Jared Goff's Future

[Lions017]

I think at this point he is playing so well that you probably have to extend him. Otherwise what do we do - blow up multiple draft classes to try to move up and draft a guy? 

Ideally we try to get him on a shorter (like 3-4 year) deal at maybe a higher AAV, like what the Giants did with Daniel Jones. 

The only way he doesn't stick around is probably if he completely falls apart - say he has a really bad stretch this season or we have a playoff game and he throws a bunch of picks and costs us the game or something. 

He's not an elite talent, but he has shown that if he is in a good system with a solid team, he can play really well.

And really, who else is there? 

I could see him taking a slight discount. Not a big one, but Goff has the unique perspective of having already been in a place where he got the mega deal with the Rams and then struggled when the team couldn't afford to put more pieces around him. 

Edited October 13, 2023 by Lions017

[Sllim Pickens]

Time to revisit this question after the season has officially ended.  Goff ended up taking us further than we have gone in all but one season, and if a few balls he put on the money are not dropped, we would be in the Super Bowl.  He still drives me nuts with how he throws some ducks and can't throw a great deep ball. I feel like we waste some of Jamo because of that.  But in general he is accurate and efficient and leads this team perfectly.  The fans have grown to love him with Jared Goff chants at every sporting event and even at the game in SF.  

Over the past two seasons, Goff is #2 in passing yards behind only Mahomes. He was leading all QBs in the playoffs with a 74% completion % and would still be leading if not for the drops.  I think we have to pay him now, the question is just how much money and for how long.  I hope he takes the Tom Brady approach and realizes he needs teammates to look good so he takes a discount.  Keeping his OL solid and adding to the defense will work wonders in getting to the next step.  So what do you guys think his extension looks like whenever it happens? 

[Just Want A Title]

19 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

Time to revisit this question after the season has officially ended.  Goff ended up taking us further than we have gone in all but one season, and if a few balls he put on the money are not dropped, we would be in the Super Bowl.  He still drives me nuts with how he throws some ducks and can't throw a great deep ball. I feel like we waste some of Jamo because of that.  But in general he is accurate and efficient and leads this team perfectly.  The fans have grown to love him with Jared Goff chants at every sporting event and even at the game in SF.  

Over the past two seasons, Goff is #2 in passing yards behind only Mahomes. He was leading all QBs in the playoffs with a 74% completion % and would still be leading if not for the drops.  I think we have to pay him now, the question is just how much money and for how long.  I hope he takes the Tom Brady approach and realizes he needs teammates to look good so he takes a discount.  Keeping his OL solid and adding to the defense will work wonders in getting to the next step.  So what do you guys think his extension looks like whenever it happens? 

I mentioned this in a different thread but I will repeat it here.  The Lions have a a good kind of problem:  They have a starting QB who is playing like a top-5 QB and a very physically talented back-up in Hendon Hooker who would have been a a first-round pick if not for his knee injury.  I don't think Lions planned on Jared Goff playing at this level.  I think they planned on having Hendon Hooker move into the starting role sometime on his rookie deal while ARSB, Penei Sewell, and Hutch moved into their 2nd contracts.  

It isn't a coincidence that our "rebuild" is happening faster than anyone thought it would happen.  Jared Goff's top-shelf performances have moved things ahead.  He has quietly done a lot of great work in the locker room, on-the-field and off-the-field.  I think he can get a Super Bowl win with Jared Goff if we can field a solid defense.  Jared Goff's extension might be the most critical decision that Brad Holmes has had to make to this point in his tenure.

[Karnage84]

4 years x $200M but they spread it out over 5-6 years (maybe include a void year or something). 

Goff gets slagged so much no matter what it is that he does. 

• He's an average QB: Top 10 in stats across the board
• You can't win with Goff: He was 2 drops away from being in the Super Bowl
• We have Hendon Hooker, we don't need him: Hooker is nearly as old as Goff, coming off of an injury and hasn't played a down in the NFL. We have a window of opportunity. You don't go off of a proven commodity that's performing for an unknown. 

The cap is going to increase while we have veteran players that are going to come off of the books (Decker, Ragnow, Tracy Walker, etc.). Brad Holmes has done a great job with drafting. I suspect he'll continue that. We'll spend the money where we should and find replacement players at a lower cost where needed. 

[diehardlionfan]

2 hours ago, Karnage84 said:

4 years x $200M but they spread it out over 5-6 years (maybe include a void year or something). 

Goff gets slagged so much no matter what it is that he does. 

• He's an average QB: Top 10 in stats across the board
• You can't win with Goff: He was 2 drops away from being in the Super Bowl
• We have Hendon Hooker, we don't need him: Hooker is nearly as old as Goff, coming off of an injury and hasn't played a down in the NFL. We have a window of opportunity. You don't go off of a proven commodity that's performing for an unknown. 

The cap is going to increase while we have veteran players that are going to come off of the books (Decker, Ragnow, Tracy Walker, etc.). Brad Holmes has done a great job with drafting. I suspect he'll continue that. We'll spend the money where we should and find replacement players at a lower cost where needed. 

I’ve been speculating. 🤠

I think Goffs contract comes in with a 40-44 million cap hit.

[Sllim Pickens]

14 minutes ago, diehardlionfan said:

I’ve been speculating. 🤠

I think Goffs contract comes in with a 40-44 million cap hit.

I hope they can get it done in that range.  Would be nice if they can move some of it to this coming year when we have some extra space and then a void year down the line.  A 5 year $200M deal with like 140M guaranteed would be ideal.  but my guess is it will be closer to a four year 180-190 type deal with similar amounts guaranteed.  The first offer would be great for being a team guy.  Mahomes structured his deal so they can pay others and thats what kept Brady in the Super Bowl so often.  

[Karnage84]

8 minutes ago, diehardlionfan said:

I’ve been speculating. 🤠

I think Goffs contract comes in with a 40-44 million cap hit.

I laid one out in my off-season projection. 

Goff is arguably 'underpaid' this year (production vs other QB's), so jumping his cap hit in 2024 isn't a huge deal. 

He's likely never going to see the end of the contract. 

This is something that I've played around with on Over The Cap's contract constructor.

• $38M - 2024
• $42M - 2025
• $46M - 2026
• $48M - 2027 >>> Potential Out - June 1st cut = $12M Dead Cap; $36M Cash Saved
• $58M - 2028

Details:

• $60M Signing Bonus
• $150M Guaranteed
• $5M Roster Bonuses per year

 

 

[idoubtit]

There are not really that many QB contracts getting done this off-season that we can use as a measure for Goff. Cousins and Mayfield are the only ones that I can think of that might be helpful and are sure things. Love, Lawrence, and Tua could be done this off-season too.

[Just Want A Title]

4 hours ago, Karnage84 said:

4 years x $200M but they spread it out over 5-6 years (maybe include a void year or something). 

Goff gets slagged so much no matter what it is that he does. 

• He's an average QB: Top 10 in stats across the board
• You can't win with Goff: He was 2 drops away from being in the Super Bowl
• We have Hendon Hooker, we don't need him: Hooker is nearly as old as Goff, coming off of an injury and hasn't played a down in the NFL. We have a window of opportunity. You don't go off of a proven commodity that's performing for an unknown. 

The cap is going to increase while we have veteran players that are going to come off of the books (Decker, Ragnow, Tracy Walker, etc.). Brad Holmes has done a great job with drafting. I suspect he'll continue that. We'll spend the money where we should and find replacement players at a lower cost where needed. 

Anyone who says we don't need him because we have Hendon Hooker is getting ahead of themselves.  He was a legit first-round QB prior to his injury and has some serious arm talent but is unproven.  However, what he is for the Lions is a contingency plan.  What contingencies?

1.  Jared Goff misses extended time with an injury--He has been pretty durable throughout his career but 8-seasons of NFL football takes its toll.

2.  The Lions can't come to an agreement on a new contract with Jared Goff--This is unlikely but if negotiations go sideways, they have a physically talented, and yes unproven, QB to slide in the starting role (not someone like Mike McMahon or Dan Orlovsky)

3.  Jared Goff starts playing like he did just before he was traded--I don't think this is likely now but if we are all being honest, I suspect a lot of folks thought this was going to happen already.  

 

[nagahide13]

I think Goff will sign for what he views as a discount, which should put him right in line with where y'all are projecting.

[HashtagFTW]

Without reading, I say don't extend him. I picture Baker in this offense this year and imagine where we would be and I don't think much changes. Considering where the nfl is headed, we might have the slowest QB in the league. And that's a problem considering that he's not that old. 
 

Either give the job to Hooker after next year or play it out and spend your money this year on players that will help us get to a Super Bowl immediately. 

[Karnage84]

24 minutes ago, HashtagFTW said:

Without reading, I say don't extend him. I picture Baker in this offense this year and imagine where we would be and I don't think much changes. Considering where the nfl is headed, we might have the slowest QB in the league. And that's a problem considering that he's not that old. 
 

Either give the job to Hooker after next year or play it out and spend your money this year on players that will help us get to a Super Bowl immediately. 

Baker is in line for a $45M+ contract of his own. Whether that's from Tampa or somewhere else. 

So why bring him into an offense that he's unfamiliar with for basically the same money?

[detfan782004]

1 hour ago, HashtagFTW said:

Without reading, I say don't extend him. I picture Baker in this offense this year and imagine where we would be and I don't think much changes. Considering where the nfl is headed, we might have the slowest QB in the league. And that's a problem considering that he's not that old. 
 

Either give the job to Hooker after next year or play it out and spend your money this year on players that will help us get to a Super Bowl immediately. 

What college QB would you target? 
 

 

[Jameson_Neat]

Yes, let's play it out so it gets even more expensive. Seriously, why pay a 30 year old with multiple high level years when you can pay a 28 year old with one or possibly even none? Imagine the discount. 

more speed at QB! 

Edited January 31 by Jameson_Neat

[Lions017]

I don't see how you can let Goff go. He brought us our best season in decades and I thought that he played well in all of our playoff games. He's the guy. I'm not saying lock him up for 10 years, but this is a competitive team. Unless you think you can bring in someone better, which seems highly doubtful, you have to roll with him for the next few years.