Texans trade 23rd pick to Vikings for 42nd, 188th, and 2025 2nd

[Tugboat]

29 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

That's what I'm saying.  There's a better chance that Washington has another QB graded highly than there is of New England having 2 graded highly not named Caleb Williams.

While I do think that Washington would take Caleb Williams if Chicago passed on him, I think they'd effectively be operating as if Caleb Williams wasn't in the draft and the Commanders were picking #1 overall.  LIS, I think it's unlikely that they don't have some graded out highly.  And their offseason moves so far haven't suggested they plan on going in another direction other than QB at 2.  I think at this point the only question is who is going to be their pick, and I think the only QBs really being considered are Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye.

Again, very possible but offseason moves suggest that they're going to go QB at 3.  Mac Jones needed to get out of town, but there was no reason to move him unless you weren't replacing him.  Jacoby Brissett is that bridge QB to sign this offseason, and will likely get the first crack at the starting QB gig.  But eventually he's going to be replaced.  Given the amount of sheer needs the Patriots have, it wouldn't be unfathomable if they moved off this pick to someone like the NY Giants and pivot with a high floor player with legitimate upside (Joe Alt) especially if they thought a guy like Bo Nix or Michael Penix could be available in the 2nd round and produce similarly to whoever is left after Washington picks.  But again, that's more of a draft day deal.

No doubt that there isn't a consensus.  I'd venture to guess there's at least 1 or 2 teams that don't have Caleb Williams ranked as QB1, if not more.  And that might even be on the pessimistic side.  I think if you asked the 32 teams who was QB2, I think majority would say either Drake Maye or Jayden Daniels and a few would say JJ McCarthy.  Similar to the 2018 class, although I think Caleb Williams being the largely consensus QB1 would be the major difference between the classes.  But I think there were some teams that liked Baker Mayfield the most, some teams that liked Sam Darnold the most, etc.  

 

Ahhh.  Gotcha.  I misread that a little bit.  But it seems we're pretty much in total agreement about where that 3 spot is very different from the 2 spot.  And possibly a lot less locked in.

Just the current state of the Patriots and effectively a new "Fresh Start" regime on top of it, i really see that as the first potential moving piece in this draft.  Or they could just have their QB2 or even QB1 available and just make the pick too.  It's just...very much more open than picks 1 and 2.  Where i'd agree, the Washingtons are probably treating it like they've got de factor #1 Pick in their own draft...with a pretty good indication of who is going #1.

[CWood21]

23 minutes ago, Tugboat said:

Just the current state of the Patriots and effectively a new "Fresh Start" regime on top of it, i really see that as the first potential moving piece in this draft.  Or they could just have their QB2 or even QB1 available and just make the pick too.  It's just...very much more open than picks 1 and 2.  Where i'd agree, the Washingtons are probably treating it like they've got de factor #1 Pick in their own draft...with a pretty good indication of who is going #1.

I guess if the Patriots were that willing to move off that pick, I would have thought that they would have been more involved in the QB market specifically with regards to guys like Sam Howell or Justin Fields.  Unless they really want to clean out the QB room.  I'd still put the odds of the Patriots going with a QB at 98%, 1% of them taking Marvin Harrison Jr, and then 1% of them trading the pick.

[Tugboat]

23 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

I guess if the Patriots were that willing to move off that pick, I would have thought that they would have been more involved in the QB market specifically with regards to guys like Sam Howell or Justin Fields.  Unless they really want to clean out the QB room.  I'd still put the odds of the Patriots going with a QB at 98%, 1% of them taking Marvin Harrison Jr, and then 1% of them trading the pick.

I'd go more like 70% Taking a QB / 15% Taking MHJ / 10% Trading back a little bit / 5% Trading back a lot bit.

 

I just think the fact that it's a brand new regime cleaning house after Bill...they really have no reason to take a QB year 1 of that process unless they absolutely love whichever guy is available at 3.  That immediately ties them to the guy...so you've gotta be more than sure.  Unless you're 110% sold on the guy, why not take the leash you've got, extend it by a year by putting your QB pick off 'til next year?  Most GMs only get one shot to fire on a First Round QB.  If you're not sure, or don't think your franchise is in a place to support a project like say...Drake Maye, why not postpone that by a year?  Pick up more capital to go after it again then.

Maybe tinker in the mid/later round market or even some of these potential 2nd round guys.  But i think more than anything, NE not being more aggressively involved on guys like Howell and Maye tells me that the urgency isn't really there.  Kraft finally pulling the plug on Belichick isn't something that was done lightly.  I think that also speaks to a longer leash, and an approach that has generally been more patient than most.

 

Or they just adore the QB who falls into their laps at #3 and have him as their QB1 in the draft and run away giggling.  Who knows.  But it seems far less locked in to me, than Picks 1 and 2.  Where the permutations and combinations are...extremely limited.

[Hunter2_1]

14 hours ago, Duluther said:

Shh Shh Shhhh…

Just let it happen, daddy.

Right…. @vike daddy

It was probably my wording at fault, but my original post said “Ultimately we have no idea. Who’s to say Jalen isn’t the guy they have their eye on already, then falls to us, as is predicted? No way they’re trading back.”

When you quoted this, you begun with “no way they’re trading back”. This on its own does make it seem like I am saying the Pats won’t be trading back, period. But what I mean is that if Jalen is their guy and he’s there - then there would be no way they’re trading back. 
 

And because the quote begun with that sentence, Duluther here picked up on that and also me saying “we have no idea”, and found the contradiction.

 

so, hopefully that’s the confusion cleared up 😂 all good bros 

 

actually, whilst on this topic. Id be very happy with trading 3 to Minnesota in this same scenario. Would prefer to build the team instead of inserting a QB into a hot mess

Edited March 24 by Hunter2_1

[vike daddy]

5 hours ago, Hunter2_1 said:

actually, whilst on this topic. Id be very happy with trading 3 to Minnesota in this same scenario. Would prefer to build the team instead of inserting a QB into a hot mess

if we trade to 3, i would hope it's for Maye. at 5 or 6, then McCarthy.

 

and who says whilst? where you from, Willis? lol

[Tugboat]

15 hours ago, Hunter2_1 said:

Right…. @vike daddy

It was probably my wording at fault, but my original post said “Ultimately we have no idea. Who’s to say Jalen isn’t the guy they have their eye on already, then falls to us, as is predicted? No way they’re trading back.”

When you quoted this, you begun with “no way they’re trading back”. This on its own does make it seem like I am saying the Pats won’t be trading back, period. But what I mean is that if Jalen is their guy and he’s there - then there would be no way they’re trading back. 
 

And because the quote begun with that sentence, Duluther here picked up on that and also me saying “we have no idea”, and found the contradiction.

 

so, hopefully that’s the confusion cleared up 😂 all good bros 

 

actually, whilst on this topic. Id be very happy with trading 3 to Minnesota in this same scenario. Would prefer to build the team instead of inserting a QB into a hot mess

 

Who is Jalen and why do the Patriots possibly want him so bad?

 

But yeah.  I think that last bit is really where the NE Pick at 3 starts to become fairly interesting.  If they can get a good trade back that doesn't move them too far back to be landing a "blue chip" building block PLUS more and probably even more future ammunition for next year's draft...i think that has to start becoming really appealing.  Especially if they only really like Caleb and "Jalen" or something, and they go 1-2.

I think Maye is going to be particularly sensitive to landing spot and might be the least "ready" of the bunch to start right away.  But particularly, he's one where dropping him into a hot mess of a situation that isn't conducive to getting good play out of a very raw, rookie QB...could really end up being a futile waste of time and draft resources.

So i could see NE looking at it like...this guy is probably gonna have to get sat for a year anyway.  What's the harm in taking a trade back offer, grabbing a couple strong prospects including at least one bluechipper instead, and having the ammunition to go out and probably grab their "first preference" in next year's draft.  Where they'll have been able to lay the groundwork for at least a somewhat better situation for that rookie to parachute into?

 

 

Or yeah...they just really love Maye or "Jalen" or McCarthy, draft him at 3 and don't look back.  That's also very plausible.  But there are options and moving parts and contingencies there i think.

[CWood21]

55 minutes ago, Tugboat said:

So i could see NE looking at it like...this guy is probably gonna have to get sat for a year anyway.  What's the harm in taking a trade back offer, grabbing a couple strong prospects including at least one bluechipper instead, and having the ammunition to go out and probably grab their "first preference" in next year's draft.  Where they'll have been able to lay the groundwork for at least a somewhat better situation for that rookie to parachute into?

A LOT of assumptions going on there, starting with QB1 next year will be better than QB3 this year.  At the end of the day, you go back to your evaluation and that's if you think QB3 is your guy, you take him no matter what.  And then you put together a plan of action of how to develop him.  And with Jacoby Brissett in the fold, you don't have to start him right away.  And given how bad the Patriots' roster is this year, there's probably not a ton of pressure to play him Day 1 so you can probably sit him for majority (if not all) of the season.  You've still got the 34th pick which likely gets a stud if not dealt for some real chunk of value.

[CWood21]

22 hours ago, Tugboat said:

Or they just adore the QB who falls into their laps at #3 and have him as their QB1 in the draft and run away giggling.  Who knows.  But it seems far less locked in to me, than Picks 1 and 2.  Where the permutations and combinations are...extremely limited.

They're no different than Washington IMO, other than the fact that they'll likely have 1 less QB to choose from.  That's the only difference I see.  And New England could have a clear cut top 2 QBs, and then not like QB3 or QB4 nearly as much.  But IF New England felt that way, you would have thought New England would have been interested in one of those buy-low QBs (Sam Howell, Justin Fields, etc.) rather than just rolling through Day 1 of the NFL Draft with just Jacoby Brissett and Bailey Zappa under contract.  They dumped Mac Jones for peanuts to Jacksonville to get rid of him since he was broken in New England.  Why wouldn't New England want to gamble on someone like a Sam Howell or Justin Fields?  Worst case scenario, they continue what they were with Washington and Chicago respectively and they're out a Day 3 pick.  Best case scenario, they show that pre-draft promise that came with them.  I'd be very shocked to see them not take a QB at 3, and I'd be even more shocked if they took MHJ over trading out of that #3 spot.

[Tugboat]

2 hours ago, CWood21 said:

A LOT of assumptions going on there, starting with QB1 next year will be better than QB3 this year.  At the end of the day, you go back to your evaluation and that's if you think QB3 is your guy, you take him no matter what.  And then you put together a plan of action of how to develop him.  And with Jacoby Brissett in the fold, you don't have to start him right away.  And given how bad the Patriots' roster is this year, there's probably not a ton of pressure to play him Day 1 so you can probably sit him for majority (if not all) of the season.  You've still got the 34th pick which likely gets a stud if not dealt for some real chunk of value.

Sure, maybe QB3 this year is better than QB1 next year.  That's not implausible.  But that depends a lot on who QB3 even is this year, and whether that's a guy that your specific organization really likes or not.  It's also a reality that by this time next year, we'll be talking about teams trading up for these great "top QBs" in the draft all over again, even if they aren't that good.  So you're comparing pre-hype guys to "at the absolute peak of their hype cycle" guys in this draft.

 

I still think it's probably ~70% that NE just stand pat and draft a QB.  But they've got a lot of options and there are definitely scenarios where that might not appeal to them or even be the best team-building strategy long-term.

If you're truly sold on the guy available at Pick3...you take him and sit him, and that's fine.  But if not...you have to start weighing a guy you're not 100% sold on this year, sitting them for a year...vs a guy who next year, might be able to step right in, especially with a better roster (including from the extra picks from a trade back).

They're in a position to frame this management-wise as a "laying the foundations" year.  There's zero pressure on them to find the Franchise QB this year, and that's an extremely rare thing in the NFL that might be worth taking advantage of.

 

1 hour ago, CWood21 said:

They're no different than Washington IMO, other than the fact that they'll likely have 1 less QB to choose from.  That's the only difference I see.  And New England could have a clear cut top 2 QBs, and then not like QB3 or QB4 nearly as much.  But IF New England felt that way, you would have thought New England would have been interested in one of those buy-low QBs (Sam Howell, Justin Fields, etc.) rather than just rolling through Day 1 of the NFL Draft with just Jacoby Brissett and Bailey Zappa under contract.  They dumped Mac Jones for peanuts to Jacksonville to get rid of him since he was broken in New England.  Why wouldn't New England want to gamble on someone like a Sam Howell or Justin Fields?  Worst case scenario, they continue what they were with Washington and Chicago respectively and they're out a Day 3 pick.  Best case scenario, they show that pre-draft promise that came with them.  I'd be very shocked to see them not take a QB at 3, and I'd be even more shocked if they took MHJ over trading out of that #3 spot.

 

The biggest thing with not bothering to outbid anyone on guys like Howell, Fields is...if you don't view either of those guys as better than QB3 in this draft...there's really no point.  That's what their draft position gives them access to.  A long-term answer, or potential answer...or even just drafting their own guy Day2 or 3 and getting a longer timeline that probably fits better with where their team is at anyway.  The thing with QBs is...you want the best chance at a Franchise QB you can get.

 

But it's also entirely possible within that for them to view QB3 in this draft as >>> Howell, Fields...yet still not believe that QB3 is worth taking at pick #3 and tying your franchise and jobs to there.

Ultimately, if you don't have a Franchise QB...you need to go find one.  But that doesn't mean you're obligated to just ride or die with the next best thing that comes along.  Or that you even need to bother testing out fringe/longshot options with contract years already burned for mid-round picks.  Especially if your team is currently kind of a mess and you've got a long leash to run out for the time being.

 

Like...Justin Fields especially, is in a super awkward contractual spot for a team like the Patriots.  You play him this year to figure out if he's "the guy" or not...and then you immediately have to pay him if you think he is.  But at the same time, that Patriots roster is currently worse than the situation Fields sucked in with Chicago.  So what are you really hoping for by getting involved in that?

Howell...maybe if you like him more than any of that next tier of Day2 options.  But the Seahawks had to move themselves out of a Day2 pick ~24 spots in what might still be the meat of this draft, to get him.  With years already burned off his contract and basically "ready to start now".  You get him and you either play him in an awful situation that he'll fail like he did in Washington, or you sit him.  Either way, you burn one of the last remaining years on his rookie deal.

 

At that point, why not just throw a 3rd or 4th on a rookie you like and get full value for their rookie deal and also no pressure to bother starting them if they don't look ready?

 

Moving Mac Jones to me is irrelevant to the situation.  If anything, that's just doing a guy a solid and getting him out of a toxic hole he was never digging out of.  It's just part of the "clearing the decks" they're doing to reinvent the organization.

Edited March 25 by Tugboat

[Hunter2_1]

9 hours ago, Tugboat said:

 

Who is Jalen and why do the Patriots possibly want him so bad?

 

But yeah.  I think that last bit is really where the NE Pick at 3 starts to become fairly interesting.  If they can get a good trade back that doesn't move them too far back to be landing a "blue chip" building block PLUS more and probably even more future ammunition for next year's draft...i think that has to start becoming really appealing.  Especially if they only really like Caleb and "Jalen" or something, and they go 1-2.

I think Maye is going to be particularly sensitive to landing spot and might be the least "ready" of the bunch to start right away.  But particularly, he's one where dropping him into a hot mess of a situation that isn't conducive to getting good play out of a very raw, rookie QB...could really end up being a futile waste of time and draft resources.

So i could see NE looking at it like...this guy is probably gonna have to get sat for a year anyway.  What's the harm in taking a trade back offer, grabbing a couple strong prospects including at least one bluechipper instead, and having the ammunition to go out and probably grab their "first preference" in next year's draft.  Where they'll have been able to lay the groundwork for at least a somewhat better situation for that rookie to parachute into?

 

 

Or yeah...they just really love Maye or "Jalen" or McCarthy, draft him at 3 and don't look back.  That's also very plausible.  But there are options and moving parts and contingencies there i think.

The issue with this though, is you potentially set yourself up for more QB purgatory. You’re kind of hoping that even in spite of the (hopefully) good blue chip players you draft this year, you still suck bad enough to be pick number 1-3 next season.

Seems like a bit of a fallacy to me. Unless of course there’s a very deep QB class coming up, but I don’t think next year‘s is as good is it?

 

but if you start putting names into this equation - if you’re offering Joe Alt and Cooper DeJean, for example. To me that’s more appealing than drafting Jayden (😉). But yeah, point above about QB purgatory still remains.

Edited March 25 by Hunter2_1

[Tugboat]

18 minutes ago, Hunter2_1 said:

The issue with this though, is you potentially set yourself up for more QB purgatory. You’re kind of hoping that even in spite of the (hopefully) good blue chip players you draft this year, you still suck bad enough to be pick number 1-3 next season.

Seems like a bit of a fallacy to me. Unless of course there’s a very deep QB class coming up, but I don’t think next year‘s is as good is it?

 

but if you start putting names into this equation - if you’re offering Joe Alt and Brock Bowers, for example. To me that’s more appealing than drafting Jayden (😉). But yeah, point above about QB purgatory still remains.

If you're wrong on a guy at #3 you're in worse than QB purgatory though.  You're fired.  Sooner than if you hadn't bothered to draft them at all.

 

That's where to me, QB is much more of a "pass/fail" position.  Because that's the way owners tend to treat it for GMs (and their HCs with them).  Because it's also much more of a pass/fail position for teams in general where your guy is good enough or they're not and you want someone else.  You get one shot at a Top-pick 1st round QB.  You don't waste that on a guy you're not a thousand percent sold on.

If you believe in the guy enough to stake your entire GM career on them, go for it.  Draft them.  Stand on that.

If not...as long as you've got the opportunity to defer and try again when you see how next year's crop shakes out?  You take that easy deferral year.

 

 

To me, that's kind of where the Patriots sit...not even knowing if it'll be Maye/Daniels that falls to them.  Or...have the guts to take McCarthy at 3 which i would very much not do.  lol.

 

While also knowing that the roster kinda sucks and whatever QB you draft, you probably don't even want starting this year anyway.

 

You never really know what the next draft year is going to entail.  Right now it looks weak, but is it that far a stretch that maybe a guy like Ewers or Beck who will climb hard like McCarthy but with a lot more compelling and extensive tape?  Plus there's half a dozen other guys who could really vault their stock with a great draft season.  Guys like Burrow happen.  Jayden Daniels himself wasn't anywhere near the radar for a top pick this time last year.  You could be left hanging...but there's a point of confidence where that might be better than just hanging yourself on a QB at #3 that you're not fully sold on.

[sparky151]

If Jalen Milroe continues to develop, he could be getting Anthony Richardson comparisons this time next year.

Patriots have multiple needs on the offense and depth overall. But if they hit on the QB, either this year or next, it's not hard to imagine them competing for the AFCE title in 3 years. Once Rodgers is gone and the Bills and Dolphins are more cap-limited. 

[General Tso]

I was thinking, does Minn have to trade up? Who is a realistic threat to trade ahead of them? Maybe Denver or Las Vegas? Denver is lacking a second round pick.

[sparky151]

If Vikings don't move, the Giants might take a QB. 

[SteelKing728]

2 hours ago, General Tso said:

I was thinking, does Minn have to trade up? Who is a realistic threat to trade ahead of them? Maybe Denver or Las Vegas? Denver is lacking a second round pick.

Denver, NY Giants or Raiders could make that move to get a QB.

I think Minnesota has to move to #4 Sooner than later and be happy with any of Daniels/Maye/McCarthy.