Forge Posted December 3, 2017 Author Share Posted December 3, 2017 2 hours ago, rudyZ said: I nominate John for the 2017 Don't argue with y2 because he'll come back with a long post filled with stats award. We haven't had one of those in a while from @y2lamanaki. This forum has become far too friendly and of one mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John232 Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 54 minutes ago, Forge said: We haven't had one of those in a while from @y2lamanaki. This forum has become far too friendly and of one mind For me it was Oldman holding the hill against the Alex Smith nay-sayers. Those conversations never ended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burlow Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 2 hours ago, John232 said: For me it was Oldman holding the hill against the Alex Smith nay-sayers. Those conversations never ended. before that we had the who to draft, Rodgers/Smith. That was a good time too. On the current debate I am of the persuasion that we do not draft Saquon Barkley in the first round, if he lasts till the second (saints pick) we can grab him there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rudyZ Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 11 hours ago, John232 said: lol. ALL that said, I would rather we not spend a top 5 pick on him. If we traded back and Nelson was nabbed for whatever reason, I would really want us to go after him. He would be a picture perfect scheme fit for us. I know that shanny's might not like investing high picks into RB's, but with the evolution of the modern passing game, having a guy like Barkley who might already possess elite receiving skills is a huge huge plus. Picture Barkley doing what Hyde is doing in the receiving game, his numbers would be huge. I'm anxious to see how Jimmy works with the RBs. We know Kyle likes to do it. I know they do it a lot in NE. Now, if Jimmy can just be more accurate when throwing short passes than CJ has been, and we might see an even greater contribution from Hyde. Barkley... personally, I like him, but I just don't see it happening. As you mentioned, it's in the Shanahan DNA. Why draft a RB in the top 10 when you can get probowl production from a 6th rounder or a FA? Next year, even if we don't get Hyde back, I wouldn't be surprised if Shanahan got the running game going with just Breida, Williams and whatever rookie or FA we might land. What we really need is a #1 receiver. If possible, someone who's tall and can win jump balls. And we need an OL. Just like you mentioned, Barkley is doing what he can behind a terrible OL and no support. What would be the point of drafting him just to be stuck behind an equally bad line... I hope Barkley goes somewhere and he has a good, respectable career. Just not one of those hall of fame, why did we pass up on him kind of career. Although, even then, it wouldn't keep me awake at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
y2lamanaki Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 On 12/1/2017 at 11:07 PM, big9erfan said: We all have our opinions. I know his line isn't good and maybe that explains some of what I commented on. But it doesn't change the fact that's he been unproductive on a HUGE percentage of all of his runs. I'm just not sure what you've seen to make you think he's one of the best backs you've seen. I just gave a detailed description of 7 full games in which he had one good run in 5 of them, none in the other two and outside of those five runs he had over 100 carries for about 200 yards. I didn't do this reaerach on Zeke or Fournette but I'd be amazed to find that either of them had only one good run in a game and then next to nothing on all the rest of their carries. I'm not talking aouut total rushing yards but about how a running attack consisting of one breakaway run and then a dozen, or up to 20, more for next to nothing does not make a running attack work. In fact that kind of running hurts the passing game too because instead of 2nd and 5 or 6 a team has 2nd and 10 or 11, and that's whole lot harder. A lot of runs for little or no gain is a killer for an offense. In addition to the 7 games I already mention you can add in Maryland, where he had a 17 yard run and then 15 other runs for 60 yards - not bad but nowhere near great. He was decent against Pit with 88 yards (contining the theme with a single 22 yard run and then a pretty ordinary 13 for 65.). But that makes and 8th and 9th games that were merely OK, nowhere near great. So what does that leave? He had a good game against Nebraska who isn't even in the top 100 rushing defenses in the country. He had a good game against Akron, but Akron? That leaves exactly one good game against a good defense all year. That was his game against Iowa. Maybe you saw him in that one, or maybe the Nebraska or Akron games? Because in the other 9 games he didn't look, to me at least, close to being in the same class as some of the other good runner to come out in the past few years. I have no idea why you'd be amazed, given that the bolded is true of just about every running back (and was often an argument used against Frank Gore, no less). That said, I want nothing to do with Barkley and cannot imagine why others think drafting him would be a good decision when we have a running back staff known for its ability to get a lot out of lower-pedigree backs. We need an offensive line, not a running back. (Signed the biggest fan of running backs) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
big9erfan Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 18 hours ago, John232 said: And again, who's fault is this?Penn states god awful QB and Line play or their archaic wild-cat/triple option offense. And how is it Barkley's fault that their best receiving option is a TE and himself? This seems to be the crux of your argument as to why you think he's not a special prospect. I think there is a strong case to be made that the "consistent" run games that you alluded too (below), where a back is chipping away for 5 or 6 yards a pop has more to do with the line than the back. Now, that's not say I disagree with your assessment of Fournette or Zeke. I woudl agree with those statements on them. I would love to see a game ( not that i'm asking you to provide this, genuinely curious) where a back was consistently hitting 4 or 5 yards per rush, not in average, but multiple rushes getting 4 or 5 yards (which is what you want), and see HOW they did it. I would bet money that is/was as a result of the running backs line and the back not being a flaming retard/Kevan Barlow. Honestly? Off the top of my head, Gore is the only guy who did that consistently for years, and he's going to be in the HOF. This is always tricky because it becomes our amateur interpretations of what we see. (this could apply for the above retort as well) Because what I see when I watch is a a 230 pound back with elite speed, cutting, balance ( super elite when considering his size), receiving and blocking. With very good power and vision. This Regularly shows up on Film. Compared to, Fournette, with insane power and balance, would regularly slam into the backs of his offensive lineman instead of waiting for holes to develop. He gets away with this because he's a physical freak. Or Cook who had elite vision, balance, 3rd down skills and cutting ability but doesn't really have elite power or elite speed (albeit above average in both of these). This was hardly detailed, and it's a Cherry Picking fallacy since you're omitting the best part of these "disappointing" games for him. Games where h breaks huge runs to "make up" his yards, so to speak, but holding the negatives against him when there could be a litany of factors contributing to these poor statistical outputs. Furthermore, you've completely ignored his receiving ability, which is a huge part of his game, a huge omission, especially when the whole basis of your argument is based not just on volume stats, but specifically as it pertains to the output of a series of runs within a specific point in each of those aforementioned games. Again, not taking into account game flow, receiving, defense being played, and in general situation football. in fact, I would say that a guy who is able to consistently bust for a huge plays is actually a GOOD thing. Not something to be held against him. Hyde is great at consistently getting yards, but the guy rarely bursts huge runs down the field. And honestly, I get tired of it. He helps the offense a ton, but he doesn't have that ability to take a run 75 yards in the blink of an eye. Barkley has shown that time, and time, and time again. Statistically speaking, Barkley has had 3 games with under a 4.0 ypc and in two of those games, he had pretty good receiving numbers. Of those three games, One of those games was against Ohio State who probably has the most talented defense in the country outside of Bama. I watched that game. it was ugly and in no way indicative of Barkley because OSU was bursting through the line all game. Again, be The Rutgers game ( I did not watch, and now plan too), statistically is the only awful game I can see statistically. But that can be as a result of game-flow. Fournette for example had two awful games in his senior season against Alabama and Florida. Worse than any game Barkley put up this year. Even Zeke who put up crazy RUSHING numbers at OSU still had a bad game against michigan state and to your point, had an 80 yard run against VT which made for 66% of his yards. Which might be a solid game by your standards if you're going to take away their biggest run and hold it against them, but I still consider that pretty awesome. I also can't stress this enough, Barkley's numbers receiving>>>>>Fournette and Zeke. Also, please note the difference in the amount of carries. Barkley has had 3 games with over 20 carries this year. Zeke had 3 games UNDER 20 carries. Another missing point when you're talking about raw rushing numbers. So for example, the Pitt game. Here's what he did. (might be missing some of his returns. Lets look at the tape and see his inconsistency which hurts the run game. (11:34 - 1st) Saquon Barkley run for 3 yds to the PnSt 45 (8:03 - 1st) Saquon Barkley run for 8 yds to the PnSt 46 (7:27 - 1st) Trace McSorley pass complete to Saquon Barkley for no gain to the PnSt 46 https://youtu.be/cU2if70vnFk?t=74 (6:04 - 1st) Saquon Barkley run for 3 yds to the Pitt 15 (Makes a guy miss in the back field to get 3 yards, but 3 yards is bad) (8:35 - 2nd) Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 38 (Next time he gets the ball...game flow... guys in the backfield upon receiving the delayed hand off) https://youtu.be/cU2if70vnFk?t=101. (1:12 - 2nd) Saquon Barkley run for 11 yds to the PnSt 36 for a 1ST down End of Half (14:55 - 3rd) Saquon Barkley run for 17 yds to the PnSt 42 for a 1ST down (14:31 - 3rd) Saquon Barkley run for 11 yds to the Pitt 47 for a 1ST down (12:57 - 3rd) Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 5 yards to the Pitt 48 https://youtu.be/cU2if70vnFk?t=148 (Another awful play, hit as he gets the ball, poor blocking) (10:32 - 3rd) Trace McSorley pass complete to Saquon Barkley for 46 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK) (2:13 - 3rd) Saquon Barkley run for 22 yds to the Pitt 44 for a 1ST down PITTSBURGH Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (15 Yards) to the Pitt 41 for a 1ST down (2:04 - 3rd) Saquon Barkley run for 11 yds to the Pitt 30 for a 1ST down (0:00 - 3rd) Saquon Barkley run for 2 yds to the Pitt 8 (14:54 - 4th) Saquon Barkley run for 8 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK) (10:09 - 4th) Alex Kessman kickoff for 60 yds , Saquon Barkley return for 18 yds to the PnSt 23 (10:03 - 4th) Trace McSorley pass complete to Saquon Barkley for 3 yds to the PnSt 26 (Check down) (9:24 - 4th) Trace McSorley pass complete to Saquon Barkley for a loss of 4 yards to the PnSt 22https://youtu.be/cU2if70vnFk?t=326 (Pass thrown 6 yards behind the LOS with no blockers, hit right after catching, but again, no blocking on this screen pass) (8:09 - 4th) Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 5 yards to the PnSt 40 (They missed this carry, I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and say it was awful) (5:53 - 4th) Alex Kessman kickoff for 67 yds , Saquon Barkley return for 32 yds to the PENNST 48 PITTSBURGH Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the Pitt 40 (3:57 - 4th) Saquon Barkley run for 5 yds to the Pitt 6 So i'm not going to do this for every game with you. But this is a game you say he was ok. I just watched every touch of his with the one listed exception, I didn't a single bad thing he did outside of MAYBE...MAYBE showing a bit better vision on some of the delayed inside runs, but even then, I feel like i'm stretching to meet you half way. You're looking at box scores and not his touches. So I don't know what that leaves for you. I just grabbed one of the games you brought up, you said it was ok for him. I just watched it and he looked dominant. If stats are the basis of your argument in not only saying he's not as good a prospect as Zeke or Fournette (which is a fair opinion I might add) but not the same league, that's just narrow sighted and ignoring every other factor when analyzing a prospect. Based on the logic you just used Timmy Chang should have been considered a top QB prospect coming out of Hawaii because he has amazing numbers. Or for a more recent comparison, Mason Rudolph might be the best QB prospect since Luck. It's a joke to say he's not in the same class. I'll make the mistake of subscribing to a higher authority, But when you have multiple scouting sites like PFF, locked on, and other Guys I trust like Daniel Jeremiah all basically saying "yeah, he's uh..he's got no holes to his game"...it's comes off as hot-takish but not based in any actual research or scouting. There's a reason everyone is saying this. When you watch him play, he does amazing things with the ball in his hands. John, I've liked Barkley since the first time I ever saw him play. I probably mentioned him here sooner than almost anyone else. I like Penn State and I've probably watched more of his games over the years than almost anyone here. I've always said he is a very good back. I just don't think he is great, and I'm expressing my worries that he will not be great in the NFL. My worries are exactly whatt Forge mentioned. I see a guy just oozing raw talent - a size/speed combo hardly ever seen in one body. But I don't see a particularly skilled or runner. I've spent a decade watching Gore run into a pile of bodies at the los thinking he would get nothing only to see him disappear into the pile and end up landing 4 or 5 yards downfield. I've probably worn a bald spot on my head scratching it and thinking "how in the world does he do that?" I don't think I ever see that in Barkley. You blame his o-line while I sit here thinking great backs have to do it on their own far more often than I think he does. And another reason that I worry about him is that pure speed that leads to 60 or 70 yard runs in college often leads to 10 to 20 yard runs in the NFL wherre LBs run 4.5s and CBs run 4.4s and 4.3s. Sure his o-line will be better, but defenses wil lbe a lot better too. If you take away his longest runs and he gets next to nothing on his other runs, then what have you got? About your analysis - I mentioned 7 games in which he only had a single good run in 5 of them and next to nothing on all the rest of his runs in all 7 of those games. And I mentioned an 8th game, and then finally the Pitt game. So you're taking what I think is his 9th worst game, i.e., his 4th best and giving us a play by play. The thing is that after all the explaining why he wasn't terribly productive that day you're still left with an 88 yard game. OK, that's a nice game. But that's the kind of performance you see dozens of times every weekend. That very same weekend Dobbins had 72 yards on far fewerr carries; Scott from MSU had 86; Smith from MInnesota had 92; Wadley from Iowa had 118; Johnson from Mayland had 124 on only 5 carries; Ty Isaac from Michigan had 133; Tario FUller from Purdue had 142; and if you really want to talk about a great game Taylor from Wisconsin had 223. Is Maryland's oline good? Purdue's? Minnesota's? That makes a bunch of guys in his very own conference on that very day who were more productive than him. For a nice bit of irony he was not even the most productive RB on the field that day as the Pitt RB Ollison had 96 yards on only one more carry. And that was against Penn State who is a top 15 team in rushing defense ( barkley got his 88 against Pitt's D ranking 41sat against the run). I can see why you didn't pick any of the first 7 games that I first mentioned to do a play by play on. It would be boring as hell becuase after you detailed his best run in 5 of those games you'd be left listing over 100 otther plays that totalled barely 200 yards. There' just no way to look at a guy who over a period of 7 full games carries the ball 110 times and gets 200 yards out of 105 of of those carries as a productive back. Personally, I have a hard time seeing that kind of guy as a great back. If you want to have fun do a play by play of his carries against OSU. He had more carries for negative yards in that game than his second longest run of the day. How's that for a miserable stat? I like watching barkley and I would be happy to see him turn into a great NFL back. He certainly has the raw talent to become great. I'm just not as convinced as you that it's going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
y2lamanaki Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 9 minutes ago, big9erfan said: I like watching barkley and I would be happy to see him turn into a great NFL back. He certainly has the raw talent to become great. I'm just not as convinced as you that it's going to happen. If you want to talk about this in a Reggie Bush kind of way, I think that could be a great comparison. Because I feel Reggie's NFL career was basically the case of a supremely talented individual never progressing past his NFL floor. Like, of all the possible outcomes for Reggie Bush when he came out in 2006, the career he achieved was the lowest it was ever going to happen (short of the unpredictable major injury). I can see Barkley as that type of player - where he's successful based on sheer talent, but he never dominates like he did in college. I could see this as a real possibility for Barkley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John232 Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 3 hours ago, rudyZ said: I'm anxious to see how Jimmy works with the RBs. We know Kyle likes to do it. I know they do it a lot in NE. Now, if Jimmy can just be more accurate when throwing short passes than CJ has been, and we might see an even greater contribution from Hyde. Barkley... personally, I like him, but I just don't see it happening. As you mentioned, it's in the Shanahan DNA. Why draft a RB in the top 10 when you can get probowl production from a 6th rounder or a FA? Next year, even if we don't get Hyde back, I wouldn't be surprised if Shanahan got the running game going with just Breida, Williams and whatever rookie or FA we might land. What we really need is a #1 receiver. If possible, someone who's tall and can win jump balls. And we need an OL. Just like you mentioned, Barkley is doing what he can behind a terrible OL and no support. What would be the point of drafting him just to be stuck behind an equally bad line... I hope Barkley goes somewhere and he has a good, respectable career. Just not one of those hall of fame, why did we pass up on him kind of career. Although, even then, it wouldn't keep me awake at night. Yeah, all fair points. Part of the reason why I'd rather we go Barkley in the top ten then any receiver is: A) I don't think there's a clear first round talent at Receiver. Some real nice physical freaks though, but half of which seem to be small school, one hit wonders, unproven etc B) This class has a deep interior line and we could probably pick up a good prospect for guard/center in the second and third rounds With that said, if we drafted Minkah Fitzpatrick, Roquan Smith, Arden Key, Chubb or even Ferrell, I wouldn't object. This past year I really wanted us to grab Corey Davis but I was fine with Thomas. If we let go of Hyde and just decide to draft another back in the mid to late rounds, I won't love it, but I'll get it. Breida and another guy would seem more than capable of sharing the load. And two back backfields seem to be another favorite for Shanny, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted December 3, 2017 Author Share Posted December 3, 2017 Just now, John232 said: Yeah, all fair points. Part of the reason why I'd rather we go Barkley in the top ten then any receiver is: A) I don't think there's a clear first round talent at Receiver. Some real nice physical freaks though, but half of which seem to be small school, one hit wonders, unproven etc B) This class has a deep interior line and we could probably pick up a good prospect for guard/center in the second and third rounds With that said, if we drafted Minkah Fitzpatrick, Roquan Smith, Arden Key, Chubb or even Ferrell, I wouldn't object. This past year I really wanted us to grab Corey Davis but I was fine with Thomas. If we let go of Hyde and just decide to draft another back in the mid to late rounds, I won't love it, but I'll get it. Breida and another guy would seem more than capable of sharing the load. And two back backfields seem to be another favorite for Shanny, I don't get argument B though. Yes, interior line is deep in this draft, but the running back class is stacked as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John232 Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Just now, Forge said: I don't get argument B though. Yes, interior line is deep in this draft, but the running back class is stacked as well. Yeah, that's fair. I think my point was that we don't have to worry about missing out on our biggest need in OG if we go Barkley first. But I really wouldn't have a problem going mid round RB if we let go of Hyde. Even if we keep hyde and draft a RB in the late rounds, I'd be ok with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted December 3, 2017 Author Share Posted December 3, 2017 Just now, John232 said: Yeah, that's fair. I think my point was that we don't have to worry about missing out on our biggest need in OG if we go Barkley first. But I really wouldn't have a problem going mid round RB if we let go of Hyde. Even if we keep hyde and draft a RB in the late rounds, I'd be ok with that. I mean, in the end, we all have preferences and I don't think any of us see an issue regardless of what structure we choose to fill the holes. We all largely agree on whats needed, so at that point its just preference. I've had my wagon hitched to Nelson for a while, and some have it hitched to Barkley, then you have the weirdos like @J-ALL-DAY who like Chubb (just kidding!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
y2lamanaki Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 1 minute ago, John232 said: Yeah, all fair points. Part of the reason why I'd rather we go Barkley in the top ten then any receiver is: A) I don't think there's a clear first round talent at Receiver. Some real nice physical freaks though, but half of which seem to be small school, one hit wonders, unproven etc B) This class has a deep interior line and we could probably pick up a good prospect for guard/center in the second and third rounds With that said, if we drafted Minkah Fitzpatrick, Roquan Smith, Arden Key, Chubb or even Ferrell, I wouldn't object. This past year I really wanted us to grab Corey Davis but I was fine with Thomas. If we let go of Hyde and just decide to draft another back in the mid to late rounds, I won't love it, but I'll get it. Breida and another guy would seem more than capable of sharing the load. And two back backfields seem to be another favorite for Shanny, I am a big fan of going Nelson with the first, another OL with the 2nd, and Simmie Cobbs/Michael Gallup in the 3rd (where both now seem to be heading). I really think that's the best situation. Nelson is as can't-miss as we can get on the line, and luckily at a position where it's most desperately needed. With that, and apparently a refocused/better-conditioned Garnett, I'd be pretty happy to see what that line can do (add in another tackle or a center with that 2nd round pick). Then next year we go after one of those big-time playmakers (either at WR/RB/TE or on defense as the pass-rusher/ballhawk). I think many still need to grow accustomed to the fact that 2018 is still going to only be Year 2 of a 3-year rebuild to respectability. That's what tends to happen when in the first year of a new regime, only 13 players on the active roster are from the previous regimes (plural). And two of those are specialists. There's a real dearth of talent, and while I'm plenty satisfied with the long-term pieces this new regime has brought in thus far, there's still a LONG way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John232 Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Just now, Forge said: I mean, in the end, we all have preferences and I don't think any of us see an issue regardless of what structure we choose to fill the holes. We all largely agree on whats needed, so at that point its just preference. I've had my wagon hitched to Nelson for a while, and some have it hitched to Barkley, then you have the weirdos like @J-ALL-DAY who like Chubb (just kidding!) Man, I still have my Wagon hitched to Davis. A bit salty we didn't take him still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
y2lamanaki Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 1 minute ago, Forge said: I mean, in the end, we all have preferences and I don't think any of us see an issue regardless of what structure we choose to fill the holes. We all largely agree on whats needed, so at that point its just preference. I've had my wagon hitched to Nelson for a while, and some have it hitched to Barkley, then you have the weirdos like @J-ALL-DAY who like Chubb (just kidding!) Hey...Chubb is currently my #2 option behind Nelson. There's room to be hitched to both bandwagons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted December 3, 2017 Author Share Posted December 3, 2017 Just now, y2lamanaki said: Hey...Chubb is currently my #2 option behind Nelson. There's room to be hitched to both bandwagons. I need Chubb at the combine. I love him as a player. My concerns are entirely scheme/position fit related Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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