Texans trade 23rd pick to Vikings for 42nd, 188th, and 2025 2nd

[RuskieTitan]

Teams really tripping over themselves to draft the next Trubisky, huh?

[SteelKing728]

1 hour ago, RuskieTitan said:

Teams really tripping over themselves to draft the next Trubisky, huh?

Maybe we should see if Houston will trade the picks back lol

[vike daddy]

7 hours ago, General Tso said:

I was thinking, does Minn have to trade up? Who is a realistic threat to trade ahead of them? Maybe Denver or Las Vegas? Denver is lacking a second round pick.

NY Giants are in an enviable position against us because their trade partners near the top would only drop a few slots, so would still have dibs on top flight players.

Edited March 27 by vike daddy

[CWood21]

On 3/24/2024 at 10:03 PM, Tugboat said:

Sure, maybe QB3 this year is better than QB1 next year.  That's not implausible.  But that depends a lot on who QB3 even is this year, and whether that's a guy that your specific organization really likes or not.  It's also a reality that by this time next year, we'll be talking about teams trading up for these great "top QBs" in the draft all over again, even if they aren't that good.  So you're comparing pre-hype guys to "at the absolute peak of their hype cycle" guys in this draft.

I haven't spent much time looking at the '25 QB class but it looks like it's headlined by Shedeur Sanders, Carson Beck, Quinn Ewers, and Jalen Milroe.  I can't say any of them are anything resembling what Caleb Williams was last year.  If Williams was draft-eligible last year, he almost certainly would have been the #1 overall pick.  Obviously, there's a ways to go until the 2025 draft but it seems like a fool's errand to assume that next year's QB class will be better.  LIS, if you think QB3 is your guy, you take him.  Otherwise, you build the foundation as you mentioned.

 

On 3/24/2024 at 10:03 PM, Tugboat said:

I still think it's probably ~70% that NE just stand pat and draft a QB.  But they've got a lot of options and there are definitely scenarios where that might not appeal to them or even be the best team-building strategy long-term.

If you're truly sold on the guy available at Pick3...you take him and sit him, and that's fine.  But if not...you have to start weighing a guy you're not 100% sold on this year, sitting them for a year...vs a guy who next year, might be able to step right in, especially with a better roster (including from the extra picks from a trade back).

They're in a position to frame this management-wise as a "laying the foundations" year.  There's zero pressure on them to find the Franchise QB this year, and that's an extremely rare thing in the NFL that might be worth taking advantage of.

I'd put it closer to 90%.  I'd leave that 10% chance that they actually move down, but if they move out of that spot I'd bet a LOT of money that either Bo Nix or Michael Penix are Patriots come the end of the draft.  I can't envision any way the Patriots go into the season with only Jacoby Brissett and Bailey Zappe as their top 2 QBs.

On 3/24/2024 at 10:03 PM, Tugboat said:

The biggest thing with not bothering to outbid anyone on guys like Howell, Fields is...if you don't view either of those guys as better than QB3 in this draft...there's really no point.  That's what their draft position gives them access to.  A long-term answer, or potential answer...or even just drafting their own guy Day2 or 3 and getting a longer timeline that probably fits better with where their team is at anyway.  The thing with QBs is...you want the best chance at a Franchise QB you can get.

Except you're trading a Day 3 or Day 2 pick swap on the chance that those guys turn into something.  Odds are they don't amount to much of anything, but if you don't believe a QB is worth a top 3 pick you're probably don't believe in them in general.  Look at the draft history of teams passing on a QB with their initial pick and then going back and taking them with their 2nd pick.

2021 - Kyle Trask (10 career passing attempts)
2020 - Jalen Hurts (Success despite Reagor's failures)
2019 - Drew Lock (21 career starts before traded to Seattle)
2017 - DeShone Kizer (lol)
2016 - Christian Hackenberg (lol x2)

Since 2014, we've had 5 QBs taken in R2 and only one of them turned into an established starter.  As I mentioned above, there's no way the Patriots can afford to go into the season without something to potentially look at as their QBOTF.  Odds are Howell and Fields don't amount to much, but would you rather gamble on them using a Day 3 pick or use a Day 2 pick on a guy like Penix or Nix?

 

[sparky151]

I agree the Patriots are probably taking a QB at 3 rather than trading down. But the trade down option isn't a bad one. At the moment Vegas gives them and Carolina the lowest projected win totals. Those probably won't change much whether the QB is Brissett or a rookie. So they are likely to be drafting early next year.

My view is that it's important to get your rookie QB off to a good start in his career. That's more important than the base talent level of the player. QB2 next year might not be as intrinsically talented as QB3 this year but if he walks into a situation with not much at WR and a hole or two on the O-line, this year's QB might flop hard. Then he gets labeled a bust and it's on to the next guy. 

Build the foundation, then find the QB. 

 

[Tugboat]

8 hours ago, CWood21 said:

I haven't spent much time looking at the '25 QB class but it looks like it's headlined by Shedeur Sanders, Carson Beck, Quinn Ewers, and Jalen Milroe.  I can't say any of them are anything resembling what Caleb Williams was last year.  If Williams was draft-eligible last year, he almost certainly would have been the #1 overall pick.  Obviously, there's a ways to go until the 2025 draft but it seems like a fool's errand to assume that next year's QB class will be better.  LIS, if you think QB3 is your guy, you take him.  Otherwise, you build the foundation as you mentioned.

 

The thing is, from the Patriots situation...Caleb Williams is kind of irrelevant.  There's a 0% chance he's there for them.  So we're punching down a tier...to Daniels/Maye/McCarthy.  And one of those 3 is guaranteed to also be gone.  Probably Daniels, maybe it's still Maye.  But that changes the composition of what you're comparing against "Next Year's Class".

No, there's nothing resembling Caleb right now.  But...again, look at where the likely #2 Pick Jayden Daniels was projected this time last year.  There's no guarantee that somebody from the next class shoots upward like that, but it's also pretty common to see.  Especially since there are actually some pretty decent prospects, just no bluechip "headliner" like Caleb who is the projected #1 years out.  But again, NE won't have access to that prospect this year either.  They're playing in the next tier...of guys who weren't necessarily a lock for the Top-5 (or in some cases even the 1st round at all) at the start of the season.

If CHI+WAS leave NE Daniels/Maye and that's not a guy that they really like...that's where maybe you just look at next year's draft and start making the comparisons and hoping that some guys have big years to cement themselves (which isn't unreasonable).

 

So yeah...that's really the long and short of it.  If you think QB3 this year is terrific, you just do it.  But if not...you weigh it against QB1 and 2 next year and what that might be (with a healthy dose of projection)...and it might start to look very appealing.  Especially considering how important it is to put QBs into a good situation with solid pieces in place around them.

The way NE looks right now, i wouldn't want a top pick rookie anywhere near the field tbh.  So why not take the opportunity to get some extra "foundation" guys in there who can get those rookie ups and downs out of the way so they're more ready when your QB arrives next year?  

 

8 hours ago, CWood21 said:

 

I'd put it closer to 90%.  I'd leave that 10% chance that they actually move down, but if they move out of that spot I'd bet a LOT of money that either Bo Nix or Michael Penix are Patriots come the end of the draft.  I can't envision any way the Patriots go into the season with only Jacoby Brissett and Bailey Zappe as their top 2 QBs.

Except you're trading a Day 3 or Day 2 pick swap on the chance that those guys turn into something.  Odds are they don't amount to much of anything, but if you don't believe a QB is worth a top 3 pick you're probably don't believe in them in general.  Look at the draft history of teams passing on a QB with their initial pick and then going back and taking them with their 2nd pick.

2021 - Kyle Trask (10 career passing attempts)
2020 - Jalen Hurts (Success despite Reagor's failures)
2019 - Drew Lock (21 career starts before traded to Seattle)
2017 - DeShone Kizer (lol)
2016 - Christian Hackenberg (lol x2)

Since 2014, we've had 5 QBs taken in R2 and only one of them turned into an established starter.  As I mentioned above, there's no way the Patriots can afford to go into the season without something to potentially look at as their QBOTF.  Odds are Howell and Fields don't amount to much, but would you rather gamble on them using a Day 3 pick or use a Day 2 pick on a guy like Penix or Nix?

 

I feel like what you're looking at here in terms of "passing up a guy" and then "circling back" for someone later in the draft is exactly why i wouldn't be so confident in them grabbing a guy like Nix/Penix/etc. later in the 1st or early 2nd.  As illustrated there...it has a very low success rate.  There's usually a reason these guys are available later like that.  Spending a valuable building block asset on a project like that just seems counter to a "foundation building" year to me.

 

I think if you're in New England's shoes...you can afford to just roll the season with Brissett.  He's not great, but he's reliable and serviceable enough to at least run a system and let your players get a year of experience in.  I just think they're so deep into a rebuilding process and major franchise transition...they can afford to kind of "mail it in" at QB for the season.  Let it be a building year.  Let it be about getting all of whatever "foundation pieces" you can grab that experience to find their footing.  You have to look at it as a multi-year process...and realistically, i don't see how even with a QB pick at #3...they're not right back up there in the Top-3 range again next year.

 

Maybe they grab a guy at 3 and just sit him.  Maybe they throw him right in and ruin him.  Good chance of both of those things.  But it seems like, in terms of the ownership, new regime, fanbase, etc...you can easily sell it as a building year to trundle through with a Brissett/Zappe duo and your new QB hopefully doesn't start 'til 2025 either way.  🤷‍♀️

[Tugboat]

8 hours ago, sparky151 said:

I agree the Patriots are probably taking a QB at 3 rather than trading down. But the trade down option isn't a bad one. At the moment Vegas gives them and Carolina the lowest projected win totals. Those probably won't change much whether the QB is Brissett or a rookie. So they are likely to be drafting early next year.

My view is that it's important to get your rookie QB off to a good start in his career. That's more important than the base talent level of the player. QB2 next year might not be as intrinsically talented as QB3 this year but if he walks into a situation with not much at WR and a hole or two on the O-line, this year's QB might flop hard. Then he gets labeled a bust and it's on to the next guy. 

Build the foundation, then find the QB. 

 

Yeah.  It's so important to get the "fit" right and drop these rookie QBs into a situation that they're not going to completely drown in.  Ultimately, great QBs are usually going to rise above...but it can absolutely have a huge effect on how well they establish, or even just bust out in extremes.

And to me, the Patriots roster looks like an awful situation for a rookie.  So if you're not going to want a rookie starting this year anyway...why not trade down and try to collect as many building blocks as possible and get them a good solid year of experience to take their rookie lumps and find their footing.  Then draft your QB next year.

As opposed to...draft your QB this year, let them sit.  Then have them step in and take their rookie lumps behind a bunch of 2025 picks who are also going to be taking their rookie lumps simultaneously.

It's a bit of a "Time Value of Money" concept.  Where getting foundational building blocks some experience before you ask a rookie QB to play with them, can have real value.

 

Plus the whole evaluation of whether you like the leftover of (not your choice of) Maye/Daniels more than what that 2025 QB has the potential to produce at the top.  I mean, i'm not really convinced that teams wouldn't look at Ewers as somewhere in the realm of McCarthy if he'd declared for this draft.  He'd have been firmly ahead of Nix/Penix guys.  If he has a big year with multiple bigtime weapons moving on, i think he could easily ratchet his stock up higher.  Could tank out and end up a 3rd or 4th round flyer.  But there are a pretty healthy group of guys with "upside" and "potential" to think about gambling on next year...including some guys who are off the radar right now, but could easily take over a great situation and have a Jayden Daniels type season that vaults them from maybe a Day2 Pick range to the Top-5.

[DirtyDez]

I’ve finally accepted the brutal fact that AZ is trading down.  Monty is going to take advantage of the most valuable #4 pick in draft history.  I’d stick & pick MHJ but there’s too many holes on the roster.

[Hunter2_1]

7 hours ago, Tugboat said:

 

The thing is, from the Patriots situation...Caleb Williams is kind of irrelevant.  There's a 0% chance he's there for them.  So we're punching down a tier...to Daniels/Maye/McCarthy.  And one of those 3 is guaranteed to also be gone.  Probably Daniels, maybe it's still Maye.  But that changes the composition of what you're comparing against "Next Year's Class".

No, there's nothing resembling Caleb right now.  But...again, look at where the likely #2 Pick Jayden Daniels was projected this time last year.  There's no guarantee that somebody from the next class shoots upward like that, but it's also pretty common to see.  Especially since there are actually some pretty decent prospects, just no bluechip "headliner" like Caleb who is the projected #1 years out.  But again, NE won't have access to that prospect this year either.  They're playing in the next tier...of guys who weren't necessarily a lock for the Top-5 (or in some cases even the 1st round at all) at the start of the season.

If CHI+WAS leave NE Daniels/Maye and that's not a guy that they really like...that's where maybe you just look at next year's draft and start making the comparisons and hoping that some guys have big years to cement themselves (which isn't unreasonable).

 

So yeah...that's really the long and short of it.  If you think QB3 this year is terrific, you just do it.  But if not...you weigh it against QB1 and 2 next year and what that might be (with a healthy dose of projection)...and it might start to look very appealing.  Especially considering how important it is to put QBs into a good situation with solid pieces in place around them.

The way NE looks right now, i wouldn't want a top pick rookie anywhere near the field tbh.  So why not take the opportunity to get some extra "foundation" guys in there who can get those rookie ups and downs out of the way so they're more ready when your QB arrives next year?  

 

I feel like what you're looking at here in terms of "passing up a guy" and then "circling back" for someone later in the draft is exactly why i wouldn't be so confident in them grabbing a guy like Nix/Penix/etc. later in the 1st or early 2nd.  As illustrated there...it has a very low success rate.  There's usually a reason these guys are available later like that.  Spending a valuable building block asset on a project like that just seems counter to a "foundation building" year to me.

 

I think if you're in New England's shoes...you can afford to just roll the season with Brissett.  He's not great, but he's reliable and serviceable enough to at least run a system and let your players get a year of experience in.  I just think they're so deep into a rebuilding process and major franchise transition...they can afford to kind of "mail it in" at QB for the season.  Let it be a building year.  Let it be about getting all of whatever "foundation pieces" you can grab that experience to find their footing.  You have to look at it as a multi-year process...and realistically, i don't see how even with a QB pick at #3...they're not right back up there in the Top-3 range again next year.

 

Maybe they grab a guy at 3 and just sit him.  Maybe they throw him right in and ruin him.  Good chance of both of those things.  But it seems like, in terms of the ownership, new regime, fanbase, etc...you can easily sell it as a building year to trundle through with a Brissett/Zappe duo and your new QB hopefully doesn't start 'til 2025 either way.  🤷‍♀️

Feels like a “new” rebuilding year after a phase of our first rebuilding for a long time, which did not rebuild anything. I think the fans would have little patience with another rebuilding year were it the same regime in charge. But because it’s a brand new feel, our patience levels have been reset somewhat. However, we are still tired of losing to Miami and Buffalo every time…but I’m saying you’re right. We will mostly be ok with Brissett steadying the ship somewhat.

 

on the QB rise which seems to occur every year (you mentioned it was Daniels this year, for one), how many of these tend to be genuine? As in, is it a rise based on merit and he should be considered as high as his new projected position, or is it down to QB needyness? They’re projected high all of a sudden, due to the teams needing a QB, rather than him becoming a player so much better than his original projected range? If that makes sense. 

[Tugboat]

1 hour ago, Hunter2_1 said:

Feels like a “new” rebuilding year after a phase of our first rebuilding for a long time, which did not rebuild anything. I think the fans would have little patience with another rebuilding year were it the same regime in charge. But because it’s a brand new feel, our patience levels have been reset somewhat. However, we are still tired of losing to Miami and Buffalo every time…but I’m saying you’re right. We will mostly be ok with Brissett steadying the ship somewhat.

 

Yeah.  Normally, you just don't get this sort of opportunity.  But it feels like the scenario has the fans held at bay for at least another year, if it comes to that.  Part of it is also just that Pats fans aren't using to losing a lot.  I'm sure it's been a new and frightening experience for many.  But with that, seems to come a little bit more patience for the "rebuild of the rebuild" or whatever this is.  The Bill Rebuild failed.  Badly.  But this is the first real year of "reset" on that.  Very different level of urgency than the Bears and Washington who have been rebuilding for...forever ever.

 

Plus...the reality is...Miami are facing quite the fork in the road this season.  And Buffalo...well, the reality is you're not going to consistently reclaim the division until you can find a QB to rival Big Joshy.  Which is setting a pretty high bar.  So you've gotta make sure you get it right.  Or...build one dominant football team.  Or both.

 

1 hour ago, Hunter2_1 said:

 

on the QB rise which seems to occur every year (you mentioned it was Daniels this year, for one), how many of these tend to be genuine? As in, is it a rise based on merit and he should be considered as high as his new projected position, or is it down to QB needyness? They’re projected high all of a sudden, due to the teams needing a QB, rather than him becoming a player so much better than his original projected range? If that makes sense. 

 

I really don't know how this ultimately works out.  If it were easy to figure out an obvious trend, it'd make finding a QB a lot easier.  😆  Sometimes it's a little more obvious than others than a lot of guys are being inflated.  But the reality is...it seems like you sometimes get absolutely Elite QBs out of those "risers".  Other times you get total busts.  But overall...i'd say later "risers" tend to fare better than "fallers" on the whole.  But i ain't done the mathematics on that.

 

Next year is just setting up to be a kind of weird class.  It's being called "weak"...but a decent chunk of it is guys who were part of this "strong" class who dropped out to go back and prove something more.  The headliners aren't Caleb level...but were also generally being discussed as ahead of Nix/Penix even right down to them not declaring. 

And i'd agree with that for the most part.  McCarthy is a bit of an anomaly, in that he's one of those "climbed almost an entire round since the last game was played" types.  That...hrmmm...  Might just be a lot of the mainstream catching up to the football world.  Or it's a huge mistake.  Meanwhile...Maye has felt like he's falling a bit.  Might still go #2 or 3.  But his hype is a lead balloon.  Which isn't usually a positive indicator on trajectory.  And personally, i think he's the best QB prospect in the draft...but it's pretty hard to deny he's also arguably the biggest potential bust.

 

So you look at him being very raw and inconsistent vs guys next year...where maybe somebody starts to pull away with more consistency, or has a Daniels type megaseason...Intriguing.

 

But the Patriots will probably just do the obvious thing, take the 3rd QB and the draft will start at 5.

[General Tso]

10 hours ago, DirtyDez said:

I’ve finally accepted the brutal fact that AZ is trading down.  Monty is going to take advantage of the most valuable #4 pick in draft history.  I’d stick & pick MHJ but there’s too many holes on the roster.

Well you could possibly trade down with NYG and still get Nabers. 

He is like 1B to MHJ's 1A.

[minutemancl]

30 minutes ago, General Tso said:

Well you could possibly trade down with NYG and still get Nabers. 

He is like 1B to MHJ's 1A.

If the first 3 picks are QBs, and the Cardinals trade down with the Giants, they might still get MHJr. 

[General Tso]

26 minutes ago, minutemancl said:

If the first 3 picks are QBs, and the Cardinals trade down with the Giants, they might still get MHJr. 

Yep that's another outcome too. Would be amazing for them.

[squire12]

1 hour ago, General Tso said:

2 hours ago, minutemancl said:

If the first 3 picks are QBs, and the Cardinals trade down with the Giants, they might still get MHJr. 

Yep that's another outcome too. Would be amazing for them

Arizona trades down to 6th with NYG who gets the 4th QB.  Arizona trades up to 5 with LAC for MHJ.   Arizona could net a decent pick profit in that process.

[DirtyDez]

1 hour ago, minutemancl said:

If the first 3 picks are QBs, and the Cardinals trade down with the Giants, they might still get MHJr. 

The Chargers would be nuts to move out of elite WR range given their current receiver room.