The MVP race

[NoFlyZone]

Unless Dak goes crazy and his team wins their last three games it’s Purdy’s to lose.

[Art_Vandalay]

2 hours ago, NoFlyZone said:

Unless Dak goes crazy and his team wins their last three games it’s Purdy’s to lose.

Lamar vs Brock next week. That will likely decide it.

[Soko]

Most up in the air race in recent memory. End of the season so single games tend to move the needle a bit more, I’m not sure if that’s a good thing or not. Two weeks ago I had Dak and Hurts as the clear 1-2. Tough.

[J-ALL-DAY]

I know some use the argument of Purdy never having to throw 30 times and that he's just a game manager ( @beekay414 is one but not the only one with a similar argument)

After the first drive of the 2nd half, these were his stats at the 13:18 mark of the 3rd Q:

14-20 201 yards 3 TDs 

The team was up 28-13 at that point. The rest of the game, so damn near the entire 2nd half these were his stats:

2-5 41 yards 1 TD 

It's damn near the same thing every single game. Get a lead off the passing game and then just kill the clock by having a run heavy offense in the 2nd half. The pass/run ratio after the first drive of the 3rd Q was 20 passes to 10 runs. The rest of the game it ended up being 8 passes to 16 runs. 

[Jameson_Neat]

11 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

I know some use the argument of Purdy never having to throw 30 times and that he's just a game manager ( @beekay414 is one but not the only one with a similar argument)

After the first drive of the 2nd half, these were his stats at the 13:18 mark of the 3rd Q:

14-20 201 yards 3 TDs 

The team was up 28-13 at that point. The rest of the game, so damn near the entire 2nd half these were his stats:

2-5 41 yards 1 TD 

It's damn near the same thing every single game. Get a lead off the passing game and then just kill the clock by having a run heavy offense in the 2nd half. The pass/run ratio after the first drive of the 3rd Q was 20 passes to 10 runs. The rest of the game it ended up being 8 passes to 16 runs. 

Guy had two TD passes with no one within 15 yards of his WR. I don't think yesterday's game moves the needle much for Purdy.

[J-ALL-DAY]

2 minutes ago, Jameson_Neat said:

Guy had two TD passes with no one within 15 yards of his WR. I don't think yesterday's game moves the needle much for Purdy.

I mean what does that even mean? The reason CMC was open wasn't so special play design or anything. The defender lost track of him after Purdy evaded the rush. But again, who is talking about just that TD or the Deebo TD? If it isn't one thing to knock Purdy, it will be another. 

That's like saying the pass Jackson threw to Likely should have been intercepted by Williams so that play didn't move the needle much for me. Huh? 

[Jameson_Neat]

8 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

I mean what does that even mean? The reason CMC was open wasn't so special play design or anything. The defender lost track of him after Purdy evaded the rush. But again, who is talking about just that TD or the Deebo TD? If it isn't one thing to knock Purdy, it will be another. 

That's like saying the pass Jackson threw to Likely should have been intercepted by Williams so that play didn't move the needle much for me. Huh? 

It means voters see those highlights against a weak opponent and knock him for it. They're looking for reasons to not give him credit on a stacked offense and plays/games like that don't really help his case. 

Most voters are not going over the splits or doing a deep dive into the minutiae of each players stats.  You can look at last year with guys like Lawrence, Fields and an assistant athletic trainer receiving votes.  

I believe Collinsworth is a voter and he pretty much told everyone who he's voting for last night with hs "hard to quantify" analysis. Pretty much screams, "I don't care what the numbers say unless the guy I like is the one with the numbers."

[Chiefer]

Imagine if Mahomes had receivers who had a league average drop rate instead of the worst drop rate in a decade, that would make him a strong contender for MVP again. 

[J-ALL-DAY]

8 minutes ago, Jameson_Neat said:

It means voters see those highlights against a weak opponent and knock him for it. They're looking for reasons to not give him credit on a stacked offense and plays/games like that don't really help his case. 

Most voters are not going over the splits or doing a deep dive into the minutiae of each players stats.  You can look at last year with guys like Lawrence, Fields and an assistant athletic trainer receiving votes.  

I believe Collinsworth is a voter and he pretty much told everyone who he's voting for last night with hs "hard to quantify" analysis. Pretty much screams, "I don't care what the numbers say unless the guy I like is the one with the numbers."

I mean one single game is not the argument for Purdy or one TD in particular. He's continuing to stack big games. It can be against the Cardinals or Eagles or Cowboys or Seahawks etc. If the voters are not going to vote for him regardless, then it really does not matter the type of TDs he has or what type of performances he has. They aren't going to vote for him and will find any reason to give it someone else. Not all of Purdy's 29 TD passes have been like that. You can find easy TDs or blown coverages for every single past MVP winner. 

[FrantikRam]

McCaffrey is getting my vote. I think it has to be between him and Purdy, and I just don't think I can give it to Purdy

[Soggust]

1 hour ago, Jameson_Neat said:

Guy had two TD passes with no one within 15 yards of his WR. I don't think yesterday's game moves the needle much for Purdy.

This reminds me of a Bills fan who used to argue that Josh Allen was better than Mahomes because he often threw into tighter coverage than Mahomes did, who was often throwing to receivers in space.

I'll say the same thing now as I said then - We don't punish QBs for hitting the open receiver.

That's what we want them to do lol.

[SmittyBacall]

I like Purdy but it's going to be pretty lame to hand him the MVP. Just doesn't feel right.

[Art_Vandalay]

Here's another way I thought about looking at this. Let's take current top 5 in MVP odds.

Brock
Dak
Lamar
Josh
Hurts

Let's take the top 5 players from each of those teams.

Niners: Brock, Trent, Bosa, CMac, Deebo/Warner/Dre?
Cowboys: Dak, Micah, Zach M, Tyron, Ceedee
Ravens: Lamar, Ronnie S, Madubuike, Roquan? Tucker?
Bills: Josh, Diggs, JC, Dawkins? Morse?
Eagles: Hurts, Kelce, Mailata, Lane, AJ

You're the GM for the respective team and you're told you can only keep one of those players for one season..... I obviously don't know what your answer will be. But if you have to take more than 2 seconds to think about it, they're probably not the MVP.

Edited December 18, 2023 by Art_Vandalay
Added "for one season"

[Soggust]

26 minutes ago, FrantikRam said:

McCaffrey is getting my vote. I think it has to be between him and Purdy, and I just don't think I can give it to Purdy

How can CMC be the MVP if he's on a stacked team with great coaching and MVP QB play?

Why do we punish Brock Purdy for his team, but then we vote for a dude that's on the same team in a more dependent position? (I'm only picking on you because this is a common take and quotable, nothing personal)

We see the irony here right?

Even if we think CMC is the best player on the team (I'd argue Williams, but okay), this isn't even CMCs best year. So why wasn't Kyle Allen an MVP candidate and why did the Panthers go 5-11 in 2019 when they had CMC and similar production?

Because RB's are just not valuable anymore. It's feels like saying Lamar couldn't win MVP in 2019 because Justin Tucker was a better player P4P. Like, sure, maybe, but he doesn't play an important enough position, despite how much he scores.

 

3 minutes ago, Art_Vandalay said:

Here's another way I thought about looking at this. Let's take current top 5 in MVP odds.

Brock
Dak
Lamar
Josh
Hurts

Let's take the top 5 players from each of those teams.

Niners: Brock, Trent, Bosa, CMac, Deebo/Warner/Dre?
Cowboys: Dak, Micah, Zach M, Tyron, Ceedee
Ravens: Lamar, Ronnie S, Madubuike, Roquan? Tucker?
Bills: Josh, Diggs, JC, Dawkins? Morse?
Eagles: Hurts, Kelce, Mailata, Lane, AJ

You're the GM for the respective team and you're told you can only keep one of those players..... I obviously don't know what your answer will be. But if you have to take more than 2 seconds to think about it, they're probably not the MVP.

Every single one is QB in a heartbeat, ESPECIALLY Brock with his contract.

Edited December 18, 2023 by Soggust

[notthatbluestuff]

14 minutes ago, Soggust said:

This reminds me of a Bills fan who used to argue that Josh Allen was better than Mahomes because he often threw into tighter coverage than Mahomes did, who was often throwing to receivers in space.

I'll say the same thing now as I said then - We don't punish QBs for hitting the open receiver.

That's what we want them to do lol.

"Throwing into coverage" is either stupid or amazing, depending on whether or not the person saying it likes the QB lol.