Grade the draft

[Old Guy]

2 minutes ago, Scoremore said:

Come on now.  He is a capable swing tackle and that's about it.  Really shouldn't be a preferred starter he's not good enough.  Don't get me wrong he still has value but he's not going to get paid like a top tier OT.  

Look what Allen Lazard just got. If a team views him as a legitimate starter at LT, he's going to get paid. When he paid LT he was more than serviceable. You know how many teams would be happy with a serviceable LT and pay a lot for one. Not saying it will happen. He may not get a shot to play any LT this year. It is a distinct possibility he can earn a ton of cash. 

[incognito_man]

18 minutes ago, Old Guy said:

I'd really like to have five to six guys catch between 50 - 60 balls. Watson, Doubs, Reed, Musgrave, Jones and Deguara. 

IF that happens the offense is really clicking on all cylinders and the defense doesn't know who to take away. They have to cover every inch of grass. 

I know I'm immediately higher than most everyone here on Reed. But he has that #1 WR skillset I think. He could be a guy that earns a lot of targets. With Watson getting premium targets, but fewer overall.

[Old Guy]

9 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

I know I'm immediately higher than most everyone here on Reed. But he has that #1 WR skillset I think. He could be a guy that earns a lot of targets. With Watson getting premium targets, but fewer overall.

It's possible but like I said, I'd love to see 5 or 6 guys have 50 - 60 catches each. 

EDIT: More realistically 4 -5  guys with 50 or 60 catches. 

Edited May 1, 2023 by Old Guy

[Chili]

I've read that Gute tried to trade up into the bottom of the 3rd round. It makes me wonder who we were targeting because doing so we would've lost the pick used to draft Wooden plus others.

I got a gut feeling it was Jake Moody they wanted. We did need a kicker and maybe they had intel that the 49ers wanted him and we tried to jump them.

If not it was probably an OL. Freeman, Saldiveri or Zavala were all taken between Moody's selection and Wooden.

[Mr. Fussnputz]

7 minutes ago, Chili said:

I've read that Gute tried to trade up into the bottom of the 3rd round. It makes me wonder who we were targeting because doing so we would've lost the pick used to draft Wooden plus others.

I got a gut feeling it was Jake Moody they wanted. We did need a kicker and maybe they had intel that the 49ers wanted him and we tried to jump them.

If not it was probably an OL. Freeman, Saldiveri or Zavala were all taken between Moody's selection and Wooden.

I'd bet it was Moody. We're hurting at kicker right now.

[R T]

24 minutes ago, Chili said:

I've read that Gute tried to trade up into the bottom of the 3rd round. It makes me wonder who we were targeting because doing so we would've lost the pick used to draft Wooden plus others.

I got a gut feeling it was Jake Moody they wanted. We did need a kicker and maybe they had intel that the 49ers wanted him and we tried to jump them.

If not it was probably an OL. Freeman, Saldiveri or Zavala were all taken between Moody's selection and Wooden.

Saldiveri was probably the target. Some the Packers position coaches coached him at the Senior Bowl and he had a very good week there. The Packers knew that the Bears who held the first pick in the 4th round probably would take a trade from someone else over any offer from the Packers, so it would make sense for them to attempt to jump the Bears spot. As it turned out the Saints traded with the Bears and took Saldiveri. 

[Green19]

Sounds like the jet fan (rich Eisen) is surprise the former scout thought the packers with a dumb GM (per Pat McAfee’s reporting) did so well.

[HokieHigh]

5 hours ago, Scoremore said:

Come on now.  He is a capable swing tackle and that's about it.  Really shouldn't be a preferred starter he's not good enough.  Don't get me wrong he still has value but he's not going to get paid like a top tier OT.  

This perception is exactly why he has the most to earn. He could go from a journeyman to a top tier contract if the opportunity comes up and he balls out. 

 

[craig]

Couple thoughts from the draft:

1. Upside, upside, upside.  Totally Buildican draft, not Nowacrat.  VanNess, Musgrave, Kraft, talented guys should be good as rookies, but clearly they are drafted for down-the-road.  Nothing unusual, every GM is drafting for down-the-road.  But maybe a little different from drafting Wyatt and Quay last year, and Myers in 21.  
2. 22 productivity (or not).  Seemed like a number of the guys had somewhat limited 22 productivity.  Musgrave missed most of 22.  Kraft was hurt and limited.  Nichols' stats way down.  Carlson struggled.  Reed didn't have numbers that jumped from previously.  Wicks.  I'm guessing Gute had scouting following 2021, and didn't think they'd be available where they were had they been fully healthy in 22, and had 22 productivity progressed .  Ties with upside:  if modest 22 productivity didn't represent upside, they went with traits/upside over productivity recency. 
3. Needs unmet:  "Need" is as perceived.  Packers may perceive Rudy Ford and Innis Gaines and Savage much more favorably than I do. So their perception of "safety-is-need" may differ from mine.  Same at CB depth, strong-anchor DT,  RB-depth, and OL.  They may perceive Ryan and Rasheed and Jones/Newman/etc as arrows-up talents.  But either their perception of need areas differs, or else they didn't let need drive some picks. 
4. Or else it just reflects that the team has too many needs to address?  Only 5 picks in the top 148, can't target every need.  By 149 and 179 (QB and K), you're not expecting guy who's going to fix any present needs anyway.  You're picking for back-of-roster needs/holes.  QB, K, DT, and WR all qualified as roster-holes.  
5. On 3rd day, you're taking shots on "maybe" players who'll need to develop to make it.  But PS and back of roster, you've already got developmental "maybe" guys.  It takes some time to determine when developmental guy isn't going to get there; then you turn him over and try again with some new "maybe".  For OL, maybe all the "maybes" on the current roster will never turn out.   But if some 3rd-round "maybe" doesn't have much better odds than the "maybes" you've already got, what's the point of displacing the existing "maybe". 

[tttmikeb]

Valentine & Johnson scream Bisaccia picks to me.  Both have extensive, quality resumes on special teams in college (and high school).  Not a bad plan in my book.  7th rounders are unlikely to have a major, immediate impact on offense or defense.  If they do, it's a bonus.  But they can potentially have a pretty big impact on special teams, while buying themselves time to earn more playing time outside of ST.  

[VegasDan]

Im giving the draft a solid B+.  I like the mixture of solid players with some risky boom bust picks.

 

Musgrave is the riskiest. We may get Kittle we may get Finley. I'm leaning more towards Finley, but there is a chance he stays healthy and really focuses on football. His lack of broken tackles concerns me that he isn't as competitive as he needs to be. This is not something you develop.

Van Ness is a boom or small pop. His floor is a really good OLB and his ceiling is dominating sack machine. I thought we were going OT Jones with the pick but can't argue the prospect, the need, or the positional importance.

Didn't like the Reed pick, but after looking into him, he seems like a great pick. I discounted him early because of his low RAS, but watching him play, you would think he was an elite athlete. He will have lots of opportunities underneath as Watson stretches the field deep.

Wooden, I thought would be gone in the 3rd. He was a bargain and will take some quality reps as a rookie. Brooks is such a question mark. How will he translate to the NFL level? I think he will translate. I think he plays in a few games as a rookie. It's amazing he led his team 5 years in sacks. How is that possible when you are 18 year old  Going up against 22 year olds?

Kraft is my favorite pick. Seems like a humble good kid. Word is he works very hard and loves playing football. Given his obscene athletic skills, I expect he is the safest pick we took and should be a really good one. 3rd round curse be dammed!

 

2 flier picks on WRs who have a chance to be excellent. They both showed promise at some point.

And curious about the Safety. How was he available in the 7th? Did our medical staff or background check miss something?  Hope he hits!

 

Very solid draft by Gute and friends.  I just wish we went WR in the first. Not to help the team, but to shut up the pundits every time they talk Packers to talk about no WRs or offensive play makers in the first round for the last 77 years. I turned NFLN off and went to ESPN after the 20th time someone mentioned it.

 

Edited May 4, 2023 by VegasDan

[Chili]

1 hour ago, VegasDan said:

Very solid draft by Gute and friends.  I just wish we went WR in the first. Not to help the team, but to shut up the pundits every time they talk Packers to talk about no WRs or offensive play makers in the first round for the last 77 years. I turned NFLN off and went to ESPN after the 20th time someone mentioned it.

That wouldn't have shut them up. It would've made them worse because if we finally invested in one AFTER Rodgers left and the argument for not giving Rodgers more help would have far more validity to it.

[ThatJerkDave]

1 hour ago, VegasDan said:

Didn't like the Reed pick, but after looking into him, he seems like a great pick. I discounted him early because of his low RAS, but watching him play, you would think he was an elite athlete. He will have lots of opportunities underneath as Watson stretches the field deep.

Much like the Jordan Addison post I made in the other thread, let's look at the Jayden Reed RAS:

He is still a 66th percentile athlete by RAS.  The Packers also supposedly timed him even faster than these numbers show.  The part of the RAS that pulls him down is the height and weight categories.  And those are "better" as they get higher.  So in theory, a 7'4 400 pound WR would be a 10.0 on the size metric.  RAS is great, but it is just one measurement tool.  The size grade for WRs is not one that is as important as say, TE, or DL, where small is probably automatically worse.  I am not a fan of the small WRs, but even I know that they can be effective.  

Reed is fine in the small WR role.  Okay explosion, and great speed.  

[VegasDan]

5 minutes ago, ThatJerkDave said:

Much like the Jordan Addison post I made in the other thread, let's look at the Jayden Reed RAS:

He is still a 66th percentile athlete by RAS.  The Packers also supposedly timed him even faster than these numbers show.  The part of the RAS that pulls him down is the height and weight categories.  And those are "better" as they get higher.  So in theory, a 7'4 400 pound WR would be a 10.0 on the size metric.  RAS is great, but it is just one measurement tool.  The size grade for WRs is not one that is as important as say, TE, or DL, where small is probably automatically worse.  I am not a fan of the small WRs, but even I know that they can be effective.  

Reed is fine in the small WR role.  Okay explosion, and great speed.  

It's a constant evolution. 20 years ago it was all about the big WRs. Then it seems CBs started getting bigger as well. Now the little WR is making a comeback the last decade. Generally quicker in their breaks than the taller CBs.  

[squire12]

8 minutes ago, ThatJerkDave said:

Much like the Jordan Addison post I made in the other thread, let's look at the Jayden Reed RAS:

He is still a 66th percentile athlete by RAS.  The Packers also supposedly timed him even faster than these numbers show.  The part of the RAS that pulls him down is the height and weight categories.  And those are "better" as they get higher.  So in theory, a 7'4 400 pound WR would be a 10.0 on the size metric.  RAS is great, but it is just one measurement tool.  The size grade for WRs is not one that is as important as say, TE, or DL, where small is probably automatically worse.  I am not a fan of the small WRs, but even I know that they can be effective.  

Reed is fine in the small WR role.  Okay explosion, and great speed.  

I think Reed RAS comes out to around 7.50 if you adjust his 40 time to what the GB scouts had him.  

40:  4.45 becomes 4.37

lets say that time is coming off the different components in some proportional amount

that takes his 

10 yard split from 1.56 to 1.53
20 yard split from 2.59 to 2.54