The MVP race

[diamondbull424]

11 hours ago, Duluther said:

All of these words to do the opposite of convince. You are pillaring Lamar's MVP chances on his rushing... than remark how he only has 5 rushing TD's. He isn't even being a prolific runner in general this year (statwise); he hadn't even registered a 30+ yard run until this past game.

 

That said, Lamar overcomes your deadweight argument as, yes, he should be MVP. Based on the evident criteria (i.e., 'at least great QB' + 'at least great team' + 'playing well late in the season').

No, he’s pillaring it on the teams rushing along based on Lamar’s rushing game impact.

The argument is that the Ravens have had a host of decent RBs, but nothing special. You could argue that UDFA Keaton Mitchell was special for the few games he played or JK Dobbins was special in the half a game he played, both were hurt after very small sample sizes this year and the running game hasn’t missed a beat. Still #1 in the league.

8 hours ago, Thomas5737 said:

I see.

Oh, different amount of games you say?

 

Rushing stats for a QB are like receiving stats for a RB. They don't count at the same level. If a RB has 2600 yards and 800 are receiving, no one cares. If a RB has 2600 yards and 250 are receiving he had a historical year.

If a QB Passes for 50 TD or passes for 5000 yards that's a big deal. It means less if he passes for 4200 and runs for 800.

I'm not saying it makes sense or is fair but that's how it is. That said, Lamar's combined passing and rushing yards and TDs don't come close to the epic QB seasons. He may end up with 4700 yards (his pace) and 27-28 TD but there have been dozens of QBs who have had more passing yards and passing TDs than Lamar will end up with in total yards/TDs. So nothing historical for him either.

Stroud is probably having the most historical season this year, at least off the top of my head.

 

1) I’m not sure if that’s sarcasm or not. I’ve stated that I think Hill has a chance and that Allen as well, but I don’t think a case for Lamar is as wild as it’s being made. There is historical precedent within the last 25 years for a case like his from a TD perspective, which is what was being argued as the reason he shouldn’t win it.

Conversely everyone keeps bringing up CMC and he’s a great player, but there’s even less precedent for a RB winning with such numbers. Now he could rip off a 300 yd, 4 TD game against the Commanders and completely change things, but just based off where things currently stand was the argument.

2) I’ve argued for Lamar, Allen, Hill, and Myles Garrett as the 4 players that should seriously see MVP consideration over the last number of pages in this thread… MG doesn’t have precedent in his favor like the rest, but he’s got a historical defense and the reason numbers are down across the league is because of amazing defense this season and so I think if any skill position should win it, a defensive player would make a lot of sense as that would best tell the story of this NFL season. Tyreek if he has a top 5 WR season would also make sense. Beyond that Allen if he gets the #2 seed should absolutely win. If not, Lamar as the MVP of the team with the best NFL record (if they get that) should win because of his impact and moments.

3) I do agree with receiving yards being of less value for a RB, but I don’t agree with it being of less value for a QB. If anything it should be of more value. We know a strong rushing attack leads to a higher TOP which is correlated with stronger defenses which correlates to more wins.

Though if you’re arguing from purely how it’s considered in MVP conversations, then yeah I don’t disagree. We’ve seen Randall Cunningham lose with arguably superior seasons because he didn’t have the same passing stats/efficiency. Though I’d argue that such might also be due to the fact that there was an obvious bias against Melanated QBs during that era of football. So it is indeed an interesting case, but I don’t disagree with that argument. And again I’m not saying Lamar IS the MVP. There’s still two games left to be played and no team has locked up their seeding/place yet.

4) In your mind is your argument that there is nothing Lamar could do to win MVP this season? If not, what do you think it would take in these final two games for his case to be a realistic argument?

[The BILLievers]

Josh Allen has 8 more passing TDs than Lamar Jackson and 1 less rushing TD than CMC. 

His touchdown to turnover ratio is better than Lamar Jacksons.

I mean he's going to end up with 30+ passing TDs and 15+ rushing TDs with over 4,500 total yards. 

Not saying he should be the odds on favorite but he def should be 2nd behind Lamar imo. 

[iknowcool]

7 minutes ago, diamondbull424 said:

3) I do agree with receiving yards being of less value for a RB, but I don’t agree with it being of less value for a QB. If anything it should be of more value. We know a strong rushing attack leads to a higher TOP which is correlated with stronger defenses which correlates to more wins.

Why should receiving yards by a RB be less valued?  

Edited December 28, 2023 by iknowcool

[diamondbull424]

41 minutes ago, The BILLievers said:

Josh Allen has 8 more passing TDs than Lamar Jackson and 1 less rushing TD than CMC. 

His touchdown to turnover ratio is better than Lamar Jacksons.

I mean he's going to end up with 30+ passing TDs and 15+ rushing TDs with over 4,500 total yards. 

Not saying he should be the odds on favorite but he def should be 2nd behind Lamar imo. 

Personally I think if he wins the 2 seed he should be the absolute winner. He was my number clear cut #1 until this past game against the 49ers.

But he’s got an uphill battle due to Gus Edwards vulturing tons of goal line scores… not to mention the Ravens coaching going straight conservative with leads all season long (but I digress).

If Allen leads the Bills to these 2 wins, I think the MVP should be his. Even if he doesn’t and Lamar does, I’d have loved for this to be a co-MVP between Lamar and Allen in a similar vein to McNair/Manning back in 2003. But with the rank order voting… that will be next to impossible to achieve.

38 minutes ago, iknowcool said:

What is the reasoning for receiving yards for a RB being devalued?

1) Rushing yards are more difficult to obtain than passing yards. So a RB that can get more rushing yards did more work.

2) Rushing yards are more likely to contribute to imposing your will on the other team’s defense. So a RB that can gain more yards on the ground is typically not just securing valuable yards for the offense, but also doing it in a way that physically wears down the defense to make them easier to bury later in games (RB gets stronger as the game goes on).

Eg) As good as CMC is this season most defenders would easily choose facing him over 2020 Derrick Henry. Or would you disagree?

3) A receiving back is great, but no matter how efficient he is in that regard, he’s still likely going to be less efficient than a WR, so if you have to choose between the elite rushing threat that’s average as a receiver or the elite receiving threat that’s average as a runner, most coaches will take the elite rusher and utilize the back in pass pro or remove him off the field for the more efficient receiving option or just use him sparingly as a dump off when he’s wide open.

4) But again, if you can get both out of a back, you’re not going to complain. Also from a longevity perspective, you probably want the elite receiving back because I would imagine that would lead to less impact on the frame and a longer prime… but that’s just my assumption.

5) I’d also argue that rushing likely contributes to a greater TOP than receiving and thus better for the defense, but I’d love to see the analytics on this.

EDIT: But it’s not like I’m devaluing it a lot. I’d say it’s like the dollar vs the euro.

Edited December 28, 2023 by diamondbull424

[Thomas5737]

47 minutes ago, diamondbull424 said:

In your mind is your argument that there is nothing Lamar could do to win MVP this season? If not, what do you think it would take in these final two games for his case to be a realistic argument?

He may win it now if the vote was today, he is a media darling. There isn't a great candidate which is why there is discussion. He is in the running because of his teams record and being a QB and having a decent year (much improved from the last couple).

I'm only trying to say I see no reason why he should be a serious candidate having a decent year but McCaffrey shouldn't when he is having a great year compared to his peers. I know positional value is at play but you'll consider Hill who has 200 more yards than Lamb and 3 more TDs. Mostert has 21 TD but 800 less scrimmage yards than CMC. Hill has just a few hundred less yards but 9 less TD.

I think the voters will vote for Allen, Lamar, McCaffrey, Hill and a few votes for Tua and Purdy.

I think McCaffrey deserves it, once hill got hurt he became unquestionably the best skilled player in the league (It's going to a skill position).

Still, I think if Allen finishes strong he wins. If not, hey we may have a 3 way tie or something.

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

3 minutes ago, Thomas5737 said:

he is a media darling.

Since when?

[diamondbull424]

15 minutes ago, Thomas5737 said:

He may win it now if the vote was today, he is a media darling. There isn't a great candidate which is why there is discussion. He is in the running because of his teams record and being a QB and having a decent year (much improved from the last couple).

I'm only trying to say I see no reason why he should be a serious candidate having a decent year but McCaffrey shouldn't when he is having a great year compared to his peers. I know positional value is at play but you'll consider Hill who has 200 more yards than Lamb and 3 more TDs. Mostert has 21 TD but 800 less scrimmage yards than CMC. Hill has just a few hundred less yards but 9 less TD.

I think the voters will vote for Allen, Lamar, McCaffrey, Hill and a few votes for Tua and Purdy.

I think McCaffrey deserves it, once hill got hurt he became unquestionably the best skilled player in the league (It's going to a skill position).

Still, I think if Allen finishes strong he wins. If not, hey we may have a 3 way tie or something.

I think the Lamar MVP discussion amongst the media isn’t about him being a darling but moreso about them knowing it would’ve been a potential mistake to give the MVP to Purdy… and Lamar and the Ravens defense essentially saved them from having to make that choice.

I think it’s all a facade this week, if he wins and plays well, I think there real feelings will be made known next week. So regardless of how Lamar finishes I honestly don’t believe he will win the MVP this season.

Well… I think it’s highly unlikely anyway. The only legit chance I think he has is if he blows Miami up with a 350 yd passing, 100 yd rushing, 4 TD perfect passer rating type performance and then follows that up by playing the first half of the Steelers game and going a clean 2 TDs to 0 INTs, with another 200 yds of offense... and the Ravens win out for the 14-3 record.

Realistically I think the media wants to give the MVP to Allen and I’m absolutely okay with that. He has the TDs, he has the impact, and unless he fumbles it away be losing to the Pats this week, I think it’s truly his to lose.

I think Lamar is just getting the same type of flowers that Purdy was being given, but they find him at least a more worthy candidate because they at least know he’s elite in this league whereas if Purdy turns out to be the next Jimmy G (not saying he will be) then we would look back and say “how did they give the MVP to Purdy over Tyreek, Allen, or even his own teammate CMC?”

[FrantikRam]

2 hours ago, Flounch said:

I dont know if i'm the only one but i saw a few Ravens games this season and everytime i saw Lamar playing i wasn't baffled by his play. He throws the ball poorly, the passing game is boring. He still have elite escape ability but he has to thanks the defense for keeping him in the play. If the Ravens had to play behind the score, i don't think Lamar would have the capability to make a great comeback by himself. 

 

I mean the Rams offense torched Baltimore's D all day. If Lamar wouldn't have kept pace, it would have been a blow out. The only reason he wasn't playing from further behind in that game was because the offense kept scoring, a lot of which was him buying time for his WRs to get open.

[FrantikRam]

25 minutes ago, Thomas5737 said:

He may win it now if the vote was today, he is a media darling. There isn't a great candidate which is why there is discussion. He is in the running because of his teams record and being a QB and having a decent year (much improved from the last couple).

I'm only trying to say I see no reason why he should be a serious candidate having a decent year but McCaffrey shouldn't when he is having a great year compared to his peers. I know positional value is at play but you'll consider Hill who has 200 more yards than Lamb and 3 more TDs. Mostert has 21 TD but 800 less scrimmage yards than CMC. Hill has just a few hundred less yards but 9 less TD.

I think the voters will vote for Allen, Lamar, McCaffrey, Hill and a few votes for Tua and Purdy.

I think McCaffrey deserves it, once hill got hurt he became unquestionably the best skilled player in the league (It's going to a skill position).

Still, I think if Allen finishes strong he wins. If not, hey we may have a 3 way tie or something.

 

Without Hill, the Dolphins offense would be  mediocre to garbage. We saw this happen.

Without McCaffrey, I think the Niners offense probably drops from top 2 to top 8. Hill is WAY more valuable than McCaffrey

[Thomas5737]

25 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

Since when?

Since his second season.

The last couple years he has been in many many top 5 QB lists when his actual season was 15th and lower each year. No other QB could have back to back mediocre or worse seasons and still be looked at as a top QB besides maybe Mahomes and he really has earned it. Just listening to national media he is certainly a darling.

For some reason a lot of Ravens fans only hear the negative, this site included. Just because 3 people say something in not the greatest light it doesn't discount that the other 97 are glowing reviews.

[Trentwannabe]

I think Lamar should get MVP and the Bills should get the Super Bowl win.

That seems fair to me. 

[Forge]

Ahh, now I'm seeing Matthew Stafford starting to get into the conversation. 

Lol just so funny how it operates. Last week it had to be Lamar 

[Flounch]

1 hour ago, FrantikRam said:

 

I mean the Rams offense torched Baltimore's D all day. If Lamar wouldn't have kept pace, it would have been a blow out. The only reason he wasn't playing from further behind in that game was because the offense kept scoring, a lot of which was him buying time for his WRs to get open.

Except that before the Rams game, Lamar wasn't good at deep throws passes. Thanks to our DB and miss assignment, he made big plays against us. But it doesn t mean anything.

[jofos]

I think people should stop talking about Josh Allen being in the MVP race. If this continues, he is going have a horrible game against the Patriots and they may win and mess up their draft pick. Mac Jones is the real MVP!

[The BILLievers]

Wondering why the MVP odds for Allen on Tuesday was +1400; now on Thursday +800 on FanDuel. 

What will be very interesting is if it plays out this way:

• Lamar Jackson beats the Dolphins this week and sits/rests week 18.
  • It bolsters Lamar's case to win MVP (if he plays great) but also opens the door for the Bills/Allen to get the #2 seed which bolsters Allens case.
• Josh Allen beats the Patriots and Dolphins the next two weeks and secures the #2 seed while leading the NFL in total touchdowns and total yards. 

Edited December 28, 2023 by The BILLievers