Who will win the NFC North in 2023?

[Dr A W Niloc]

On 7/6/2023 at 10:31 AM, Nnivolcm said:

The 2022 Vikings were a near statistical impossibility.

      Yes, but perhaps not in the way people think.

      The narrative is that the Vikings were a "lucky" 12-0 as favorites in win-loss terms but fans who gave the points don't considering themselves fortunate.  The schedule was a cakewalk.  Miami without Tua was the best  team they beat.  Their division included the two worst teams in football at the time and the other one was in meltdown.  The amazing thing isn't that they won 11 1-score games;  the astounding thing is that the Vikes underperformed enough to be in 11 1-score games.  In a new year with improved coaching a repeat of that calamity seems unlikely.

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There's no chance they repeat their success last season even if they didn't have to jettison so much of the top end of their roster in salary cap moves.

      Because the preseason Packers and Vikings drifted while Chicago and Detroit improved dramatically, all four NFC-North teams range between 11th and 21st, inclusively.  The difference will be in the skill positions, where Minnesota has the division's best passer and WR.  (N.B.:  An injury to either of these studs would be devastating.)

      I agree wholeheartedly with this:

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I don't think the Lions almost making the playoffs is why people see them as contenders. I think it has more to do with the 8-2 record to finish the year, keeping their OC who was the most sought HC candidate until he decided to stay in Detroit, a young roster projected to continue to progress who has shown they will run though walls for MCDC, returning a top offense, and revamping a defense who played well down the stretch.

 

[ThatJerkDave]

On 7/7/2023 at 2:35 PM, BeaReylo said:

There really isn't any one team that stands out as a clear cut powerhouse.  At best maybe one or two look to be pretty good teams but not great or outstanding 

I give every team in it a 25% chance right now.

Not a bad take.  I think the most surprising outcome would be Bears first, Vikings last;  but you could re-arrange the standings in about any order and it is probably not that far fetched, at least going by what we know right now.  

[CP3MVP]

On 7/6/2023 at 10:54 AM, StatKing said:

If the Lions don't win it this year Dan Campbell should be fired.

This is the first year they are gonna be expected to be good which is fascinating lol

[StatKing]

On 7/9/2023 at 4:31 PM, CP3MVP said:

This is the first year they are gonna be expected to be good which is fascinating lol

Minnesota and Detroit are the only two teams who should be contending for the division late in the season. The Packers are a complete wild card and the Bears are an absolute dumpster fire.

[viking]

On 7/8/2023 at 1:39 AM, Dr A W Niloc said:

      Yes, but perhaps not in the way people think.

      The narrative is that the Vikings were a "lucky" 12-0 as favorites in win-loss terms but fans who gave the points don't considering themselves fortunate.  The schedule was a cakewalk.  Miami without Tua was the best  team they beat.

 

The Bills?

[ThatJerkDave]

On 7/12/2023 at 2:40 PM, viking said:

The Bills?

Not as good as the Dolphins.  He didn't stutter.

 

🤣

[viking]

23 hours ago, ThatJerkDave said:

Not as good as the Dolphins.  He didn't stutter.

 

🤣

It's cool, both those guys have 0 idea of the state of the Vikings and I would bet didn't watch any of our games last year either.

 

One guy saying we "jettisoned our top talent" - The Vikings cut some old, slow players who were way beyond their prime. Nobody is worried about losing some overpaid 30 year old defenders who run 4.8

[Nnivolcm]

16 minutes ago, viking said:

One guy saying we "jettisoned our top talent" - The Vikings cut some old, slow players who were way beyond their prime. Nobody is worried about losing some overpaid 30 year old defenders who run 4.8

Keep sipping the kool aid if you think Dalvin Cook, Garrett Bradbury, and Adam Thielen are "all overpaid 30 year old defenders who run 4.8"

They've already lost Za'darius Smith and are likely to lose Danielle Hunter before the season starts. Sorry if I don't think the half a sack Marcus Davenport got in 2022 is a good omen for their 2023 pass rush. 

Kendricks and Peterson might be on the wrong side of 30, but they were still some of the best defenders for the Vikings last year, and losing them will hurt. 

[viking]

42 minutes ago, Nnivolcm said:

Keep sipping the kool aid if you think Dalvin Cook, Garrett Bradbury, and Adam Thielen are "all overpaid 30 year old defenders who run 4.8"

They've already lost Za'darius Smith and are likely to lose Danielle Hunter before the season starts. Sorry if I don't think the half a sack Marcus Davenport got in 2022 is a good omen for their 2023 pass rush. 

Kendricks and Peterson might be on the wrong side of 30, but they were still some of the best defenders for the Vikings last year, and losing them will hurt. 

Garrett Bradbury is on the team? Thielen was invisible apart from being schemed up in the redzone - this production will be transferred to TJ Hockenson & Jefferson. Dalvin Cook fully lost a step, wasn't explosive and was terrible at producing yards over expected. The Vikings RB room won't drop off in production 

Half a sack Davenport (top 5 in the league in pressures) is going to be better than half a sack in the 2nd half of the season Za'darius Smith....

Kendricks looked lost all season and slow & PP was good but is declining - Nobody is worried about losing a 33 year old corner.

 

Cook, Theilen, Kendricks, Peterson, Z Smith all past their physical peaks, productive peaks and way overpaid for their production. Moving on from all of these players is beneficial for the Vikings in the short & long term.

 

Thank you for continuing to prove you have no idea about the Vikings and the current situation of the Vikings roster.

[Nnivolcm]

24 minutes ago, viking said:

Garrett Bradbury is on the team? Thielen was invisible apart from being schemed up in the redzone - this production will be transferred to TJ Hockenson & Jefferson. Dalvin Cook fully lost a step, wasn't explosive and was terrible at producing yards over expected. The Vikings RB room won't drop off in production 

Half a sack Davenport (top 5 in the league in pressures) is going to be better than half a sack in the 2nd half of the season Za'darius Smith....

Kendricks looked lost all season and slow & PP was good but is declining - Nobody is worried about losing a 33 year old corner.

 

Cook, Theilen, Kendricks, Peterson, Z Smith all past their physical peaks, productive peaks and way overpaid for their production. Moving on from all of these players is beneficial for the Vikings in the short & long term.

 

Thank you for continuing to prove you have no idea about the Vikings and the current situation of the Vikings roster.

[viking]

16 minutes ago, Nnivolcm said:

High quality post bud thank you.

[ThatJerkDave]

2 hours ago, viking said:

It's cool, both those guys have 0 idea of the state of the Vikings and I would bet didn't watch any of our games last year either.

 

One guy saying we "jettisoned our top talent" - The Vikings cut some old, slow players who were way beyond their prime. Nobody is worried about losing some overpaid 30 year old defenders who run 4.8

I'm not that sold on the Vikings, tbh.  But I think they are probably going to still be a good team.  I think too many people are buying the Lions hype.  So the flaws of every team in this division are held under a microscope, and the Lions are being heralded as some kind of juggernaut.  

[Spartacus]

57 minutes ago, viking said:

Half a sack Davenport (top 5 in the league in pressures) is going to be better than half a sack in the 2nd half of the season Za'darius Smith....

Kendricks looked lost all season and slow & PP was good but is declining - Nobody is worried about losing a 33 year old corner.

I actually agree with your first portion regarding the offense. I think Mattison steps right into that role without losing a step. Just having Jefferson and Hock is enough for a decent offense but I still think there is talent across that group. The offensive line is maybe average to above average but I think it still light and if any injuries occur could quickly turn into a dumpster fire. 

My problem is I don't see any improvement on defense in fact wouldn't be surprised if they were somehow worse. Say what you want about Z the second half of the year he was probably the best defensive player in the first half of the year. Outside of Hunter where is the talent? Frankly even Hunter looks like he took a step back with the stacking injuries. Defensive line looks pretty stout IMO but no real stars there. 

You have a whole bunch of guys with little to no experience and the ones that do haven' really shown much of anything in the secondary. Blackmon, Evans, Booth have a combined 3 GS and no interceptions. None have shown a consistent ability to even be above average CBs at the NFL level. At safety you have an old Harrison Smith & Bynum/Cine who haven't shown anything great really. That secondary is at best a question mark and at worse atrocious. 

The LBs are led by Asamoah who should be at least decent but is he a star? You replaced one old breaking down LB with another going from Kendricks to Hicks and you replaced Smith with Davenport. I don't really see the upgrade there in fact wouldn't be shocked if he is worse then Z but I don't mind that replacement. 

[viking]

22 minutes ago, ThatJerkDave said:

I'm not that sold on the Vikings, tbh.  But I think they are probably going to still be a good team.  I think too many people are buying the Lions hype.  So the flaws of every team in this division are held under a microscope, and the Lions are being heralded as some kind of juggernaut.  

I see the Vikings have a similar ranking scoring offense around the 6th-10th and I expect the defense to be greatly improved from our 2022 30th ranked scoring defense - please note greatly improved doesn't mean that I think the defense will be good, I expect our defense to be in the 16th-24th in scoring

It can't be understated how big of an upgrade going from Ed Donatel to Brian Flores will be. I've never seen such a predictable, slow and inflexible defense back 7 as last year.

This off-season Kwesi has improved the speed, man coverage ability and versatility in coverage of our back 7 defenders. Combining this with better coaching & play calling I can't see the unit being even equal to last years **** show.

 

I'm looking forward to the 2023 season and I see the Vikings as favourites right now. I have no faith in Dan Campbell as a HC or Goff as QB, I have no faith in Justin fields taking the next step as a QB (still truly atrocious as a passer) and for the Packers Jordan Love has too much on his plate right now to win a division with how poor/inexperienced the Packers receiving group is right now.

[viking]

14 minutes ago, Spartacus said:

I actually agree with your first portion regarding the offense. I think Mattison steps right into that role without losing a step. Just having Jefferson and Hock is enough for a decent offense but I still think there is talent across that group. The offensive line is maybe average to above average but I think it still light and if any injuries occur could quickly turn into a dumpster fire. 

My problem is I don't see any improvement on defense in fact wouldn't be surprised if they were somehow worse. Say what you want about Z the second half of the year he was probably the best defensive player in the first half of the year. Outside of Hunter where is the talent? Frankly even Hunter looks like he took a step back with the stacking injuries. Defensive line looks pretty stout IMO but no real stars there. 

You have a whole bunch of guys with little to no experience and the ones that do haven' really shown much of anything in the secondary. Blackmon, Evans, Booth have a combined 3 GS and no interceptions. None have shown a consistent ability to even be above average CBs at the NFL level. At safety you have an old Harrison Smith & Bynum/Cine who haven't shown anything great really. That secondary is at best a question mark and at worse atrocious. 

The LBs are led by Asamoah who should be at least decent but is he a star? You replaced one old breaking down LB with another going from Kendricks to Hicks and you replaced Smith with Davenport. I don't really see the upgrade there in fact wouldn't be shocked if he is worse then Z but I don't mind that replacement. 

I'll give it a push between Z Smith and Davenport going into the next year. Smith was hampered by injuries and was invisible in the 2nd half. Not a great trend for a soon to be 31 year old edge rusher. I think our pass rushing talent is the same as last year however I'm hopeful that our ability to pressure the QB will be improved. Flores didn't have a duo anywhere near Davenport & Hunter in Miami and still got to the QB.

Speed, versatility & scheme fit has been greatly improved on the back end. Combined with a gigantic leap in the quality of our DC I see the Vikings defense in the 16-24th range next year.