Russell Wilson Era ending - benched to prevent 2025 37M injury guarantee

[AKRNA]

5 hours ago, germ-x said:

What about Sean Payton makes you think that’s what he is going to or wants to do?

Given the context of my quote I'm not sure what your question is. I simply responded to @broncos67 approach to Seans tenure.

[AKRNA]

4 hours ago, germ-x said:

Who is the QB though?  I haven’t had time to pay attention to FA and the draft I know there are some top ones like Williams and Maye, but we aren’t in that category.  When Payton turned a team around he had the #2 pick in the draft and took Reggie Bush and signed Drew Brees as a free agent.  Also part of my concern is he’s gonna sell even more of the farm for a QB just to make the playoffs and then bail when it gets bad.  Similar to what he did in NO.

I haven't got a clue. How 'bout "not Russ". 

You're posting way too much speculation for me. Let's just be patient and see how Sean solves the puzzle. He's got another 5 years to do it.

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, broncosfan_101 said:

As more of a mental exercise than anything else, I’ve been wondering if the team would be able to eat the entire plate of **** that is Russ’s dead money in 2024, have a full-blown tank year, and then start from relative scratch in 2025. Taking the full hit in 2024 would put us at $68.5M over the cap. Finding trades for Bolles, Simmons (both with only one year left on their contracts), and Sutton would save us $44M. Cutting Tim Patrick is another $10M (although maybe he’s an extension candidate on a prove-it deal so we can get an even lower cap hit than his current dead number of $6.07M). Another $22M gets freed up by cutting/trading DJ Jones and Ben Powers. Trading Jeudy saves $13M. That’s $89M in savings, and I’d argue of those guys, only Jeudy is potentially on the next Broncos playoff team anyways. You might be able to get restructures from Allen and McGlinchey, too.

I don’t see anything better than a few day 3 picks coming our way for these guys, but acquiring a bunch of cheap talent to fill out the roster is the only way to make this feasible. I can talk myself into seeing the path, but what I haven’t been able to convince myself of is Sean Payton signing up for such an extensive teardown. The only possibility is for the Walmarts to play to his gigantic ego by telling him this is his chance to build an entire roster in his image from scratch. It’s a long shot, but it’s probably the shortest path to true contention in Denver. 

You can definitely eat 90M in 1 year.  It's been done, and we've got the contracts to do it.  And if you want to keep Powers & Jeudy, or Simmons & Powers, then you just restructure.    Fun fact - the top 2 teams in dead money this year - TAM & LAR, at 75M and 74M.    Yes, 2 teams that are playoff bound (doing well in the draft, and getting your QB set, kinda helps....duh).

https://www.profootballrumors.com/2023/07/2023-nfl-dead-money-by-team 

Here's the thing - you can designate Russ as a post-June 1 cut, split the 85M into 2 years - and then not use the 42.5M you pushed back into 2025, and have a 42.5M surplus from 2024.   And then you start with a clean slate.  Or you spend 10M of that 42.5M saved, and you functionally have "eaten" 75M of the 85M in 2024, and then only have 10M in dead money in 2025. 

Honestly, with restructures and voidable years, we're not going to be able to field a full roster with moderate-high priced pieces...but if we commit to just being young, and developing the youth and keeping the guys who might be around in 2025 to be real assets, and no one else, yes it can be done.   And even if we "only" eat 70-75M of the 85M, that's fine too.

The real Q will be if we're willing to really just do it, go super-young and cheap for 2024, and then we're back on track for 2025....or we got the dreaded NO route and keep kicking the can down the road.  You can do that for 3-4 years and be "OK", but you're never in full position to restock and reload.   That's the key Q we'll face this offseason.

Edited December 29, 2023 by Broncofan

[jolly red giant]

6 hours ago, Broncofan said:

You can definitely eat 90M in 1 year.  It's been done, and we've got the contracts to do it.  And if you want to keep Powers & Jeudy, or Simmons & Powers, then you just restructure.    Fun fact - the top 2 teams in dead money this year - TAM & LAR, at 75M and 74M.    Yes, 2 teams that are playoff bound (doing well in the draft, and getting your QB set, kinda helps....duh).

https://www.profootballrumors.com/2023/07/2023-nfl-dead-money-by-team 

Here's the thing - you can designate Russ as a post-June 1 cut, split the 85M into 2 years - and then not use the 42.5M you pushed back into 2025, and have a 42.5M surplus from 2024.   And then you start with a clean slate.  Or you spend 10M of that 42.5M saved, and you functionally have "eaten" 75M of the 85M in 2024, and then only have 10M in dead money in 2025. 

Honestly, with restructures and voidable years, we're not going to be able to field a full roster with moderate-high priced pieces...but if we commit to just being young, and developing the youth and keeping the guys who might be around in 2025 to be real assets, and no one else, yes it can be done.   And even if we "only" eat 70-75M of the 85M, that's fine too.

The real Q will be if we're willing to really just do it, go super-young and cheap for 2024, and then we're back on track for 2025....or we got the dreaded NO route and keep kicking the can down the road.  You can do that for 3-4 years and be "OK", but you're never in full position to restock and reload.   That's the key Q we'll face this offseason.

It can be done - but we still need a QB

Edited December 29, 2023 by jolly red giant

[Broncofan]

4 minutes ago, jolly red giant said:

It can be done - but we still need a QB

I expect we’ll be getting a Winston / Darnold FA signing to pair with Stidham.  In a true rebuild go at it cheaply.  With a 2 year deal something like 2/10M with most in year 2.  And then attack either the 2024 or 2025 draft class for the long term.    Shouldn’t  affect the cap eating measure much if at all.   I don’t see us landing a big $ FA like Cousins (nor should we IMO).  

Edited December 29, 2023 by Broncofan

[jolly red giant]

By the way - I don't care about how big a pr*ck Payton is - I would have hired him precisely because he is a pr*ck but billionaires don't become billionsires without being pr*cks and they tend to hire like-minded people. He has the job now and if he is a success in Denver then who cares how big a pr*ck he is (provided he doesn't do something like bountygate and then I would be demanding his head).

[jolly red giant]

1 minute ago, Broncofan said:

I expect we’ll be getting a Winston / Darnold FA signing to pair with Stidham.  In a true rebuild go at it cheaply.  With a 2 year deal something like 2/10M with most in year 2.  And then attack either the 2024 or 2025 draft class for the long term.    Shouldn’t  affect the cap eating measure much if at all.   I don’t see us landing a big $ FA like Cousins (nor should we IMO).  

Is it ruled out that the Bears could be enticed into a trade for PS2, this year's 1st and next years 1st (because I could see Payton doing it if it was a possibility).

[Broncofan]

16 hours ago, jolly red giant said:

Is it ruled out that the Bears could be enticed into a trade for PS2, this year's 1st and next years 1st (because I could see Payton doing it if it was a possibility).

Yeah, they aren’t trading 1.1.   And it appears they’ll pair qb with an elite draft WR at their 2nd top 10 pick with DJ Moore given the OL looks ok.   For all the bluster I expect they’ll sign Jaylon Johnson back or tag him.    PS2 isn’t really a fit in that system (his max impact is in a scheme that puts him on an island).    
 

There weren’t any teams who were willing to give up 2 1sts for PS2 at the deadline honestly it’s hard to see a team that’s playing great D with their needs and draft spot even show any interest.   

Edited December 30, 2023 by Broncofan

[jolly red giant]

By the way - it didn't make sense to me that the Broncos threatened to bench Wilson after the Chiefs game if he didn't redo his contract. That clearly came from Wilsons PR machine. The Broncos FO have pushed back on the claim.

There is no doubt that the FO asked Wilson to remove the injury guarantees - and it would be a surprise to no one that Wilson refused - but making threats about being bench don't make sense given the timing of everything and the potential impact for the future.

Edited December 29, 2023 by jolly red giant

[The Helicopter]

15 hours ago, germ-x said:

How do you envision that happening?

Through the draft

[The Helicopter]

4 hours ago, jolly red giant said:

By the way - it didn't make sense to me that the Broncos threatened to bench Wilson after the Chiefs game if he didn't redo his contract. That clearly came from Wilsons PR machine. The Broncos FO have pushed back on the claim.

There is no doubt that the FO asked Wilson to remove the injury guarantees - and it would be a surprise to no one that Wilson refused - but making threats about being bench don't make sense given the timing of everything and the potential impact for the future.

Wilson has played like hot garbage for at least 2 years. He’s atrocious. He’s lucky he got traded, he’s lucky someone was foolish enough to extend and enhance his contract, and now people are actually defending him because he’s a “good guy.” This is a business and he’s the only reason OUR (not his) FRANCHISE is screwed. How is he not being run out of town? The guy is an absolute cancer to our franchise and an embarrassment of a football player.

[Broncofan]

 

https://twitter.com/rapsheet/status/1741420266872303674?

 

So Wilson viewed the approach to push back the injury guarantee deadline  as a threat to bench him by itself?   And the NFLPA didn’t see it that way?  

That’s pretty wild spin on Russ’ part to say the appproach to push back his injury guarantee = threat to bench him.   It also explains why the NFLPA didn’t file a grievance.    

Edited December 31, 2023 by Broncofan

[broncos_fan _from _uk]

3 hours ago, Broncofan said:

 

https://twitter.com/rapsheet/status/1741420266872303674?

 

So Wilson viewed the approach to push back the injury guarantee deadline  as a threat to bench him by itself?   And the NFLPA didn’t see it that way?  

That’s pretty wild spin on Russ’ part to say the appproach to push back his injury guarantee = threat to bench him.   It also explains why the NFLPA didn’t file a grievance.    

Raps article (in your link) goes even further into depth. It’s a good read. This part was reassuring:

• When players watched film during the week of the past few games, they saw an endless string of open players that Wilson wasn't finding in time. Sure, the big-time plays in the fourth quarter were there, but finding the open guy in rhythm was an issue. Players saw it, and privately discussed it among themselves, sources say. Some have wondered the last few weeks if Stidham, who Payton signed early in free agency, would be better.

Edited December 31, 2023 by broncos_fan _from _uk

[jolly red giant]

26 minutes ago, broncos_fan _from _uk said:

Raps article (in your link) goes even further into depth. It’s a good read. This part was reassuring:

• When players watched film during the week of the past few games, they saw an endless string of open players that Wilson wasn't finding in time. Sure, the big-time plays in the fourth quarter were there, but finding the open guy in rhythm was an issue. Players saw it, and privately discussed it among themselves, sources say. Some have wondered the last few weeks if Stidham, who Payton signed early in free agency, would be better.

And it sounds like that this is coming to Rap directly from the players and not spin from the Broncos FO. 

[broncos67]

On 12/28/2023 at 11:10 PM, broncosfan_101 said:

As more of a mental exercise than anything else, I’ve been wondering if the team would be able to eat the entire plate of **** that is Russ’s dead money in 2024, have a full-blown tank year, and then start from relative scratch in 2025. Taking the full hit in 2024 would put us at $68.5M over the cap. Finding trades for Bolles, Simmons (both with only one year left on their contracts), and Sutton would save us $44M. Cutting Tim Patrick is another $10M (although maybe he’s an extension candidate on a prove-it deal so we can get an even lower cap hit than his current dead number of $6.07M). Another $22M gets freed up by cutting/trading DJ Jones and Ben Powers. Trading Jeudy saves $13M. That’s $89M in savings, and I’d argue of those guys, only Jeudy is potentially on the next Broncos playoff team anyways. You might be able to get restructures from Allen and McGlinchey, too.

I don’t see anything better than a few day 3 picks coming our way for these guys, but acquiring a bunch of cheap talent to fill out the roster is the only way to make this feasible. I can talk myself into seeing the path, but what I haven’t been able to convince myself of is Sean Payton signing up for such an extensive teardown. The only possibility is for the Walmarts to play to his gigantic ego by telling him this is his chance to build an entire roster in his image from scratch. It’s a long shot, but it’s probably the shortest path to true contention in Denver. 

I'm not opposed to this approach if we're being honest. I think there's some merit to taking a path like Houston did, for example. Just be absolutely terrible, get the picks. Hell, trade down this year and accumulate even more picks, and then go into 2025 extremely flush with options.

I don't think it's a bad idea at all and I hope we give it some consideration. Sean Payton got a good look at a number of guys on this team, and I will assume there's going to be quite a few not here next year.