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The MVP race


Steelersfan43

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Montana can win MVP with Rice, Taylor, Jones, Craig, and Rathman in his pocket.

Young can win MVP with Rice, Taylor, Jones, and Watters in his pocket. 

Warner can win MVP with Faulk, Bruce, Holt, Pace, Hakim, and Proehl in his pocket. 

No one then or now complains about those MVP winners having talented casts+coaches. Purdy shouldn't be penalized either. 

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3 hours ago, Soko said:

Purdy is people’s first or second MVP candidate now? Dude was largely out of people’s top 4 last week. 

Hurts’ winning narrative took a ding. Dak should be leading. Philly vs Dallas will be big.

I'm going directly off of betting sites. I have no skin in the game. It actually looks like he might be the favorite right now.

https://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/mvp/

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3 hours ago, TecmoSuperJoe said:

 

But go off...

I’m not one to hold supporting cast against Purdy (or any of the other candidates because they all have tons of talent around them) but YAC isn’t really a good measure of how strong a cast you have. 

Like, do we think Kelce/JJSS/MVS/Pacheco are better than Kittle/Aiyuk/Deebo/CMC, because of YAC? There are two Mahomes numbers up there, and the higher number is actually the one without Tyreek Hill. Meh.

Moot point because I don’t disagree that having great players around you isn’t a strong argument against, especially this year, but yeah. YAC doesn’t really prove squat.

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1 hour ago, Soko said:

I’m not one to hold supporting cast against Purdy (or any of the other candidates because they all have tons of talent around them) but YAC isn’t really a good measure of how strong a cast you have. 

Like, do we think Kelce/JJSS/MVS/Pacheco are better than Kittle/Aiyuk/Deebo/CMC, because of YAC? There are two Mahomes numbers up there, and the higher number is actually the one without Tyreek Hill. Meh.

Moot point because I don’t disagree that having great players around you isn’t a strong argument against, especially this year, but yeah. YAC doesn’t really prove squat.

But the poster I quoted who spotlighted some of the big plays in the passing game via another Twitter post basically propped up the YAC "rhetoric". That's why I responded the way I did. 

You're right in that YAC doesn't make or break a passer. Purdy irrespective of his playmakers, and Kyle's offensive system is throwing with anticipation, getting rid of the football on time, and just looking very polished under duress. 

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5 hours ago, TecmoSuperJoe said:

Montana can win MVP with Rice, Taylor, Jones, Craig, and Rathman in his pocket.

Young can win MVP with Rice, Taylor, Jones, and Watters in his pocket. 

Warner can win MVP with Faulk, Bruce, Holt, Pace, Hakim, and Proehl in his pocket. 

No one then or now complains about those MVP winners having talented casts+coaches. Purdy shouldn't be penalized either. 

We don’t even have to go that far back. 

I’ll take Mahomes 2018 weapons and coaching (Reid,Hill,Kelce,Watkins,Hunt) over the 2023 49ers weapons straight up tbh. 
 

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19 hours ago, Forge said:

It wouldn't just be because of the 49ers team achievements, it would be because Purdy has some fairly absurd stats in his own right along with playing on one of the best teams in the league (which has historically always been a component of the award) 

Is 23 TD's in 12 games really 'fairly absurd' stats? He doesn't actually stand out in genuinely significant ways, certainly not to the extent CMC does. If he was lapping the field on volume stats it'd be one thing but instead we're all being gaslit into believing that when Deebo Samuel breaks 20 tackles on a 60 yard screen pass that's the thing that separates Purdy from the pack in the MVP race. 

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51 minutes ago, SalvadorsDeli said:

Is 23 TD's in 12 games really 'fairly absurd' stats? He doesn't actually stand out in genuinely significant ways, certainly not to the extent CMC does. If he was lapping the field on volume stats it'd be one thing but instead we're all being gaslit into believing that when Deebo Samuel breaks 20 tackles on a 60 yard screen pass that's the thing that separates Purdy from the pack in the MVP race. 

A YPA a full yard higher than the second highest in the league is fairly absurd (tied for 8th all time). An ANY/A over a full yard higher than second is pretty absurd (currently 4th all time). 

The fifth highest QB DVOA of all time is pretty absurd. 

An epa a full .1 point per play higher than second and a success rate 5% higher than second is crazy, yes.

He's first in QBR, first in passer rating

If some of the other stuff is your speed, he's 4th in PFF's big time throw rate. 

He's tops in the league in completion percentage on passes over 20 yards. 

His yac has been addressed previously - it's 48.5% of his yardage, with the league average at 47% and the average of the past 10 MVPs at 48%. Mahomes' last year was 54% and this year it's 58%. Tua at 48.7% right now. 

He's also second in the league in air yards per completion (to Stroud) and second in air yards per completion per attempt (Stroud again). His ADOT is in the top half of the league and depending on source (which can vary slightly), it's right in line with Daks'. 

25 total touchdowns I believe is good for third in the league which definitely isn't a problem. 

The problem with Purdy's candidacy largely stems from people who haven't consistently watched him play and believe he's basically Jimmy G and it follows a game where the strategy (rightfully) was to throw short to mitigate the eagles pass rush against an awful offensive line and make their worst players (secondary and linebackers) make the biggest plays. 

The reaction to Purdy's MVP talk shouldn't be to **** on his worthiness and act like he's a passenger on the team and that's the sole reason he's up for the award. MVPs are often surrounded by a lot of talent. That's one of the reasons that they are so good and their teams are typically good. It's basically to say that he's not doing as much as Stroud and Dak and they simply deserve it more, which is fine. 

 

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For me I'd go Dak and Stroud at the top as almost a lock. 

Honestly, I'm kind of digging Josh Allen at #3. I'm not sure if thats a hot take or not. 

Purdy and Tua are basically the same candidate to me and Lamar. I really don't care but I'd view them as 4-6. 

Mahomes is a difficult one because there's no doubt he's doing a ton of heavy lifting for the offense, but frankly, I'm not sure the numbers are actually good enough to. I think in the end, the numbers still matter for MVP voting. 

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Nick Wright said it perfectly. If Purdy can't even make the promo for games (over CMac), then he ain't the MVP. If the actor isn't on the movie poster, he's probably not the Lead.

As much as we make fun of Dak, he should probably be the front-runner right now. The schedule gets rough though so we'll see.

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38 minutes ago, Art_Vandalay said:

Nick Wright said it perfectly. If Purdy can't even make the promo for games (over CMac), then he ain't the MVP. If the actor isn't on the movie poster, he's probably not the Lead.

As much as we make fun of Dak, he should probably be the front-runner right now. The schedule gets rough though so we'll see.

So the promo guys get to pick MVP? lol 

Sorry Dak

FerZSAeXEAAspNl.jpg:large

 

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If the difference between the 49ers weapons and the Eagles weapons is SOOOO drastic that we are dropping Purdy 2-3 spots (or removing him altogether), then certainly Jordan Love should be a top 3 MVP candidate given his lack of support comparatively?

 

edit - and obv Stroud should be #1

Edited by Soggust
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