What should the Raiders do at QB?

[NudeTayne]

1 hour ago, Rich7sena said:

You're either overrating Minshew's arm or underrating Nix's. Minshew has a below-league-average arm and the entire field (i.e. sideline to sideline) isn't available to him. Nix doesn't have an elite or upper-tier arm, but he has a plus arm. Nix's arm is comparable to Carr's. He can make drive throws in the 20-30-yard range, but he doesn't have the flat 40-yarder in his bag like Allen and Herbert. Also, Nix played in a pro-style passing offense and Minshew played in a college-style air raid.

Athletically, Nix also has more rush potential than Minshew. Nix might not be a true run threat at the position, but he's close. I also disagree that both want to run around and improvise. Both can, but I don't think they do it more than they should. Nix plays on time and on schedule arguably more than any other quarterback in this class.

Nix might be a quality backup like Minshew (this is true of every QB prospect ever), but it won't be for the same reasons Minshew is.

We all want a mustache ride and all, but Nix has twice the arm of Minshew and is a much better athlete. He's "Mom: we have Justin Herbert at home", which is a pretty good prospect.

[Tugboat]

34 minutes ago, Rich7sena said:

You're either overrating Minshew's arm or underrating Nix's. Minshew has a below-league-average arm and the entire field (i.e. sideline to sideline) isn't available to him. Nix doesn't have an elite or upper-tier arm, but he has a plus arm. Nix's arm is comparable to Carr's. He can make drive throws in the 20-30-yard range, but he doesn't have the flat 40-yarder in his bag like Allen and Herbert. Also, Nix played in a pro-style passing offense and Minshew played in a college-style air raid.

Athletically, Nix also has more rush potential than Minshew. Nix might not be a true run threat at the position, but he's close. I disagree that both want to run around and improvise. Both can, but I don't think they do it more than they should. Nix plays on time and on schedule arguably more than any other quarterback in this class. Nix has issues in the pocket, but it's not for the reasons you stated. He doesn't step up in the pocket in response to edge pressure like he should and will fade away from the rush affecting his velocity and accuracy on some throws (similar to Carr earlier in his career).

Nix might be a quality backup like Minshew (this is true of every QB prospect ever), but it won't be for the same reasons Minshew is.

 

I'd agree on that assessment of Minshew's arm for the most part.  Some of those intermediate drive throws outside the hashmarks can be a challenge for him in a tight window.  The really deep ones are just off the table.  But i think they're also completely off the table for Nix as well.  I don't see a huge difference in their arms.  Nix is still going to be below league average.  Or at least, below "quality starter" average.  He has to really work into those deep shots...straight up crow hopping at times.  The combine really pulled the veil back on questions about his arm i thought.  His deeper balls just absolutely died.  Dead.  Like they hit an invisible wall.  By far my biggest takeaway from the QBs who threw at the combine.

Carr seems to have lost some of it over time, but as a prospect, he actually had a pretty big arm.  Much better than Minshew or Nix.  He's just always been afraid to use it.  Mostly because he's skittish in the pocket and fades away before he has a chance to set and throw deep.  Won't stand in there at all.  And doesn't like to throw it deep unless it's completely wide open anyway.  Which isn't great.

 

As far as calling that Oregon offense "Pro Style"... 😆  No.  It's not a pure Mike Leach Air Raid scheme, but it's also like 80% screens, quick hitters, swing routes...and a dash of deep shots thrown in.  They constantly get Nix in rhythm (or back in rhythm) with an extensive series of basically "long handoff" type throws.  That's the home base for that scheme.

As far as the running around an improvising, it looks so darn similar to me.  It's not like Russ cooking or Milf Hunter or the way Caleb just wants to play backyard football even.  But it's the same...not really feeling pressure properly and actually moving into more danger while holding the ball too long to improvise.  It either comes out instantly or it's going to get sketchy.  The number of sacks i've seen Minshew "improvise" his way directly into for no apparent reason, is extremely high.  Nix system in college protects him a bit (as did Minshew's draft year), but i see some of the same tendency there.

I don't see it as the same as Carr who was (and is) just...straight up afraid of the rush (interior specifically).  Like Gabbert and Lock in the school tradition of terrific Mizzou ghost seers for example.  Minshew and Nix are a different sort of pocket presence problem to me.  The guys who hold the ball just a bit too long...because they didn't feel the rush well enough, and then start trying to improvise and run away from it...right into the pressure they didn't feel quite right, or trying to contort into a throw way off platform while goofing around.  It's just a broken clock combined with not feeling the rush.  Can hide it with early easy "on schedule" quick read throws at the collegiate level...but it's probably gonna come out just as ugly at the Pro level as it did with Minshew.  Really hard QBs to block for, from an OLine perspective.  You're gonna eat "sacks credited" that you had nothing to do with.

 

 

I just don't really see the fit with Nix for the Raiders.  He's just too similar to Minshew to me.  Maybe that's a positive in consistency across the QB room.  Interchangeable parts, yay!  But it just feels like such a marginal "upgrade" to me.  Minshew is already pretty much the epitome of a "great stopgap" who is clearly below that "starter threshold".  Maybe an incrementally better version is enough to get you somewhere.  But to me, if i'm the Raiders who already have Moustache for 2 years at a very reasonable cap hit...i'm swinging for the fences.  For Big improvement.  Not a guy who profiles "similar but better" to the guy you already have in his prime as a "fallback plan" and "stopgap" or "bridge" QB.

Heck, if you're going with Nix...he's already old as heck with forever and a half years of starting experience in college.  Is he really a "sit him behind Minshew" candidate?  Just sitting a guy and waiting and developing him into a little bit better Minshew?

At some point, if you can't get there for one of the "Top-4" QBs...why not just stand pat and grab a guy like Joe Milton on Day3 and see if you can teach him how to Quarterback.  Because the difference in his Physical Traits is actually huge.  He kinda sucks.  But at least you'd be sitting and developing a guy with monster traits that could pay off.  At the expense of what...a mid-late Day3 pick somewhere?  Instead of Nix who is probably a late-1st/early-2nd?

 

I mean, you never really know.  If it were easy to forecast, everyone would be doing it.  But i just don't get Nix behind Minshew.  And it's not even because i dislike Nix.  I guess i just don't hate Minshew as much.

[Rich7sena]

22 minutes ago, Tugboat said:

I'd agree on that assessment of Minshew's arm for the most part.  Some of those intermediate drive throws outside the hashmarks can be a challenge for him in a tight window.  The really deep ones are just off the table.  But i think they're also completely off the table for Nix as well.  I don't see a huge difference in their arms.  Nix is still going to be below league average.  Or at least, below "quality starter" average.  He has to really work into those deep shots...straight up crow hopping at times.  The combine really pulled the veil back on questions about his arm i thought.  His deeper balls just absolutely died.  Dead.  Like they hit an invisible wall.  By far my biggest takeaway from the QBs who threw at the combine.

Don't take it from me:

Quote

He has a compact release and generates velocity to drive the ball to all three levels. -Daniel Jeremiah

Quote

 

• Generates quality velocity from a sudden, compact release.
• Ball comes out of his hand with good pace and without much effort.
• Impressive run-and-rip talent throwing accurately on the move. -Lance Zierline

 

Quote

 

It’s impossible to fully appreciate a quarterback’s arm talent without seeing him play live, but Nix appears to drive the ball with high-end velocity. His throwing demeanor shows that he has complete faith in his arm. Nix can throw with varying velocity and trajectory on short and deep passes to hit receivers with well-located throws. -Marc Trestman

 

 

 

Quote

As far as calling that Oregon offense "Pro Style"... 😆  No.  It's not a pure Mike Leach Air Raid scheme, but it's also like 80% screens, quick hitters, swing routes...and a dash of deep shots thrown in.  They constantly get Nix in rhythm (or back in rhythm) with an extensive series of basically "long handoff" type throws.  That's the home base for that scheme.

Again, don't take it from me:

Quote

I don't see it as the same as Carr who was (and is) just...straight up afraid of the rush (interior specifically).  Like Gabbert and Lock in the school tradition of terrific Mizzou ghost seers for example.  Minshew and Nix are a different sort of pocket presence problem to me.  The guys who hold the ball just a bit too long...because they didn't feel the rush well enough, and then start trying to improvise and run away from it...right into the pressure they didn't feel quite right, or trying to contort into a throw way off platform while goofing around.  It's just a broken clock combined with not feeling the rush.  Can hide it with early easy "on schedule" quick read throws at the collegiate level...but it's probably gonna come out just as ugly at the Pro level as it did with Minshew.  Really hard QBs to block for, from an OLine perspective.  You're gonna eat "sacks credited" that you had nothing to do with.

No one who has watched Nix would claim he holds the ball too long. If anything, he doesn't hold it long enough, even on non-screen throws. It feels like you're describing a completely different player than the one I watched.

Quote

Heck, if you're going with Nix...he's already old as heck with forever and a half years of starting experience in college.  Is he really a "sit him behind Minshew" candidate?  Just sitting a guy and waiting and developing him into a little bit better Minshew?

I think Nix would beat Minshew in camp.

[Tugboat]

27 minutes ago, Rich7sena said:

Don't take it from me:

I'd really rather would take it from you.  The person i'm discussing this with.  Rather than some frivolous "Appeal to Authority" stuff that i could (and probably have) just read elsewhere.  If i wanted a data scraping bot, that's easy enough.  The value of this forum is...people can have their own opinions and actually discuss them.

 

That aside...if we're going there...you left out a lot of balancing context.

DJ (reference here pre-combine) remarked multiple times during that QB throwing session at the combine, that he was surprised by the way Nix balls were not getting out there.  He genuinely had the worst throwing session of all the QBs, relative to expectations.  It was one of those true, "well that's odd...and not great" moments.  The only kind of thing a QB can do to really impact their draft projection at the combine by throwing is...to come up short.  Like Nix did.  Pretty consistently.

That's where...i'm going to trust my own eyes and what i saw, then going back and seeing throws.  Over some articles and profiles slapped together and before major events requiring potential revision when going back to the tape.

 

Heck, even the Zierlein profile you linked...you clearly just glossed over the "Cons" section.

Quote

• Nearly 30 percent of his passes in 2023 were thrown behind the line of scrimmage, per Pro Football Focus.
• Tends to short-arm throws when blitz is leaking in.
• Decision-making can take a hit when he extends the play.
• Left easy touchdowns on the field due to overthrows.
• Bucket throws will come out a little flat.

That's textbook arm questions and system questions and issues with holding the ball too long and making things worse.

30% of passes behind the LOS is exactly what i'm talking about with the number of screens and swing passes and quick hitters he tosses to get him in rhythm in that offense.  That's what the tape shows.  That's what the breakdown shows.  That's not "Pro Style".  Even Warner calling it "more pro style" than the competition is...well yeah, compared to whom?  Caleb and Maye weren't anywhere close, Jayden Daniels wasn't even on the same planet.  McCarthy is the closest to "Pro Style" and they didn't even really ask him to throw much.

Deep shots coming up flat - exactly what i said.  Overthrows?  Often just sailing balls trying to put more muscle behind it to compensate for the lack of real easy drive.  Particularly when you get the two in combination.

Short-arming throws under pressure?  Again...same as Minshew, exactly what i said about throwing off poorly improvised platforms after they get themselves in trouble.

Decision-making taking a hit when he extends play?  Literally exactly what i suggested about him.  It's either out early and on time...or it's going to get sketchy.  Just.  Like.  Minshew.

 

 

27 minutes ago, Rich7sena said:

Again, don't take it from me:

And if you want to "appeal to authority" like this...

Kurt was out their stanning for Kenny Pickett a couple years ago.  Didn't like Stroud that much.  Milf Hunter was a guy he loved before that.  He really liked Trubisky and literally described at one point, the idea of him doing a lot of "Pro Style things" at UNC.

 

Great story as a player.  Interesting enough to listen to with a grain of salt.  Horrific evaluator and if you're going to appeal to authority, at least appeal to one with a clue or a track record of not being completely wrong on most things.

 

Mayock was basically "the gospel" on player evaluations for a long time.  He did how well as Raiders GM?  That was fun right?

Listen when insightful people speak, but be critical.

 

27 minutes ago, Rich7sena said:

No one who has watched Nix would claim he holds the ball too long. If anything, he doesn't hold it long enough, even on non-screen throws. It feels like you're describing a completely different player than the one I watched.

I think Nix would beat Minshew in camp.

This "no one who has watched" **** is such garbage.  It's a cop-out escape hatch to disagreement in the way you see things.  Especially when paired with an immediate appeal to authority like this.

I've watched plenty of Bo Nix.  He's been in college for fifty years.  The tape is out there.  I wasn't even born when he started playing in the NCAA, but i've still seen plenty of him playing football.  And i'm not even a hater who has carried that over from his Auburn days where honestly...i thought he looked in over his head, but actually really promising.

I just prefer to take reports from the "experts" with a grain of salt, and try to form my own opinions.  Rather than just parroting what they said in a random media hit or slapped together report, or where they hedged against themselves in a different instance, as some absolute incontrovertible truth.  I like to try to take it in as a whole broader picture and see how it all plugs in together with my own evaluation.  What do i agree with?  What do i not?

 

 

As far as Nix winning out over Minshew in camp...yes.  That's entirely possible.  But it's why it doesn't make much sense to me.  To go out and grab one of the best "stopgaps" money can buy.  Then use that on...a marginal upgrade guy who is old and ready to start right away?

 

[Dr A W Niloc]

I'd be delighted with Bo Nix as the new Raiders QB, despite the puny 6.8 yard Average Depth of Target.  Unlike Minshew and other game managers, Nix can throw downfield;  he just chooses not to.

Quarterback     Pass Deep Mdim Prsr None | Adj. ADot BTTR TWPR Deep Scrn Drop P2SR AT2T
                Rtng Grad Grad Rtng Rtng | Cmp%      Rate      Yrds Yrds Rate      Secs
                                         |                              
Michael Penix   90.5 93.5 90.9 65.3 92.2 | 74.5 10.7  7.3  2.0 1787  567  5.5  7.6 2.68
Bo Nix          92.7 95.5 94.7 91.2 91.9 | 85.5  6.8  4.1  1.0  999  749  7.0  7.6 2.44
Drake Maye      89.8 97.1 83.8 61.3 91.7 | 75.3 11.0  7.7  1.9 1452  316  8.2 19.5 2.79
Jayden Daniels  92.0 99.2 89.4 63.0 93.2 | 79.6 10.5  8.4  1.6 1347  277  6.7 20.2 2.91
Caleb Williams  84.6 95.5 78.0 38.9 93.4 | 77.5  9.2  6.2  3.6 1342  616  3.9 23.0 3.16
J.J. McCarthy   87.3 93.1 92.4 72.9 89.4 | 80.8  9.4  5.9  2.9  706  134  7.7 16.8 2.84
                                          
Key:

Pass-Rtng = Passer Rating from PFF.
Deep-Grad = Passer Grade on deep throws.
Mdim-Grad = Passer Grade on medium throws.
Prsr-Rtng = Passer Rating under pressure.
None-Rtng = Passer Rating when not under pressure.
Adj.-Cmp% = Adjusted Completion Percentage.
ADoT = Average Depth of Target in yards.
BTTR = Big Time Throw Rate.
TWPR = Turnover Worthy Pass Rate.
Deep-Yrds = Yards gained with long passes.
Scrn-Yrds = Yards gained with very short passes.
Drop-Rate = Percentage of drops by targets.
P2SR = Pressure to Sack rate.
AT2T = Average Time to Throw.

 

 

[dll2000]

7 hours ago, Tugboat said:

And if you want to "appeal to authority" like this...

Kurt was out their stanning for Kenny Pickett a couple years ago.  Didn't like Stroud that much.  Milf Hunter was a guy he loved before that.  He really liked Trubisky and literally described at one point, the idea of him doing a lot of "Pro Style things" at UNC.

Great story as a player.  Interesting enough to listen to with a grain of salt.  Horrific evaluator and if you're going to appeal to authority, at least appeal to one with a clue or a track record of not being completely wrong on most things.

Mayock was basically "the gospel" on player evaluations for a long time.  He did how well as Raiders GM?  That was fun right?

Listen when insightful people speak, but be critical.

 

  What do i agree with?  What do i not?

 

 

Interesting thoughts there.  I mostly agree.   I think you have to keep in mind with evaluation and projection to next level everyone bats under .300 or so. 

People can be right on many things or have solid reasoning on a prospect and he still fails.  There are just so many variables or too many to account for when it comes to humans, situations and life choices.  

I am winning my NCAA bracket amongst a large group of people.  I haven’t watched a basketball game in 6+ years.  When I was younger I knew most every player on every team and their strengths and weaknesses. Never did this good. 

Not saying being a GM or drafting is all luck. Cream will still rise over time. But with it comes a lot of misses.

I just keep in mind a proverb: Men throw dice, but God decides how they land.  

[CasperX22]

Wait, did someone just call Oregon's offense "pro style"?  I like Nix, but good Lord haha.  Also, Nix does not have a big arm, but it's good enough to make all the throws he's going to need to make in the NFL.  He's also probably the best QB in this class in terms of accuracy 10 yards and in which like it or not is where the majority of the game is played.  He has some limitations that cap his ceiling, but I'd bet on him being an NFL starting caliber QB before Daniels or McCarthy.

[Rich7sena]

On 4/3/2024 at 12:21 AM, Tugboat said:

Great story as a player.  Interesting enough to listen to with a grain of salt.  Horrific evaluator and if you're going to appeal to authority, at least appeal to one with a clue or a track record of not being completely wrong on most things.

Imagine being a two-time MVP and Super Bowl champion and MVP and not being an authority on what is and isn't a pro-style passing offense. Kurt needs to get on the Tugboat grindset if he wants to get taken seriously.

[CasperX22]

2 hours ago, Rich7sena said:

Imagine being a two-time MVP and Super Bowl champion and MVP and not being an authority on what is and isn't a pro-style passing offense. Kurt needs to get on the Tugboat grindset if he wants to get taken seriously.

That makes him an expert talent evaluator how?  His track record on evaluating QB's is not good.

Imagine being a 3-time SB champ and HOF QB, but not able to articulate what you're seeing on the field to a national audience after 20 years of doing so.  Guess we should kiss the feet of these greats and never question them again.

[Rich7sena]

12 minutes ago, CasperX22 said:

That makes him an expert talent evaluator how?  His track record on evaluating QB's is not good.

Imagine being a 3-time SB champ and HOF QB, but not able to articulate what you're seeing on the field to a national audience after 20 years of doing so.  Guess we should kiss the feet of these greats and never question them again.

I didn’t refer to Kurt’s evaluation of Nix, I referred to his evaluation of the offense. But hey, you might know better than Kurt Warner what an NFL offense looks like.

[Tugboat]

On 4/4/2024 at 8:35 PM, Rich7sena said:

I didn’t refer to Kurt’s evaluation of Nix, I referred to his evaluation of the offense. But hey, you might know better than Kurt Warner what an NFL offense looks like.

In this case, they're effectively one in the same though.  Your argument for Nix is that Kurt Warner says he's good and coming from a "Pro Style" offense at Oregon is a part of that.

 

Though in the clip, he literally just says, "more Pro Style than others".  Which is a qualifier.  Also more plausible, when none of Caleb/Maye/Penix are coming out of anything resembling a "Pro Style" offense either.

[Rich7sena]

On 4/6/2024 at 6:15 PM, Tugboat said:

In this case, they're effectively one in the same though.  Your argument for Nix is that Kurt Warner says he's good and coming from a "Pro Style" offense at Oregon is a part of that.

 

Though in the clip, he literally just says, "more Pro Style than others".  Which is a qualifier.  Also more plausible, when none of Caleb/Maye/Penix are coming out of anything resembling a "Pro Style" offense either.

There's irony in invoking appeal to authority when you're straw-manning my argument. 

Here's our respective chain of argumentation:

You claim Nix, like Minshew, came from a "very college offense" -> I dispute that by saying Nix played in a pro-style passing offense and Minshew played in the air-raid -> You claim, without providing any evidence, that 80% of Oregon's offense is screens or some variation thereof -> I show you a tweet and video from Kurt Warner showing that Nix played in a pro-style passing offense -> you claim I'm appealing to authority and attack Warner's credibility by saying he doesn't know how to evaluate quarterbacks (which has nothing to do with whether or not Nix played in a pro-style passing offense) -> I state that whether or not Kurt is a good evaluator does not speak to whether he can identify a pro-style offense (which would be a dumb point to attack) -> you state I am actually not arguing that Warner can identify what a pro-style passing offense is and actually using Warner's tweet as endorsement of Nix as a prospect (because, again, it would be dumb to suggest that Warner cannot identify a pro-style passing offense).

Hope this helps.

 

Edited April 9 by Rich7sena

[Tugboat]

1 hour ago, Rich7sena said:

There's irony in invoking appeal to authority when you're straw-manning my argument. 

Here's our respective chain of argumentation:

You claim Nix, like Minshew, came from a "very college offense" -> I dispute that by saying Nix played in a pro-style passing offense and Minshew played in the air-raid -> You claim, without providing any evidence, that 80% of Oregon's offense is screens or some variation thereof -> I show you a tweet and video from Kurt Warner showing that Nix played in a pro-style passing offense -> you claim I'm appealing to authority and attack Warner's credibility by saying he doesn't know how to evaluate quarterbacks (which has nothing to do with whether or not Nix played in a pro-style passing offense) -> I state that whether or not Kurt is a good evaluator does not speak to whether he can identify a pro-style offense (which would be a dumb point to attack) -> you state I am actually not arguing that Warner can identify what a pro-style passing offense is and actually using Warner's tweet as endorsement of Nix as a prospect (because, again, it would be dumb to suggest that Warner cannot identify a pro-style passing offense).

Hope this helps.

 

 

I feel like you missed a ton of steps here.

 

1)I specifically mentioned that Nix doesn't have that same Leach offense stink on him like Minshew (who actually, if we really want to get down to it...only played the one year there).  He was if i recall correctly, actually in the process of transferring to Alabama to get started on his coaching career, basically...when Mike called him up to take a ride.

 

2)I didn't bring up the % throws behind/beyond LOS.  Somebody else entirely brought those concrete statistics into the discussion...but it really lends itself directly to what i was laughing at about this "Pro Style" offense at Oregon.

 

3)I feel like you haven't even watched this Kurt Warner video or something.  You keep leaning on this, but even he specifically suggests that Nix was asked to do, "some more pro style things than others".  Which is a very far cry from Oregon's offense being anything like "Pro Style".  Two completely different statements.  That's a sliding scale where say...USC, LSU, and Washington had systems that are just hilarious and extensively college-centric.  Compared to that?  Yeah...i'd say Nix was in an offense that is "more pro style than Penix".  But that's basically saying nothing.  Multiple other posters since have echoed similar sentiments about how laughable it is to call Oregon's offense "Pro Style".  It's a relative thing.  Like..."fastest turtle".  Doesn't mean it's fast.  Ain't gonna blow Usain's doors off when he's done with his McDs.

 

4)I attacked your appeal to Kurt's authority because you straight up argued i don't know what i'm talking about because Kurt said this and Thus It Is Decreed.  And i attack Kurt's authority on QB evaluation, because that is what you invoked.  He has repeatedly proven he doesn't have a clue what he's talking about in evaluating QBs.

 

5)Idk what your issue even is with the rest of that.  Either you stand fast that Kurt is the arbiter of "Pro Style Bo Nix" or not.

 

 

But even if you stand by that last point...i still haven't really seen a compelling argument from you specifically about why Bo Nix is as good as you seem to think he is.  Without leaning on weird stuff from others like Kurt.  So hit me with it.  Why is this guy so great?  What am i missing here?  Why is Bo Nix a future superstar?

[Cutler06]

Draft the next JaMarcus Russell

[SteelKing728]

On 4/2/2024 at 10:16 PM, NudeTayne said:

We all want a mustache ride and all, but Nix has twice the arm of Minshew and is a much better athlete. He's "Mom: we have Justin Herbert at home", which is a pretty good prospect.

That's probably the biggest knock on Minshew. He's a fine QB, but he'd be a legit starter with even an average arm.