Bears now own #1 overall (via Carolina).... Fields + trade downs vs Williams/Maye etc.

[CWood21]

On 1/10/2024 at 6:20 PM, Mobile1963 said:

Here's the wrench:  Draft a QB at #1 and KEEP Justin Fields for at least one more season.

Imagine nuking the trade value of BOTH of your assets.  The second that the Bears select a QB at #1 (presumably Caleb Williams), Justin Fields trade value is probably at an all-time low.  You don't take a QBs replacement first overall, and then try and parade him around as your starting QB.  It's very clear that the QB picked #1 is their QBOTF, which means time isn't on your side.  Best case scenario, Justin Fields continues to show improvement and you trade Caleb Williams a year from now for 75% of the value he had his year given that he's got 1 less year on his rookie contract and you're going to have to basically teach him a whole new playbook.  Worst case scenario, Justin Fields struggles to improve and Caleb Williams is inconsistent at best and you're now trading Fields for peanuts and/or Caleb Williams for roughly ~50% of his original trade value.  In no situation do the Bears end up better, unless you believe that Caleb Williams with a year less team control can get anywhere near his original trade value AND Justin Fields makes that actual jump.

[CWood21]

25 minutes ago, nicfre2011 said:

What about signing a veteran stopgap QB like Jacoby Brissett to start year 1 if Caleb Williams or Drake Maye aren't ready to start right out of the gate? Even if the coaching staff thinks that the rookie is ready, having a veteran like Brissett could help their transition.

I'm a BIG fan of making your rookie QB earn the spot.  I'd pay Gardner Mishnew a good amount of money to be QB1, and force Caleb Williams (or whoever the Bears take) to make him my QB1.

[nicfre2011]

13 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

I'm a BIG fan of making your rookie QB earn the spot.  I'd pay Gardner Mishnew a good amount of money to be QB1, and force Caleb Williams (or whoever the Bears take) to make him my QB1.

I would tend to agree with you. I think Mahomes sitting behind Alex Smith for his rookie year was a huge factor in his ability to adjust to the NFL. I mentioned Brissett because from what I have read about him particularly this year with Washington is he seems like he is more than willing to mentor a younger quarterback. Minshew might not be a bad option although I am not sure if how he plays could potentially instill some bad habits in a rookie. LOL

[jebrick]

18 hours ago, CWood21 said:

I'm a BIG fan of making your rookie QB earn the spot.  I'd pay Gardner Mishnew a good amount of money to be QB1, and force Caleb Williams (or whoever the Bears take) to make him my QB1.

It works if the NFLPA did not limit the number of practices in pads.  When they limit them the #1 QB get a vast majority of the practice snaps.  This makes it difficult to develop a QB unless they are there for a while.  If you think you have Mahomes level talent with a great system then perhaps 1 year apprenticeship would work.  Otherwise, it would be better to start them soon rather than later.  And the Bears are not totally without talent to "earn" the #1 pick.

 

[mdonnelly21]

The best one I've head so far and that I really like is... 

Keep Fields 

Trade down to #3: Draft Marvin Harrison Jr there. 

Then at 9 move up if you have to draft Malik Nabers if he isn't there. 

Then build your O-Line in later rounds as well as in Free Agency. 

This gives Fields 

DJ Moore, Marvin Harrison Jr AND Malik Nabers. 

That's potentially 3 bonafide #1 WRS which will help the O-Line by getting Open faster so Fields can get the ball out. 

Someone is going to be open and they will be open fast in this scenario. Lets just hope Fields gets good enough to find that guy fast enough. His reads def have to get better.

[Tugboat]

Fields sucks.  If you stick it out with him because you're "intrigued" by a few flashes, you'll regret it.  Especially when it means passing up a bluechip QB prospect like that.  Just take your shot on whoever you like of Williams/Maye/Daniels at #1 and don't look back.

 

Try to find a sucker who still believes in Fields and grab your extra 3rd round pick or whatever.  Use that to either add more talent, or as capital to try to move your other 1st round pick up the draft board a bit.  Or even just look at trading down from that pick if an opportunity presents itself and you don't love anybody still on the board.

 

When it comes to the NFL today...QB is everything.  If you don't have a top guy that you're absolutely beyond a shadow of a doubt confident in, you don't have anything.  You can't get cute with it, trying to fix a situation that has got plenty of people canned by trying to salvage a previous mistake.  Fields just isn't a good enough passer and he's never going to be.  You don't voluntarily keep yourself in QB purgatory when there are clear tickets out of there just ripe for the taking thanks to another team's air ball.  Not that Williams/Maye are a "guarantee".  The draft never is.  But they represent a good shot at a real long-term franchise solution.  The alternative is a guarantee that you're not going to get good enough QB and are going to be right back in this conundrum again a year from now...trying to evaluate whether Fields is good enough or not.  If you have to ask, they're not good enough.

Edited January 19 by Tugboat

[sparky151]

If I were in Poles shoes here's my offseason plan.

 

Fire Eberflus and hire Harbaugh. Let him bring Minter and Roman as coordinators.

Get his input on the QB situation. My inclination would be to tell Fields that he's on the bubble between coming back as the starter and being traded and see how cooperative he and his agent are. My impression is that he's eager to stay the starter for the Bears. His physical talents aren't in question but he doesn't seem to read defenses well. He takes too many sacks, misses too many open receivers (either not seeing them or overthrowing them), and turns it over too much. But he also hasn't had very good coaching thus far in his career. 

So I'd ask him to do the same tests the draft prospects are going through. S2, showing them a couple hundred plays up to the snap to see what they read from the defense, etc. Do the same for Bagent and any other QBs on the roster. The vets should smoke the draft prospects but maybe they don't and you have the answer. 

By early April you'll have the information you need on draft prospects and will be done with the bulk of free agency. It's time to shop Fields and the top pick.

For Fields, I think it might be possible to get late first round value in this draft from a team like Pittsburgh. More likely you can get a 2nd rounder (which would help replace the Sweat pick given up) plus a conditional pick next year, say a 3rd that can increase if Fields is a hit with his new team.

For pick #1, it's more valuable this year than last. So a team moving up should expect to pay as much as the Panthers paid for a similar move. I don't consider MHJ vastly better than Nabers or Odunze so instead of the small move that keeps Marv in navy blue, I'd be inclined to drop further for a bigger haul. Bears need upgrades at LT and pass rusher as well as playmakers. So maybe a deal with the Giants that includes Thomas or Thibodeaux would work. Or the Raiders if they include Crosby. 

In free agency, the Bears need to re-sign Jaylon Johnson but have plenty to spend elsewhere. Tyler Boyd would be a good addition as a solid veteran slot receiver. Maybe they go big for Chris Jones or Josh Allen if they aren't tagged. 

Most likely, I'd stay at 1 and take Caleb Williams. But don't short circuit the evaluation process. 

 

 

 

 

 

[beekay414]

lol Williams slandering Gyro spot fries. My man really tryin' not to get drafted by a Chicago-based team.

[Tugboat]

9 hours ago, sparky151 said:

If I were in Poles shoes here's my offseason plan.

 

 

So I'd ask him to do the same tests the draft prospects are going through. S2, showing them a couple hundred plays up to the snap to see what they read from the defense, etc. Do the same for Bagent and any other QBs on the roster. The vets should smoke the draft prospects but maybe they don't and you have the answer. 

The problem with this is...yes, if the more experience NFL Veteran Fields doesn't absolutely smoke the prospects, you've got your answer one way.  He absolutely should.  But at the end of the day, it still doesn't give you any kind of answer the other way.  There are lots of QBs out there who are great on the chalkboard and in the film room, but completely freeze up and lose that ability to translate it to what they're seeing down on the field in the heat of the moment under pressure.  That's probably more Fields' problem than just the classroom learning.

 

9 hours ago, sparky151 said:

By early April you'll have the information you need on draft prospects and will be done with the bulk of free agency. It's time to shop Fields and the top pick.

For Fields, I think it might be possible to get late first round value in this draft from a team like Pittsburgh. More likely you can get a 2nd rounder (which would help replace the Sweat pick given up) plus a conditional pick next year, say a 3rd that can increase if Fields is a hit with his new team.

For pick #1, it's more valuable this year than last. So a team moving up should expect to pay as much as the Panthers paid for a similar move. I don't consider MHJ vastly better than Nabers or Odunze so instead of the small move that keeps Marv in navy blue, I'd be inclined to drop further for a bigger haul. Bears need upgrades at LT and pass rusher as well as playmakers. So maybe a deal with the Giants that includes Thomas or Thibodeaux would work. Or the Raiders if they include Crosby. 

 

This is the other part i just don't agree with.  I don't think your Starting QB is a spot where you can "sit on the fence" and weigh options.  Either Fields is the guy, or he's not.  It's cut and dry for me.  You either commit to him, or you move him and move on.  You can't just dither and waffle on it depending on what sort of "value" you can get for Fields.

Especially because...if you're basing the decision to move Fields on how much you can get for him...it's going to basically run counter to prevailing confidence about him as a QB.  If teams aren't offering much, it's because nobody else has any confidence in him either.  Which should make you wonder why you have any confidence in him.  Really...the less he's "worth" on the market, the less confident you should probably be in him as "The Guy" for your own team.

But i think you really just have to make your own decision.  You're the one whose future is tethered to the guy if you decide to stick it out with him.  I know what my decision would be.  But one way or the other, just make the call and stand by it.  Be a confident organization one way or the other.  Not a tepid tip-toeing fence sitting posture.

[sparky151]

Well, the great unknown is Fields' ceiling. He hasn't been in a QB-friendly situation for most of his tenure with the Bears. I think most people would agree that he's an elite athlete. The question is how good an NFL QB he could be in a better situation. That's why other teams will be willing to trade for him to him their starter. Maybe not Belichick if he gets the Falcons job, but someone would rather have Fields than Nix or McCarthy or Mac Jones or whomever. 

 

Various NFL teams willingly started Zach Wilson, Desmond Ridder, Aidan O'Connell, Mason Rudolph, Mac Jones, etc this past season. 

[Sugashane]

On 1/18/2024 at 2:45 PM, mdonnelly21 said:

The best one I've head so far and that I really like is... 

Keep Fields 

Trade down to #3: Draft Marvin Harrison Jr there. 

Then at 9 move up if you have to draft Malik Nabers if he isn't there. 

Then build your O-Line in later rounds as well as in Free Agency. 

This gives Fields 

DJ Moore, Marvin Harrison Jr AND Malik Nabers. 

That's potentially 3 bonafide #1 WRS which will help the O-Line by getting Open faster so Fields can get the ball out. 

Someone is going to be open and they will be open fast in this scenario. Lets just hope Fields gets good enough to find that guy fast enough. His reads def have to get better.

That's a hell of a lot of weapons for a guy to throw under 400 times per season.

[mdonnelly21]

2 hours ago, Sugashane said:

That's a hell of a lot of weapons for a guy to throw under 400 times per season.

You don't think for that reason his attempts won't increase? 

 

[Sugashane]

9 hours ago, mdonnelly21 said:

You don't think for that reason his attempts won't increase? 

 

If it increases I don't think he'll stay healthy regardless. He's missed time in all three seasons due to injuries already.

[CWood21]

On 1/18/2024 at 2:45 PM, mdonnelly21 said:

The best one I've head so far and that I really like is... 

Keep Fields 

Trade down to #3: Draft Marvin Harrison Jr there. 

Then at 9 move up if you have to draft Malik Nabers if he isn't there. 

Then build your O-Line in later rounds as well as in Free Agency. 

This gives Fields 

DJ Moore, Marvin Harrison Jr AND Malik Nabers. 

That's potentially 3 bonafide #1 WRS which will help the O-Line by getting Open faster so Fields can get the ball out. 

Someone is going to be open and they will be open fast in this scenario. Lets just hope Fields gets good enough to find that guy fast enough. His reads def have to get better.

Talk about wasting resources.  Sam Howell led the league in passing attempts (who knew?) at 612, but Dak Prescott led the league in completions at 410.  Let's assume that Justin Fields has as many completions as Dak had this year.  DJ Moore had 96 receptions, so let's call it 90 receptions for Moore in 2024.  If you figure ~80 receptions apiece for both Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers (top 3 for rookie WRs in receptions) that would leave 160 receptions for the remaining WRs as well as RBs and TEs.  I just can't see anything that would justify that.

[Tugboat]

12 hours ago, CWood21 said:

Talk about wasting resources.  Sam Howell led the league in passing attempts (who knew?) at 612, but Dak Prescott led the league in completions at 410.  Let's assume that Justin Fields has as many completions as Dak had this year.  DJ Moore had 96 receptions, so let's call it 90 receptions for Moore in 2024.  If you figure ~80 receptions apiece for both Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers (top 3 for rookie WRs in receptions) that would leave 160 receptions for the remaining WRs as well as RBs and TEs.  I just can't see anything that would justify that.

 

I think at the end of the day, this sort of "throw so many weapons in front of him, he just can't miss" approach is not just an overload and waste of resources...It's also really telling about the confidence level underpinning that decision to hypothetically keep Fields.  It's basically just an implicit admission that he's probably not very good and is going to need massive overwhelming amounts of help to succeed.  At which point, just move on.  He's not the guy.  Not if you feel compelled to overload insanely with "weapons" like that to make him serviceable.