Why I believe Kirk Cousins will be a New York Jet

[rdelaney89]

5 hours ago, Thaiphoon said:

At this point, they are out of options. They have mishandled him for years. So they are left with the following options (and my guess as to the likelihood):

1) Let him go without the tag in Free Agency = 0% (likelihood)

They can't let him go into FA as an UFA. They will most certainly lose him. But then they get the 3rd round 2019 pick as compensation. Not enough compensation for him at this point in his career and what he can bring to a team.

2) Transition tag him = 10% 

This is an attractive option. It allows the team to allow other teams to set the market for him and then try to match. The problem is that there are other teams that can make his year 1 contract hard for the Redskins to match. And if they tag him and lose him, they get no compensation.

3) Work out a LTD  = 20%

Its quite possible that Cousins was making the team audition for him this year and has decided to finally work out the LTD. All it would take is $1 more than the Stafford deal to do it.

This could also happen after a Franchise Tag (see below)

4) Franchise tag = 70% 

This is the most likely eventuality. I think Bruce tags him again. This time it HAS to be the Exclusive Tag. So the Redskins tag him. At this point, there are three options.

a) Cousins signs the tag an works out a LTD (see #3)

b) Cousins plays on the tag again

c) The Redskins tell Cousins its ok to talk to other teams to work out a deal and the Redskins trade him for picks.

 

Personally, I'm going with 4b

 

Will the Redskins want to pay $34M for Cousins to test FA next year?

My guess is it will be the Transition Tag as the final "F*ck you" to Cousins so he has to go to a team like the Jets or Browns and not a favorable situation like the Jags, Bills or Broncos. 

Pros

- could match a deal 

- if he leaves he goes to the Browns or Jets then Allen and Snyder can say "look he played us, he never wanted to sign a deal we could match"

- if he decides he really wants FA in 2019 then maybe he doesn't sign an offer elsewhere and you pay him $28 instead of $34.

Cons

- drag it out another year if he doesn't sign somewhere

- lose him for no compensation 

 

IMO I think the Transition Tag and the potential pros out weighs the late third round pick in 2019. Side note - if you lose Cousins will you guys need to sit out of FA this year? If you sign too many players you may not land a 3rd round comp next year.

[Dashing202]

3 hours ago, Bobby816 said:

Totally can understand the frustration. But the Jets organization is starving for a good QB, have a ton of cap space and don’t draft until 6... he’s probably our best case scenario this offseason. That’s if he even becomes available somehow.

He isn't bad but I'm telling you from as a redskins fan . Put 2015 Kirk cousins vs 2017 it's completely two different guys . Like Kirk looked much better and for what ever reason he checked down a lot .

it isn't Jackson or Garçon the truth is losing Sean Mcvay was the real loss. He designed good plays for the skins .

that being said Kirk isn't amazing but he would be good for the jets. As a skins fan I think we should go a different route simply because of cap issues .

[rdelaney89]

3 hours ago, Dashing202 said:

He isn't bad but I'm telling you from as a redskins fan . Put 2015 Kirk cousins vs 2017 it's completely two different guys . Like Kirk looked much better and for what ever reason he checked down a lot .

it isn't Jackson or Garçon the truth is losing Sean Mcvay was the real loss. He designed good plays for the skins .

that being said Kirk isn't amazing but he would be good for the jets. As a skins fan I think we should go a different route simply because of cap issues .

You don't think all the injured players in 2017 and losing two 1000 yard receivers played a major part? I agree McVay was a huge lose but if nothing else Kirk can stay stable regardless of coaching and personnel changes.

I do think Cousins at his assumed asking price is a better fit for the Jets than the Redskins at this point. 

[jetskid007]

These playoffs are just proof that excellent drafting and roster building can get you all the way to the super bowl, despite the QB. It's making me change my prospective how heavy we go after Kirk... 

[Rockice_8]

1 hour ago, jetskid007 said:

These playoffs are just proof that excellent drafting and roster building can get you all the way to the super bowl, despite the QB. It's making me change my prospective how heavy we go after Kirk... 

I don't see any proof at all.  Brees was robbed and should still be playing.  If Wentz was healthy we likely see Brady vs Wentz or Brady vs Brees two of the best QB's in the NFL.  Great rosters and mediocre QB's typically lead to AFC championship games at best not Superbowl wins.  There are rare occasions but as I said if Wentz is healthy we likely see Brady vs Wentz which is two elite QB's.    

Only proof is that elite QB's win Superbowl way more often then mediocre ones. 

[Dashing202]

5 hours ago, rdelaney89 said:

You don't think all the injured players in 2017 and losing two 1000 yard receivers played a major part? I agree McVay was a huge lose but if nothing else Kirk can stay stable regardless of coaching and personnel changes.

I do think Cousins at his assumed asking price is a better fit for the Jets than the Redskins at this point. 

No because he wasn't having issues when the where injured . He missed Jordan reed a ton.

i want the jets to get him infact insee the jets getting him.

the real loss what Garçon because even after Jackson left the O produced . He missed a lot of Doctson to I wish I could prove it I think there's play by play graphs on a  site . But against KC on the GW drive Reed was open and threw to Doctson . Not gonna lie it was as tough throw and catch and I won't fault Kirk how ever he also missed Reed who for years was his go to guy .

if it's any WR it's Garçon .. Jackson was good but he came strong last last year . Jackson wasn't a factor till late last season.

He's an upgrade over mccown and any jets qb . But he isn't top ten id say around 13-14 .

he be good for the jets . His strength is his quick release and has accurate short throws . His arm is limited but at times it looks really good . He's inconsistent throwing downfield tho sometimes he overthrows . And when he's on fire he's on fire but visa versa on him being bad .

Good luck hope u sign him so we can go on another direction.

[rdelaney89]

4 hours ago, Rockice_8 said:

I don't see any proof at all.  Brees was robbed and should still be playing.  If Wentz was healthy we likely see Brady vs Wentz or Brady vs Brees two of the best QB's in the NFL.  Great rosters and mediocre QB's typically lead to AFC championship games at best not Superbowl wins.  There are rare occasions but as I said if Wentz is healthy we likely see Brady vs Wentz which is two elite QB's.    

Only proof is that elite QB's win Superbowl way more often then mediocre ones. 

Yea I agree, these final 4 are fools gold IMO. Completely agree that it should be Brees, Wentz and Brady as 3 of the 4 QBs and then the Jags benefited from the 2nd easiest schedule and the fact Mike Tomlin is a garbage HC. 

[rickyt31]

I think some of you are looking too hard into the QBs instead of the surrounding that was built around them. Of course we should aim for a franchise QB, but we shouldn't take our eyes off the surrounding. Especially when we have the chance to spread out $100M+/Draft picks around the roster.  You want the roster that can win with someone like Foles or Bradford. We could end up with Rosen and build the same type of roster we had back in 09-10 but this time do a better job of keeping talent around the QB to groom with. Either way, we need to build the surrounding asap. 

[Rockice_8]

1 hour ago, rickyt31 said:

I think some of you are looking too hard into the QBs instead of the surrounding that was built around them. Of course we should aim for a franchise QB, but we shouldn't take our eyes off the surrounding. Especially when we have the chance to spread out $100M+/Draft picks around the roster.  You want the roster that can win with someone like Foles or Bradford. We could end up with Rosen and build the same type of roster we had back in 09-10 but this time do a better job of keeping talent around the QB to groom with. Either way, we need to build the surrounding asap. 

When you don't have the QB then you can never look hard enough for one.  

I'm 100% all in on Rosen (if his medicals are good on his shoulder) or Mayfield.  If we can land one of them then I think both have the chance to be a franchise QB's.  If it takes a trade up so be it but we have to land one of them.  I'd be ok with a trade down and Jackson but prefer the trade up for the other two.  If we have a feeling DEN will take Allen and Mayfield will be there at 6 even better but we can't afford to sit back if we are unsure.

If it takes next years first and the SEA 2nd so be it.  We can then focus that 100M+ on the OL and defense but the number 1 priority is the QB first and foremost.  

[rdelaney89]

12 hours ago, rickyt31 said:

I think some of you are looking too hard into the QBs instead of the surrounding that was built around them. Of course we should aim for a franchise QB, but we shouldn't take our eyes off the surrounding. Especially when we have the chance to spread out $100M+/Draft picks around the roster.  You want the roster that can win with someone like Foles or Bradford. We could end up with Rosen and build the same type of roster we had back in 09-10 but this time do a better job of keeping talent around the QB to groom with. Either way, we need to build the surrounding asap. 

That's why Cousins is so attractive. You can sign him, still have $71M in cap space (4th in the NFL) and then use all your draft picks on BPA. We'd still have $45M in cap space next year (which would be 11th in the NFL this year). By the time 2020 rolls around and you need to pay our own FAs you are talking about Cousins being paid equivalent to the 16th highest paid QB this year or 12.0% of our overall cap in 2020.

[jetskid007]

On 1/15/2018 at 2:28 PM, Rockice_8 said:

I don't see any proof at all.  Brees was robbed and should still be playing.  If Wentz was healthy we likely see Brady vs Wentz or Brady vs Brees two of the best QB's in the NFL.  Great rosters and mediocre QB's typically lead to AFC championship games at best not Superbowl wins.  There are rare occasions but as I said if Wentz is healthy we likely see Brady vs Wentz which is two elite QB's.    

Only proof is that elite QB's win Superbowl way more often then mediocre ones. 

I'm not suggesting bypassing the QB entirely, but just look at the salary cap structure/positional spending for all these teams... Eagles were 26th in the league, Jaguars 24th, Patriots 20th, and the Vikings were 7th. 

Don't get me wrong, I believe signing Cousins is the smartest thing for us, but some of the best teams over the past decade have had star defenses with either cheap QBs or QBs just good enough for you to win if the team around is elite. Being able to invest money into positions around the QB has its advantages, as we're seeing this year. 

The Eagles model (trade up for a QB and acquire capable veteran backup) is a valid way to go, as is acquiring a veteran and drafting a QB on day 2. More than one way to skin a cat if Cousins isn't available... 

[Rockice_8]

9 hours ago, jetskid007 said:

I'm not suggesting bypassing the QB entirely, but just look at the salary cap structure/positional spending for all these teams... Eagles were 26th in the league, Jaguars 24th, Patriots 20th, and the Vikings were 7th. 

Don't get me wrong, I believe signing Cousins is the smartest thing for us, but some of the best teams over the past decade have had star defenses with either cheap QBs or QBs just good enough for you to win if the team around is elite. Being able to invest money into positions around the QB has its advantages, as we're seeing this year. 

The Eagles model (trade up for a QB and acquire capable veteran backup) is a valid way to go, as is acquiring a veteran and drafting a QB on day 2. More than one way to skin a cat if Cousins isn't available... 

I'm not even 100% sold on Cousins anyway.  I want a good young QB like Mayfield or Rosen.  That way in 2 years we could potentially have a 23-24 year old franchise QB and with the rest of the money used on a team surrounding him good enough to win.

We could make a run with a QB on a rookie scale and tons of money pumped into the supporting cast like JAC.  We just need to hope whoever we have is a better QB then Bortles.

If whoever we draft turns out to be great we set ourselves up for sustained success.  That's what I prefer over any other approach.  Going the retread route like Smith, Bradford, Tyrod whoever is the last thing I'd want.  Only way I'm bring in one of them if it's on a glorified 1 year deal so that if Rosen/Mayfield need to be eased in we have that ability.

 

[jetskid007]

8 hours ago, Rockice_8 said:

I'm not even 100% sold on Cousins anyway.  I want a good young QB like Mayfield or Rosen.  That way in 2 years we could potentially have a 23-24 year old franchise QB and with the rest of the money used on a team surrounding him good enough to win.

We could make a run with a QB on a rookie scale and tons of money pumped into the supporting cast like JAC.  We just need to hope whoever we have is a better QB then Bortles.

If whoever we draft turns out to be great we set ourselves up for sustained success.  That's what I prefer over any other approach.  Going the retread route like Smith, Bradford, Tyrod whoever is the last thing I'd want.  Only way I'm bring in one of them if it's on a glorified 1 year deal so that if Rosen/Mayfield need to be eased in we have that ability.

 

I agree with you, but it can also set us back for 5 years. 

[JetsandI]

If Jets hired Haley, you could kiss a goodbye to Cousins.

[rdelaney89]

13 hours ago, Rockice_8 said:

I'm not even 100% sold on Cousins anyway.  I want a good young QB like Mayfield or Rosen.  That way in 2 years we could potentially have a 23-24 year old franchise QB and with the rest of the money used on a team surrounding him good enough to win.

We could make a run with a QB on a rookie scale and tons of money pumped into the supporting cast like JAC.  We just need to hope whoever we have is a better QB then Bortles.

If whoever we draft turns out to be great we set ourselves up for sustained success.  That's what I prefer over any other approach.  Going the retread route like Smith, Bradford, Tyrod whoever is the last thing I'd want.  Only way I'm bring in one of them if it's on a glorified 1 year deal so that if Rosen/Mayfield need to be eased in we have that ability.

 

The issue with that is you are likely over drafting a player who has a higher probability to bust than Cousins. With Cousins you could have $71M in cap space (4th in the league this year), $45M in cap next year (would be 11th in league this year) and full array of draft picks the next 2 years. Then by the time the front loaded portion of the deal for Cousins is done (2020) you'd have him at such a low cap % that it would be comparable to paying him like the 16th highest paid QB this year. I think he is certainly worth top 16 money and I don't think he'd leave us hamstrung in either of the next 2 offseasons in terms of surrounding him with talent.