Packers sign RB Josh Jacobs (4 years, $48M, $12.5M gtd)

[incognito_man]

 

 

 

[Billy86]

1 hour ago, Soko said:

Not all catches are created equally for RBs. Elliott has similar numbers to both, and he’s not the receiver Jones was. Jacobs doesn’t have that diverse of a skill set catching the ball to the extent Jones did, but yeah, he’s younger, more durable, and much better runner at this point in their careers.

I hope you're right, but I'll believe it when I see it. A huge part of what made Jones so valuable for GB is that he had one of the highest YPC averages in the history of the league despite GB often having mediocre or just flat out poor run blocking. 

That's not necessarily a knock on our offensive line, as GB arguably get the most bang for their buck in that entire position group in the league due to generally how good they are at pass blocking and how many late picks there are. But Aaron Jones was a massive underrated part of what made them tick.

A contender with a RB problem would do great to sign him to a 1-2yr deal. Gutted to see him go as he was the highest character player GB have had since Donald Driver. 

[Soko]

23 minutes ago, PACKRULE said:

All good bro, I just disagree. The stats provide the backdrop to the highlight reels. And parse our memories as your suggesting that Jones and Etienne are more dynamic but again the stats don't show that. You’re merely stating wheel routes and routes from the back field and such. Give me something tangible vs subjective to support your stance. Right now you’re just merely saying this, I'm a Jones fan have been for years I don't see dynamic. I see like most of these RB's there are the odd splash plays but mostly it's dump offs for first downs if lucky.

Let me clarify; so you disagree that there’s a difference between a RB catching a dump off or curl to the middle of the field vs a RB running a wheel route, an angle, a fade, etc? Because they’d show up exactly the same on a stat sheet. 

Jacobs ADOT in his most heavily targeted seasons: 0.5, -0.4, 0.7, 0.7 yards

Jones ADOT in his mostly heavily targeted seasons: 0.2, 2.8, 0.9, 1.2 yards

Passer rating throwing to Jacobs by year: 89.4. 85.2, 82.8, 92.7, 66.6

Passer rating throwing to Jones by year: 98.0, 105.9, 98.3, 122.5, 112.7, 90.6

Jacobs 1st down percentage: 31%

Jones 1st down percentage: 37%

Jacobs career YAC/reception: 7.5

Jones career YAC/reception: 7.9

Jacobs career yards before contact (receiving): -31 yards, -0.16/reception

Jones career yards before contact (receiving): -95 yards, -0.35/reception

So Jones is going further down the field on average, has a higher passer rating when targeted, gets more first downs, has more yards after contact, and has less wide open field before contact. 

EDIT: FWIW, Jones has clearly lost a step and ticked even further down in durability. He’s getting older. I’m mot suggesting in 2024 and beyond that he’s necessarily going to be better or more productive in a vacuum than Jacobs would. I think it’s a fine signing for Green Bay. Just pushing back that Jones, when he’s been on the field, has been much better than Jacobs as a receiver. 

Edited March 12 by Soko

[PACKRULE]

2 minutes ago, Soko said:

Let me clarify; so you disagree that there’s a difference between a RB catching a dump off or curl to the middle of the field vs a RB running a wheel route, an angle, a fade, etc? Because they’d show up exactly the same on a stat sheet. 

Jacobs ADOT in his most heavily targeted seasons: 0.5, -0.4, 0.7, 0.7 yards

Jones ADOT in his mostly heavily targeted seasons: 0.2, 2.8, 0.9, 1.2 yards

Passer rating throwing to Jacobs by year: 89.4. 85.2, 82.8, 92.7, 66.6

Passer rating throwing to Jones by year: 98.0, 105.9, 98.3, 122.5, 112.7, 90.6

Jacobs 1st down percentage: 31%

Jones 1st down percentage: 37%

Jacobs career YAC/reception: 7.5

Jones career YAC/reception: 7.9

Jacobs career yards before contact (receiving): -31 yards, -0.16/reception

Jones career yards before contact (receiving): -95 yards, -0.35/reception

So Jones is going further down the field on average, has a higher passer rating when targeted, has more yards after contact, and has less wide open field before contact. 

 

Thanks that's a heck of allot better post then the other as far as support. Beyond the last stat which has a rather large difference they are not all that different and we're not adding in their ability to run the ball, stay in the game and block. If you factor in Jones played with AR for 6 years while Jacobs played for a dumpster fire often enough for 5 years that intrigues me even more. I think this says allot when Jacobs can still hold a candle and be up there in consideration of the team and QB.  

[incognito_man]

16 minutes ago, Soko said:

Jones has clearly lost a step

Jones, at the end of this season, was the best he's ever been. He was good. The issue isn't his skill, it's his durability and age. And GB might view this is "Jacobs is who we were hoping AJ Dillon could be if he hit, so let's pay him the money we hoped Dillon was going to be worth"

[Leader]

 

[Soko]

8 minutes ago, PACKRULE said:

Thanks that's a heck of allot better post then the other as far as support. Beyond the last stat which has a rather large difference they are not all that different and we're not adding in their ability to run the ball, stay in the game and block. If you factor in Jones played with AR for 6 years while Jacobs played for a dumpster fire often enough for 5 years that intrigues me even more. I think this says allot when Jacobs can still hold a candle and be up there in consideration of the team and QB.  

But again, stats are only a piece. I can’t over emphasize that RB stats as far as receiving go, are extremely hard to just compare on a sheet. Guys like Chubb and Henry barely do anything aside from catch wide open dump offs and screens. Compared to guys like Etienne and Mixon who actually run routes of the backfield. Then the group of Barkley and Ekeler, who take that even further. Then CMC and Kamara, the guys who are legit WR threats. The difference between each of those groups on a stat sheet is like, maybe a yard and catch per game. It’s not significant on a stat sheet, but what they’re asked to do and the skill sets they bring as pass catchers absolutely do not shot up. It’s like looking at a WR who had 5 catches for 200 yards, and assuming they’re a deep threat with great pass catching abilities - meanwhile all of them came off screen passes and jet sweeps. The sample sizes are so small, that one dump off that the RB brok open or the defense couldn’t afford to cover because of a blitz will significantly impact things like yards/catch.

The numbers might paint it if you provide enough of them, but it’s really not the full story.

[PACKRULE]

1 minute ago, Soko said:

But again, stats are only a piece. I can’t over emphasize that RB stats as far as receiving go, are extremely hard to just compare on a sheet. Guys like Chubb and Henry barely do anything aside from catch wide open dump offs and screens. Compared to guys like Etienne and Mixon who actually run routes of the backfield. Then the group of Barkley and Ekeler, who take that even further. Then CMC and Kamara, the guys who are legit WR threats. The difference between each of those groups on a stat sheet is like, maybe a yard and catch per game. It’s not significant on a stat sheet, but what they’re asked to do and the skill sets they bring as pass catchers absolutely do not shot up. It’s like looking at a WR who had 5 catches for 200 yards, and assuming they’re a deep threat with great pass catching abilities - meanwhile all of them came off screen passes and jet sweeps. The sample sizes are so small, that one dump off that the RB brok open or the defense couldn’t afford to cover because of a blitz will significantly impact things like yards/catch.

The numbers might paint it if you provide enough of them, but it’s really not the full story.

Agreed there is never a full story with stats. You are totally right there. And I won't argue that Jones has a bigger play potential when he gets touches. With that said watching every packer game since before he came on board he was a decent part of the clubs success at times. With that said he does come with flaws, his size and availability going forward were an issue.

He's coming up on the RB age deadline and could not work out a number. The pack brought in a guy that can carry the rock over 20 times a game, can catch the ball well, and block. Is a team player by all accounts and is the same age as Dillon who they won't bring back. So all in all they got younger, and statistically speaking ( I know even with what you said ) the Pack look the same to me. Again I do agree with your comments about stats. I think Jacobs while not being exactly the same player may have a great impact being able to see the field more due to size and strength. 

[PossibleCabbage]

I feel like the decision on Aaron Jones is basically predicated on the low confidence you have in Aaron Jones being available for the bulk of a season plus the playoffs next year, and your belief that you want the running game to be a leverage point of the offense.  Jacobs availability hasn't been sterling, but he's at least built sturdier and he's younger.  But I fully expect Green Bay to also spend a day 2 pick on an RB (they do have four day 2 picks, after all).

Edited March 12 by PossibleCabbage

[Soko]

20 minutes ago, PACKRULE said:

Agreed there is never a full story with stats. You are totally right there. And I won't argue that Jones has a bigger play potential when he gets touches. With that said watching every packer game since before he came on board he was a decent part of the clubs success at times. With that said he does come with flaws, his size and availability going forward were an issue.

He's coming up on the RB age deadline and could not work out a number. The pack brought in a guy that can carry the rock over 20 times a game, can catch the ball well, and block. Is a team player by all accounts and is the same age as Dillon who they won't bring back. So all in all they got younger, and statistically speaking ( I know even with what you said ) the Pack look the same to me. Again I do agree with your comments about stats. I think Jacobs while not being exactly the same player may have a great impact being able to see the field more due to size and strength. 

I agree with your conclusions about Jacobs helping the Packers. He’s a good fit for any team!

[Ragnarok]

I would have liked this deal so much more if we hadn't dropped Aaron Jones to make room for it.  He was playing at an elite level.

And Jacobs and Jones together would have been awesome to watch.

[NudeTayne]

47 minutes ago, Leader said:

 

Sign him, Minny.

[RaidersAreOne]

I'm going to look like such a biased homer here, but for those who think the Packers just signed the best RB in the league or something aren't realizing how poor JJ was this season.

Last year was a far cry from his 1,600+, 12 TD campaign a couple seasons ago. Are the Packers getting the good JJ or bad? I'll reiterate that the signing was a good one at that low gtd amount, but the Raiders definitely are not crazy for letting Jacobs walk at that price.

[incognito_man]

1 minute ago, NudeTayne said:

Sign him, Minny.

if we liken this separation from GB to a romantic relationship, this is the stage in which the ex is engaged in frequent and flirty texting with a co-worker you don't like. Contract discussions would be heavy petting.

[RaisinBran]

Going to miss Jacobs a lot...he won us a bunch of games being the focal point of the offense. I'll never forget going to the game in Seattle in 2022 and seeing that overtime walk off touchdown!