BDL Discussion Thread 2024

[TL-TwoWinsAway]

40 minutes ago, InjuredReserve said:

Predictions for BDL Week 3 before any real voting starts?

- Does the Week 2 blowout trend continue or do we see more serious tight contests?

- What is the upset of the week?

This is where I struggle. In theory, there should never/rarely be an upset in BDL, considering it's largely based on strength of roster, and, considering how frequently upsets happen in the NFL, I'm not sure how this gets corrected (or if it even should).

[InjuredReserve]

20 minutes ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said:

This is where I struggle. In theory, there should never/rarely be an upset in BDL, considering it's largely based on strength of roster, and, considering how frequently upsets happen in the NFL, I'm not sure how this gets corrected (or if it even should).

There were a lot of NFL games that I would consider evenly matched this week. So putting those to the side.

The following 2 games were definitively upsets - which is kind of a pretty frequent expectation of upsets:

- Panthers over Raiders

- Rams over 49ers

 

Panthers just clowned the Raiders. BDL equivalent of a gameplan win. I'm honestly not sure what happened other than a collapse by 49ers against the Rams (didn't watch the comeback).

But, then again I have read your message now a few times now and I actually think you might agree with me here. Hmmm. Hmmm. I might be reading your message wrong, or am I?

[WFLukic]

Broncos beating the Bucs was definitely a big upset too.

[InjuredReserve]

3 minutes ago, WFLukic said:

Broncos beating the Bucs was definitely a big upset too.

Great call. Totally forgot about that too. Bucs were getting serious hype after 1st 2 weeks.

[RuskieTitan]

54 minutes ago, WFLukic said:

Broncos beating the Bucs was definitely a big upset too.

Not for the Bo-lievers it wasn't.

[EaglesPeteC]

2 hours ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said:

This is where I struggle. In theory, there should never/rarely be an upset in BDL, considering it's largely based on strength of roster, and, considering how frequently upsets happen in the NFL, I'm not sure how this gets corrected (or if it even should).

I struggle with the same thing. There might be "upsets" because of just the general moodiness and finickiness of the voters.

 

Some people will see a player struggle for that week and vote accordingly but others won't. The sheer chaos of trying to guess what all of us jokers are thinking on any given day or hour is what can lead to upsets.

 

Like our matchup, Stafford has had by far the more consistent career than Kyler, but everyone just saw Kyler dominate and Stafford struggle and voted accordingly...

[Blue]

I think the Carolina and Denver wins make a lot of sense when you consider context. Carolina switched QBs, and it’s painfully apparent how much Bryce Young held that team back offensively. Tampa has been ravaged defensively and Payton talked about simplifying the offense after last week’s debacle; I guess the biggest shock there is a coach actually doing what he says he will.

Rams over 9ers is a division game and those follow no logical rules. Browns getting clowned by the Giants is borderline inexplicable to me.

[InjuredReserve]

19 minutes ago, Blue said:

I think the Carolina and Denver wins make a lot of sense when you consider context. Carolina switched QBs, and it’s painfully apparent how much Bryce Young held that team back offensively. Tampa has been ravaged defensively and Payton talked about simplifying the offense after last week’s debacle; I guess the biggest shock there is a coach actually doing what he says he will.

Rams over 9ers is a division game and those follow no logical rules. Browns getting clowned by the Giants is borderline inexplicable to me.

I take your point on Carolina bc we all expected Andy Dalton to improve their offense.

But still a big upset since they were as down in the dirt as a team can be and the Raiders were coming off a massive win.

[BodyBurner]

As a newer member I find this topic of upsets interesting. If upsets rarely happen what is point of the write-ups. I don't think this league would have lasted as long as it has if it was just voting on rosters but if that is what everyone essentially does why bother writing them or reading them? 

Is there anyone that would vote for the worse roster? I don't mean in close contests either. If one team was 2 or 3 steps above another in terms of talent but the worst team wrote an amazing game plan and the better team had an average or a bad one would that change anyone's vote?

[Scoundrel]

2 minutes ago, BodyBurner said:

As a newer member I find this topic of upsets interesting. If upsets rarely happen what is point of the write-ups. I don't think this league would have lasted as long as it has if it was just voting on rosters but if that is what everyone essentially does why bother writing them or reading them? 

Is there anyone that would vote for the worse roster? I don't mean in close contests either. If one team was 2 or 3 steps above another in terms of talent but the worst team wrote an amazing game plan and the better team had an average or a bad one would that change anyone's vote?

Gameplans matter to me

[BodyBurner]

1 minute ago, Scoundrel said:

Gameplans matter to me

So you would vote for the worse team in terms of talent

[bcb1213]

38 minutes ago, Blue said:

I think the Carolina and Denver wins make a lot of sense when you consider context. Carolina switched QBs, and it’s painfully apparent how much Bryce Young held that team back offensively. Tampa has been ravaged defensively and Payton talked about simplifying the offense after last week’s debacle; I guess the biggest shock there is a coach actually doing what he says he will.

Rams over 9ers is a division game and those follow no logical rules. Browns getting clowned by the Giants is borderline inexplicable to me.

Meh, I don't buy the first part.  The defense wasn't terrible for Tampa despite the injuries, it was all on the offensive side of the ball for Tampa.  They barely got over 200 yards of offense and turned it over twice.  Defense only allowed one TD and Denver consistently got the ball in good position

[TL-TwoWinsAway]

7 hours ago, InjuredReserve said:

There were a lot of NFL games that I would consider evenly matched this week. So putting those to the side.

The following 2 games were definitively upsets - which is kind of a pretty frequent expectation of upsets:

- Panthers over Raiders

- Rams over 49ers

 

Panthers just clowned the Raiders. BDL equivalent of a gameplan win. I'm honestly not sure what happened other than a collapse by 49ers against the Rams (didn't watch the comeback).

But, then again I have read your message now a few times now and I actually think you might agree with me here. Hmmm. Hmmm. I might be reading your message wrong, or am I?

I probably didn't word it well. I feel that upsets in the NFL are far more common than upsets in BDL, If you're basing a lot of your vote on the strength of a roster, you'll have little incentive to take an underdog.

It's something I'm not entirely sure how to adjust or improve.

So far, I've tried to put a lot of weight into finding mismatches through gameplans - if a team has a detailed plan how to exploit a weakness on another team, and that other team does nothing to account/scheme for that weakness, I'll put a lot of weight into that mismatch - but, really, there should probably be more.

Looking at this week: we've got Cancun's Mahomes, who's churning out subpar performances and throwing uncharacteristically bad picks, going against Raleigh's Stafford, who had a very good performance in a wild comeback against the "powerhouse" 49ers. I want to put some BDL weight into all of that. I think that should matter. It just feels "wrong" voting against a better roster because, well, the roster is better.

TL;DR: I have no idea.

[Malfatron]

3 minutes ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said:

I probably didn't word it well. I feel that upsets in the NFL are far more common than upsets in BDL, If you're basing a lot of your vote on the strength of a roster, you'll have little incentive to take an underdog.

It's something I'm not entirely sure how to adjust or improve.

So far, I've tried to put a lot of weight into finding mismatches through gameplans - if a team has a detailed plan how to exploit a weakness on another team, and that other team does nothing to account/scheme for that weakness, I'll put a lot of weight into that mismatch - but, really, there should probably be more.

Looking at this week: we've got Cancun's Mahomes, who's churning out subpar performances and throwing uncharacteristically bad picks, going against Raleigh's Stafford, who had a very good performance in a wild comeback against the "powerhouse" 49ers. I want to put some BDL weight into all of that. I think that should matter. It just feels "wrong" voting against a better roster because, well, the roster is better.

TL;DR: I have no idea.

The good thing is that theres many different ways to choose a winner so use what feels right for you when voting

[Blue]

5 hours ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said:

Cancun's Mahomes, who's churning out subpar performances and throwing uncharacteristically bad picks

I'm sure he would look drastically better with BDL stud Andrei Iosivas, who is up to 3 touchdowns in three games and 7 TDs in 25 career catches, to throw the ball to instead of *checks notes* zombie JuJu Smith Schuster

Edited 17 hours ago by Blue