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2024 NFL Draft Discussion

MacReady

By MacReady
in Green Bay Packers

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incognito_man

incognito_man

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7 minutes ago, MacReady said:

If the Lions had drafted Burrow the year before and Sewell after, they’d have won a Super Bowl, too.

Burrow does not need a WR to win a Super Bowl. He does need an OT.

Burrow does not need an OT to win SB. He does need a WR.

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incognito_man

incognito_man

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10 minutes ago, MacReady said:

I’ve still yet to see the evidence where you need an elite WR to win a Super Bowl. In fact, more teams have won the Super Bowl in the past 20 years without an elite WR than with.

And the ones that have recently, only the Buccaneers are the team I can think of that drafted that elite WR in the top half of the draft.

Tyree Hill had 3rd highest cap hit in 2020 when chiefs won SB.

Eagles used pick 18 to get AJ Brown and are an elite SB team.

You are just fighting reality for the sake of holding onto an outdated opinion. Set your ego aside on WRs. It's time to be loyal to the truth and not to previously held opinion (even if it used to be right).

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MacReady

MacReady

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11 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

Tyree Hill had 3rd highest cap hit in 2020 when chiefs won SB.

Eagles used pick 18 to get AJ Brown and are an elite SB team.

You are just fighting reality for the sake of holding onto an outdated opinion. Set your ego aside on WRs. It's time to be loyal to the truth and not to previously held opinion (even if it used to be right).

Tyreek Hill was a 5th round draft pick.

I have NEVER said you shouldn't pay a WR market value.

This is purely a draft capital conversation.

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incognito_man

incognito_man

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1 minute ago, MacReady said:

@incognito_man,

One team has used a top 19 draft pick on a WR who won a Super Bowl with the team since 2014. How far back should I go?

You should expand it past winning a SB, for starters, to get a meaningful dataset. You also need to expand it from the draft to paying market value for a top WR.

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MacReady

MacReady

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8 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

You should expand it past winning a SB, for starters, to get a meaningful dataset. You also need to expand it from the draft to paying market value for a top WR.

No, I don't. The discussion is not market value, it's draft capital and it's Super Bowls.

Losers always complain about their best...

Very clearly it looks like the best way to build a Super Bowl winner is to get bargain rentals or deals in free agency and draft receivers in rounds 2 and 3.

Chiefs 2022 - 54th overall (Moore), 3rd and 6th (Toney), 20 million dollars on 2 free agent receivers. (JJSS free agency bargain)
-They just traded an elite WR for a first round pick. They used that first round pick on a CB or EDGE (can't remember which).

Rams 2021 - Free agency bargain(OBJ), 69th overall (Cooper Kupp), 57th overall (Van Jefferson)

Buccaneers 2020 - Free agency bargain (Brown), Mike Evans 7th overall, 6th round Scotty Miller, 3rd round Chris Godwin

Chiefs 2019 - Mecole Hardman 2nd round pick, Tyreek Hill 5th round pick, Robinson 4th round pick, Watkins free agency bargain.

Patriots 2018 - An entire WR corps made up of street free agent additions and an undrafted rookie who played his whole career there.

Eagles 2017 - Agholor 20th overall, 1 year free agent bargain Jeffery, Torey Smith 3 year free agent bargain.

Patriots 2016 - Same as 2018, but add Ammendola and Floyd, both also free agent additions. Not a single pick used on their WR corps.

Broncos 2015 - Latimer 2nd round, Sanders free agent, D. Thomas 22nd overall.

Patriots 2014 - Same again. virtually zero draft capital.

Seahawks 2013 - Undrafted Baldwin, 25th overall pick used to acquire Percy Harvin, undrafted Kearse, 2nd round Tate.

Ravens 2012 - 2nd round Smith, 3rd round Jones, free agent addition Boldin.

Giants 2011 - Undrafted Cruz, 29th overall Nicks, 3rd round Manningham.

Packers 2010 - You know the drill.

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incognito_man

incognito_man

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1 minute ago, MacReady said:

No I don't. The discussion is not market value, it's draft capital and it's Super Bowls

You do if you want anyone to take you more seriously than the fools in NFL Gen trying to defend the 1st round RB and ILB picks. 

It's wholly illogical to say that WRs are simultaneously worth their market deals (which are the 3rd most valuable) while saying they're not the 3rd most valuable draftable position. Literally totally nonsensical.

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MacReady

MacReady

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11 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

The draft is THE way to avoid having to pay market deals...

I don't think receivers are all that important. I think if Moneyball ever came to the NFL, what teams would conclude would be that:

1. the draft in the NFL is more valuable than any other sport.
2. First round picks must be used on anchor positions (QB, EDGE, OT, DL).
3. The higher the first round pick, the more you stick to that.
4. The lower the first round pick, the less you stick to that.
5. Given the high number of elite receivers compared to the low number of elite corners, cornerback is a position that goes in the first round before WR if remotely close.
6. A QB should at no point be given a market setting deal given the expected value of trading that QB and the value of those picks.
7. Veteran average receivers on a good team are worth more than elite young receivers.

You get your receivers in the second and third round and take a lot of shots at WR in the later rounds to keep that corps fresh, you add veteran receivers to get them there.

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MacReady

MacReady

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11 minutes ago, Chili said:

Is there seriously a player named Kool-aid? 🤢

If his parents are that dumb then chances are he is dumb too. Undraftable.

Do you think William Perry's parents named him Fridge?

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incognito_man

incognito_man

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2 minutes ago, MacReady said:

I don't think receivers are all that important. I think if Moneyball ever came to the NFL, what teams would conclude would be that:

1. the draft in the NFL is more valuable than any other sport.
2. First round picks must be used on anchor positions (QB, EDGE, OT, DL).
3. The higher the first round pick, the more you stick to that.
4. The lower the first round pick, the less you stick to that.
5. Given the high number of elite receivers compared to the low number of elite corners, cornerback is a position that goes in the first round before WR if remotely close.
6. A QB should at no point be given a market setting deal given the expected value of trading that QB and the value of those picks.
7. Veteran average receivers on a good team are worth more than elite young receivers.

You get your receivers in the second and third round and take a lot of shots at WR in the later rounds to keep that corps fresh, you add veteran receivers to get them there.

WRa deserve the 3rd highest value multiplier. It is important that teams then grade the WR class correctly in order to see the correct surplus value a given prospect has relative to a replacement later in the draft. That will vary by class. 

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