2023 NFL DRAFT: Hindsight Saga

[xrade]

16 hours ago, rickyt31 said:

Think we're having a decent draft class. If McDonald is playing LB, TIPP plays center, and JBC plays FS, They'll make an impact this season. 

Jeremiah thinks we had one of the better drafts compared to others. I tend to value his opinion more than most analysts.

I am not expecting any of our picks to start right away. Maybe Tippman but a lot is going to depend on AR’s comfort level with the rookie. AR has not really shown he trusts rooks but maybe that is just WR.

I expect McD to be eased in on obvious PR situations. Warren, Barnes and Kuntz are for next year. Abi will be rotating in with Breece getting the majority of snaps as the year wears on. Converse is not starting at FS. That is Adams job. Converse will be rotating in towards the end of the year.

This whole draft was focused on the future and that is a good thing. It means we have few immediate holes and can start drafting future replacements. 

[jetsfan4life51]

Final Thoughts on the Draft

Round 1 - Will McDonald IV - I'll admit, this was a guy I didn't look at for two seconds pre draft.  I wrongfully assumed he was a traditional DE like JJ or a bigger DE like JFM.  I think with the jersey colors I was thinking of Tuli Tuo-whatever. Fresh off the anger of the Steelers jumping us for Broderick Jones, I was ready to be pissed at any pick.  Heck, I was annoyed when we drafted Sauce over Thibs last season and look how that turned out! In fact, besides AVT and GW, and also trading up for JJ, I tend to have negative gut reactions to our 1st round picks.  I'm a Jets fan. Then I actually looked at what type of player McDonald is and what else was available.  We were in no man's land after the trade down.  I will also address Broderick Jones later, but if the Jets weren't comfortable with him starting Year 1, what's the difference between him and a Round 2-4 guy?  McDonald's lack of production his final year could be a blessing because he was very under the radar and this type of athlete/skillset/position has not been filled since John Abraham finished the 2005 season.  Incredible bend, athleticism and length for an edge rusher that will compliment the rest of our defense.  HE FORCES FUMBLES.  Ojabo was my favorite last year because he was violent attacking the QB.  McDonald's long arms help out his pass rush and also finishing/creating fumbles. He is tailor made for Saleh's Wide 9 and will be a huge asset on third down, especially late in games.  On paper, the Jets should be putting up more points and playing with a lead.  Having 4, 5, 6 edge rushers can be a benefit. Plus this is a future pick.  Lawson and Huff are gone after this season.  The good teams have replacements in house, not rookies.  Grade: B

Round 2 - Joe Tippmann - flip a coin between him and JMS, none of us would complain about either.  I secretly hope CMG is brought in to compete for a Guard spot while Tippmann takes Center ASAP.  But if he doesn't, he will get it by mid year.  He should bring much more stability to the OL as a whole and improve the interior play.  He needs to work on his hands but boy oh boy I am excited for his run blocking and pulling.  I keep envisioning him pulling and then Breece/Izzy take it 70 yards to the house. Our offense is going to be designed for huge plays, this is very exciting! Grade: A

Round 4 - Carter Warren - By no means is Carter Warren a better pick or player than Broderick Jones. However...with the way the board fell, this is a solid alternative.  Do we have a pass rusher here in Round 4 we like? Not the upside of McDonald.  Anyways, it seems the Jets weren't in love with Jones.  It really doesn't seem like they had an interest in Tackles that high.  Douglas and Saleh must be 100% confident in Becton, Brown and Mitchell.  That's 3 health risks they are gambling on, but if they don't think Jones is ready to start anytime soon, may as well get better value later.  Lots of talk about Warren being a 2nd round pick if he wasn't injured.  The upside is there taking a year to heal and learn and compete and hit the weight room to get stronger. I believe he's a team captain as well.  If we took a developmental Tackle late I would call it a waste, but this guy definitely has starting potential next year.  I see no issues with the pick or strategy.  Now it's on him and the coaching staff to make it work. Grade: B

PS- I still believe Aaron getting rid of the ball quickly will benefit whichever Tackles are playing anyway. Interior was the priority the entire offseason.

Round 5 - Israel Abanikanda - Michael Carter your days are numbered!! And I loved you coming out of the draft and after your rookie season.  But holy crap do we have a match made in heaven between him, Breece and the offense.  He may have untapped potential in the receiving game if Carter doesn't step up.  But with Tippmann leading the charge I expect one or two one cut and GONE 70+ yards this season.  If this OL can provide holes he is going to be dangerous.  Can't find any reasons to not make this an A/A+ grade. Grade: A

Barnes, JBC and Kuntz - taking swings at athletic guys who can play multiple positions on defense and be great STers.  Kuntz is a freak, why not see if Middleton can coach him up.

Post draft thoughts: for the third draft in a row I am coming out happy because Saleh and JD have a vision together.  This is done in unison.  Not JD drafting a player and Saleh having to fit him.  Coaches and scouts run this together and they picked guys with upside that fit what the Jets are trying to do.  Will they all pan out? Of course not.  But at the very least I think we have acquired a starting Center, a threat at RB and someone who should chip in minimum 5 sacks a year.  Solid B 

 

EDIT- I know we got Barnes but I'm disappointed to traded down a few times and kept losing out on starting caliber Safeties.  Would have like a LB earlier but I guess we have Mosley, Quincy, Sherwood, Harris and even Kwon in FA.  If they picked up one of the many lurking Safeties that would have bumped them up to a B+

Edited April 30, 2023 by jetsfan4life51

[jetsfan4life51]

31 minutes ago, Dr.O said:

Getting more excited over the WM4 pick, think if he can bulk up a little he could be a Brian Burns type guy. Think Lawson may be out the door at some point this off-season or a Huff trade… either way I’m excited for this kid to actually play his proper position and get after QBs

I don't want to overhype a Jets prospect but if he played his natural position and posted 10 sacks the past season, where does he go? He has Von Miller beat by 5(?) career sacks with those numbers.  Maybe he edges out Tyree and would likely be a higher grade than Van Ness.

And if Nolan Smith was the pick I'm sure we all would have said great pick because it was a prospect being discussed.

[JetsandI]

McDonald IV -

I had foolishly lobbied for Lukas Van Ness but he went early and Jets brass claimed McDonald was their top edge prospect.  I have heard same bs from teams before so all we need to witness is how much will Jets play him during meaningful games to justify that selection.   Bendist in the class? Well, how many successful NFL edge rushers have that fortunate?   His character and ethic apparent to be solid so I should expect him to elevate 2 spots in DE room.  Zero chance at OLB unless Saleh decides to copy Dan Quinn's defense as both Saleh and Ulbrich are familiar with Quinn's scheme and room to be adjusted.

I would rather Nolan Smith there because he has actual experience at coverage so Smith could provide some action at WLB if DE is no go.  However, big knocks on him is he isn't able to translate from projection into demonstration as an edge during NCAA time.  His strength is run stopping.  If Jets had, in fact, intended to get best pass rusher they could find then I shall accept McDonald's chance for Jets.

Grade: C plus.

 

Tippmann -

Doug Farrar hated that pick because he listed Tippmann as 3rd best center in the class due to inability to handle stunts. I simply ignore that because Wypler and Tippmann marked as best pass protectors than JMS.  Tippmann is not perfect yet but Badger OL have tendency to stand out physically on the field which is very translatable to NFL. Wisconsin has been practicing ZBS for many years and because of that they have knacks for adjusting OL to hide their individual weakness.  I hope Jets know his true weakness and are ready to correct it immediately so he can be 10 year starter beginning this week 1 instead of next or two years.

All I care about Center right now are qb exchange and pass protecting.  Run blocking will depend on the entire OL, not just C itself.  Last year, I rarely saw OL moving left or right which is high alarming.  With good health of Becton and Vera Tucker, I may see the difference for real this year.   CMG is a good character player but I can't say for being a performer.  No excuse for Tippmann not to make it on week 1 as a starter.

Grade: B plus.

 

Carter Warren -

Admittedly, I disliked this pick because I felt he was too tight for my liking. That means he overtried his work on the field. However, his physical and athleticism suggest he belongs the Shanahan's ZBS naturally.  Practicing and correcting technique under pro coaching may make him number one swing OT in 2023.   We have been sick of Jets using scrubs aka UDFA or SFA players to bolster OL depth in the past.  Warren may start to clean up OL room and set a new rule about drafting OL for quality depth annually.  Also, he has experience as 6th lineman back in 2021. That should be a bonus for Hackett and his run oriented plan.  Not to mention, we will never see Carter blocking at the goal line again.  He should be part of key contribution this year.   A surprise starting RT is a welcome, though.

Grade: C plus.

 

Israel Abanikanda -

That would be my best pick for Jets.   He is a true one cut runner but he has size to run between tackles. As long as blocking is working he flies. Now, there is a challenge for Jets with him because he was just solid when the offense was balanced and then boom! he was a star when the offense changed to run heavy.  Egotism does emerge in NFL.  For now, Jets should carefully split carries with Hall because it is not good idea to use Hall heavily for 17 regular games plus a several playoff games.  800/800 is efficient enough with Rodgers at the helm for first 2 or 3 years and then deal with RB's ego. 

Grade: A plus.

 

Zaire Barnes -

A phantom prospect?  As long as he is a natural linebacker I could not complain about that.  He should be an excellent worker for special team but I would be thrilled if he somehow is elected as starting OLB by week 1 if no Kwon Alexander.  

Grade: D minus.

 

Jarrick Bernard-Converse -

He is everything.   Size, Length, Speed, Toughness, Intelligence.   He played for Oklahoma State where the defense had been soft for 4 years before joining in LSU where defense frequently got tested at high level.  JBC did good job for LSU but not enough to bolster his draft stock.  I couldn't care about that because I believe he has a shot to move DJ Reed to S.   Realistically, JBC will end up swing DB this year as Reed and Gardner should continue receiving high praise from coaches.  As you know, I root for Tony Adams to be our starting FS but I am prepared to see JBC taking snaps from Adams. 

Grade:  A minus.

 

Zach Kuntz -

He has ridiculous suddenness and quickness that many short slot receivers lack of.  He will be useful if OL blocking is bad because Rodgers can get rid of football for Kuntz in no time.  For now, he should be utilized for red zone and short situation.  Don't count on him for blocking assignment.  Physical contact is a major concern for him.  Hopefully, he toughens up as season is progressing.  @rickyt31 , you can begin to develop a Hercules show or movie plan with him starring in because he may not be a NFL material after this season.

Grade: D plus.

 

[xrade]

9 minutes ago, jetsfan4life51 said:

Fresh off the anger of the Steelers jumping us for Broderick Jones, I was ready to be pissed at any pick. 

I think you hit the nail on the head. Good write up. It all comes down to trusting JD. We have all lived with the ****show of past GM’s such that it will take time to trust that JD knows what he is doing. I am almost there. If we nail this draft, I may be all the way there. Time will tell.

As for missing on FR OT’s, I am not so sure any of them were slam dunk 10 year starters. In January, many thought the entire draft was weak including OT. Then, as usual, the prospects get hyped up. We watch the combine warriors and get sucked into the void mostly manufactured by agents “leaking” things to their crony press buddies.  We all wanted a FRP OT because we don’t trust what we have and rightfully so. But, and it’s a big but IMO, if Brown, Becton and Mitchell are good to go, our FRP OT may have never seen the field this year.

This is what building through the draft looks like. 

[JetsandI]

Also, if Jets lose 1st round pick for 2024, we wont' have a chance to land top pass rusher to replace Lawson.

[jetsfan4life51]

Paris Johnson was our best shot at a Tackle and he went early. Skoronski and Wright are probably not LTs. Jones was the 4th tackle gone and he projects better at LT than those two. It was not the strongest class and maybe we dodged a bullet?

[jetsfan4life51]

1 minute ago, JetsandI said:

Also, if Jets lose 1st round pick for 2024, we wont' have a chance to land top pass rusher to replace Lawson.

After him and Huff are gone then Edge would look like a massive need next year. 
 

Looking ahead we can still get a great DT, OG, S or LB in round 2. Not premium positions that go in the first. 

[JetsandI]

Just now, jetsfan4life51 said:

After him and Huff are gone then Edge would look like a massive need next year. 
 

Looking ahead we can still get a great DT, OG, S or LB in round 2. Not premium positions that go in the first. 

WR too but we can find one on day 2 or FA anyway.

[ekill08x]

On 4/27/2023 at 3:30 PM, jetsfan4life51 said:

Who was his brother??

I thought the kid who was NYGreen was his brother. Someone mentioned it on here years ago lol. No clue. I forget what greeny changed his name to but he was another good poster.

[doumeyer]

iF WE CAME OUT OF THIS 2023 DRAFT WITH ONE OF THE TOP O LNEMAN. i WOULD CALL THIS DRAFT A HUGE SUCESS, AFTER WE PICKED A GOOD CENTER, BUT THAT DIDN'T HAPPEN BECAUSE OF THAT INSANE TRADE BACK. YOU BETTER KNOW WHAT YOU ARE DOING WHEN YOU TRADE BACK.EVIDENTLY THE JETS DIDN'T FEEL MY WAY

[Big T]

According to Saleh the best player starts regardless of pay grade. Tippmann should beat out McGovern easily. Tippmann is speculated by draft analysis's to move over to guard because of his height. With Mangold so involved in the Jets organization whatever flaws Tman has I'm sure Mangold will be able to mentor him.

I can also see the Jets trading guys like Huff and Lawson to teams outside of the AFC during the year and getting some draft capitol as well as Carter RB who's production fell off. Especially in light of the emergence of Bam Knight.

Either way I think Carter gets traded or this will be his last year in N.Y. and the same could be said for Davis WR.

Because the Jets rotate ER/DL I expect McDonald to be a bigger contributor than most of us expect. A line up of Johnson, Q, McDonald, Clemens and JFM with Lawson and Huff in the wings or visa versa and you have a dynamic that the rest of the league (AFC East ) doesn't have an answer to.

Throw in the offense of Wilson, Hall, Abanikanda, Lazard, Hardman, Davis, and a TE of your choosing and its as formidable as any in the NFL.

Looking forward to see what the Jets can do this year.

[KingOfNewYork]

2 hours ago, JetsandI said:

Next season?  As in 2024?

2023. I think he can beat out McGovern.

[jetfuel34]

Tipp will start day 1. McGovern was brought in for backup C and G which is a steal at 1.9 mill. This is how I see the line this year

LT- Brown sub Becton

LG Laken sub McGovern

C Tipp sub McGovern

RG AVT sub McGovern

RT Becton sub AVT

This is what I see going to happen. 

Mitchell could fill in RT if you want to leave AVT at G.

Edited April 30, 2023 by jetfuel34