offbyone Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 hour ago, TecmoSuperJoe said: Completely agree. Momentum is massive. They were holding on by a thread at that moment and not taking the points cut the thread. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fattlipp Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 4 minutes ago, Forge said: You're looking at 40-49, not 45-49 It was 44 or 45, right in the middle, lol and hes 18/21 over the last 4 years.. like 88%, quit cherry-picking to make a point… Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nabbs4u Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 4 minutes ago, Forge said: Moody missed that kick Apologies, thought you were referring to one of the other 2 FG's made. 🥃 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fattlipp Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 8 minutes ago, Jameson_Neat said: Not even in the same universe, let alone planet. Then you'd have to believe the worst decision DC made tonight was letting his hotshot OC that's destined to be a HC call that play. Narratives are funny that way, no? Yeah Lions fan buddy was venting asked me if any other coach I could think of was this much of an idiot, Staleys the only one I could come up with. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamq Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Lions beat LA by 1 point. Beat Tampa by 1 score. I don't care enough to find the specific examples, but I know that his aggressive style are a big reason why they made it so far. Stop finger pointing and appreciate the season 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Just now, fattlipp said: It was 44 or 45, right in the middle, lol and hes 18/21 over the last 4 years.. like 88%, quit cherry-picking to make a point… The first was 45 (SF 28) the second 47 (SF 30)..I provide numbers for 45-49 yards ... You know, relevant to the kicks. This isn't new for him. He's pretty much always bad from 45 And you're comparing that to the 85% the offense has completed so far year to date in those situations 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 3 minutes ago, Nabbs4u said: Apologies, thought you were referring to one of the other 2 FG's made. 🥃 Those were fine. One was 8 and the other 12 yards to go Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jameson_Neat Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 minute ago, fattlipp said: Yeah Lions fan buddy was venting asked me if any other coach I could think of was this much of an idiot, Staleys the only one I could come up with. People react to outcomes. It's good process with bad results at the end of a season of good process, good results. Anyone arguing otherwise is ill-informed, much like the Staley reference. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 8 minutes ago, adamq said: Lions beat LA by 1 point. Beat Tampa by 1 score. I don't care enough to find the specific examples, but I know that his aggressive style are a big reason why they made it so far. Stop finger pointing and appreciate the season Anti analytics always do that because they like to act like analytics is telling you something with 100% certainty, which isn't the case. In some cases we are talking a 2% win difference. It's seriously just counting cards. It's just putting some black and white numbers out for you to make a risk eval Hell, most models will tell you that it's you go for it and don't get it, your win percentage is likely going to be worse than if you kick it and make it 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 And just so everyone knows, ESPN's model (haven't checked on others) had both of those decisions as basically, "do whatever the hell you want, doesn't make much of a difference". They wouldn't have excoriated him for kicking either one 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tugboat Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 47 minutes ago, Forge said: Badgely career 59% from 45-49 yards. People have to stop acting like the field goals are automatic Yeah. This just adds a whole extra dimension to the stupid argument against it, that a lot of people are completely ignoring. FGs aren't just "free points", especially longer ones. 41 minutes ago, Jameson_Neat said: Prior to tonight, Detroit had been in plus territory with 4th and 3 or less 24 times on the season. They went for it 20 times and converted on 17 of those previous attempts. Going for it in those high stress situations tonight makes me think more of Dan Campbell, not less. His teams were focused and prepared for each and every playoff game and he stayed true to what he preaches on a daily basis. This is super pertinent too. That's a significantly above average conversion percentage. People crying about "context" and "reading the situation" are just completely ignoring possibly the biggest contextual factor of them all. The specific team "gambling" and their success rate in doing so. This Detroit team has the sort of OLine where you can genuinely roll the dice and expect to come out ahead more often than not. It's loaded dice, in your favor. Say what you will of the play call, but one of them basically worked. It just...was slightly let down by execution, and 4th down is very pass/fail. 17 minutes ago, offbyone said: Completely agree. Momentum is massive. They were holding on by a thread at that moment and not taking the points cut the thread. Doesn't this just reinforce why Campbell went for it though? If you think they're just "holding on by a thread"...yes, if it doesn't convert, you cut the thread they're dangling from. But if you don't even try...what does that say about your confidence in your team and that unit to convert? It probably cuts the thread anyway. Not guaranteed points. And just cuts the legs out from under any chance of swinging the momentum back your way. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tugboat Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 14 minutes ago, Forge said: Anti analytics always do that because they like to act like analytics is telling you something with 100% certainty, which isn't the case. In some cases we are talking a 2% win difference. It's seriously just counting cards. It's just putting some black and white numbers out for you to make a risk eval Hell, most models will tell you that it's you go for it and don't get it, your win percentage is likely going to be worse than if you kick it and make it I'm far from some sort of "Analytics Disciple". But this is exactly what it boils down to. You're playing around in the margins. Sometimes it goes right, sometimes it goes wrong. But if you're gonna play...****in' play. The worst decision you can make is to be inconsistent and wishy-washy on things and change your process because you get scared when "the stakes are higher". I think there's just a general statistical illiteracy that plagues society today. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jameson_Neat Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 2 minutes ago, Tugboat said: Doesn't this just reinenforce why Campbell went for it though? If you think they're just "holding on by a thread"...yes, if it doesn't convert, you cut the thread they're dangling from. But if you don't even try...what does that say about your confidence in your team and that unit to convert? It probably cuts the thread anyway. Not guaranteed points. And just cuts the legs out from under any chance of swinging the momentum back your way. The Lions were not hanging by a thread up 24-10. Simply put, fans like the gamble only when the gamble works. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DirtyDez Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 It’s not always the coaches fault if the players don’t execute. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
offbyone Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 12 minutes ago, Tugboat said: Doesn't this just reinforce why Campbell went for it though? If you think they're just "holding on by a thread"...yes, if it doesn't convert, you cut the thread they're dangling from. But if you don't even try...what does that say about your confidence in your team and that unit to convert? It probably cuts the thread anyway. Not guaranteed points. And just cuts the legs out from under any chance of swinging the momentum back your way. It is one thing if it is their last possession, but there was plenty of time left in the game. Tying the game with that much time left in the game leaves it to be anyone's ball game and it fires the troops back up. The math is pretty simple, being tied is better than losing. Being tied gives you a better chance of winning than losing. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.