2024 Draft Debate and Discussion

[HuskieBear]

anyone see Matt Miller's Mock on espn this morning? i'm curious to see if some of the national media is shifting from draft a QB to support fields. I doubt it, but curious

I used to have espn+ for free somehow on my phone, but i got a new one last week and when i logged in it was gone. oh well 

[StLunatic88]

5 minutes ago, HuskieBear said:

anyone see Matt Miller's Mock on espn this morning? i'm curious to see if some of the national media is shifting from draft a QB to support fields. I doubt it, but curious

I used to have espn+ for free somehow on my phone, but i got a new one last week and when i logged in it was gone. oh well 

He has us taking Caleb Williams at #1

Not sure how we feel about sharing what he said, Ill share a snip or two, Mods if we dont want to go that just delete these

Quote

The Bears have a tough decision to make at quarterback given how well Justin Fields has played since his return from a right thumb injury a month ago. But he has been inconsistent over three seasons, and Chicago would likely take a quarterback if it lands one of the top two selections in the draft...

...the Bears simply cannot afford to pass on for another year of Fields. Restarting the clock at the position -- both in terms of salary and development timeline -- now is crucial with Fields' fifth-year option decision on deck.

He also has us grabbing Nabers at #8 over both Alt and Bowers who go 9/10 right after

Edited December 12, 2023 by StLunatic88

[dafreak]

 

[dll2000]

26 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said:

The Caleb Williams debate is so predictable, but also so strange at the same time. There are 3 camps, and 2 of them are VERY loud, but are likely smaller combined than the 3rd.

First, If you were all in on Williams to start this year, the results and criticism have just made you double down on how great he is, without admitting there may be some questions to his game. And want to claim its a bunch of umm... (Something I cant bring up on FF without getting threads locked) on the other side who are just picking on him because he is alittle different.

And on the other side, you have the group that the first group is pointing at, who arent what they are calling them, but they are such haters, they cant cant give him any praise while pointing out everything bad and weird about him. 

Id say the first group is like 15% of the Draft/Football fans in the conversation, and the second group is probably only about 10%. With the other 75% of people who are more rational, and have the ability to like him, but see the issues. I know Im not breaking new ground here, its the world today, but this "debate" from that 25% is extremely loud, and in reality is about something other than the Football player.

In reality, Williams got overhyped just like every other Top QB who had to stay in College for an extra year after they exploded onto the scene. He is still a Great Prospect, but he isnt generational like alot of us thought (we use that WAY too much). He is exciting, he is athletic, but he is on the smaller size with small hands (Fumbling issues), but can make some great off balance throws outside of structure, but that is also dangerous as we move into a more structured level of football, where it can still be exciting, but Defenses are much better to take advantage of those tyope of risks. 

The civil side of the CW debate is going to be crazy to begin with, add in the fringes and its going to be Banana Land this offseason

The even more crazy discussion for us is going to be what we do (Fields/Draft Pick), because there is alot of good points on every side, and is going to have so many ripples from it. Because it seems more likely than not that we end up with that #1 pick. 

If you are playing odds then you have to trade #1 assuming you get a return in neighborhood of recent drafts for #1.   Even with a mediocre QB in place for a time the multiple high-talent additions to the team are going to make you significantly better within 2 years unless you blow nearly all the picks.  

In order to sit and take the pick you have to a) be pretty sure the QB is going to work out and b) Fields has to show no real improvement going forward.

Or Fields shows only modest improvement and someone offers you a first rounder for him.  

Or in alternative you think this is a QB prospect that is so good you just cannot pass on him.

The one scenario that is an unacceptable line of thought is staying at #1 and taking a non-QB.

 

[StLunatic88]

33 minutes ago, dll2000 said:

If you are playing odds then you have to trade #1 assuming you get a return in neighborhood of recent drafts for #1.   Even with a mediocre QB in place for a time the multiple high-talent additions to the team are going to make you significantly better within 2 years unless you blow nearly all the picks.  

I do agree with all of this. While I have fallen out of love with Fields this year (the inability to let the ball rip just irks me at this point) I cant help but think that it has something to do with Getsy and what he tried to change in him over the offseason

But what it really comes down to for me, neither Williams/Maye are Andrew Luck or Cam Newton or even Trevor Lawrence. I think if Fields doesnt work out, there are plenty of QBs who will be on their level in the next 2 drafts, as well as some Serious Veterans that will be available, which could all be obtained by use of the assets that we accrue from trading 2 straight #1 Overall Picks

And if somehow Fields does figure it out, then we have a massive arsenal of assets that should now turn into actual players to make him and the rest of the team even better.

Just think, even if Fields isnt it, and there isnt the guy we really want in the 2025 Draft, we could have stocked this team with high end talent, and be looking at a Kirk Cousins, now 18+ months recovered from his Achilles and looking for one last ride... (and he could likely be signed as a FA)

I know Im projecting WAY out with that one, but there are scenarios like that out there, its not just about finding a guy at the top of the draft. In the Modern Era, only like a handful of guys who were #1 Picks have lead their teams to Super Bowls (Elway, Aikman, the Mannings and Stafford?) Thats 10 Super Bowls in the last 40 years of #1 overall picks. And honestly, Elways were at the end of his career where he was being carried more than when he was the guy for most of his career, Aikman had the Cowboys juggernaut, One of Peyton's and Stafford's were with teams other than who drafted them, and probably only Giants fan will claim Eli was the reason for those wins. So at best were talking about 8 SBs for the teams who Drafted them #1, but in reality it is like 5/6 due to that #1 pick

Edited December 12, 2023 by StLunatic88

[HuskieBear]

49 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said:

He also has us grabbing Nabers at #8 over both Alt and Bowers who go 9/10 right after

WR is absolutely the right call if we go QB #1 - need to give a solid #2 for whoever is playing QB for us next season 

[StLunatic88]

1 minute ago, HuskieBear said:

WR is absolutely the right call if we go QB #1 - need to give a solid #2 for whoever is playing QB for us next season 

I dont know if its "absolutely" the right call. Im all for it, it makes sense, but there are plenty of things we could do there.

We need to add 2 more weapons; 2 WRs or WR/TE, could be a Vet in there, could be 2 draft picks, but Im not locking in that we need a First Round Receiver.

I like Nabors alot, but man, Bowers in that pick could make this offense like something most of the league hasnt seen since Gronk/Hernandez.

Alot of Options out there, which will make Mock season so much fun this year

[dll2000]

15 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said:

I do agree with all of this. While I have fallen out of love with Fields this year (the inability to let the ball rip just irks me at this point) I cant help but think that it has something to do with Getsy and what he tried to change in him over the offseason

But what it really comes down to for me, neither Williams/Maye are Andrew Luck or Cam Newton or even Trevor Lawrence. I think if Fields doesnt work out, there are plenty of QBs who will be on their level in the next 2 drafts, as well as some Serious Veterans that will be available, which could all be obtained by use of the assets that we accrue from trading 2 straight #1 Overall Picks

And if somehow Fields does figure it out, then we have a massive arsenal of assets that should now turn into actual players to make him and the rest of the team even better.

Just think, even if Fields isnt it, and there isnt the guy we really want in the 2025 Draft, we could have stocked this team with high end talent, and be looking at a Kirk Cousins, now 18+ months recovered from his Achilles and looking for one last ride... (and he could likely be signed as a FA)

I know Im projecting WAY out with that one, but there are scenarios like that out there, its not just about finding a guy at the top of the draft. In the Modern Era, only like a handful of guys who were #1 Picks have lead their teams to Super Bowls (Elway, Aikman, the Mannings and Stafford?) Thats 10 Super Bowls in the last 40 years of #1 overall picks. And honestly, Elways were at the end of his career where he was being carried more than when he was the guy for most of his career, Aikman had the Cowboys juggernaut, One of Peyton's and Stafford's were with teams other than who drafted them, and probably only Giants fan will claim Eli was the reason for those wins. So at best were talking about 8 SBs for the teams who Drafted them #1, but in reality it is like 5/6 due to that #1 pick

Other thing is since Fields hasn't set world on fire and you decide to keep him you can conceivably extend him this offseason without totally breaking bank.

 

[StLunatic88]

29 minutes ago, dll2000 said:

Other thing is since Fields hasn't set world on fire and you decide to keep him you can conceivably extend him this offseason without totally breaking bank.

Possibly. Youd have to get very creative for me to be happy with a real extension. Something like the Jordan Love deal? Maybe because it makes it completely incentive based. 

But Im completely fine with just exercising his ~$20m 5YO, and seeing what happens. Because as Ive said, the Price for even an average, or in this case a hopeful Starting QB is sky high, $20m is nothing to a team who needs to do something other than flounder in the Backup QB market. We might not get a ton in return at that point, but he wont be stuck on our Cap.

In 2025, there are currently 16 QBs slated to have Cap hits north of what JFs 5YO is worth. Which include Gorappolo, Danny Dimes, Derek Carr and others. Not all will still be on those teams, but you can bet the cost of mediocre QBs is only going up from this point.

And if he does click next year, $20m will be a discount. Plus you still have the Franchise Tag after that (which would equate to something like a 3 year $125m deal with the 5YO+2 Franchise Tags) And you dont have to commit long term unless he proves it. 

 

[dll2000]

4 hours ago, StLunatic88 said:

Possibly. Youd have to get very creative for me to be happy with a real extension. Something like the Jordan Love deal? Maybe because it makes it completely incentive based. 

But Im completely fine with just exercising his ~$20m 5YO, and seeing what happens. Because as Ive said, the Price for even an average, or in this case a hopeful Starting QB is sky high, $20m is nothing to a team who needs to do something other than flounder in the Backup QB market. We might not get a ton in return at that point, but he wont be stuck on our Cap.

In 2025, there are currently 16 QBs slated to have Cap hits north of what JFs 5YO is worth. Which include Gorappolo, Danny Dimes, Derek Carr and others. Not all will still be on those teams, but you can bet the cost of mediocre QBs is only going up from this point.

And if he does click next year, $20m will be a discount. Plus you still have the Franchise Tag after that (which would equate to something like a 3 year $125m deal with the 5YO+2 Franchise Tags) And you dont have to commit long term unless he proves it. 

 

He probably 'bets on himself' anyway if he doesn't get a big deal.  

 

[chisoxguy7]

I want Poles to be a madman and trade down, and then take both MHJ and Nabers in the top 10. Hit C and DL in FA, acquire a 2nd round pick and take a tackle to develop

[Sugashane]

36 minutes ago, chisoxguy7 said:

I want Poles to be a madman and trade down, and then take both MHJ and Nabers in the top 10. Hit C and DL in FA, acquire a 2nd round pick and take a tackle to develop

Moore, MHJ AND Nabers?!

COULD YOU IMAGINE ALL THE SCREENS GETSY COULD CALL WITH THAT TALENT!?!?

[Epyon]

3 hours ago, chisoxguy7 said:

I want Poles to be a madman and trade down, and then take both MHJ and Nabers in the top 10. Hit C and DL in FA, acquire a 2nd round pick and take a tackle to develop

If we keep Fields, Moore + MHJ + Nabers is the way.

 

Lot tougher to fill out the receiver room if we go Caleb though.

 

Really just depends on whether the staff has conviction of Williams (or I suppose Maye) and where the evaluation of Fields is..... IMO he's still no where close to where he needs to be as a pocket passer.

Edited December 13, 2023 by Epyon

[dafreak]

9 minutes ago, Epyon said:

If we keep Fields, Moore + MHJ + Nabers is the way.

 

Lot tougher to fill out the receiver room if we go Caleb though.

 

Really just depends on whether the staff has conviction of Williams (or I suppose Maye) and where the evaluation of Fields is..... IMO he's still no where close to where he needs to be as a pocket passer.

Do it! Could you imagine those 4 together - fill in the holes with bpa the rest of the draft.

[AZBearsFan]

11 hours ago, StLunatic88 said:

Possibly. Youd have to get very creative for me to be happy with a real extension. Something like the Jordan Love deal? Maybe because it makes it completely incentive based. 

But Im completely fine with just exercising his ~$20m 5YO, and seeing what happens. Because as Ive said, the Price for even an average, or in this case a hopeful Starting QB is sky high, $20m is nothing to a team who needs to do something other than flounder in the Backup QB market. We might not get a ton in return at that point, but he wont be stuck on our Cap.

In 2025, there are currently 16 QBs slated to have Cap hits north of what JFs 5YO is worth. Which include Gorappolo, Danny Dimes, Derek Carr and others. Not all will still be on those teams, but you can bet the cost of mediocre QBs is only going up from this point.

And if he does click next year, $20m will be a discount. Plus you still have the Franchise Tag after that (which would equate to something like a 3 year $125m deal with the 5YO+2 Franchise Tags) And you dont have to commit long term unless he proves it. 

I love that you presented it this way. Keeping Fields for 2024, exercising his 5YO and tagging him once would amount to about $75-80M over 3 years from 2024-26, all of which would be fully guaranteed as it comes up but really could be treated as a year-to-year option (if they go this route they could dump Fields post-2024 for the cost of eating the 5YO at ~$25M). If we trade the #1 pick we’ll surely have 2 #1 picks in 2025 and maybe also in 2026 with which to pursue a replacement if Fields doesn’t end up being the guy.

Per Rapoport, Poles would “have to be blown away” to move on from Fields. What I hear in that is, he needs to see an obvious upgrade. If Poles doesn’t like the warts on Williams or Maye (and there are warts) or he doesn’t see them as any less flawed than Fields even if differently flawed, then he has real options that aren’t giving Fields a massive deal this offseason. That isn’t something that HAS to happen this offseason despite what many would have you believe.