2018 Draft Thread I

[big9erfan]

1 hour ago, Forge said:

I feel like he's definitely going top 10, so while my preference would be to move down slightly and get him at that 6-8 range at possible (if we are #3), which would net us that second we lost for Jimmy G, and get the guy I want, I'd be super stoked. But as you said, we could end up picking in that 6 range anyway. There are a few winnable games still left on the schedule. I don't think any of us would be super surprised if we end up at 4 wins, which is what a lot of us had the team pegged for at the start anyway. If we get 4, we could certainly pick around #6, and at that point, I'm definitely all about Nelson. But if we are at 3 and can't move down, I'm happy to take him there. If he's a legit top 10 prospect (and he's probably going to be in my top 6 or 7), then I'm fine with grabbing him at 3. 

I'm not sure if a G has ever gone at 3, but right now I'm not crazy about anyone at 3.  I wish there was a world class pass rusher coming out but I'm not sure I see any. I was on Barkeley as far back as two years ago but my assessment of him has not changed since then, I still see him as only worth a pick in the latter half of the first. So pending looking at things next winter I wouldn't be opposed to Nelson at 3.

[Forge]

4 minutes ago, big9erfan said:

I'm not sure if a G has ever gone at 3, but right now I'm not crazy about anyone at 3.  I wish there was a world class pass rusher coming out but I'm not sure I see any. I was on Barkeley as far back as two years ago but my assessment of him has not changed since then, I still see him as only worth a pick in the latter half of the first. So pending looking at things next winter I wouldn't be opposed to Nelson at 3.

A couple of guys in that 5-7 range, but I can't think of anyone in the top 3. That being said, I'd say that guard play is more important now than it ever has been. Previously, guard wasn't seen as a position that had the value of even a right tackle, to be honest.  I think he'll be one of the best players in this draft, and he'd fill a huge need, so I love the fit. But I wouldn't mind defense with that pick. Still a lot of time to go, too. 

[big9erfan]

I agree that guard play might be under-valued, and that we badly need an upgrade of our interior line.  The other thing about interior linemen is that if you hit on one they can often contribute for a lot of years like Staley had. Having said that I still think the ranking of postional value is QB far, far higher than any other position, and then pass rusher far higher than everything else. After that I'm not sure.

[Forge]

36 minutes ago, big9erfan said:

I agree that guard play might be under-valued, and that we badly need an upgrade of our interior line.  The other thing about interior linemen is that if you hit on one they can often contribute for a lot of years like Staley had. Having said that I still think the ranking of postional value is QB far, far higher than any other position, and then pass rusher far higher than everything else. After that I'm not sure.

Yeah, I rate pass rush / offensive line about the same, but definitely those three far and away the biggest for me when it comes to positional value. 

[Fureys49ers]

I feel pretty good in our ability to move down even if QBs go 1 and 2 with us picking at 3. Chubb and Barkley should be pretty big targets for some teams looking to add a playmaker on offense or add, who I think, is the best pass rusher this year. With that said I don’t want to drop out of the top 10. I like @Forge‘s idea of taking Nelson early and making OL a priority fix. If he by chance is gone by our new pick, somewhere in the top 10 still, there are still guys I feel we could add at areas of need. Minkah Fitzpatrick, Arden Key, Harold Landry, Derwin James, Clellin Ferrell, Denzel Ward, Tarvaris McFadden, Isaiah Oliver, one of the OTs, possibly even another trade down with another team looking for a QB who’s still remaining. 

Edit : All that said and I forgot to mention the reason I came here haha. A WR who has had very good statistical production this year with nice size who has caught my eye is Anthony Johnson on Buffalo who’s playing right now if anyone is interested to take a look.

[big9erfan]

I just noticed that Weston RIchburg from the Giants is a FA next year.  Since we need to build the team from the draft with a few FAs mixed him about Taking a shot at him. I think he's a good center and is the kind of FA I'm interested in since he'd just be starting his 5th year and could hopefully give us another 5-6 good years.  Maybe sign him and draft Nelson.Plus maybe Garnett comes on big time and provides an upgrade at the other G spot.  Presto! O-line problems solved, Then we can spend our other high picks filling a lot of the other holes we have.

[Geek]

What do you guys think of Chubb playing LEO? I watched all the top pass rusher tape outside of Ferrell (I'll get to him soon) and the only one I like with a top 5 pick is Chubb.

Also I'm down for Nelson if we trade back but I'd rather have Chubb in the top.

[big9erfan]

I love Chubb.  He's a wrecker out there.  But I'm having a hard time buying a 280 pound Leo.  Arden Key or Harold Landry are more the right fit. I worry about their production though.  THey both flash some ability but also seem to get handled pretty easily sometimes.  A guy I like in the second, maybe we could pick up with the NO pick, is Ogbonnia Okoronkwo. Not sure he'll turn into a pro bowler, but I'm pretty convinced he's way better than anyone we've got now.

[big9erfan]

watching Rosen and Darnold today.  Have finally concluded that Darnold should stay for another year.  I think his upside is enormous, but also think he just doesn't look ready yet.

Side comment - I don't think I've ever even heard of a fake punt return, let alone seen one executed.  USC pulled it over for a TD.  If you haven't seen it yet try to find it.  It's worth watching.

[Forge]

1 hour ago, big9erfan said:

watching Rosen and Darnold today.  Have finally concluded that Darnold should stay for another year.  I think his upside is enormous, but also think he just doesn't look ready yet.

Problem is, there's no reason for him to go back from a football standpoint. If he loves the college experience, maybe thats a factor, but otherwise he'd be foolish to go back. 

[rudyZ]

9 hours ago, Forge said:

Problem is, there's no reason for him to go back from a football standpoint. If he loves the college experience, maybe thats a factor, but otherwise he'd be foolish to go back. 

If Trubisky got drafted #2, then I don't see any reason why Darnold wouldn't go 1 or 2 if he came out this year, even if he's not ready. You just don't risk it when your value is this high, you declare.

[rudyZ]

11 hours ago, big9erfan said:

Side comment - I don't think I've ever even heard of a fake punt return, let alone seen one executed.  USC pulled it over for a TD.  If you haven't seen it yet try to find it.  It's worth watching

The Rams pulled one off with Tavon Austin and Stedman Bailey a few years ago. 

[Forge]

1 hour ago, rudyZ said:

If Trubisky got drafted #2, then I don't see any reason why Darnold wouldn't go 1 or 2 if he came out this year, even if he's not ready. You just don't risk it when your value is this high, you declare.

Exactly. Daniel Jeremiah just polled 5 execs regarding Rosen v Darnold, and all 5 said the latter. He's likely going very high

[big9erfan]

Well I've had Darnold ahead of Rosen all year.  And I guess he won't go any worse than 2nd this year and probably first. So I guess there's no point in going back.   Doesn't change the fact that it looks like he would benefit from another year of regular play at the college level.  Rosen has grown on me and I think it's closer than I used to think.  Then again there's soemehing about the fierce competitiveness that Mayfield shows that I like.  He's becoming more and more of a jerk, or at least showing more and more what a jerk he is.  But that guy can ball. To me he he looks far better than Rudolph, Falk, Allen or whoever else people have talked about as potential first rounders.

[Forge]

4 minutes ago, big9erfan said:

Well I've had Darnold ahead of Rosen all year.  And I guess he won't go any worse than 2nd this year and probably first. So I guess there's no point in going back.   Doesn't change the fact that it looks like he would benefit from another year of regular play at the college level.  Rosen has grown on me and I think it's closer than I used to think.  Then again there's soemehing about the fierce competitiveness that Mayfield shows that I like.  He's becoming more and more of a jerk, or at least showing more and more what a jerk he is.  But that guy can ball. To me he he looks far better than Rudolph, Falk, Allen or whoever else people have talked about as potential first rounders.

I always wonder if an additional year in college would help....it's so hard to know. Is it better to go back to school, play well against inferior competition without the coaching that you're going to get in the NFL, or is it better to go to the NFL, play terribly for a bad team but get used to the NFL competition, learn from the coaching, etc? I don't know that there's a way to know that one way or the other, and I suppose it can also be player specific. I wish there was some way to know though. There are definitely players who could benefit from going back, and given Darnold's lack of overall experience at the quarterback position, he could certainly fall into that category. The guys I usually want to go back are the ones who lack experience - not really to fix problems (problems are seldom fixed), but just for the experience. I don't think that Darnold's ball placement is going to get any better with another year, but experience with different situations could certainly better prepare him. 

I like Rosen, though he's more limited than some of the guys coming out, and I think that's what he gets hit on. Last month Allbright said that NFL teams weren't as high on him as draftnik types, and the poll by Jeremiah would seem to support that, though 5 NFL execs isn't much of a sample size. What's really interesting to me is that all of the top quarterbacks in this draft have such different major issues. It's actually pretty fascinating. I'd definitely have him higher than the other guys you mention - though I'm not sure who's talking Falk as a potential first rounder. I'm not sure that guy is draftable. A physically limited passer who has been benched and outperformed by his backup multiple times in his senior season does nothing to dispel the notion that he's nothing more than a system quarterback playing for a head coach who's most notable for having a system that carries the quarterback. Rudolph is an interesting guy - I've made my thoughts known on him. I'd have him ranked likely lower than Clayton Thorson, who appears to be leaning toward declaring if the rumors are true, and probably a mid round 3 type guy. But I think as recently as a couple of weeks ago, CBS has had him as their number 1 prospect....overall. That to me is crazy. I've seen WF quote sources that some NFL guys consider him a mid round type, and I've seen a ton of places treat him as the top quarterback in the draft. Such a huge disparity in the views of him its amazing. I do expect someone to take him in the first if he handles the draft season okay. Mayfield deserves a lot of praise for his play this year, but the guy is kind of a tool (arrest this off season, the baylor incident, this latest issue against Kansas - I don't think this stuff is better than Rosen's personality questions) and he's going to face questions about his physical limitations (sub 6' maybe?), though in his defense, smaller quarterbacks don't have the worst track record in the NFL, and I'd say its' even better than of super tall (6'6 and above) quarterbacks, the best of whom is probably Joe Flacco. 

Then you have Allen and Jackson. These two probably have the highly pure upside. But both have some serious questions regarding their play. Jackson probably has the higher floor due to being able to succeed in some regard with his legs, but both of them have amazingly high ceilings. Allen's injury may hinder his stock some this season. but I don't think the on the field production will ding him as much as it should given how bad he's been at times. I still see a shot at first round, but he could have a similar situation to Kizer last year.