packfanfb Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 (edited) 2 hours ago, Packerraymond said: Decision was bad, chance to go from 2 score to 3 score game. If Lions are up 10, I'm all for going for it to make it a 3 score game. Whenever you have an opportunity to increase the amount of scores another team needs to win,/tie you take the opportunity with the best odds. This the main point to take away from this. When you're up 14 in the second half and have a chance to make it a three-score game, even at 17, you do it 1,000 times out of 100. There's no "math" or analytics to consider at that point. You take the three-possession lead, every time. The other decisions by Campbell I could live with. But that one, no. Edited January 29 by packfanfb 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leader Posted January 29 Author Share Posted January 29 Just now, packfanfb said: The other decisions by Campbell I could live with. But that one, no. Which decision? The late "non-FG" try? Depends on how reliable your FG kicker is. If he's the kind that needs prayer insure success....you go for it. If he good from inside the 50...you get your team even again a IMO. Makes it a 10 minute game at that point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Striker Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 38 minutes ago, Mazrimiv said: On third-and-4 at the 49ers’ 30-yard line, up by 14 with 7:46 remaining in the third quarter, the Lions had a 90 percent chance to win the game, according to ESPN’s win probability model. They handed the ball off to Amon-Ra St. Brown, who was lined up as a running back, for only a 2-yard gain. It was fourth-and-2. The Lions ran on third-and-4 because they knew they’d go for a short fourth down in this area of the field. Next Gen Stats had the decision, on fourth-and-2, as a lean to go: 86.8 percent win probability on a go, 85.8 percent win probability on a kick. So the Lions went. Why not? Their offense dominated for the entire first half, and on this, their first drive of the second half, they were dominating again. You can bemoan the decision all you like—Dan Campbell and the Lions got here because they’re willing to make decisions such as these. You dance with the one who brought you, and it’s the fourth down, the final down, that brought Campbell. Josh Reynolds dropped the pass. Honestly, this was my biggest issue with that sequence. He's had 4 carries all year and I'd wager that none of them were straight up the middle. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Striker Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 hour ago, Old Guy said: You just unwittingly made my point! The success percent differential far outweighs the percentage of winning in either scenario. You can tell it's failed, bogus math because in order to bolster their data, they increase the percentage of winning, by going for it, if both options fail. That percentage, from a pure math standpoint is the same. LOL Unless, they are saying missing a FG gives the opponent more MOMENTUM by a missed FG. In which case, that is unmitigated bull****. What this graph shows is the juice is not worth the squeeze in either scenario to go for it. Thank you! Wow. There's a lot to unpack here. The percentages assume perfect conditions and don't take the kicker's accuracy at certain distances into account. So Badgley's adventures in kicking aren't factored in. "Failed, bogus math". - What benefit would they have to gain by juicing the numbers? If you want to learn about how these numbers are generated, you should read about it instead of assuming they're just faking them for reasons. Articles here and here. A failed FG will generally give an opposing team a better starting point than a failed 4th down conversion. The limitation is that it does account for turnovers but not return TDs. Though at the time the bot was created those situations were exceedingly rare (4 return TDs out of 1236 attempts in 2018 and 2019). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leader Posted January 29 Author Share Posted January 29 And your unbiased opinion is..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toddfather Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 I guess the NFC north just wasn't ready to ride or die with their kickers this season. I feel a lot better about Anders than I would Badgley though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Guy Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 8 minutes ago, Striker said: Wow. There's a lot to unpack here. The percentages assume perfect conditions and don't take the kicker's accuracy at certain distances into account. So Badgley's adventures in kicking aren't factored in. "Failed, bogus math". - What benefit would they have to gain by juicing the numbers? If you want to learn about how these numbers are generated, you should read about it instead of assuming they're just faking them for reasons. Articles here and here. A failed FG will generally give an opposing team a better starting point than a failed 4th down conversion. The limitation is that it does account for turnovers but not return TDs. Though at the time the bot was created those situations were exceedingly rare (4 return TDs out of 1236 attempts in 2018 and 2019). Would he have missed the "extra point" to tie the game too? LOL Go ahead and die on that hill. The "analytics," were the major factor in getting Brandon Staley fired. Every time I'd watch a Chargers game, he's do the same stupid **** Campbell did last night. Every time it would cost his team a game. Then eventually the little math whiz was out of a job. If you smash your head into a wall and it hurts, stop doing it! One of life's simple lessons, that guys like Campbell and Staley don't seem to learn. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfanfb Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 33 minutes ago, Leader said: And your unbiased opinion is..... Our loss easily considering the circumstances. We basically had the ball, up 12 with like 4 mins to play and lost... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leader Posted January 29 Author Share Posted January 29 2 minutes ago, packfanfb said: Our loss easily considering the circumstances. We basically had the ball, up 12 with like 4 mins to play and lost... I didnt ask to be reminded of pain that I've blocked out Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Striker Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 16 minutes ago, Old Guy said: Would he have missed the "extra point" to tie the game too? LOL Go ahead and die on that hill. The "analytics," were the major factor in getting Brandon Staley fired. Every time I'd watch a Chargers game, he's do the same stupid **** Campbell did last night. Every time it would cost his team a game. Then eventually the little math whiz was out of a job. If you smash your head into a wall and it hurts, stop doing it! One of life's simple lessons, that guys like Campbell and Staley don't seem to learn. The distance of the two kicks were 45 and 47 yards. So both longer than an extra point. Blaming analytics as a major reason for Brandon Staley getting fired sure is a choice. Especially when he was rather inconsistent with his approach to analytics after his first season. Their monumental playoff loss to the Jags was partially because they took the more conservative option despite having been aggressive for most of the season. They blew a game to KC in 2022 because they abandoned their aggressive approach. They lost to the Titans this season in spots where he elected to punt on 4th and 1 from the TEN 44 and 4th and 2 from his own 42. Oh, and they were consistently one of the worst defenses in the league for three seasons despite spending the 9th, 4th, and 5th most money on their defense. So I think analytics were probably the least of the Chargers worries. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KFP7 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 (edited) 22 minutes ago, Leader said: I didnt ask to be reminded of pain that I've blocked out then wtf did you post it for lol, no we are all reliving the nightmare Edited January 29 by KFP7 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Striker Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Also, the funny thing is that there's all this discourse about the two failed fourth down decisions when he followed analytics yet he defied it to go up three scores at the end of the half by kicking a FG on 4th and 3. Yet he went for the TD against both LA and Tampa. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packerraymond Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 6 minutes ago, Striker said: Also, the funny thing is that there's all this discourse about the two failed fourth down decisions when he followed analytics yet he defied it to go up three scores at the end of the half by kicking a FG on 4th and 3. Yet he went for the TD against both LA and Tampa. Because when you can go up 3 scores, you go up 3 scores. It's just football 101. I didn't trust my kicker is just shifting blame from game management incompetence to roster management incompetence. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leader Posted January 29 Author Share Posted January 29 When PFT weighs in....the matter is closed Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Refugee Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 13 minutes ago, Leader said: When PFT weighs in....the matter is closed This isn’t Detroit, man. This is the superbowl! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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