Eagles trade for RB D'Andre Swift

[Ty21]

2 hours ago, incognito_man said:

You can say that. 

If a RB and ILB hit in the first round? Congratulations! You're spending $5mil on $8mil of value.

But they passed on EDGE, CB and IDL which, if they hit, you get $15-25mil in value from spending $5mil.

Your best case is slightly above breaking even. 

It's like having a stock draft at the age of 40 and you are on the clock with Microsoft, Tesla and Berkshire Hathaway sitting there and you  choose a 2% CD instead.

There was a Berkshire Hathaway in this draft?

[diehardlionfan]

45 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

Let's be genuine and factor in the likelihood that Gibbs will be as highly rated at his respective position as the other available and more valuable position players, too. 

Every way you look at this (except for EXTREME Detroit optimism) results in lost value. Most cases, significant lost value.

No, not ever way you look at it. It’s simply the way you look at. You mention extreme Detroit Optimism while taking an extreme negative position based on very limited information. 

[diehardlionfan]

1 hour ago, nagahide13 said:

Word salad

I could think of another number of descriptors. 😎

[Jameson_Neat]

1 minute ago, Ty21 said:

There was a Berkshire Hathaway in this draft?

It's funny because I remember when everyone was saying this draft was full of Kmarts, Enrons, Bed/Bath/Beyond, etc.

 

[rob_shadows]

2 hours ago, incognito_man said:

You can say that. 

If a RB and ILB hit in the first round? Congratulations! You're spending $5mil on $8mil of value.

But they passed on EDGE, CB and IDL which, if they hit, you get $15-25mil in value from spending $5mil.

Your best case is slightly above breaking even. 

It's like having a stock draft at the age of 40 and you are on the clock with Microsoft, Tesla and Berkshire Hathaway sitting there and you  choose a 2% CD instead.

I agree that those positions are higher value than RB but you also have to look at this specific draft... This was a very VERY weak draft class at D-line and DB... Hell the 3rd overall pick in Will Anderson is at best the 4th edge rusher taken last year, Van Ness and Calijah Kancey would have been lucky to have made the 1st round last year. I was high on Gonzalez but look at all the teams that passed including several with needs at CB... Teams obviously didn't view him at high as all of us arm chair GMs did. 

Holmes also mentioned it's not really accurate to say the drafted a "RB" at 12 because he's going to be used in ways you don't use a typical RB... Sure he'll get some carries but he'll also line up at WR often... Remember this was Alabama's leading receiver last year. No one would have complained if it was JSN at 12 and Gibbs can do the same things JSN does while also having the ability to run effectively from the backfield. Context is important instead is just saying "they drafted a RB"

I'm not saying the lions should have taken Gibbs (I personally wouldn't have) but I understand it if he's a guy you have rated as an elite potential player in a draft that has very very few of them.

As for Campbell it's the same situation, people need to stop looking at it as Detroit drafting an "ILB", The lions run a base nickel... They don't have an "ILB" on the field, they have 2 LBers and on any given play they may be asked to cover or blitz... And they are put into coverage a lot which is Campbell strength as the highest rated coverage LBer in this draft. The lions have been murdered by TEs for years because we didn't have a LB who could drop into coverage and take away those passing lanes... Campbell excels at doing just that.

Is that as valuable as a pass rusher? No... But who exactly did they pass on at 18 the was a potential immediate starter as a pass rusher? There were none, Nolan Smith? Again... Detroit runs a base nickel... Where do you play him? His coverage skills aren't good enough to start as an every down LB and he's too small to be an every down End... There just isn't really a fit for him on this defense to properly utilize his skill set.

[nagahide13]

15 minutes ago, rob_shadows said:

I agree that those positions are higher value than RB but you also have to look at this specific draft... This was a very VERY weak draft class at D-line and DB... Hell the 3rd overall pick in Will Anderson is at best the 4th edge rusher taken last year, Van Ness and Calijah Kancey would have been lucky to have made the 1st round last year. I was high on Gonzalez but look at all the teams that passed including several with needs at CB... Teams obviously didn't view him at high as all of us arm chair GMs did. 

Holmes also mentioned it's not really accurate to say the drafted a "RB" at 12 because he's going to be used in ways you don't use a typical RB... Sure he'll get some carries but he'll also line up at WR often... Remember this was Alabama's leading receiver last year. No one would have complained if it was JSN at 12 and Gibbs can do the same things JSN does while also having the ability to run effectively from the backfield. Context is important instead is just saying "they drafted a RB"

I'm not saying the lions should have taken Gibbs (I personally wouldn't have) but I understand it if he's a guy you have rated as an elite potential player in a draft that has very very few of them.

As for Campbell it's the same situation, people need to stop looking at it as Detroit drafting an "ILB", The lions run a base nickel... They don't have an "ILB" on the field, they have 2 LBers and on any given play they may be asked to cover or blitz... And they are put into coverage a lot which is Campbell strength as the highest rated coverage LBer in this draft. The lions have been murdered by TEs for years because we didn't have a LB who could drop into coverage and take away those passing lanes... Campbell excels at doing just that.

Is that as valuable as a pass rusher? No... But who exactly did they pass on at 18 the was a potential immediate starter as a pass rusher? There were none, Nolan Smith? Again... Detroit runs a base nickel... Where do you play him? His coverage skills aren't good enough to start as an every down LB and he's too small to be an every down End... There just isn't really a fit for him on this defense to properly utilize his skill set.

Yeah. The Lions just pretty clearly didn't like much of anyone in this draft, and they were happy getting the guys they got where they did. Apparently they liked Gibbs so much they were prepared to take him at #6. That would have been something.

https://heavy.com/sports/detroit-lions/jahmyr-gibbs-nfl-draft-brad-holmes/

As a Lions fan I was baffled by the 1st round. I wasn't particularly upset, just baffled. I listened to what a bunch of GMs and former players said and tempered my opinion some. I guess we could easily call that Detroit Optimism. I certainly don't WANT them to be bad.

I wanted Richardson/Witherspoon/Anderson/Carter/Gonzalez at 6 and Gibbs/White/Kancey/Forbes/Murphy at 18 and Campbell in the 2nd, But I'll certainly take the foursome of Gibbs, Campbell, LaPorta and Branch over a bunch of the potential options. If Detroit had taken Porter, Branch or even Mayer at 12 I don't think many people would have flinched.

[nagahide13]

Quote

The reality of Detroit’s situation is this: In 2022, the Lions tied with the Eagles for the NFL’s sixth-best number when it came to adjusted line yards — or, rushing yards specifically created by the offensive line. The Lions were 15th in second-level yards, per FootballOutsiders. The Eagles were second. The difference, in Detroit’s opinion, was on running backs Jamaal Williams and Swift.

https://theathletic.com/4470215/2023/04/29/dandre-swift-trade-eagles-nfl-draft/

This is perhaps even a bit more helpful.  This is why we didn't care which mid-range RB we paid, we just needed them to be durable. Monty fits that bill (hopefully) like a charm. Gibbs adds a bit of lightning that we just didn't have at all before. We'd love for Swift to live up to his potential but he didn't here. Not even close. His visor looks the part and that's about it.

[incognito_man]

54 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

All I can say is the Rams don't seem to care about how other teams do things in terms of value, and it's worked for us. Brad Holmes, the Lions GM, spent his entire career with the Rams. It doesn't surprise me that he has a similar outlook.

Has it worked out? Rams got historically lucky in their opponent in their SB win and a year later had (and still have) one of the worst rosters in football with a bleak outlook.

Rams faced the 17th ranked DVOA team in the SB (-0.1%) compared to other recent SB losers. Rams SB victory is an ENORMOUS outlier in opponent quality in the last decade+.

2022 - Philly 3rd (25.2%)

2021 - CIN 17th (-0.1%)

2020 - KC 6th (19.6%)

2019 - SF 5th (29.0%)

2018 - LAR 3rd (23.9%)

2017 - NE 6th (22.2%)

2016 - ATL 3rd (23.9%)

2015 - CAR 4th (25.5%)

2014 - SEA 1st (31.7%)

2013 - DEN 2nd (33.2%)

2012 - SF 4th (30.2%)

2011 - NE 4th (21.5%)

2010 - PIT 2nd (34.7%)

[incognito_man]

59 minutes ago, diehardlionfan said:

1. Availability is really important. Swift has availability issues. The guy gets a bruise and he’s out or limited. The Lions want to maximize the running game and take advantage of a very good oline. There has been zero reasons to doubt Holmes ability in the draft except amongst internet warriors and the talking heads which showed again public opinion isn’t a criteria GM’s use. Deuce Staley had numerous comments about Swifts softness and his inability to recognize discomfort and bruises aren’t INJURIES.

I agree. Availa is perhaps the most important ability in the NFL. I have not and am not criticizing the actual prospect. It's irrelevant to me. I think the Falcons are foolish for taking Bijan in the top 10 as well. Just like the Giants were for taking Barkley in the top 5. The value surplus isn't there for the position.

1 hour ago, diehardlionfan said:

2. Everyone  talks about value without recognizing it can mean numerous things. In my view value is drafting players that provide the most improvement to your team. If Gibbs is the player they think he is then the pick is more than justified and there were numerous big boards with Gibbs ranking  between 15 and 18 on big boards. In any event his value will be proven or disproven on the field so at this point it’s all assumptions.

Value can easily be determined by following the money. This is a multi-multi billion dollar industry. Most of the rich guys prefer to keep getting richer. Getting richer isn't a perfect 1-to-1 correlation with on-the-field success, but it's pretty close to the point where the driving factors behind decision making are generally to field the best possible team. Since all teams are limited by the salary cap, this requires maximizing value. Value does not mean numerous things, it means just one thing: getting the most production per dollar you possibly can from your roster. I absolutely understand that roster construction comes into it. I created a GB specific big board/multiplier this year by looking extensively at roster construction. And RBs (along with TEs and S) provide a fraction of the value even if you don't have another player on the team at the same position. Detroit could literally have had no RBs on their roster and taking one in the top 12 is still awful, awful value.

 

1 hour ago, diehardlionfan said:

3. I certainly think Holmes and Campbell know their players better than you so they’re much better able to determine which players offer the most value to the Lions.

We'll see. If they're right, Gibbs will earn more money in his career than, say, everyone taken 10 picks after him. Ditto on Campbell. If I'm right, there will be at least half of the guys taken after them that earn more money in their careers (and thus are obviously valued by the league more).

 

1 hour ago, diehardlionfan said:

Without access to the Lions scouting reports, interview results etc. those slamming the pick are forming steadfast opinions with very limited information.

None of this is necessary to understand positional importance. It literally doesn't matter who the player is. The league just doesn't value the position.

[jrry32]

13 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

Has it worked out? Rams got historically lucky in their opponent in their SB win and a year later had (and still have) one of the worst rosters in football with a bleak outlook.

Rams faced the 17th ranked DVOA team in the SB (-0.1%) compared to other recent SB losers. Rams SB victory is an ENORMOUS outlier in opponent quality in the last decade+.

2022 - Philly 3rd (25.2%)

2021 - CIN 17th (-0.1%)

2020 - KC 6th (19.6%)

2019 - SF 5th (29.0%)

2018 - LAR 3rd (23.9%)

2017 - NE 6th (22.2%)

2016 - ATL 3rd (23.9%)

2015 - CAR 4th (25.5%)

2014 - SEA 1st (31.7%)

2013 - DEN 2nd (33.2%)

2012 - SF 4th (30.2%)

2011 - NE 4th (21.5%)

2010 - PIT 2nd (34.7%)

L-O-L. The Rams lucked into a Super Bowl. Since McVay became the HC (six years ago), the Rams are 67-41 (62%) with two Super Bowl appearances and one Super Bowl win. Yes, it has worked out beautifully. And now, they're revamping the squad to make the next run in 2024.

Edited May 1, 2023 by jrry32

[incognito_man]

1 hour ago, diehardlionfan said:

No, not ever way you look at it. It’s simply the way you look at. You mention extreme Detroit Optimism while taking an extreme negative position based on very limited information. 

no. you literally need to have an EXTREME homeristic view of Detroit success to see Gibbs getting surplus value vs other options. He was taken 12th overall. How many RBs in the last 15 years have been top 15 career earners in their draft class since 2010 on at least their 2nd contracts? (I can tell you because I've done the research on this. The answer is 2. From the data I have, in the 8yr span from 2010-2017, 2 of the top 120 earners have been RBs. Then compare that to other positions: 33 EDGE, 15 CB. It's extremely unlikely he will produce enough to warrant being valued as the 12th highest player in this draft even if he is easily the best RB from his class. Your defense was in the bottom 5 last year. Your staff needed to think that Gibbs was 33/2 = 16.5x more likely to succeed than Lukas Van Ness to warrant that selection. 

You cannot spin this. It was a terrible value selection.

[incognito_man]

10 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

L-O-L. The Rams lucked into a Super Bowl. Since McVay became the HC (six years ago), the Rams are 67-41 (62%) with two Super Bowl appearances and one Super Bowl win. Yes, it has worked out beautifully. And now, they're revamping the squad to make the next run in 2024.

I just proved to you how they faced BY FAR the weakest opponent in a SB win in the last dozen+ years. Pathetic response. Yes, they very, very, VERY much lucked into a weak SB opponent.

[incognito_man]

1 hour ago, rob_shadows said:

I agree that those positions are higher value than RB but you also have to look at this specific draft... This was a very VERY weak draft class at D-line and DB... Hell the 3rd overall pick in Will Anderson is at best the 4th edge rusher taken last year, Van Ness and Calijah Kancey would have been lucky to have made the 1st round last year. I was high on Gonzalez but look at all the teams that passed including several with needs at CB... Teams obviously didn't view him at high as all of us arm chair GMs did. 

It doesn't matter THAT much. Like I said above, you need to think a RB is at least 10x as likely to succeed/produce on your current roster vs an EDGE option to warrant that selection. If you have at least THREE stud EDGE guys where EDGE4 is only going to see like 20% of the snaps for the next 3-4 years, then sure, his production is going to be significantly limited by your current roster construction. Last year Detroit had a relatively good offense and a terrible defense. There's NO WAY a RB is remotely close to the most value addition they could have made.

1 hour ago, rob_shadows said:

Holmes also mentioned it's not really accurate to say the drafted a "RB" at 12 because he's going to be used in ways you don't use a typical RB... Sure he'll get some carries but he'll also line up at WR often... Remember this was Alabama's leading receiver last year. No one would have complained if it was JSN at 12 and Gibbs can do the same things JSN does while also having the ability to run effectively from the backfield. Context is important instead is just saying "they drafted a RB"

Funny you mention this. We had this EXACT discussion about the relative value of Bijan Robinson vs JSN on the GB forum. I did the math (because I was initially low on JSN and loved Bijan and was hoping to find out he was more valuable). I factored in Bijan as 50% WR 50% RB (which is EXTREMELY generous to his value) and he still doesn't beat out the value of JSN if you use any comparative prospect grade they each got. RB is just such a low value position, that even if you spice it up a full 50% to a highly valuable position like WR it barely had Bijan crack the top 15 of this class in value potential.

 

Edited May 2, 2023 by incognito_man

[jrry32]

5 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

I just proved to you how they faced BY FAR the weakest opponent in a SB win in the last dozen+ years. Pathetic response. Yes, they very, very, VERY much lucked into a weak SB opponent.

We had to beat Tom Brady and then a stacked 49ers team to get there. It's a clownish take. And I'm going to laugh at it. Rams have been to two Super Bowls in six years and won one. So yes, it is working quite well.

[nagahide13]

Are you arguing that career earnings are the best comparison for how good a player was over their career? Even if we're not accounting for each teams relative needs and depth at specific positions this seems asinine.

Jimmy Garoppolo has made more than Jason Peters. Sure the NFL values QBs more than OTs, but does that mean that Jason Peters is a less valuable player over his career? As a foundational piece of a team, is there a world in which you draft Jimmy G over Jason Peters/Tyron Smith/DHop/?

I mean, Allen Robinson has made more money than TY Hilton in 2 fewer years. Criminy.

Edited May 2, 2023 by nagahide13