Week 8 GDT : KC @ DEN

[lomaxgrUK]

Few things that stood out live:

- Turnovers on D. They change everything. Momentum, field position and (obviously) points. We FINALLY were the ones getting the turnovers at key moments, rather than giving the turnovers.

- 3rd down pass rush. Browning seemed to have a fantastic game. He's just got a different kind of athleticism to the rest of that group. He's quick, but sneaky strong and really bendy. But, more importantly, was this the Zach Allen coming out game? The Chiefs IOL is one of the best in the league, and Allen was in the backfield (run and pass game) all day.

- Run Defense. We seemed much more stout upfront. Payton talked about it after the game - stopping the run changes everything defensively. I could be wrong, but I thought I saw Purcell out there at DE for Harris quite a lot. Mike Klis usually posts the snap counts on Monday, so I will have a look.

- Offense did enough when they had to. It wasn't the prettiest; that said, that is the best way to beat the Chiefs. Control the clock, control the TOP, limit the Chiefs Offensive snaps. 

[lomaxgrUK]

1 hour ago, lomaxgrUK said:

I could be wrong, but I thought I saw Purcell out there at DE for Harris quite a lot. Mike Klis usually posts the snap counts on Monday, so I will have a look.

Turns out I am wrong. Only 10 snaps for Purcell, 24 for Harris.

Interestingly, McMillian (who I totally forgot to praise) played 58 of 61 snaps on Defense. Shows how often we were in our Nickel, which makes our Run D performance even better.

[broncosfan_101]

14 hours ago, AnAngryAmerican said:

I know big picture can be hard for some to understand. My point regarding McManus was larger than just that. 

I know the Payton Apologists want to make as many excuses as possible and you got your Reid/Mahomes hide on the wall today, so celebrate that, and the all time great Will Lutz with his 1/2 FGs, 3/3 PATs today, so you have that. Enjoy it. 

Big picture?? HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

McManus seems like a super decent dude, but he’s a horribly average kicker. We’re getting the same production this season for about 70% of the cap hit (and like half of that is Mac’s dead cap). 
 

The big picture is Sean found a cheaper way to get the same job done. Sorry if that offends you (just kidding, not sorry, I actually find it hilarious). 

[jsthomp2007]

The Broncos just ended a 16-game skid against the Chiefs, defending Super Bowl champs, and we are talking about McManus? 

[grizmo78]

1 hour ago, broncosfan_101 said:

Big picture?? HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

McManus seems like a super decent dude, but he’s a horribly average kicker. We’re getting the same production this season for about 70% of the cap hit (and like half of that is Mac’s dead cap). 
 

The big picture is Sean found a cheaper way to get the same job done. Sorry if that offends you (just kidding, not sorry, I actually find it hilarious). 

Wrong. We're paying our kicker position more this year than McManus is currently making on the Jags and on top of it we paid a draft pick for it. Also wrong that McManus is a horribly average kicker. He's not top 5 in the league but i'd put him around the top 10 spot and his year this year is proving it. Of his two misses this year, one is a block. 

Lutz has been good, especially after week 1 but it's easy to say the whole situation was unnecessary and hasn't been beneficial. At best its net even for skills for a higher cap and less draft picks.  

And to get back to this game... FINALLY! Last weeks win felt fine. Nice to get a win but probably not the ideal outcome for our future draft situation. This week though? Feels amazing. We had more than a few things break our way but i'll take it any way we can get it to stop that dumb streak and get a win against Mahomes. The constant improvement game to game is noticeable and while we won't be a contender (or even pretender) this year, it's giving me hope for the future. Also, I'm not a fan of VJ but gotta give credit where credit is due. The defense has been so much improved since the Miami game. I don't really know what changed besides getting a couple guys healthy and dropping some bad attitudes but whatever it is, it's working.

Edited October 30, 2023 by grizmo78

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, grizmo78 said:

Wrong. We're paying our kicker position more this year than McManus is currently making on the Jags and on top of it we paid a draft pick for it. Also wrong that McManus is a horribly average kicker. He's not top 5 in the league but i'd put him around the top 10 spot and his year this year is proving it. Of his two misses this year, one is a block. 

Lutz has been good, especially after week 1 but it's easy to say the whole situation was unnecessary and hasn't been beneficial. At best its net even for skills for a higher cap and less draft picks.  

And to get back to this game... FINALLY! Last weeks win felt fine. Nice to get a win but probably not the ideal outcome for our future draft situation. This week though? Feels amazing. We had more than a few things break our way but i'll take it any way we can get it to stop that dumb streak and get a win against Mahomes. The constant improvement game to game is noticeable and while we won't be a contender (or even pretender) this year, it's giving me hope for the future. Also, I'm not a fan of VJ but gotta give credit where credit is due. The defense has been so much improved since the Miami game. I don't really know what changed besides getting a couple guys healthy and dropping some bad attitudes but whatever it is, it's working.

Re: the D, a few things to note:

1.  KC's WR corps is bad.   GB's WR corps isn't as bad, but they're young (and Christian Watson was just coming back from injury, same with Aaron Jones).  It made it a lot easier for the secondary's problems to be hidden.  Having said that...

2.  Fabien Moreau has helped with CB2 work, Jaquan McMillan has solidified CB3, and more importantly, PJ Locke is miles better than Kareem Jackson in pass coverage.  It's really nuts that it took Jackson's ejection and then suspension to keep him off the field.  And yes, that's a VJ decision.   So it's hard for me to credit him when he basically was lucked into that decision.   In the MIA game, we had Mathis & Bassey as our CB2-3, and Jackson in run / coverage support as S.   We also didn't have Simmons for the MIA game (so we literally had our CB2-3, and both safeties out.

3.  On the run side, it's definitely an effort thing.  Browning wasn't playing, and Gregory wasted a ton of snaps not setting an edge.   And Jewell left after the 2nd drive.   

4.  Browning in pass rush with Bonnito is definitely creating problems.

These are all good signs because our secondary isn't a sieve anymore.   BUT, and it's a big but - we've faced no real dual-WR threats the last 3 games, when the D turnaround started.   We let DJ Moore & Cole Kmet and the RB's run wild Week 4 - but it was the same Mathis - Bassey combo (although McMillan started to play more slot, which helped) & no Simmons-Sterns, either.   But NYJ had Garrett Wilson & the run game Week 5, and Wks 6-7-8, we've had a pass vs. pretty thin and easy-to-cover WR corps.   

Still, it's a good sign - but @BUF, vs. MIN (if they had a QB and Justin Jefferson back) would have been far better tests to see how we stand up.   Obv MIN isn't nearly so fearsome now, barring a QB trade by Tuesday.   Still, I see the improvements as almost all personnel related - Browning over Gregory, Locke over Kareem, getting Simmons back, and Moreau & McMillan as our CB2-3 (wouldn't throw in the towel on Mathis yet, it's year 2, that's part of the growing pains sadly with CB's).

[broncosfan_101]

1 hour ago, grizmo78 said:

Wrong. We're paying our kicker position more this year than McManus is currently making on the Jags and on top of it we paid a draft pick for it. Also wrong that McManus is a horribly average kicker. He's not top 5 in the league but i'd put him around the top 10 spot and his year this year is proving it. Of his two misses this year, one is a block. 

Lutz has been good, especially after week 1 but it's easy to say the whole situation was unnecessary and hasn't been beneficial. At best its net even for skills for a higher cap and less draft picks.  

McManus’s cap hit *with us* was gonna be like $4.3M, he signed for much cheaper with JAC. And you can say you’d rank him top 10, but the numbers wouldn’t agree with you. Over the last 4 seasons, he’s ranked 12th, 21st, 22nd, and 29th in overall FG%, while missing 7 of 114 XPA’s. Lutz’s touchback numbers have generally been as good as McManus’s as well (and is incredibly high to start this season, but we’ll see if that continues as the ground gets a little slicker in winter). 
 

I don’t think Wil Lutz is much of an upgrade (if any), but younger and cheaper for the same production is always good. Odds are he’s providing as much surplus value as a 7th round pick would. Anyone claiming going from McManus to Lutz is based on Sean’s favouritism alone is being willfully ignorant. 

[Broncofan]

22 minutes ago, broncosfan_101 said:

McManus’s cap hit *with us* was gonna be like $4.3M, he signed for much cheaper with JAC. And you can say you’d rank him top 10, but the numbers wouldn’t agree with you. Over the last 4 seasons, he’s ranked 12th, 21st, 22nd, and 29th in overall FG%, while missing 7 of 114 XPA’s. Lutz’s touchback numbers have generally been as good as McManus’s as well (and is incredibly high to start this season, but we’ll see if that continues as the ground gets a little slicker in winter). 
 

I don’t think Wil Lutz is much of an upgrade (if any), but younger and cheaper for the same production is always good. Odds are he’s providing as much surplus value as a 7th round pick would. Anyone claiming going from McManus to Lutz is based on Sean’s favouritism alone is being willfully ignorant. 

Plus, I think we have to distinguish trades aren't all created equally.

Trading a 5th for a ST guy that you release the next year is just foolish (yes, I'm looking at you Elway for that one) - there's literally no impact that helps the team win games both in the present, or the future.   

Trading a 6th for a 7th really has no loss by itself - it's more does the guy even help you.    Or worse, does the guy hurt you.   I would submit that the Trautman trade is the worst kind of trades - because the guy you get Payton clearly likes so much he's not willing to look at better options.   It's the lost opportunity cost I despair with Trautman deals.   I mean, PHI trades a 6th for a 7th and gets a starting S for 1.5+ season lol.  I don't have to have THAT kind of impact to justify the deals.

The bigger deals I worry about are the Riley Moss and even the Marvin Mims deals (although I think the latter will work out, because moving back 45 spots in Day 3 is not the same as giving up a future 4th).   Sure, a 4th doesn't sound bad - until you realize you're picking in the top 5-10.  Then it's a top 100-110 pick, and that's far different than being in the 130+ range.    It's this absolute need that you HAVE to have some guys we've seen with Payton - and with non-QB's, it has been more hit & miss in his NO days (again, Jeff Ireland did the scouting, so hard to know how much Payton himself was the pusher).   Marcus Davenport, Trevor Penning and Chris Olave are the recent examples - Olave's been the one that was working out (well, until the last 2 weeks lol).    But you better be right if you're going to spend more picks. 

With Lutz / Mcmanus, though - honestly, it's not a deal breaker either way.  And yes, Lutz is less expensive in his 2023 salary that DEN owes, even with his dead money hit of 2.5M with the release, Mcmanus had an additional 3.5M salary we walked away from.   So it was a net 2M savings for 2023-4.   Just keep in mind though that Payton may want Lutz around next year at similar $ to McManus' 2024 salary, so then it becomes less about $ and preference.  We'll see.   But it's not really a big deal either way.    

 

Anyways, back to the game & season.   @broncos67, no rush, but feel free to start the Wk10 GDT thread anytime.... unlike KC, we have some serious matchup problems on both sides of the ball, it will be a good test of how much our new changes stick.

Edited October 30, 2023 by Broncofan

[Zukhyubern]

Gotta say, even after oscillating back and forth between the pro- and anti-tank positions all year there's nothing that could match the joy in seeing us beat up on Mahomes and the Chiefs. 

Even if we lose out and still miss out on a top-5 pick that win will be worth it in my eyes. Do I think we're a playoff team? No. But I do think this win will catalyze some sort of cohesion and morale in this team's culture that will be more important than the details of a record. Even if our record reflects mediocrity I want to see this team fight and we're finally seeing that again, which makes me happy

[broncosfan_101]

52 minutes ago, Zukhyubern said:

Gotta say, even after oscillating back and forth between the pro- and anti-tank positions all year there's nothing that could match the joy in seeing us beat up on Mahomes and the Chiefs. 

Even if we lose out and still miss out on a top-5 pick that win will be worth it in my eyes. Do I think we're a playoff team? No. But I do think this win will catalyze some sort of cohesion and morale in this team's culture that will be more important than the details of a record. Even if our record reflects mediocrity I want to see this team fight and we're finally seeing that again, which makes me happy

I’m just about as pro-tank as it gets, and I love this win wholeheartedly. Just like you, I don’t think this catapults us into playoff contender status, but I think we’ve got the right coach, and for the players to buy in, they’ve gotta see some results. What a massive result yesterday was. Honestly, it was perfect. Huge culture-building efforts across the board, but also nothing to convince Sean that he’s got his long term QB in the building already. 
 

Also, Ja’Quan McMillian might be a Real Guy. https://x.com/baldynfl/status/1718991436014600379?s=46&t=826ZclGEe_WwE1tDWKtAWQ

[AnAngryAmerican]

Kind of incredible what back to back wins does. I suddenly see quite a few winnable games on the schedule. 

At Buffalo will be tough, they’re good and that’s a brutal place to play, and it’s on Monday night. But Vikings (no Cousins) and Browns at home, at Houston, the Chargers (twice), Patriots at home, and close out against the Raiders in what will likely be Mac’s last game. The only one that’s probably a L at Detroit, they’re good and it’ll likely be a 11am kickoff. 

Splitting with the Chargers and losing to the Lions gives us 7 losses, but win the rest we’re 10-7 and firmly in Wild Card territory. That probably won’t happen, but at 3-5 with 7 winnable games, if we go 5-2 in those other ones we’re 8-7, first winning record since Kube’s final year in 2016. 

[1234567]

4 hours ago, AnAngryAmerican said:

Kind of incredible what back to back wins does. I suddenly see quite a few winnable games on the schedule. 

At Buffalo will be tough, they’re good and that’s a brutal place to play, and it’s on Monday night. But Vikings (no Cousins) and Browns at home, at Houston, the Chargers (twice), Patriots at home, and close out against the Raiders in what will likely be Mac’s last game. The only one that’s probably a L at Detroit, they’re good and it’ll likely be a 11am kickoff. 

Splitting with the Chargers and losing to the Lions gives us 7 losses, but win the rest we’re 10-7 and firmly in Wild Card territory. That probably won’t happen, but at 3-5 with 7 winnable games, if we go 5-2 in those other ones we’re 8-7, first winning record since Kube’s final year in 2016. 

Denver has/had a full 15 days to prepare, and the Bills have looked extremely mortal at times this year. If we can somehow steal one in Buffalo, this becomes a whole new season immediately. Crazy to think we’re even having these discussions after that 1-5 start.  

[jsthomp2007]

15 hours ago, AnAngryAmerican said:

Kind of incredible what back to back wins does. I suddenly see quite a few winnable games on the schedule. 

At Buffalo will be tough, they’re good and that’s a brutal place to play, and it’s on Monday night. But Vikings (no Cousins) and Browns at home, at Houston, the Chargers (twice), Patriots at home, and close out against the Raiders in what will likely be Mac’s last game. The only one that’s probably a L at Detroit, they’re good and it’ll likely be a 11am kickoff. 

Splitting with the Chargers and losing to the Lions gives us 7 losses, but win the rest we’re 10-7 and firmly in Wild Card territory. That probably won’t happen, but at 3-5 with 7 winnable games, if we go 5-2 in those other ones we’re 8-7, first winning record since Kube’s final year in 2016. 

A winning record would be a nice change.  Let's end the losing seasons' streak.