squire12 Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 3 minutes ago, ReasonablySober said: I'd like to see a study on it, TBH. maybe you should try google!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ReasonablySober Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 1 minute ago, squire12 said: can you share this list that you posted? thanks Here's what I posted on the 16th: Quote Am I the only one who doesn't consider OT a pressing need? Tom's been good at OT. He looks like someone you pencil in. Walker has been less good, but I don't think he's been bad either. As a first time starter I think he's held up relatively well. Obviously he's got great size and he's still young. I don't consider myself an expert on offensive line play by any means, but let's put him up against some other 1st and 2nd year starters: Walker: 60.3 PFF grade Paris Johnson (#6 overall): 52.5 Darnell Wright (#10 overall): 63.1 Broderick Jones (#14 overall): 61.6 Anton Harrison (#27 overall): 54.8 Matthew Bergeron (#38 overall): 57.2 Ikem Ekwonu (#6 overall): 64.1 Evan Neal (#7 overall): 39.8 Charles Cross (#9 overall): 63.4 Trevor Penning (#19 overall): 53.5 That's every 1st and 2nd year offensive tackle taken in 1st or 2nd round the last two drafts. Given the investment in draft capital, Rasheed Walker compares pretty nicely to literally all of them, right? I'm not opposed to taking an offensive tackle next spring. I am opposed to taking one at #6. I think the Packers would be better off taking a generational type prospect in Bowers, a new QB, or trading up for Harrison Jr. if possible. Have at it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ReasonablySober Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 *Nov 16th. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
squire12 Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 1 minute ago, ReasonablySober said: Here's what I posted on the 16th: Have at it. I am not sure using a 2 year sample is going to get you much leverage in the discussion. Small sample size from a playing time perspective for some of them Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ReasonablySober Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 I haven't looked at what anyone else on that list has done, but FWIW Walker's grade has gone from 60.6 to 66.0 ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
squire12 Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 Going to drop this here to see if someone gets enlightened Quote Below, we will look at the first-round hit rates for each position during the five-year-span from 2013-2017: Before diving into the table, it is important to note that these are players from 2013-17 and may not fully represent the current state of the NFL but is still an effective group to look at since these players have all completed their rookie contracts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zycho32 Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 1 minute ago, ReasonablySober said: Here's what I posted on the 16th: Have at it. I'd only dispute labeling Bowers as a 'generational-type prospect'... but that's largely because I think Bowers' hype comes from the 'G' on his helmet. Does he sniff the top-15 if he plays for a mid-major college instead? As for OT, while Walker could indeed improve over the course of next off-season, I don't think he's necessarily earned "OFF-LIMITS" status as far as potentially upgrading positions go. But then, this is largely contingent on who's available and how much they actually stand out, so Walker could still be replaced by a day 2 pick or even be forced to compete with someone from day 3. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ReasonablySober Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 1 minute ago, Zycho32 said: I'd only dispute labeling Bowers as a 'generational-type prospect'... but that's largely because I think Bowers' hype comes from the 'G' on his helmet. Does he sniff the top-15 if he plays for a mid-major college instead? As for OT, while Walker could indeed improve over the course of next off-season, I don't think he's necessarily earned "OFF-LIMITS" status as far as potentially upgrading positions go. But then, this is largely contingent on who's available and how much they actually stand out, so Walker could still be replaced by a day 2 pick or even be forced to compete with someone from day 3. Disagree about Bowers. Even with the Packers hits on TE this year I'd still love to bring him in. But agree with Walker. I don't think he's someone you lock in either. But unless I absolutely loved an OT and there's something going on with Walker we don't know about, I'd be fine looking to add to the room in the 2nd and 3rd round. I'm very largely BPA. I'm just less high on the top OT in this class, and feel better about Williams, Daniels, MHJ, Bowers, and a few WR. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
squire12 Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 seems like OT doesn't have that bad of a track record for bust rate. Now 25 years is a bit different than 2. Maybe someone that is good with math or stats can clarify @incognito_man Quote Bust rates among first-round picks, 25-year sample Position Drafted Busts Bust rate RB 96 45 46.9% QB 57 23 40.4% DL 170 60 35.3% WR 99 30 30.3% CB 91 24 26.4% G 32 7 21.9% LB 87 19 21.8% TE 28 6 21.4% OT 84 16 19.0% S 35 5 14.3% C 12 1 8.3% 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ReasonablySober Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 (edited) 7 minutes ago, squire12 said: seems like OT doesn't have that bad of a track record for bust rate. Now 25 years is a bit different than 2. Maybe someone that is good with math or stats can clarify @incognito_man Maybe someone should take into account the vast differences in offenses over the last two, six, ten, and twenty five years? The days of the drop back passer that needs over three seconds are gone. The best offenses get the ball out in under that. You don't need a brick wall on the left side that keeps a QB clean for five seconds. The position simply isn't as valuable as the Blindside days. Edited December 18, 2023 by ReasonablySober Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packerraymond Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 21 minutes ago, squire12 said: is the bust rate on OT much different than other positions? like WR, QB, etc? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norm Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 1 minute ago, Packerraymond said: I would have never guessed DB to be the top two Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leader Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 4 minutes ago, Packerraymond said: Interesting chart. Good post. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ReasonablySober Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 Am I allowed to ask for context? What years that chart makes up? What constitutes a miss and what makes up a hit? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
squire12 Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 3 minutes ago, ReasonablySober said: Am I allowed to ask for context? What years that chart makes up? What constitutes a miss and what makes up a hit? try googling this......... Quote nfl first round draft pick success rate Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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