Week 15: Broncos @Lions

[thebestever6]

Let's see if we can keep another run going. This team is well coached, and Detroit looks to be a more flawed team than anyone anticipated, but we're gonna have to take their best punch. Te matchup is a worry, and their running game I think Vance Joseph is the key to the game.

The line is concerning with meinertz having issues Detroit has one of the most underrated d lineman outside of Hutchinson his name eludes me he's that underrated. 

I think either Mims or Jeudy are gonna have to step up in order to contend in this game. That or we're gonna need a ball control offense to limit possessions or possibly a little of both. 

I see a 31 to 24 Denver win but we'll see.

[jsthomp2007]

Goff cannot handle pressure. I hope the Chargers game was a precursor to what they plan on doing to Goff.

[grizmo78]

If we can get an early lead, that could be all the momentum we need. Their O-line is great and that running game can be extremely efficient. 

[broncos67]

Detroit's running game scares me, and even though we've had a great defensive showing of late, they can hammer you with Montgomery and Gibbs. I expect they're going to lean on the run and try to grind things out. Their DL, particularly Hutchinson, can generate pressure, so the OL is going to need to show up big time. I think offensively we can pressure them. As good as Detroit has been, they're a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde team sometimes. Coming off that Bears loss, I expect Campbell to have them really fired up and motivated, but they've been trending downwards.

I hate not being optimistic, but I do think this is going to be a tough game for us to win. If this was a home game, I would 100% expect a win, but going on the road vs. a good team with a strong run game is a scary proposition even if DET is prone to some letdowns.

Lions 23

Broncos 20

[AnAngryAmerican]

What's helpful for us about the game being flexed to Saturday night is that we don't have the dreaded 11am kickoff. Look how lethargic we looked against Houston two weeks ago. Those 11am games have always been tough for us, even in the SB years. 

Detroit's run game does concern me, as does Sam LaPorta, who's really burst onto the scene this year. ARSB is a legit stud at WR, let's hope Vance will matchup PS2 on him for most, if not all, of the game. Try to make the Lions' offense one-dimensional. I do like the way we matchup against their defense, this could be a high-output game for us scoring wise if Sean can scene around Russ' limitations. 

I'm feeling really confident about our chances. Detroit is going to be hungry after laying an egg in Chicago on Sunday, and they have something to play for, unlike San Diego who this last week you could tell have already checked out on the season.

I'll go Denver 27, Detroit 23. 

[Broncofan]

This is a pivotal matchup for the season, and we are catching the Lions at their most vulnerable.   Just there are a lot of matchup problems for us this week that the LAC game didn't offer, similar to HOU, but in inverse fashion:

DET O vs. our D

-I said that HOU's O was a real problem because their QB was elite, and their OL did a good job of protection.   With DET, the OL is elite (big diff if they don't have Frank Ragnow, though, so that's worth watching).   What's different is their run game is the big hammer.   Honestly, when their OL starters are in there, I think they have the best run game in the league (all due respect to us, San Fran & BAL).    And they can beat you inside with David Montgomery, or in space with Jaymyr Gibbs.   So yes, they can run the ball 35x and not lose anything.    I still am amazed that CLE didn't go this route vs. us 2 weeks ago - I can't believe that OC Ben Johnson would be that foolish.   That's a big problem for us.

-The Lions have limited pass catching weapons in their WR/TE corps, but what a pair they have in Amon-Ra St. Brown and TE Sam Laporta.   Because they move the Sun God all around, I expect he'll get his touches, and I fully expect Laporta will get featured, given how much trouble we have vs. the TE.    Jameson Williams is still learning, but he's one to look out for (just super raw technique).    Our old former player, Khalif Raymond, has done a decent job of hanging around as their #3 WR this year with Williams learning.   Josh Reynolds is the type of WR we usually can control.    

-Our pass rush will have to find a way - because Jared Goff at home with good pass pro, is a problem.   On the road or against fierce pressure is where he wilts.    I'd be downright shocked if the Lions did not use Gibbs in the pass game this week, given how much trouble we have with RB's in coverage.   

Our O vs. their D 

-DET's run D is very good, 7th in DVOA (it's the pass game where they struggle).   Obviously we lean on the run game, this is a tough matchup, because it's strength vs. strength.   If Meinerz doesn't play, that's a much tougher path to take.  He really is our Quentin Nelson for our OL (past peak version, not the current one).

-Their pass D is very much their weakness (19th by DVOA), and they are vulnerable to WR's.  So yes, it means both Sutton & Jeudy have great spots.    As much as Jeudy's game last week was abysmal, if the run D stifles our run O, we need to have pretty big games from both - and we need Russell Wilson to be better than he was against LAC (no Justin Herbert, no WR's, no run game, easy layup match).    We shouldn't shy away from who we are, but if the Lions run D stands up to our run game, it's the obvious area where we need to succeed.

-The pass rush with DET is all about Aidan Hutchinson.  It's kinda shocking they didn't go harder after Chase Young, because Hutchinson really doesn't even have a Robin to his Batman.   Still, we absolutely struggled vs. LV when all they had was Maxx Crosby, so we should be mindful of this.

-Like the others, I really liked what I saw from Lucas Krull last week - but this is a tougher TE matchup, with Brian Branch & Jack Campbell helping their TE defense, they're a top 5 D against TE's.   Much like boundary WR, though - they struggle agaisnt RB's.   I'd look to see if our run game struggles, the screen game / swing passes get used more for both Javonte Williams, Jaleel Mclaughlin & Samaji Perine. 

 

 

Coaching/Intangibles

-One way where we may find more success in the run game - if we can control ToP by getting their O off the field.   DET's used to having the ball for 30-35 mins a game when they're succeeding with the run, they do wear out when their O can't stay on the field.    The 2 CHI L's where they gave up 140+ & 180+ rush yds - the D was on the field for 34+ & 40+ mins.  Something to look out for 

-Hey, we're facing a good team and we have a marked ST edge!   #4 in the league, vs. #17.   It's kinda refreshing and weird at the same time to type this.

-One area where we enjoyed a MASSIVE edge last week - coaching.   Brandon Staley going for it 2x with his depleted O and a 0-0 game and 7-0 game was crazy (metrics are very useful, but you have to factor in what your O is doing).   This week, Dan Campbell uses the same kind of naked aggression - but unlike LAC, DET has a ton of diverse weapons that makes going for it far more viable.   This week, it's OC Ben Johnson, who's one of the top HC candidates, so it's not nearly so much of an edge.  And Campbell's really managed clock / in-game decisions in other areas quite well (he's really progressed every year since the "bite your kneecap" viral interview).   This coaching matchup is worth watching for who gives their team the edge this week.

-Stating the obvious, but TO's likely are the big fulcrum.  If Goff plays ball-control and avoids the TO's, we're in trouble, especially if Russ keeps making mistakes.   If we can get +1 or +2 in the TO margin, though, that helps wear down their excellent run D, and our O can exploit their pass D and tired run D.

 

As always, unless I think the QB is so flawed I can safely say multiple TO's are coming, I'll go with a TO-neutral call.   And with a TO-neutral game, have to give the Lions the edge at home, with their run game & amazing OL & top 2 skill guys, and no give-away edge on their coaching side.    Still, the spread's too wide (+5, should be more like +2 to +3).    I'll call a 24-20 game for DET.   Should be really fun - sadly, I have a Xmas party for my wife's friends, so I will have to be sneaking peeks on the phone until halftime (lol).

Edited December 13, 2023 by Broncofan

[The Helicopter]

I could see us losing this game so long as we are in it and competitive. But this is the only remaining game that should be close. We may be looking at a 10-7 season...seems unreal after that Miami game.

Edited December 12, 2023 by The Helicopter

[grizmo78]

I don't think this game is necessarily must win in terms of our playoff chances given it isn't a conference game (the tie breaker if we are tied with multiple teams for the wild card). It is a must win for our division title hopes as the tiebreaker, assuming we have the same division record as the Chiefs, would go to common opponents. We're currently up one game after their loss to the Bills. That said it's hard to see the Chiefs losing one of the Raiders at home or the Herbert-less Chargers or two of those games and the Patriots + Bengals. 

[AnAngryAmerican]

Meinerz was listed as a "full" participant in practice today, that's a great sign moving forward on a short week. 

[Broncofan]

5 minutes ago, AnAngryAmerican said:

Meinerz was listed as a "full" participant in practice today, that's a great sign moving forward on a short week. 

It was covered in the LAC thread - but he's almost certainly going to be allowed to practice, even if he doesn't get cleared to play.   Glasgow was allowed to practice in 2021 the entire week, but wasn't cleared to play full contact until the week after.   It's for sure a good sign, but it's not definitive yet that he's cleared.   To say it has a huge impact either way is an understatement.  

Edited December 12, 2023 by Broncofan

[MontanaBronco]

Dulcich was designated to return from IR today. Doubt he plays this week but could be nice to have him down the stretch 

[grizmo78]

On 12/13/2023 at 9:41 PM, MontanaBronco said:

Dulcich was designated to return from IR today. Doubt he plays this week but could be nice to have him down the stretch 

Hurt his foot first day practicing. I'm expecting he's shut down for the year. 

[French Fan]

2 hours ago, grizmo78 said:

Hurt his foot first day practicing. I'm expecting he's shut down for the year. 

We can perhaps also think that he will no longer be on the roster next year. He spent more time injured than on the field. He had already fallen in the draft due to his injuries.

[jsthomp2007]

8 hours ago, grizmo78 said:

Hurt his foot first day practicing. I'm expecting he's shut down for the year. 

LOL..you can't make that up.  He needs to be smashing watermelons in Larkspur at the Renaissance Festival. 

[broncos67]

8 hours ago, French Fan said:

We can perhaps also think that he will no longer be on the roster next year. He spent more time injured than on the field. He had already fallen in the draft due to his injuries.

Yeah he's gone. There's some interesting candidates in R3/R4 of the draft I'd prefer we look at. Dulcich can't stay healthy and we can't rely on him.