The MVP race

[J-ALL-DAY]

The Ravens have the secondary and LBs to match up with the Niners weapons and they have a good pass rush so that's going to be the best test for Purdy. Their DL should kick the Niners OL's butt all game long so if Purdy can come through against them and play well late in the game...because that is one game that will NOT be a blowout, he's going to make it hard for anyone else to beat him. In the other games, minus possible Seahawks, he's going to put up great stats and the Niners should win. 

[JIllg]

Just now, J-ALL-DAY said:

I mean Williams only missed two games and obviously the OL was AWFUL when he wasn't there but even with him, they allow pressure like crazy. The right side of the OL is putrid and we have dudes playing that wouldn't even be back ups for other good teams. It's so bad that Jon Feliciano, someone who Giants fans and Bills fans thought was awful and didn't want him back came in to play for two weeks and Niners fans were excited for him to be the starter the rest of the season lol. 

Yeah, the supporting cast argument for Brock is powerful (and somewhat deserved), but the efficiency he is putting up is so bonkers that it essentially requires an amazing supporting cast.

Brock's at 9.6 YPA and that's been pretty consistent. That's Greatest Show on Turf Rams stuff. Kurt Warner had Orlando Pace and an offensive line that is better than ours is, Marshall Faulk, Isaac Bruce, Torrey Holt, Az Hakim, and Mike Martz far ahead of defenses schematically. He still won MVP. Joe Montana in 1989 had the former best year in 49ers history (9.1 ypa) and he had a solid offensive line, Jerry Rice, John Taylor, Roger Craig, Tom Rathman, Brent Jones and Mike Holmgren calling plays that were also far ahead of the time. He still won MVP. You can argue YAC, but Purdy's got among the highest air yards per attempt in the NFL and the second highest CPOE - which shows (in general) how much more often quarterbacks complete passes other quarterbacks don't. This stat is certainly helped by receivers not dropping important passes - Brandon Aiyuk in particular has been excellent at catching downfield stuff.

I don't know if Brock's the MVP for me - Dak's been excellent and has been putting up the numbers that Purdy has for the season since they played the 9ers (and he's got less help schematically than Purdy has and has fewer weapons, albeit with a much, much better offensive line). Tyreek is a one-man explosive offense. Mahomes has made a hunk of junk into a functioning offense and is probably always the best player in the NFL. But at this point, you're missing a lot of important things that Purdy does that other guys don't if you focus only on the superb weapons he has and his physical limitations. The timing and anticipation and feel are really impressive regardless of context. Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts have both played well in spite of the occasional wart. But Purdy's play this year has absolutely been in the same class.

[minutemancl]

With QB play overall underwhelming this year, can we finally get away from this being a QB only award? Tyreek Hill and Christian McCaffrey should be in the MVP conversation. Unless there is some major shift soon, Purdy, Hurts, Mahomes, or Dak winning this award would feel so bad. 

[Forge]

2 minutes ago, JIllg said:

You can argue YAC, but Purdy's got among the highest air yards per attempt in the NFL and the second highest CPOE - which shows (in general) how much more often quarterbacks complete passes other quarterbacks don't. This stat is certainly helped by receivers not dropping important passes - Brandon Aiyuk in particular has been excellent at catching downfield stuff.

Per Mike Sando, Purdy has gotten 48.5% of his passing yards from YAC this year. League average is 47% and the last 10 MVP QBs averaged 48.0%. Last year Mahomes got 54% of his yards from YAC. 

[adamq]

Soooooooooo Purdys supporting cast is too good, but Hurts having AJB, Smith, Swift, Goedert with the best OL in football doesn't matter?

[J-ALL-DAY]

1 minute ago, JIllg said:

Yeah, the supporting cast argument for Brock is powerful (and somewhat deserved), but the efficiency he is putting up is so bonkers that it essentially requires an amazing supporting cast.

Brock's at 9.6 YPA and that's been pretty consistent. That's Greatest Show on Turf Rams stuff. Kurt Warner had Orlando Pace and an offensive line that is better than ours is, Marshall Faulk, Isaac Bruce, Torrey Holt, Az Hakim, and Mike Martz far ahead of defenses schematically. He still won MVP. Joe Montana in 1989 had the former best year in 49ers history (9.1 ypa) and he had a solid offensive line, Jerry Rice, John Taylor, Roger Craig, Tom Rathman, Brent Jones and Mike Holmgren calling plays that were also far ahead of the time. He still won MVP. You can argue YAC, but Purdy's got among the highest air yards per attempt in the NFL and the second highest CPOE - which shows (in general) how much more often quarterbacks complete passes other quarterbacks don't. This stat is certainly helped by receivers not dropping important passes - Brandon Aiyuk in particular has been excellent at catching downfield stuff.

I don't know if Brock's the MVP for me - Dak's been excellent and has been putting up the numbers that Purdy has for the season since they played the 9ers (and he's got less help schematically than Purdy has and has fewer weapons, albeit with a much, much better offensive line). Tyreek is a one-man explosive offense. Mahomes has made a hunk of junk into a functioning offense and is probably always the best player in the NFL. But at this point, you're missing a lot of important things that Purdy does that other guys don't if you focus only on the superb weapons he has and his physical limitations. The timing and anticipation and feel are really impressive regardless of context. Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts have both played well in spite of the occasional wart. But Purdy's play this year has absolutely been in the same class.

Yep, Warner nor Montana nor Manning nor Young were penalized for their great supporting cast. I'm not saying Purdy is the MVP either, just that he's probably top 2-3 at this point. Purdy was a big beneficiary of YAC yesterday but that has not been the case for much of the season. This isn't a Jimmy G case where the Niners lead the league by far on YAC per reception. What Purdy does will never look as impressive as other great QBs since they will make certain power throws that Purdy just can't. But his awareness and anticipation is among the best in the league...possibly the best. Shanahan has only had one offense on this level and that was with Matt Ryan and the Falcons in 2016....and Ryan won the MVP that year. 

[J-ALL-DAY]

3 minutes ago, Forge said:

Per Mike Sando, Purdy has gotten 48.5% of his passing yards from YAC this year. League average is 47% and the last 10 MVP QBs averaged 48.0%. Last year Mahomes got 54% of his yards from YAC. 

I knew the Niners were just average in this category but that was before yesterday's game. And this checks out since Aiyuk is Purdy's #1 target and he's catching the ball down the field often times and doesn't have the YAC of a Deebo or Kittle. 

 

[bigbadbuff]

1 hour ago, Tank4Drake said:

#1 most important factor in MVP is efficiency. How many turnovers does Allen have?

Efficiency you mean a guy who is top what 2 or 3 since 2020 in TD to turnover ratio?

 

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

1 hour ago, BroncoSojia said:

Well you copped to it. Skylar Thompson didn't exactly light it up when Tua was out last year. 

The thing about it though is that Tyreek elevates everything around him by being on the field - including Tua. Tua was nothing until Tyreek (and Mcdaniel, tbh) got there and opened up that entire offense.

Sure, CMC does that too but I don't think it's nearly to the extent that Tyreek does for MIA.

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

34 minutes ago, bigbadbuff said:

Efficiency you mean a guy who is top what 2 or 3 since 2020 in TD to turnover ratio?

 

3 weeks ago: "Josh Allen's fumbles and turnovers are a huge issue considering he leads the league in turnovers"

Now: "Josh Allen does not have turnover problem and hasn't for years, what are you talking about?"

🤔

[SmittyBacall]

Without looking at any stats and going purely on gut instinct, I think it’s Lamar? But I’m not sure. 

Feels like nobody wants it this year - more of an MVP Jog than it is a “race”.

[Nabbs4u]

16 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

The thing about it though is that Tyreek elevates everything around him by being on the field - including Tua. Tua was nothing until Tyreek (and Mcdaniel, tbh) got there and opened up that entire offense.

Sure, CMC does that too but I don't think it's nearly to the extent that Tyreek does for MIA.

Disagree or at worst it's 1A- 1B splitting hairs.

CMC is on pace to possibly break (unlikely) LT's single season TD record of 31 while putting up 2K all purpose! You can't quantify that impact for not only Brock Purdy but the overall offense as a whole.

Like Tyreek you take him off the field everyone's  roles change and they suffer. CMC continues this pace he should be League MVP like LT was!

2K All purpose 25-30TD? 🥃

Edited December 4, 2023 by Nabbs4u

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

1 minute ago, SmittyBacall said:

Without looking at any stats and going purely on gut instinct, I think it’s Lamar? But I’m not sure. 

Feels like nobody wants it this year - more of an MVP Jog than it is a “race”.

Even as a Lamar fan this year, Stroud and Dak have both been noticeably better.

[SmittyBacall]

8 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

Even as a Lamar fan this year, Stroud and Dak have both been noticeably better.

This was supposed to be Joe’s year. 😔 

[Soko]

Hill and CMC have no argument because they’re not even the most valuable players on their own team. 

Come playoff time, Tua or Purdy going down is x10 more of a death sentence than CMC or Hill.