pgwingman Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 2024 PACKERS MOCK OFFSEASON: VERSION 2.0 (Bakh staying) OK folks, I’ve decided to look into a crystal ball to help discern the next offseason. The purpose of this mock will be to discern what this team would look like if Bakh stays, which he’s openly claimed to want. If he stays, what are the costs for both sides? CAP SITUATION Spotrac currently lists the Packers with $6M in 2024 cap, with 40 players signed. Green Bay Packers Roster Manager | Spotrac (It shows 42, but Savage and Nixon are on void year deals and will be UFAs). Presumably Whelan will be a tendered punter for a $1M. 41 Players signed. Projected cap $5M available now. Overthecap is predicting $16M for the 2024 draft class (11 total picks: 7 original picks, Jets 2nd round, Bills 3rd, minus 5th rounder, 3 comp picks). NFL Draft Resources and Contract Estimates (overthecap.com)[-$11M available, 52 players signed]. The last guy would be a million. So -$12M cap going into the season with 53 signed. The team probably needs another $7M going into the season for extensions/signings. So a total of $19M needed before next season, before any signings are made. For the record, this is same number Ken Ingalls has calculated on twitter as well. So what are the other options to free up cap space? Well, here’s the candidates: Player 2024 Cap Hit 2024 Base Salary (Roster Bonus) Max. Restructure w/Voids Avail. via release Dead Cap if Released/ Traded Wingmans “pay cut estimate” Aaron Jones $18M $11M $11M $5M $12M $5M David Bakhtiari $40M $11M ($10M) No chance $20M $19M $7M Elgton Jenkins $14M $4M ($5M) $6M $0 $14M - Kenny Clark $27M $15M $11M $3M $24M - Preston Smith $17M $6M ($5M) $6M $3M $14M - De’Vondre Campbell $14M $7M ($3M) $6M $3M $11M - Jaire Alexander $24M $7M ($8M) $9M -$3M $27M - Royce Newman $3M $3M - $2M $0M - Wingman’s take: With Dillon set to reach UFA, I’d hate to release Jones as well. I’d also hate to restructure him, his dead cap hit is already $12M and this team is done pushing out cap hits. I’d argue his open market value is $6M, so that’s what I’d offer him (his base salary is $11M, so his $6M contract would be a net $5M savings). In the end, you save as much by cutting Jones as you do with a pay cut. ($14M over the cap) Bakh is currently on the roster in 2024, scheduled for a $40M cap hit ($19M dead). The Packers will be desperate for his $20M in savings ($40M cap hit-$19M dead-$1M replacement). However, he has stated that he’d like to come back and play for the Packers. I’m just speculating here, but I’m guessing that his “open market” value is something like $10M or less. So if I’m Gute, I’m sitting down Bakh and saying this: Listen, if we cut you, you’re worth $10M to the Chargers. If you stay here, we’ll pay you your $10M roster bonus plus vet minimum and some change, $2M ($12M total). That’s more than you’d make playing somewhere else, and you’d save us $7M. If your knee looks good and you play well, then we’ll talk about what it’ll take to keep you a Packer for life. Is $12M too high for one year of Bakh? ($7M over the cap) Jenkins’s restructure makes some sense, but I’ll leave it be for now. Kenny Clark probably already wants a new deal, and he’s largely worth it. I’ll extend him at the going rate, while rolling half of his current salary into signing bonus (another $7M saved, now $0M under the cap) Preston’s play is good, but he’s somewhat redundant with Lukas Van Ness, so I see him as a trade candidate. Cutting him before free agency saves $11M but incurs a $14M dead cap hit. Given his talent and age, he’s probably fairly priced, so not worth more than a very late round pick. For now, I’ll keep him here. Regarding Campbell, I’m hoping a season with a new coordinator does him some good. Cutting him doesn’t do you much good this year, but his play has dipped enough to make me concerned about pushing out cap hits. Jaire’s restructure makes some sense. I’ll roll his roster bonus into signing bonus ($6M more saved, now $6M under) Royce Newman is a cut for me. Even though he’s under contract for a million, he’s actually due $2M in Proven Performance Escalators, which largely come from his snap counts his rookie year. (Now $8M under the cap.) DEPARTURES (with anticipated annual value, in case you want to swap out a player) Offense: Jon Runyan($3M), Yosh Nijman, Josiah Deguara, Patrick Taylor Defense: Keisean Nixon($5M), Darnell Savage($7M), Rudy Ford ($3M) Special Teams: Robert Rochell, Eric Wilson, Tyler Davis, Corey Ballentine SPENDING The extra draft picks and cap situation pretty much guarantee limited free agent spending. For the sake of this mock, I’ll wager that we resign AJ Dillon ($5M) and Jonathon Owens ($2M). Owens seems like a relative bargain to Savage, and I’d hate to see the entire safety room depleted if Savage, Owen, and Ford leave. Dillon is something of a surprise resign, but he’s still only 25 and I think his future is longer than Jones’s. 2024 ROSTER OUTLOOK Pos. ‘22 ‘23 ‘24 Pos. ‘22 ‘23 ‘24 QB 2 2 2 Love, Clifford DT 3 4 4 Clark, Wyatt, Slaton, Brooks RB 3 3 2 Jones, (Dillon) DE 3 1 1 Wooden WR 6 6 6 Wat, Reed, Doubs, Wicks, Toure, Heath EDGE 5 5 5 Smith, Gary, LVN, Enagbare, Cox TE 4 4 3 Musgrave, Kraft, Sims ILB 3 5 3 Campbell, Quay, McDuffie C 2 1 1 Myers CB 6 5 5 Alex, Stokes, Valentine, Kyu Blu G 4 4 2 Jenkins, Newman, Rhyan S 4 5 3 Anderson, AJJ, (Owens) T 5 5 4 Bakh, Tom, Walker, Tenuta K 1 1 1 Carlson P 1 1 1 Whelan (tendered) LS 1 1 1 Orzech 2024 Current Total = 44 NFL DRAFT NFL Draft Resources and Contract Estimates (overthecap.com) A note, Packers have 11 picks and the third most draft capital to use per overthecap, behind the Bears and Cards Major Needs = S4, OG3, EDGE5 Minor Needs = RB3, TE4, ILB4, CB5, OT5, OG4, ILB5, S5 2025 Notes = Bakh, Myers, Stokes, Jones all to become free agents. This would be the draft to try and replace them. Draft strategy: Coming up with a list of “needs” is somewhat hard. Replacing (or having leverage against) 2025 free agents would seem just as important as a “major” need. I’d lean toward replacing Jones and Myers, as well as pushing to replace Preston and Campbell -Packers receive 4th and two 6th round comp picks, projected by Overthecap -Packer receive the Jets second round pick, Bills 3rd round pick ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ROUND 1, PICK 11 OVERALL: Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama Logic: This secondary scares me a bit. Valentine seems like a nice CB3, Stokes is an unknown in a contract year. You can’t have too many DBs. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ROUND 2, PICK 7, 39 OVERALL: Troy Fautanu, T/G Washington Logic: Competes with Rhyan for Runyan’s spot. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ROUND 2, PICK 11, 43 OVERALL: Edgerrin Cooper, ILB, Texas A&M Logic: Quay is hot and cold, and I want someone to push for Campbell’s spot so we can move off his contract in 2025. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ROUND 3, PICK 11, 75 OVERALL: Javon Bullard, S, Georgia Logic: Need more depth in the room. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ROUND 3, PICK 18, 82 OVERALL: Kiran Amegadji, T/G, Yale Logic: Another lineman with positional versatility. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ROUND 4, PICK 8, 108 OVERALL: Jahdae Barron, S, Texas Logic: Need more depth in the room ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ROUND 4, PICK 36, 135 OVERALL: Ray Davis, HB, Kentucky Logic: Third down back. Learns the rope from Jones and takes over next year. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (remaining picks ignored, but safe to say they go toward minor needs) CONCLUDING THOUGHTS The main purpose of the mock was to mock out the cap constraints Gute faces going into the 2024 season if Bakh stays. Honestly, it could be a moot point if Rasheed Walker continues playing well enough (per PFF, he’s been playing as good as Tom over the last 4 weeks). Given the Packers cap constraints, $12M for Bakh looks like a “marginal” upgrade, and that doesn’t take into account the injury risk. I think I’d much rather draft backups for Tom and Walker and then see what happens. Comment below with your thoughts. Thank you for reading. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coachbuns Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 Nice work. Like to see mock drafts and the perspectives they bring. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packerraymond Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 Good work @pgwingman just wanted to help you with one thing, the rule of 53 lessens the blow of signing your draft class as the late round picks are pretty much free and each earlier pick you can subtract a guy making the minimum so you usually save around a 1m a pick. Last year cost us a little under 9m in cap space, this year should be about 10m if we stay around pick 11, less if we win more. Also a guy like Whelan is free for that reason too. We should have a bit of money for Gute to play with the UFA pool depending on what happens with Bakh and Jones and how much he's willing to restructure Jaire, Jenkins, Gary, etc... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brit Pack Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 Really good work and well thought out. My only thing is I don't want to draft defence again. Ever!!! Well at least in the 1st round or the 2nd or the 3rd. Let's just load up this offence and see what a new DC can do with the talent we already got. In 2025 go out and get defence talent like we did when we got the Smith's and Amos Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Guy Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 (edited) I voted for Rasheed starting and a mid-round pick backing him up. I actually think we could go T in round 2 with the Jets pick though. Rasheed would still start. Edited December 24, 2023 by Old Guy 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coachbuns Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 They have a 1st, 2-2nds, 2-3rds and you only want offense only?! Where are you going to put them? The Packers have 2 very nice young TE's and 3-4 good young WR's. GB will need a RB or two which can be drafted basically anywhere and a couple of OL should be drafted. If MHJ drops down, sure but other than that, what WR's would help or want? The defense has holes all over .. safety, slot and reg. corner, ilb and d line. Draft the best available 5 players of those spots and fill in with the other 6 picks. They can utilize cap $$ to snag a player or two in 2024 and then in 2025, really go after free agency if needed to really fill out the team. A good "NEW" d coordinator can/could make a huge difference. All one has to do is look at Minn, Carolina and Jets for their results this year to see how that works. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Guy Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 40 minutes ago, coachbuns said: They have a 1st, 2-2nds, 2-3rds and you only want offense only?! Where are you going to put them? The Packers have 2 very nice young TE's and 3-4 good young WR's. GB will need a RB or two which can be drafted basically anywhere and a couple of OL should be drafted. If MHJ drops down, sure but other than that, what WR's would help or want? The defense has holes all over .. safety, slot and reg. corner, ilb and d line. Draft the best available 5 players of those spots and fill in with the other 6 picks. They can utilize cap $$ to snag a player or two in 2024 and then in 2025, really go after free agency if needed to really fill out the team. A good "NEW" d coordinator can/could make a huge difference. All one has to do is look at Minn, Carolina and Jets for their results this year to see how that works. He drafted a CB, 2 S and ILB? Not sure what you are seeing. He also got a couple of offensive linemen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pgwingman Posted December 24, 2023 Author Share Posted December 24, 2023 16 hours ago, Packerraymond said: Good work @pgwingman just wanted to help you with one thing, the rule of 53 lessens the blow of signing your draft class as the late round picks are pretty much free and each earlier pick you can subtract a guy making the minimum so you usually save around a 1m a pick. Last year cost us a little under 9m in cap space, this year should be about 10m if we stay around pick 11, less if we win more. Also a guy like Whelan is free for that reason too. We should have a bit of money for Gute to play with the UFA pool depending on what happens with Bakh and Jones and how much he's willing to restructure Jaire, Jenkins, Gary, etc... Yeah you're right Ray. The rule of 53 does come into play here. I am simplifying a bit for the sake of ease. As far as I'm concerned, we have about 42 guys under contract now, and 11 draft picks that come in from the draft. So when you add all those together, you'll get 53 guys. To keep it simple, we already know the first 42 cap hit, and we know the total for the draft class. Obviously this team will have future deals that offset and whatnot, but I like keeping it simple and I think the math is nearly the same. I'm still convinced that we'll have to restructure most of the vet contracts this offseason just to make payroll. I'll wager that we sign no outside free agents for more than a $1-3M a year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pgwingman Posted December 24, 2023 Author Share Posted December 24, 2023 4 hours ago, Brit Pack said: Really good work and well thought out. My only thing is I don't want to draft defence again. Ever!!! Well at least in the 1st round or the 2nd or the 3rd. Let's just load up this offence and see what a new DC can do with the talent we already got. In 2025 go out and get defence talent like we did when we got the Smith's and Amos So that's why i like doing these exercises. Where could we possibly load up on offense? We'll have 1 outgoing OL (Runyan), with two more who warrant consideration for replacement (Myers, Walker) but are still on cheap contracts. There's 6 WRs and 3 TEs under cheap contracts, so I just don't see us drafting someone high just to displace a starter. Most of the expensive contracts that need replaced are on defense: Preston, Kenny, Campbell. And most the outgoing free agents (including the 2025 free agents) are on defense as well: Rudy Ford, Savage, Stokes (in 2025). For that reason, I'm guessing we don't go offense early unless it's a lineman. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pgwingman Posted December 24, 2023 Author Share Posted December 24, 2023 17 hours ago, coachbuns said: Nice work. Like to see mock drafts and the perspectives they bring. Yeah thanks, this mock really brought 2 perspectives for me. 1. This team will still have a lot of work to get under the cap 2. Bakh is the single largest contract that could be cut to create the necessary cap space. Keeping him will not be easy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coachbuns Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 8 hours ago, Old Guy said: He drafted a CB, 2 S and ILB? Not sure what you are seeing. He also got a couple of offensive linemen. Im referring to Brit Pack and his thoughts on not drafting defense ..... not the draft itself. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toddfather Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 I really like you brining up keeping Bakh, and also great work! A lot of mocks probsbly will have him an easy dump. Other things to note is he has (1) like you said stated he wanted to be back. (2) He has stated publicly about his good relationship with Gute and their communication. (3) He opened up about the genetic condition, the surgeries, and the three more he is having before another come back attempt. I wonder if there is real conversation about keeping him? He was on a HOF trajectory before the injury and he himself stated after the Chicago game he knows he can still play, but it was like playing with one hand tied behind his back. IF and I mean IF the surgeries and rehab are a success I could see that conversation you referenced in your mock being a real possibility. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pugger Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 It is so hard to vote with the choices you gave. If Bak's knee is functional again and he can play he is starting. But this is such a big IF. Before his injury he was considered one of the top LTs in the league. This is such a sad situation for the team and the player. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jleisher Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 NICE!!!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thrILL! Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 Kool Aid and Jaire would be a killer duo. Don’t see us cutting Ballentine tho. Like you said, You can’t have too many DBs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.