5 Surprising Moves by the OAK Raiders in 2018

[Baggabonez]

• • Jack finishes 6-10 and is retained

  Why this is a surprise: The Raiders were projected by many pundits to compete for a Super Bowl in 2017 after finishing 2016 exceeding expectations. In that sense, HC Jack Del Rio may have been his worse enemy as he may have set unrealistic expectations heading into 2017. However, currently 5-6, I have the Raiders limping to a 6-10 finish. Despite holding off a completely hamstrung Broncos team last week the Raiders showed me very little to be excited about their future prospects this season. If the Raiders finish 6-10 there will be a massive quell to fire Del Rio.
  What are the concerns?: The inherent weakness in having a defensive HC is retaining quality offensive assistants. However, defensive HCs can find consistent success provided they can generate offense. Here lies the rub, Del Rio did not retain the services of former OC Musgrave, the orchestrator of the NFL's 6th ranked offence in 2016. The offense fell flat (Currently ranked 19th) and the franchise QB regressed. Del Rio is squarely responsible.
  Why this makes sense: Good NFL organizations do not make knee jerk reactions and exhibit stability and consistency. Objectively, the Raiders defense (currently ranked 9th overall) nearly devoid of sacks and QB pressure may not be that far away provided the offense can return to proficiency. Perhaps the best move is NOT to throw the baby out with the dirty bath water as lack of offense seems to be the bigger problem. Obviously, JDR needs to make the right OC hire going into 2018 to save his job.
   

  • RB Marshawn Lynch is released

  Why this is a surprise: Despite his slow start, Lynch appears to have played himself into shape and is in the upper percentile of the NFL in terms of yard after contact and tackles broken. In addition, Lynch is a local fan favorite for a team that needs to sell tickets until they move to their new home in Las Vegas in 2020.
  What are the concerns?: Lynch will be a 32 year old power running back next season. Analytically, it's not a good bet that Lynch will be as good next season as he has been on the back side of the schedule. In addition, Lynch isn't a great fit in this offense as he is not a great receiver out of the backfield. Although, it's obvious the Raiders have made efforts to get him more involved in the passing game so that his presence on the field is less of a tell that the offense is going to run.
  Why this makes sense: The Raiders need to save money where ever they can to afford LB Khalil Mack. Lynch is scheduled to make $6M in 2018. He can still contribute but may not be worth $6M considering his fit in the offense and his extra baggage. The Raiders can cut Lynch in 2018 and save $6M in cap space without creating any dead money and will probably do so.

  • RB Crabtree is released

  Why this is a surprise: It could be argued that Crabtree is the Raider's WR1 as he has a knack for making acrobatic contested grabs and big receptions in clutch moments. At times, It appears Crabtree is Carr's most trusted WR target in critical situations.
  What are the concerns?: Crabtree isn't a burner. In 2018, Crabtree will be a 31 year old WR and may struggle to get separation the way Dez Bryant, who has a similar skill set, has suffered a percipitous drop off in his ability to get open without pushing off.
  Why this makes sense: Analytically, the Raiders may decide it best to unload Crabtree then be left holding the bag of an expensive 31 year old possession WR. The Raiders have an opt out clause in 2018. The can save $7.687M without any dead money if they opt out.

   

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[SilverNBlackFan]

30 minutes ago, Baggabonez said:

• • 
    Why this makes sense: Good NFL organizations do not make knee jerk reactions and exhibit stability and consistency. Objectively, the Raiders defense (currently ranked 9th overall) nearly devoid of sacks and QB pressure may not be that far away provided the offense can return to proficiency.

   

this cant be true

[drfrey13]

3 hours ago, SilverNBlackFan said:

this cant be true

I think he forgot the 1 in front of the 9.

[SilverNBlackFan]

4 hours ago, drfrey13 said:

I think he forgot the 1 in front of the 9.

Are we 19? That seems too high as well

[NightTrainLane]

2 hours ago, SilverNBlackFan said:

Are we 19? That seems too high as well

It depends on what metric he is using to quantify it.

[Nightmare]

We're 9th in defensive yards allowed.

Using yards gained (offense) and yards allowed (defense) are the common barometer for rating O/D units, but they're generally a poor way of doing so. Surely we all remember the Asomugha days where we were a terrible team but were 3rd ranked against the pass. Nobody in the world actually believed we were the 3rd best team against the pass, and this stat basically existed because our run D was so horrendous that nobody even needed to try passing on us. The defense that year was also ranked pretty decent overall because teams would get two scores up on us and could basically stop playing and run the clock out at will, knowing our offense was also bad and couldn't score.

Basically while we've allowed the 9th fewest yards, we're ranked 21st in points against, and we're also the worst in interceptions, 29th in sacks, T23 in FFs. So take that stat with a pinch of salt. Or a whole shaker of it.

[Dessie]

There’s only 3 moves listed, why is it entitled 5? 

[big_palooka]

18 minutes ago, Dessie said:

There’s only 3 moves listed, why is it entitled 5? 

The rest were in the link he posted for his blog

Guessing he didn't list #4 because heads will explode lol "Hue Jackson returns as Asst.HC/OC"

Lol.... that would be something. Davis by all account forced McKenzie to get rid of him and Hue's ego is WAY to big to come back to Oakland IMO

[Dessie]

1 minute ago, big_palooka said:

The rest were in the link he posted for his blog

Guessing he didn't list #4 because heads will explode lol "Hue Jackson returns as Asst.HC/OC"

Lol.... that would be something. Davis by all account forced McKenzie to get rid of him and Hue's ego is WAY to big to come back to Oakland IMO

So this thread was just to publicise his blog. Glad I didn’t read it.

[Silver&Black88]

Just when you thought the Raiders 2017 couldn't be more surprising: YOU WONT BELIEVE WHAT HAPPENS NEXT

[Baggabonez]

3 hours ago, Dessie said:

So this thread was just to publicise his blog. Glad I didn’t read it.

This post was not JUST to promote my blog. I'm trying to go independent as I've been writing for awhile. This is what is wrong with the culture on this board. Even if you disagree with the writer you should support or else the medium goes away. POV writing sparks conversation and thought. Rather we would like to just be haters at what we perceive as someone trying to advance as "getting over". I'm not making any money nor is that the goal. Just pursuing my passion. Thanks for the support. 

[Dessie]

14 minutes ago, Baggabonez said:

This post was not JUST to promote my blog. I'm trying to go independent as I've been writing for awhile. This is what is wrong with the culture on this board. Even if you disagree with the writer you should support or else the medium goes away. POV writing sparks conversation and thought. Rather we would like to just be haters at what we perceive as someone trying to advance as "getting over". I'm not making any money nor is that the goal. Just pursuing my passion. Thanks for the support. 

If it wasn’t about promoting your blog you would have just listed the 5 ‘surprising’’ moves. Shouldn’t be using this site to promote your own blog. It’s not what it’s for.

[Jerry]

I bet we keep Crabtree and restructure his contract before we release him.  Put him at the #2 receiver position and draft another receiver in the early rounds or sign a #1 receiver.  That way we can put Cooper in the slot so he can do some serious damage next year.  M. Lynch isn't going anywhere.  The guy is only getting better as the season goes on and if the trend continues there will literally be no reason why we should release him.  Hue Jackson isn't coming back.  Too much of that purple drink in this post.

[Baggabonez]

21 hours ago, Jerry said:

I bet we keep Crabtree and restructure his contract before we release him.  Put him at the #2 receiver position and draft another receiver in the early rounds or sign a #1 receiver.  That way we can put Cooper in the slot so he can do some serious damage next year.  M. Lynch isn't going anywhere.  The guy is only getting better as the season goes on and if the trend continues there will literally be no reason why we should release him.  Hue Jackson isn't coming back.  Too much of that purple drink in this post.

Put (Crabtree) at the #2 receiver position and draft another receiver in the early rounds or sign a #1 receiver.

1) This is a very weak draft for WRs. With such a serious void at DE, ILB and LT (Penn can't play forever) you're suggesting going WR early. If that WR were develop slowly surely it would put RM&co on the hottest of seats with so many holes.

(Lynch) is only getting better as the season goes on and if the trend continues there will literally be no reason why we should release him. 

2) You're assuming that what will be a 32 yo expensive RB will continue to ascend . . . . .but that's what we do. While elite organizations, like the Patriots, are always calculating when to trade, release or waive players to maximize efficient. Well, we should hold on until we are assured every drop in the gas tank is gone.

Hue Jackson isn't coming back.

3) Highly unlikely but the entire purpose of being "surprising" is to think outside of the box. I could have done "5 Expected Off-season Moves" and just regurgitated all the moves we all want to happen but never do and you then you can "cut-n-paste" the same comment over and over.

[Darbsk]

Enjoyed reading those Baggbonez and some very interesting speculation. I would be very surprised if any of those moves came to be apart from #1 - I think apart from losing the locker room JDR is safe for another year and has credit in the bank from breaking the long playoff drought last year. It would be very interesting to see what Hue Jackson could do as I always rated him as an OC who was brave and unconventional and much like yourself, think he's a much better OC than a HC. Of course, I don't actually think he's coming back but he could potentially work wonders with this offence IMHO.