2024 NFL Draft Discussion

[Mr Bad Example]

3 hours ago, Scoremore said:

See it with QB's all the time.  Teams give away the farm to take them.  Most times they are not as highly rated as other players on the board.  But they need a QB so they definitely reach.  Too make matters worse not only do they not take the highest rated player they trade away multiple 1st rounders for the privilege. SF and Trey Lance comes to mind.  But there are many examples of this.  

Jared Goff and Carson Wentz were both examples of this - both were rated in the teens.

 

Washington traded the farm for RG IIII, but I believe his grade did have him at/near the top of the draft.

[vegas492]

1 hour ago, skibrett15 said:

You don't know.  It's a risk/reward scenario.  Of course you may not get the player.  And that will be seen as a bad thing in the moment.  But given the high level of uncertainty, it could be a good thing or a bad thing in the long run.   When that player doesn't work out, and your "2nd choice" does work out.  Or they might both not work out.  So you weight the value you give up by taking your 2nd guy against the possibility that your top guy will be there in the next round.  And you should be pretty certain that your 2nd guy will NOT be available in the next round, so you maximize your chances of getting both players rather than just your top guy.  

 

I don't think this is that revolutionary a concept and I think teams are already practicing it to some extent.  Look at what the seahawks did with Russell Wilson.  They had an extremely high grade on him, but they knew nobody else did.  So they waited till the 3rd round.  Most of the room was freaking out and wanted to take him in the 2nd.  Instead they took Bobby Wagner.

 

Not terribly invested in this debate....but I saw Seattle mentioned.  

I've long thought that their front office was usually laughably bad in the first round.

Like they were one of two teams that I could almost guarantee would make me laugh on draft night in the first round with who they would choose.  It was almost a given that their pick and the Patriots pick wouldn't make much sense at all and would typically bust.

There was a string of first round picks in Seattle that were just awful.   I want to say it started with Carpenter, a guard.  maybe Irvin was in there (old rookie).  A bad tackle, Ifedi, then a RB.  Maybe it was Penny.  Then another bad OLB, Collier maybe?

That's how much I laughed.  I remembered those guys as being pretty bad picks at the time.  Feeling like Irvin had a better career than I give him credit for, though.

I know that front office gets passes for finding Sherman and Wilson later in the draft, but man their first round picks could be head scratchers at time.

And....I think New England under BB could even have been worse.

Edited February 7 by vegas492

[craig]

2 hours ago, spilltray said:

Is it reaching or is it a difference of opinion, mostly on the weight of positional value? If the QB hits, was it still a reach?

Jordan Love doesn't seem to be a reach, in retrospect!  Most media scouts didn't have him as 1st round then.  And per reports from media guys who talk to scouts from different teams, the majority of those other scouts from around the league didn't have him as 1st round either.  But Gute did, and drafted accordingly.  Like you say, a wide variety of opinion, but Gute went with the internal scouting.  

Nobody complaining that it was a reach now.  

[Mazrimiv]

21 minutes ago, ChaRisMa said:

So tier your board carefully. It’s supposed to encompass all of your decision making on draft day ahead of time. It’s literally the plan of attack.

I am not 100% sure what this is intended to mean, but I expect Gute's board probaby does change as he makes his picks. Once LVN was selected last year, I think similar players in the higher tiers were probably pushed down the board. In general, I don't think "need" is totally excluded from the process of setting the draft board, so when the need changes, the board does too. 

As an extreme example, I doubt Gute will have players like QB's Williams and Maye in his top tiers for this draft.  Mostly because he won't bother putting much time into scouting them.  In a different universe where GB went 1-15 and Love was terrible, I assume one of them would be at the top of his board.

[vegas492]

2 minutes ago, craig said:

Jordan Love doesn't seem to be a reach, in retrospect!  Most media scouts didn't have him as 1st round then.  And per reports from media guys who talk to scouts from different teams, the majority of those other scouts from around the league didn't have him as 1st round either.  But Gute did, and drafted accordingly.  Like you say, a wide variety of opinion, but Gute went with the internal scouting.  

Nobody complaining that it was a reach now.  

If I recall, there was a lot of division regarding Love.  Some thought the Dolphins were so high on him that they would bypass Tua for him...and they were set to do just that until the owner stepped in.

Others simply didn't see a first round QB.  Like the spread of where he could go was kind of crazy.

[Mazrimiv]

Just now, vegas492 said:

If I recall, there was a lot of division regarding Love.  Some thought the Dolphins were so high on him that they would bypass Tua for him...and they were set to do just that until the owner stepped in.

Others simply didn't see a first round QB.  Like the spread of where he could go was kind of crazy.

I just remember my immediate reaction to the Love pick was #FiReGuTe

[vegas492]

Just now, Mazrimiv said:

I just remember my immediate reaction to the Love pick was #FiReGuTe

I didn't like it either.  But I was good with it because of how Gute and MLF reacted after using that pick.  They were elated.  And that's what I want.  I want to know we are selecting the guys that we really coveted.  

Course, if I recall, they looked the same way when they took Dillon and Deguara, too.

So maybe #FiReGuTe should be a thing again!

[Mazrimiv]

Just now, vegas492 said:

I didn't like it either.  But I was good with it because of how Gute and MLF reacted after using that pick.  They were elated.  And that's what I want.  I want to know we are selecting the guys that we really coveted.  

Course, if I recall, they looked the same way when they took Dillon and Deguara, too.

So maybe #FiReGuTe should be a thing again!

Not to have this devolve into another Rodgers debate, but I've always thought the reactions of Gute and MLF after the Love pick played a part in triggering the meltdown between Rodgers and the FO.

[craig]

2 hours ago, skibrett15 said:

having a sense of a consensus board helps you to make educated guesses as to the perceived value of a player.

.... if you dismiss the general value of a player at the expense of only considering what YOU think of the player, you are much more likely to select a good player at a spot where you could have gotten that player later in addition to your 2nd choice now.

...This is why you see good teams trading down a lot.  They accept the fact that there are slots that are "too early" even for their top ranked player.

Jayden Reed is an interesting case study, perhaps reflecting both your view and squire's. 

1. Squire's view:  I don't think any "consensus board" or media anticipations envisioned Reed as a 2nd-round guy or a top-50 pick.  So, using pick-50 on Reed seems like it was a "reach", perhaps a pretty big one, relative to an educated guess of the consensus board.  But Gute went with his own board and spent the pick on Reed.  Glad he did.
2. Ski's view:  I'm not sure who else the Packers might have considered at pick 45.  But, I'm guessing Reed might have perhaps already been their preferred guy?  They made an educated guess and traded down to 48, adding Dontaviyon Wicks pick in the process.  Then at 48, again Reed might have been their top guy, but they again made an educated guess about other boards and traded down again, adding Brooks in the process.  So it seems they were very conscious of other teams' probable valuation, and traded down accordingly.  Glad they did!
3. I kinda wish I knew the inside discussion at those points.  Was Reed actually their guy already at 45?  Or was he one of a handful of same-tier guys, so they knew one of the guys would still be there at 48?  Same at 48?  If so, I wish I knew who the other guys they were looking at.  Did any of those same-tier guys get picked between 45 and 50, and kinda force them to choose Reed, when perhaps he'd not have been their selection at 45?  Who would ever know!  At 50, did they perhaps consider another trade down, but didn't get a safe offer?  Or weren't comfortable that he'd last longer?  Who knows!
4. Also curious how Packers internally had LaPorta, Mayer, and Musgrave etc. ranked at TE.  Did they ever consider trading up to get LaPorta or Mayer?  If one of those guys had lasted to late 30's, might they have done so?  Once they both were gone at 34-35, were they comfortable all the time about Musgrave at 42?  Or were there voices in the room lobbying to try to trade up and make sure they got Musgrave?  Were there voices in the room who actually likes one of the next guys taken, Schoonmaker, Strange, or 3rd rounders washington or Latu who came in after Kraft?  Would be so fun to know the internal rankings and discussions!

[craig]

Trade downs seem to sometimes be small ones with modest prices.  Packers gave 4th rounder to move up 4 spots for Love.  (Brilliant!). They gave 4th rounder to move up 7 spots for Amari Rodgers (not brilliant!). Gave a lot to move up from 30 to 21 for Savage.  (not brilliant).  Infamous Kevin King was 4 spots down, for an extra 4th (Vince Biegel, not brilliant!  Interestingly enough, the team that traded up didn't take Watt either, they took TE Njoku.  I wonder if their boards regret missing on Watt the way ours does?). 

Just thinking that for trading down a few spots, you know exactly which guys are on the board, and between understanding the needs of other teams and knowing your own groups of comparably-graded prospects, if you move by 2 or 3 or 4, you can be certain your group won't be completely picked clean by your pick.  

[ChaRisMa]

2 hours ago, Mazrimiv said:

I am not 100% sure what this is intended to mean, but I expect Gute's board probaby does change as he makes his picks. Once LVN was selected last year, I think similar players in the higher tiers were probably pushed down the board. In general, I don't think "need" is totally excluded from the process of setting the draft board, so when the need changes, the board does too. 

As an extreme example, I doubt Gute will have players like QB's Williams and Maye in his top tiers for this draft.  Mostly because he won't bother putting much time into scouting them.  In a different universe where GB went 1-15 and Love was terrible, I assume one of them would be at the top of his board.

Precisely correct.

Obviously, once you add the knowledge of what your first pick was, you can adjust your board for your second choice, etc. But the first player you draft should be the top player on your draft board. Which would be awesome as a GM to look at my staff and there not be a debate while OTC because it’s an argument that’s already been had.

Edited February 7 by ChaRisMa

[ThatJerkDave]

9 hours ago, vegas492 said:

I didn't like it either.  But I was good with it because of how Gute and MLF reacted after using that pick.  They were elated.  And that's what I want.  I want to know we are selecting the guys that we really coveted.  

Course, if I recall, they looked the same way when they took Dillon and Deguara, too.

So maybe #FiReGuTe should be a thing again!

I just thought that it was a year too early.  Not that I had my eye on any future QBs after that, or any kind of contingency. Or that I really had any knock against Love.  Just that I thought that the time to move on from Rodgers didn't really take advantage of the rookie's cheap years.  And I was kind of right.  Assuming everything else plays out similarly, we would still be looking for a QB now, or possibly be trying to pass the reins over to Will Levis or Sam Howell.

[Refugee]

8 minutes ago, ThatJerkDave said:

I just thought that it was a year too early.  Not that I had my eye on any future QBs after that, or any kind of contingency. Or that I really had any knock against Love.  Just that I thought that the time to move on from Rodgers didn't really take advantage of the rookie's cheap years.  And I was kind of right.  Assuming everything else plays out similarly, we would still be looking for a QB now, or possibly be trying to pass the reins over to Will Levis or Sam Howell.

Although I agree the timeline wasn’t ideal but in hindsight, the next two years were not good for QBs and they probably had some foresight in their scouting to know as much. Obviously a guy like Lawrence had huge potential but we weren’t touching that pick, even Mac Jones would have been out of our reach. Brock Purdy ended up being one of the only solid picks in our (and every team for 7 rounds) range. Sucks that he went to one of our biggest competitors but that’s the breaks.

I think we had to grab the guy we did anticipating the fact that he was the best ball of clay we would have to develop for the foreseeable future and we didn’t know what kind of production and commitment we’d get from 12. That was the 2020 season so development took more time than usual and AR goes back to back MVP seasons. If Gute truly had the huge balls everyone says he does, he would have pulled the trigger a year early and got that deal from Denver but that’s not realistic for anyone who would like to keep their jobs. Once Rodgers faltered and Love looked ready, Gute made the bold move and we hope to have another great one under center. We didn’t max out his rookie deal but under the circumstances coming out with a hat trick of great QBs is nothing short of amazing. All Love has to do now is keep ascending to the HOF and win a Super Bowl. 

[ThatJerkDave]

Know the worst part about watching Bucky Irving highlights is trying to wrap your head around the 435343434 different uniforms that Oregon wears.  

[MaximusGluteus]

8 hours ago, ThatJerkDave said:

Know the worst part about watching Bucky Irving highlights is trying to wrap your head around the 435343434 different uniforms that Oregon wears.  

I just want to know how tall that dude actually is.  He's listed at 5'10" but he looks like he's closer to 4'10".