MPJ, who I'm not sold on being a go to offensive player.  Jaren Jackson also a possibility but the look of his jumpshot makes me not trust it as a reliable weapon in the NBA and I actually think I trust Bambas potential offensive utility more than JJJ if we take the jumper out of it.

3. Hawks - Doncic - Hawks go Luka if he's there point blank IMO.  John Collins and Taurean Prince are probably the best pieces on their team and I'm not sure either will be a key contributor by the time they are a good team again.  I would try to deal Shroder for almost anything, not a bad player but hes unhappy and hes not special, and turn the keys over to Doncic.  Going forward if a star at the point guard presents itself you take him and make Doncic one of the best secondary playmakers in the league, but running your team through Doncic early on allows him to sharpen his ball handling, playmaking, and decision making at the NBA level while staying bad enough to deepen their nearly nonexistent pool of young talent.  Like Bamba, and pretty much everyone in this draft outside of Ayton IMO, Doncic isn't going to be able to lead a contending team in scoring. At the same time, both can be really really good, valuable players at the NBA level who become even more valuable when they aren't asked to carry the scoring load for a team.

4. Grizz - Jaren Jackson - Debated between MPJ and JJJ but being the Grizz I went with the defensive upside big over the wing scorer that I'm not sure ever becomes positive defender at either forward position.  Jaren Jackson is a player that I really like in theory but I can't fully trust him.  Super long, mobile big who put up good percentages from the stripe and from the college three paired with elite advanced defensive stats.  Problem is, at least for me I think, I remember looking at the youtube videos of him when he was coming out of high school as a top recruit and I just wasn't particularly impressed.  As I said above, the look and balance of his jump shot has me wondering if his percentages from three don't regress and I'm not sold on his ball skills enough to see him score consistently by attacking the basket in the half court.  I'm much more confident in his defensive upside,  but he only played 21 minutes per game often times being limited due to foul trouble.  At the NBA he won't get as many cheap fouls called on him and his length and above average mobility for his size should give him a high floor defensively.  I think the reason people think Jackson will be an elite defensive player is because of his per 36 or per 40 defensive stats, and I just have a feeling those numbers are inflated compared to Bamba or even Ayton because Jaren Jackson was on a veteran experienced team and they didn't need him to be out on the court as much as possible to win games.  Jackson was able to be more aggressive in his less minutes because his team was less dependent on him to win.

5. Mavs - Bagley - Bagley is someone that I really liked when he was a sophmore in high school, and by the time he was reclassifying and going to Duke I had soured on him.  I don't fancy myself a Duke hater (easy to say now but I was much higher on Tatum than Jackson last year) and I can see the value that Bagley can offer on the basketball court, but I don't think his perimeter game developed at the rate it needed to since he has physical limitations for a big.  If he had a longer wingspan I could get behind him.  Or if he had broader shoulders with more natural bulk I could see him as Blake Griffen without the injuries.  But a 7'0 wingspan is what you want from your wings at this point and I think Bagley is going to have to beat bigs with speed and his motor.  His defense is awful so I don't see how you can play him at center, and he is going to be forced to incorporate more jumpers into his offensive repertoire because of it.  I have my doubts that he can become a reliable threat from deep which just means he is going to require even more posessions to put up points.  The more jumpers he takes the more field goals he will be missing (empty possessions) and hes not gonna be able to count on that extra point that you get from a three regularly enough to make up for it.  If they can find an option at center that provides some rim protection and at least some ability to space the floor with a jumper, the pick and roll with DSJ and Bagley would be lethal.  His motor suggests he cares enough that he could become a decent defender, but I don't think he has the length or strength to guard legit NBA centers or protect the rim and there are some real issues if you are as big and athletic as him at the college level and you don't defend better than he did.  Overall you take his reliable consistent scoring ability to give Dennis Smith Jr. an offensive tool to work with  and worry about fixing the defensive issues those two have with a high pick next year.

6. Magic - MPJ - Not a clear runaway pick here for the Magic for me, since I have been steady in saying Trae Young's value faces a significant drop off at the nba level compared to College BBall.  I don't see the value in any of the point guards here when it is already such a deep position in the NBA.  Aaron Gordon showed significant progression last year playing the power forward position (from what I hear) and Michael Porter Jr. probably has the best shot at becoming a number one offensive option outside of Ayton.  I'm not sure if a lineup including Jonathan Isaac, Gordan, and MPJ on the court at the same time can work consistently, but the magic need to swing for the fences every chance they get and their are solutions to having too many similar good assets.  Like Jaren Jackson Jr., I watched a lot of cutups of MPJ in high school when he was coming out and visibly I just wasn't impressed enough.  You can't tell everything from highlights on youtube but when the top prospects numbers are more impressive than the highlights that's a red flag for me when talking primary scoring options at the highest level.  MPJ just looked physically weak, I don't like the look of his footwork and balance on his jumpers, and his handle is weak for a perimeter player.  My hopes are he really grows into his body and adds some strength so he can beat perimeter guys with his jumper and using length and strength to get to the basket.  He has good touch with his jumper so I have hope that its possible for him to be a primary option but I think he needs to sure up his ball security with his handle and transform his body almost to what Giannis has done. Their roster is weak enough that even the best projections for MPJ's rookie year aren't going to take them out of reach of a top pick next year, and he has good synergy with Gordan.  The Magic have gone so long without a go to scorer they need to give it their best shot every chance they get.

7. Bulls - Wendell Carter - Wendell is my favorite Duke prospect this year.  Unlike Jaren Jackson and MPJ, I watched Wendell Carter clips coming out of high school last year and I was consistently impressed.  I was worried that he already had his man strength in high school and wasn't a supreme athlete on paper, but I always liked what I saw.  One thing I look for in young bigs is that they dunk when they have the ball down low most of the time, because they should be able to in high school, but also that they have the touch to score even when they aren't able to dunk it.  You need to have the touch to score even when you can't dunk because you won't always be able to at the highest level, but you also need to be able to physically impose your will easily at the high school level to even think about keeping up in the pros.  Wendell looks like he grew into his body and trimmed the baby fat this past year without losing any strength.  Its cliche to throw out player comparisons because they are never perfect, but he seems like the modern form of Al Horford as a prospect because they offer a lot of the same things while Wendell is already showing potential to hit open  threes (which Horford developed later in his career).  Wendell is a strong smart defender that isn't overly explosive but hes long and moves his feet pretty well with decent shot blocking instincts.  He can play power forward with another big because hes smart but hes a guy you can plug in at Center and he will give you strong fundamentals, smart play on both sides of the court, and some reliable scoring down low and passing in half court situations.  Hes not a franchise player by any means but the way he plays makes him a guy thats better than his stats as opposed to a guy who puts up stats but the team never wins.  Great fit with Lauri in the front court and can keep bigs honest by drawing them away from the rim for Dunn and Lavine to drive.

8. Cavs - Trae Young - This is where I went with what I think will happen as opposed to what I would do.  I'm not a huge believer in Sexton but I like him more in the NBA than Trae Young.  To me Young is supremely less talented but thrives in the same way that Iverson and Westbrook did.  For him to be worth this pick things would have to go one of two ways.  Either the team that takes him completely builds around Trae as the primary ball handler/playmaker of the team and surround him with 3 and D guys who can move with out the ball and cash in on catch and shoot situations and cuts to the basket.  Trae is a very good passer when he draws in the defense and hes a pretty good shooter so if you keep the defense honest by putting shooters all over the floor he can personally be successful.  The problem is, pound for pound Iverson, Harden, and Westbrook are some of the most talented atheletes/basketball players we've ever seen and they have proven its incredibly difficult to be successful as a team in the playoffs in today's NBA when you have one player that makes everything go and surround them with role players.  I have my doubts that Trae is athletic enough to create separation off the dribble in the NBA and without separation his lack of length creates problems finishing around the basket.  If he is the primary playmaker teams will put their best perimeter defender on him and if he can't create enough separation to force the help his passing abilities become limited since a lot of his assists came from finding the open man after drawing in an extra defender.  The biggest issue I've always had with Trae Young is shot selection.  He had a built in excuse on a team like Oklahoma that had no other creators offensively and everyone ignored the 4 bad threes he never should have taken when he hits 2 crazy ones.  I think his inability to create separation at the next level could compound this issue making him almost unplayable when combined with his lack of defense on the other end.  I don't trust Trae not to shoot it even when he hasn't created the type of separation he needs to get off his shot, or worse taking more and more from Curry range because that's the only place where he has the space to get his shot off.  I think the more likely path to success for Trae is next to another playmaker at the 2 or 3 who can run the offense in the half court and make Trae a floor spacer/ball mover/closeout attacker where the defense is less focused on him.  He might not be worth this high of a pick if it goes that way because I still believe teams will be able to take him out on the offensive end in the playoffs, but if Lebron stays in Cleveland (huge if) and the Cavs keep this pick (another big if) Trae would be much more valuable playing with a guy like Lebron. I just think the Cavs will want to take the biggest star in case Lebron leaves and Dan Gilbert will see Trae Young and the season he just put up and see it as a no-brainer.

9. Knicks - Kevin Knox - Knox is a dude that I like even though I'm not sure how high his upside is.  He's a 6'9 athlete that should be able to play either forward positions if he works on his body and builds up his core strength.  I don't think he will ever be much of a play maker on offense which limits his upside, but he has a good looking form on his jumper and his percentages were ok from 3 and the stripe for a young athletic wing.  Normally long athletic wings are hesitant to shoot because they have always been able to score attacking the basket but Knox looks good and comfortable shooting and should improve.  He's never going to break guys down regularly off the dribble and that combined with his lack of playmaking probably eliminates him from ever being good enough to be a number one option.  But with his length and explosion he just needs to be confident in his handle and ball control enough to get the 2-3 dribble drives from the three point line and get his defender on his hip using his long stride and the extra spacing in the NBA in order to get to his pull up which looks decent or to get all the way to the rim.  If he gets stronger and grows into his frame, continues progressing as a shooter, and develops his handle to the point where he doesn't lose control of the ball through contact on his drives, he can be a 2nd/3rd option that scores from all three levels as long as there's a play maker out there with him to get him the ball at his spots.  His potential strength, length, and explosion should allow him to defend either forward position based on the match-up.  I think this was a bad year for him to be at Kentucky because he was probably the most skilled offensive player on the team but none of his teammates felt he was significantly better than them enough that they would play through him as much as they should have.  Small knock on Knox for not asserting his dominance but he was the youngest guy on a team full of high school all-Americans that are his friends and he is far from a finished product offensively.

10. Sixers - Mikal Bridges - This ones a no brainer, I wouldn't be surprised if hes top 5 on their overall board.  Every player they bring in going forward, the question has to be asked how they fit with Simmons.  Mikal is similar to Klay in that what he brings fits on every team.  Quintessential three and d wing that has the length and lateral quickness to guard 1-3 in spots while spacing the floor for Simmons and Embiid.  Mikal has the ball skills and IQ to move the ball when he should and put the ball on the floor when he needs to.  It only adds to it in this specific circumstance that he is coming out after his junior season ready to contribute in his role.  Dude spent three years marinating in a college program that was a title contender every year, under one of the best college coaches, and by the end of it he was the best player on a veteran championship winning team.

11. Hornets - Lonnie Walker - I don't know exactly why but I'm a big fan of Lonnie Walker.  It should be obvious at this point, but my opinion of a player going into the draft heavily factors in my opinion of them coming out of high school (for one-and-dones at least).  Lonnie was a dude that I thought was a sleeper-star at the shooting guard spot.  He needs to develop his jumper, which to me looks ok, but I can't argue he doesn't have a great shooting resume percentage wise to point to.  I just watch him in high school and later in his season at Miami, and I see a strong athletic guard who is comfortable handling the ball whether that be in isolation or off a pick.  He's not the play maker for others that Don Mitchell is, but they are both long, strong, athletic guards that are comfortable pick and roll ball handlers and can pull up off the dribble or get to the rim and finish.  I think there's a good chance who ever gets Lonnie will be getting a steal only because he was just coming back from knee surgery before his only season in college.  If he can be a respectable shooter from deep, I think he can be a secondary ball handler on a team that is able to attack a defense in the half court and finish at the rim or draw the defense in and create open shots for others.  Has the tools to be a good perimeter defender.  I thought about going Sexton here since they probably have to move Kemba at some point before they lose him for nothing, but I like Lonnie better and I figure they can plug someone in at the point if they do move Kemba and they can look to acquire a point guard next year either with their first round pick that should be a high one or try to get a 3 and d point in free agency to play next to Lonnie until they find someone better.  The only acceptable direction for Charlotte at this point is rebuild so you wanna take high upside guys that aren't going to drastically improve the team in their first year or two.

12. Clippers - Collin Sexton - Clippers need a point and Sexton might be BPA at this point.  I'm not sure Sexton is a true point nor do I think his jumper is good enough for him to become an elite point guard as a scorer, but the dude is a bull.  I don't see an elite athlete but a pretty good one who is hard to contain when driving to the basket.  Its not that Sexton is an unwilling passer he just relies heavily on drive and dish for his assists and I prefer a point guard who can locate the cutters and guys moving off the ball without having to drive the basketball and draw in a help defender in order to locate an open guy.  He's a good player and has progressed a lot over the past couple years when people have doubted him but I'm not sure he has what it takes to break through and become an above average starting point guard since the position is already so deep.

13. Clippers - Robert Williams - Whenever Deandre is going to leave, the Clippers should let him go.  He costs too much for the production he gives on the offensive end and the Clippers clearly need to move on from the old era and try to rebuild the team in a way that they can be successful.  Robert Williams has the key attributes and the motor to eventually fill the role that Deandre gives them while being more appropriately compensated for the value given on the offensive end.  I like Tobias Harris as a 2nd/3rd option as a stretch four and that fits perfectly with Williams who is a lob threat and beats people one on one for boards with his motor, length, and explosiveness.

14. Nuggets - Miles Bridges - I've never been a huge fan of Miles Bridges ever since he came out of high school and I've gone back and watched his high school stuff and his time at Michigan State to try to find something to give me hope he could flourish in the right circumstance.  I'm not sure he will flourish in Denver but it might still be the best circumstance.  Bridges is weird because you see these insane dunks and alley-oop finishes that blow you away and you say damn this guy is an unreal athlete.  But his foot speed, agility, flexibility, and coordination have me doubt whether or not he has the athleticism to play the three.  He's strong and can move his feet ok on defense but a 7 foot wingspan isn't great for an undersized power forward and there's a lot of small forwards in the league that he could have trouble staying in front of.  In Denver, he can shoot spot up threes and cut off the ball playing off Jokic and Murray to take advantage of his explosive leaping without putting the ball on the floor. His lack of creativity and fluidity off the bounce would be lessened if he can become a better catch and shoot threat and force hard closeouts.  You don't need to rely on creativity when your man is running towards you and away from the basket.  Anybody that can dunk like he can and is the main scoring option for a team like Michigan state should be drawing more than 3 free throws per game at the college level.  That to me is a huge red flag for an athletic wing and shows hes either not confident enough with his handle or is severely ineffective at driving to the rim.

 

This ended up being way longer than I expected but whatever.

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resilient part 2

resilient part 2

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19 minutes ago, grubs10 said:

Mostly based on what I think the teams should do more so than what they will do but I probably did take that into account when I just went through the order and picked somebody at each spot.  I'm wrong all the time when it comes to projecting athletic guys high thinking they will develop their skills but I generally tend to stick with my gut on players because its based more on they way they look while playing as opposed to the numbers they put up.  I will say after Ayton and Doncic I think this draft is a bit of a crapshoot and no where close to the star power of last years draft at the top.  Plenty of guys that could be valuable pieces one way or the other but I don't see any perimeter playmakers or guys that can create their own shot that I am in love with.  The bigs are good, but I have Ayton way higher than the rest of them, and most of the others I expect to be valuable pieces with large holes in their games who will need their team mates to cover for them in one way or another for the team to be successful

 

1. Suns - Ayton - Best player.  An athletic big with no injury history that I am aware of.  Some bust potential but even Kwame had a long career and hes no Kwame.  Ayton equals easy reliable buckets down low in the half court to punish small ball while also offering spacing where opposing bigs can't leave him wide open and he can knock down a three as the trailer if he pans out.  Offensively that's what you want in this league.  Probably needs a coach that will constantly be on him not to float early on but I think its very possible we see a much more focused Ayton since for the first time he won't be significantly better than everyone else on the court with him.  Probably won't ever be a shot blocker for whatever reason but he should be able to be coached up into a rim protector in his own way just on sheer size, length, and mobility.  Also should be fairly good at staying in front of people defending the pick and roll.  Franchise player if everything comes together and combined with Booker makes the Suns a scary team offensively going forward.

2. Kings - Bamba - I think the rumors of Doncic not wanting to go there may push them to say we will take the defensive center with a 7'10 wingspan that is relatively light on his feet.  They could go Doncic and he would make them a better team immediately with less bust potential than Bamba,  but I think the Kings need their best player to be a better scorer than Doncic.  And if they take Luca he will be good enough that they put all their eggs in his basket and become too good to get another top pick but not good enough to be a playoff team.  Even though the Kings don't have their pick next year, Bamba and Fox could become an elite defensive core in 2-3 years while still being bad enough during the process to try to get your leading offensive component at the top of the 2020 draft.  I also think Fox and Bamba would be significantly more competent offensive contributors if they have a go to offensive player to take pressure off them.  The Kings need to trust the process this ish a little bit because they have been bad for far too long and they were lucky enough to have Boogie during a good portion of that time.  Bamba probably gives them the most long term potential without an immediate overall improvement outside of maybe MPJ, who I'm not sold on being a go to offensive player.  Jaren Jackson also a possibility but the look of his jumpshot makes me not trust it as a reliable weapon in the NBA and I actually think I trust Bambas potential offensive utility more than JJJ if we take the jumper out of it.

3. Hawks - Doncic - Hawks go Luka if he's there point blank IMO.  John Collins and Taurean Prince are probably the best pieces on their team and I'm not sure either will be a key contributor by the time they are a good team again.  I would try to deal Shroder for almost anything, not a bad player but hes unhappy and hes not special, and turn the keys over to Doncic.  Going forward if a star at the point guard presents itself you take him and make Doncic one of the best secondary playmakers in the league, but running your team through Doncic early on allows him to sharpen his ball handling, playmaking, and decision making at the NBA level while staying bad enough to deepen their nearly nonexistent pool of young talent.  Like Bamba, and pretty much everyone in this draft outside of Ayton IMO, Doncic isn't going to be able to lead a contending team in scoring. At the same time, both can be really really good, valuable players at the NBA level who become even more valuable when they aren't asked to carry the scoring load for a team.

4. Grizz - Jaren Jackson - Debated between MPJ and JJJ but being the Grizz I went with the defensive upside big over the wing scorer that I'm not sure ever becomes positive defender at either forward position.  Jaren Jackson is a player that I really like in theory but I can't fully trust him.  Super long, mobile big who put up good percentages from the stripe and from the college three paired with elite advanced defensive stats.  Problem is, at least for me I think, I remember looking at the youtube videos of him when he was coming out of high school as a top recruit and I just wasn't particularly impressed.  As I said above, the look and balance of his jump shot has me wondering if his percentages from three don't regress and I'm not sold on his ball skills enough to see him score consistently by attacking the basket in the half court.  I'm much more confident in his defensive upside,  but he only played 21 minutes per game often times being limited due to foul trouble.  At the NBA he won't get as many cheap fouls called on him and his length and above average mobility for his size should give him a high floor defensively.  I think the reason people think Jackson will be an elite defensive player is because of his per 36 or per 40 defensive stats, and I just have a feeling those numbers are inflated compared to Bamba or even Ayton because Jaren Jackson was on a veteran experienced team and they didn't need him to be out on the court as much as possible to win games.  Jackson was able to be more aggressive in his less minutes because his team was less dependent on him to win.

5. Mavs - Bagley - Bagley is someone that I really liked when he was a sophmore in high school, and by the time he was reclassifying and going to Duke I had soured on him.  I don't fancy myself a Duke hater (easy to say now but I was much higher on Tatum than Jackson last year) and I can see the value that Bagley can offer on the basketball court, but I don't think his perimeter game developed at the rate it needed to since he has physical limitations for a big.  If he had a longer wingspan I could get behind him.  Or if he had broader shoulders with more natural bulk I could see him as Blake Griffen without the injuries.  But a 7'0 wingspan is what you want from your wings at this point and I think Bagley is going to have to beat bigs with speed and his motor.  His defense is awful so I don't see how you can play him at center, and he is going to be forced to incorporate more jumpers into his offensive repertoire because of it.  I have my doubts that he can become a reliable threat from deep which just means he is going to require even more posessions to put up points.  The more jumpers he takes the more field goals he will be missing (empty possessions) and hes not gonna be able to count on that extra point that you get from a three regularly enough to make up for it.  If they can find an option at center that provides some rim protection and at least some ability to space the floor with a jumper, the pick and roll with DSJ and Bagley would be lethal.  His motor suggests he cares enough that he could become a decent defender, but I don't think he has the length or strength to guard legit NBA centers or protect the rim and there are some real issues if you are as big and athletic as him at the college level and you don't defend better than he did.  Overall you take his reliable consistent scoring ability to give Dennis Smith Jr. an offensive tool to work with  and worry about fixing the defensive issues those two have with a high pick next year.

6. Magic - MPJ - Not a clear runaway pick here for the Magic for me, since I have been steady in saying Trae Young's value faces a significant drop off at the nba level compared to College BBall.  I don't see the value in any of the point guards here when it is already such a deep position in the NBA.  Aaron Gordon showed significant progression last year playing the power forward position (from what I hear) and Michael Porter Jr. probably has the best shot at becoming a number one offensive option outside of Ayton.  I'm not sure if a lineup including Jonathan Isaac, Gordan, and MPJ on the court at the same time can work consistently, but the magic need to swing for the fences every chance they get and their are solutions to having too many similar good assets.  Like Jaren Jackson Jr., I watched a lot of cutups of MPJ in high school when he was coming out and visibly I just wasn't impressed enough.  You can't tell everything from highlights on youtube but when the top prospects numbers are more impressive than the highlights that's a red flag for me when talking primary scoring options at the highest level.  MPJ just looked physically weak, I don't like the look of his footwork and balance on his jumpers, and his handle is weak for a perimeter player.  My hopes are he really grows into his body and adds some strength so he can beat perimeter guys with his jumper and using length and strength to get to the basket.  He has good touch with his jumper so I have hope that its possible for him to be a primary option but I think he needs to sure up his ball security with his handle and transform his body almost to what Giannis has done. Their roster is weak enough that even the best projections for MPJ's rookie year aren't going to take them out of reach of a top pick next year, and he has good synergy with Gordan.  The Magic have gone so long without a go to scorer they need to give it their best shot every chance they get.

7. Bulls - Wendell Carter - Wendell is my favorite Duke prospect this year.  Unlike Jaren Jackson and MPJ, I watched Wendell Carter clips coming out of high school last year and I was consistently impressed.  I was worried that he already had his man strength in high school and wasn't a supreme athlete on paper, but I always liked what I saw.  One thing I look for in young bigs is that they dunk when they have the ball down low most of the time, because they should be able to in high school, but also that they have the touch to score even when they aren't able to dunk it.  You need to have the touch to score even when you can't dunk because you won't always be able to at the highest level, but you also need to be able to physically impose your will easily at the high school level to even think about keeping up in the pros.  Wendell looks like he grew into his body and trimmed the baby fat this past year without losing any strength.  Its cliche to throw out player comparisons because they are never perfect, but he seems like the modern form of Al Horford as a prospect because they offer a lot of the same things while Wendell is already showing potential to hit open  threes (which Horford developed later in his career).  Wendell is a strong smart defender that isn't overly explosive but hes long and moves his feet pretty well with decent shot blocking instincts.  He can play power forward with another big because hes smart but hes a guy you can plug in at Center and he will give you strong fundamentals, smart play on both sides of the court, and some reliable scoring down low and passing in half court situations.  Hes not a franchise player by any means but the way he plays makes him a guy thats better than his stats as opposed to a guy who puts up stats but the team never wins.  Great fit with Lauri in the front court and can keep bigs honest by drawing them away from the rim for Dunn and Lavine to drive.

8. Cavs - Trae Young - This is where I went with what I think will happen as opposed to what I would do.  I'm not a huge believer in Sexton but I like him more in the NBA than Trae Young.  To me Young is supremely less talented but thrives in the same way that Iverson and Westbrook did.  For him to be worth this pick things would have to go one of two ways.  Either the team that takes him completely builds around Trae as the primary ball handler/playmaker of the team and surround him with 3 and D guys who can move with out the ball and cash in on catch and shoot situations and cuts to the basket.  Trae is a very good passer when he draws in the defense and hes a pretty good shooter so if you keep the defense honest by putting shooters all over the floor he can personally be successful.  The problem is, pound for pound Iverson, Harden, and Westbrook are some of the most talented atheletes/basketball players we've ever seen and they have proven its incredibly difficult to be successful as a team in the playoffs in today's NBA when you have one player that makes everything go and surround them with role players.  I have my doubts that Trae is athletic enough to create separation off the dribble in the NBA and without separation his lack of length creates problems finishing around the basket.  If he is the primary playmaker teams will put their best perimeter defender on him and if he can't create enough separation to force the help his passing abilities become limited since a lot of his assists came from finding the open man after drawing in an extra defender.  The biggest issue I've always had with Trae Young is shot selection.  He had a built in excuse on a team like Oklahoma that had no other creators offensively and everyone ignored the 4 bad threes he never should have taken when he hits 2 crazy ones.  I think his inability to create separation at the next level could compound this issue making him almost unplayable when combined with his lack of defense on the other end.  I don't trust Trae not to shoot it even when he hasn't created the type of separation he needs to get off his shot, or worse taking more and more from Curry range because that's the only place where he has the space to get his shot off.  I think the more likely path to success for Trae is next to another playmaker at the 2 or 3 who can run the offense in the half court and make Trae a floor spacer/ball mover/closeout attacker where the defense is less focused on him.  He might not be worth this high of a pick if it goes that way because I still believe teams will be able to take him out on the offensive end in the playoffs, but if Lebron stays in Cleveland (huge if) and the Cavs keep this pick (another big if) Trae would be much more valuable playing with a guy like Lebron. I just think the Cavs will want to take the biggest star in case Lebron leaves and Dan Gilbert will see Trae Young and the season he just put up and see it as a no-brainer.

9. Knicks - Kevin Knox - Knox is a dude that I like even though I'm not sure how high his upside is.  He's a 6'9 athlete that should be able to play either forward positions if he works on his body and builds up his core strength.  I don't think he will ever be much of a play maker on offense which limits his upside, but he has a good looking form on his jumper and his percentages were ok from 3 and the stripe for a young athletic wing.  Normally long athletic wings are hesitant to shoot because they have always been able to score attacking the basket but Knox looks good and comfortable shooting and should improve.  He's never going to break guys down regularly off the dribble and that combined with his lack of playmaking probably eliminates him from ever being good enough to be a number one option.  But with his length and explosion he just needs to be confident in his handle and ball control enough to get the 2-3 dribble drives from the three point line and get his defender on his hip using his long stride and the extra spacing in the NBA in order to get to his pull up which looks decent or to get all the way to the rim.  If he gets stronger and grows into his frame, continues progressing as a shooter, and develops his handle to the point where he doesn't lose control of the ball through contact on his drives, he can be a 2nd/3rd option that scores from all three levels as long as there's a play maker out there with him to get him the ball at his spots.  His potential strength, length, and explosion should allow him to defend either forward position based on the match-up.  I think this was a bad year for him to be at Kentucky because he was probably the most skilled offensive player on the team but none of his teammates felt he was significantly better than them enough that they would play through him as much as they should have.  Small knock on Knox for not asserting his dominance but he was the youngest guy on a team full of high school all-Americans that are his friends and he is far from a finished product offensively.

10. Sixers - Mikal Bridges - This ones a no brainer, I wouldn't be surprised if hes top 5 on their overall board.  Every player they bring in going forward, the question has to be asked how they fit with Simmons.  Mikal is similar to Klay in that what he brings fits on every team.  Quintessential three and d wing that has the length and lateral quickness to guard 1-3 in spots while spacing the floor for Simmons and Embiid.  Mikal has the ball skills and IQ to move the ball when he should and put the ball on the floor when he needs to.  It only adds to it in this specific circumstance that he is coming out after his junior season ready to contribute in his role.  Dude spent three years marinating in a college program that was a title contender every year, under one of the best college coaches, and by the end of it he was the best player on a veteran championship winning team.

11. Hornets - Lonnie Walker - I don't know exactly why but I'm a big fan of Lonnie Walker.  It should be obvious at this point, but my opinion of a player going into the draft heavily factors in my opinion of them coming out of high school (for one-and-dones at least).  Lonnie was a dude that I thought was a sleeper-star at the shooting guard spot.  He needs to develop his jumper, which to me looks ok, but I can't argue he doesn't have a great shooting resume percentage wise to point to.  I just watch him in high school and later in his season at Miami, and I see a strong athletic guard who is comfortable handling the ball whether that be in isolation or off a pick.  He's not the play maker for others that Don Mitchell is, but they are both long, strong, athletic guards that are comfortable pick and roll ball handlers and can pull up off the dribble or get to the rim and finish.  I think there's a good chance who ever gets Lonnie will be getting a steal only because he was just coming back from knee surgery before his only season in college.  If he can be a respectable shooter from deep, I think he can be a secondary ball handler on a team that is able to attack a defense in the half court and finish at the rim or draw the defense in and create open shots for others.  Has the tools to be a good perimeter defender.  I thought about going Sexton here since they probably have to move Kemba at some point before they lose him for nothing, but I like Lonnie better and I figure they can plug someone in at the point if they do move Kemba and they can look to acquire a point guard next year either with their first round pick that should be a high one or try to get a 3 and d point in free agency to play next to Lonnie until they find someone better.  The only acceptable direction for Charlotte at this point is rebuild so you wanna take high upside guys that aren't going to drastically improve the team in their first year or two.

12. Clippers - Collin Sexton - Clippers need a point and Sexton might be BPA at this point.  I'm not sure Sexton is a true point nor do I think his jumper is good enough for him to become an elite point guard as a scorer, but the dude is a bull.  I don't see an elite athlete but a pretty good one who is hard to contain when driving to the basket.  Its not that Sexton is an unwilling passer he just relies heavily on drive and dish for his assists and I prefer a point guard who can locate the cutters and guys moving off the ball without having to drive the basketball and draw in a help defender in order to locate an open guy.  He's a good player and has progressed a lot over the past couple years when people have doubted him but I'm not sure he has what it takes to break through and become an above average starting point guard since the position is already so deep.

13. Clippers - Robert Williams - Whenever Deandre is going to leave, the Clippers should let him go.  He costs too much for the production he gives on the offensive end and the Clippers clearly need to move on from the old era and try to rebuild the team in a way that they can be successful.  Robert Williams has the key attributes and the motor to eventually fill the role that Deandre gives them while being more appropriately compensated for the value given on the offensive end.  I like Tobias Harris as a 2nd/3rd option as a stretch four and that fits perfectly with Williams who is a lob threat and beats people one on one for boards with his motor, length, and explosiveness.

14. Nuggets - Miles Bridges - I've never been a huge fan of Miles Bridges ever since he came out of high school and I've gone back and watched his high school stuff and his time at Michigan State to try to find something to give me hope he could flourish in the right circumstance.  I'm not sure he will flourish in Denver but it might still be the best circumstance.  Bridges is weird because you see these insane dunks and alley-oop finishes that blow you away and you say damn this guy is an unreal athlete.  But his foot speed, agility, flexibility, and coordination have me doubt whether or not he has the athleticism to play the three.  He's strong and can move his feet ok on defense but a 7 foot wingspan isn't great for an undersized power forward and there's a lot of small forwards in the league that he could have trouble staying in front of.  In Denver, he can shoot spot up threes and cut off the ball playing off Jokic and Murray to take advantage of his explosive leaping without putting the ball on the floor. His lack of creativity and fluidity off the bounce would be lessened if he can become a better catch and shoot threat and force hard closeouts.  You don't need to rely on creativity when your man is running towards you and away from the basket.  Anybody that can dunk like he can and is the main scoring option for a team like Michigan state should be drawing more than 3 free throws per game at the college level.  That to me is a huge red flag for an athletic wing and shows hes either not confident enough with his handle or is severely ineffective at driving to the rim.

 

This ended up being way longer than I expected but whatever.

Like the read, keep it going. But will add that I think if L eBron stays,  and I do believe that possibility has gotten bigger, I see them going after mikal Bridges over Trae Young as I believe he is a much better fit and need for Cleveland .

I know, that messes.up ur hopes for Philly.

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