Grading the Packers 2021 draft.....

[vegas492]

Looks like the 2020 draft (Love) can now be graded as an A.  That draft was always going to hinge on Love, either A or F.

So now we can move on to the 2021 draft.

Remember that one?  None of us really looked at Eric Stokes, even after he ran a blistering 40 at 4.25.  And then we all came around and said we should have seen it.  

RAS of 9.37.  Hit the size metric.  Went to a big college and played multiple years while getting better in every year.  It was all there.

So, here is the class.  What is your grade?

1.29.  Eric Stokes, CB.  Started 14 games as a rookie.  1 pick.  55 tackles.  Has started 11 games in the next two years.  Injuries got him.

2.62.  Creed Humphrey J/K.  Josh Myers, C. Started 6 games as a rookie.  17 games the past two seasons.  Up and down, but seemed to play a lot better last year down the stretch.

3.85.  Amari Rodgers, WR.  I think we traded for him.  Obvious bust.  Didn't meet a size metric, or a RAS metric.

4.142.  Royce Newman, G.  Started 16 games as a rookie.  6 games in 2022.  2 games in 2023.

5.173.  Tedarrell Slaton, DL.  Great developmental story here.

5.178.  Shemar Jean-Charles, CB.

6.214.  Cole Van Lanen, OL.

6.220.  Isaiah McDuffie, LB.

7.256.  Kylin Hill, RB.

My quick analysis?  Stokes has disappointed due to injuries.  Myers is okay as a center with more ceiling left to him and he's been a multiple year starter.  Rodgers is a bust.  Newman started for a year and was  a guy we needed to replace.  Probably okay as a depth piece inside, but also a guy you hope to replace with a draft pick that has a higher ceiling.  Slaton may be re-signed.  SJC, CVL, Hill.....never amounted to anything.  McDuffie has played fine when asked.  Big year for him to make money.

I'm probably going to go kind of harsh here and say that draft is a D.  Could get talked into a C.  Two guys may get long term deals from us.  Stokes just clouds everything.  But, we did hit on 2 players in the 5'th round or later and that ain't too shabby.  Due to that and the injury around Stokes (which is just bad luck), I talked myself into a C.

What you got?

 

 

Edited March 27 by vegas492

[skibrett15]

Any draft that doesn't get you a starter from your first round pick is a really bad start.  Myers is unfairly panned here but he has been available and reliable for the most part.

Not sure the positional value is there but he filled a need at the time.

Mcduffie and Newman have each played snaps, and the rest are complete busts.

D for me.

[Dubz41]

If Stokes can stay healthy and contribute it goes to a B.

Don't try to grade Norm's Mom,

She's a valedictorian every year.

[vegas492]

13 minutes ago, skibrett15 said:

Any draft that doesn't get you a starter from your first round pick is a really bad start.  Myers is unfairly panned here but he has been available and reliable for the most part.

Not sure the positional value is there but he filled a need at the time.

Mcduffie and Newman have each played snaps, and the rest are complete busts.

D for me.

But he did start and play a lot as a rookie.  He was quite good that year.

Then injuries happened.   It's tough to grade Stokes, just because of the injuries.

[OneTwoSixFive]

c-

[skibrett15]

4 minutes ago, vegas492 said:

But he did start and play a lot as a rookie.  He was quite good that year.

Then injuries happened.   It's tough to grade Stokes, just because of the injuries.

If we are going to bump up peoples grades because they play we necessarily must downgrade them if they don't.  It's not fair but it's the system we've chosen to operate under.

I can give Stokes a higher grade or incomplete but I must downgrade all uninjured players for being "lucky" that they were able to stay healthy.

[ThatJerkDave]

1.29.  Eric Stokes, CB.  He started out really promising, then has been hampered by injuries since his rookie season.  He is on the train to injury bustland and will not get his 5th year option picked up.  What we have seen when he is healthy enough to play has not been encouraging.  2024 is probably his last chance before becoming someone else's reclamation project.

2.62.  Josh Myers, C. I am completely fine with him. He is pretty much a neutral player at center.  Every time he pulls a boner, he eventually makes up for it with a great downfield block.  I don't believe you win or lose games because of Josh Myers.

3.85.  Amari Rodgers, WR.  I really liked the idea at the time.  On paper, this is a 23 year old Randall Cobb.  In real life, he is a 44 year old Randall Cobb with half the intensity and fumbles every second time he touches the ball.

4.142.  Royce Newman, G.  He battled as a rookie and started the entire season.  He was a weak link, but he was a 4th round rookie who won the position in camp.  His second year he added a little weight and strength that he was lacking as a rookie... and he somehow got worse.  He probably isn't as bad as we rag him for, but how many times did we see a play get blown up and then the camera shows Newman?

5.173.  Tedarrell Slaton, DL.  TJ was a big fat guy with work ethic problems.  When he got to Green Bay, he became a big fat guy with no work ethic problems.  Whatever it was that turned on with this guy is great.  He will get paid a decent second contract somewhere in the league, I hope it is Green Bay.  

5.178.  Shemar Jean-Charles, CB.  SJC was a small school prospect that had very high ball production in college.  He was a tad small and a tad slower than we usually want, but he was productive there.  I don't recall him getting a lot of opportunities, but he certainly didn't seize the ones that he did get.  I think he played special teams a lot for a couple of seasons.  It looks like he is still on the Saints roster, so he is sticking around somewhere. 

6.214.  Cole Van Lanen, OL.  Local Green Bay kid that also went to Wisconsin.  We traded him after one season.  He is still with the Jaguars and played sparingly for two seasons.

6.220.  Isaiah McDuffie, LB.  Solid pick-up late.  He has filled in well for Devondre Campbell, and at least before the 2024 draft, looks to be a starter for the Packers.  

7.256.  Kylin Hill, RB.  Character concern but talented RB.  His character issues reared their ugly head again with the Packers, and he was gone.  I don't see that he has been given a 9th chance or whatever he is on.

 

Overall, I am going to give it a C.  The adage is that you want 3 starters from a draft.  Well, we got two for sure starters with Myers and Slaton.  We have also gotten 9 starts out of McDuffie, which looks to increase this season, 16 starts out of Newman, and 25 starts out of Stokes.  I am pretty sure that an un-injured Stokes would have been a full-time starter.  That doesn't bump it up to an A+ pick, but it softens the critique.  Rodgers really pulls down the grade though.  It is not too often that a single player can cost you so many games, and that player not be a QB or K.  The returns on SJC, CVL and Hill are pretty negligible, which is to be expected out of picks after 150.  

[vegas492]

49 minutes ago, skibrett15 said:

If we are going to bump up peoples grades because they play we necessarily must downgrade them if they don't.  It's not fair but it's the system we've chosen to operate under.

I can give Stokes a higher grade or incomplete but I must downgrade all uninjured players for being "lucky" that they were able to stay healthy.

Of course it isn't "fair" when injuries happen.  When I graded, I originally thought D for the draft.  But after I looked at it, Stokes did start one year and play at a high level.  Then he (and us) got unlucky with injuries.   It isn't like he can't play because he wasn't good enough, the kid was very good as a rookie.  So that took my grade up to a C.

[vegas492]

25 minutes ago, ThatJerkDave said:

Overall, I am going to give it a C.  The adage is that you want 3 starters from a draft.  Well, we got two for sure starters with Myers and Slaton.  We have also gotten 9 starts out of McDuffie, which looks to increase this season, 16 starts out of Newman, and 25 starts out of Stokes.  I am pretty sure that an un-injured Stokes would have been a full-time starter.  That doesn't bump it up to an A+ pick, but it softens the critique.  Rodgers really pulls down the grade though.  It is not too often that a single player can cost you so many games, and that player not be a QB or K.  The returns on SJC, CVL and Hill are pretty negligible, which is to be expected out of picks after 150.  

No disagreeing with anything you said...rather I'd like your opinion.

Seems like we did well in the late round of the draft.  5-7.  Finding two guys that are either starters or pseudo starters is pretty awesome for a draft.  'Duff Man has always been solid on specials, too.  

C seems about right, though if giving out half grades, I'd probably lean C-.

How do you feel about that late round stuff?  And?  How would you rate this draft if Stokes were still starting for us and playing like he did in year one?

I only ask because even if he was a legit hit in the first round, to me this is still a B draft. (maybe B+) Probably because I'd expect more out of a second round center than what Myers has been and Rodgers just being pretty awful.

[HighCalebR]

Myers, Slaton, McDuffie. Epitome of average draft. No home runs but getting on base .

[Arthur Penske]

Passing on Creed was always a mistake

 

 

 

Edited March 27 by Arthur Penske

[ThatJerkDave]

4 minutes ago, vegas492 said:

Of course it isn't "fair" when injuries happen.  When I graded, I originally thought D for the draft.  But after I looked at it, Stokes did start one year and play at a high level.  Then he (and us) got unlucky with injuries.   It isn't like he can't play because he wasn't good enough, the kid was very good as a rookie.  So that took my grade up to a C.

Were Justin Harrell and Derrick Sherrod busts?  Of course.  And the result is the same as drafting Amari Rodgers.  But when the reason a guy busts is "he got injured," vs "he couldn't play football," there has to be some kind of difference.  Again, it doesn't mean it is an "A+" pick, but it should be seen as a better pick than a player that just isn't any good.  Drafting BJ Sander was a far greater blunder than drafting Justin Harrell, at least in my book.  

[Zycho32]

1.29.  Eric Stokes, CB.  Grade: C-. He gets a passing grade largely because of his rookie year, so there's still potential and the chance he can reclaim his career from the injury bug. That said, time's running out on him on this team and he needs a rebound year badly.

2.62.  Josh Myers, C. Grade: C+. Seems a pretty poor grade to give a constant starter, but Myers seems to be the most volatile lineman in terms of being rated. As for me, I don't see much, but I'd be lying if I said I could ever see any centers during the course of play. Probably would be talked about more for replacement than Walker if not for his 2nd Round status.

3.85.  Amari Rodgers, WR.  Grade: F. Cruel, but holy crap. I called him a 'AAAA' Player once, and it still fits; his athleticism did not measure up to the pros, and whatever intangibles he had weren't enough to compensate for it. Held on for a year longer than he should've been, IMHO.

4.142.  Royce Newman, G.  Grade: C-. I'm probably grading this guy too high, as he was pushed out of the starting lineup and for all intents and purposes has demonstrated his ceiling is in the back of the OL Room. But he is a Day 3 pick, and from here lowered expectations offer more generous grades. Could probably drop into the Ds if he's gone.

5.173.  Tedarrell Slaton, DL.  Grade: C+. Decent rotational piece, has hung on. Closest thing we have to a nose, but that may change one way or another. He'd make it to 'B' if he had more impact when he plays.

5.178.  Shemar Jean-Charles, CB.  Grade: D+. Can't really find much to talk about with this guy. Back of the CB room, never truly remarkable on ST, ultimately washed out after a couple of years. Held a spot, and wasn't an embarrassment, but that's honestly about it.

6.214.  Cole Van Lanen, OL.  Grade: D-. Still hanging around in the league, but did little here. Granted, he had next to no opportunity here and since he was traded it means something of value was gained from him, hence the lack of an 'F' here. Dang shame, it just stings in that irrational way when the Local Guy can't make it.

6.220.  Isaiah McDuffie, LB.  Grade: B-. At this late stage, just being a solid depth piece gets you a good grade, and the work McDuffie has had filling in for Campbell and Walker from time to time has more than earned his grade. He might even end up with a starting job this upcoming season.

7.256.  Kylin Hill, RB.  Grade: D+. Showcased early promise as a returner and backup RB, until his injury. By the time he was brought back, Nixon took over the return duties and something or other must have happened to make the team do away with him.

[ThatJerkDave]

40 minutes ago, vegas492 said:

No disagreeing with anything you said...rather I'd like your opinion.

Seems like we did well in the late round of the draft.  5-7.  Finding two guys that are either starters or pseudo starters is pretty awesome for a draft.  'Duff Man has always been solid on specials, too.  

C seems about right, though if giving out half grades, I'd probably lean C-.

How do you feel about that late round stuff?  And?  How would you rate this draft if Stokes were still starting for us and playing like he did in year one?

I only ask because even if he was a legit hit in the first round, to me this is still a B draft. (maybe B+) Probably because I'd expect more out of a second round center than what Myers has been and Rodgers just being pretty awful.

I think Caleb nailed it.  No home runs, but getting on base.  

If Stokes were still healthy and playing well, let's even call him the 64th starter at CB in the league, I think this draft is probably a B. Fair or not, I don't know if there is anything that Stokes can do at this point to change how I would feel about this draft class.  We already basically missed 2 years from him.  If he is say the 40th best CB this year, we probably re-sign him to a mid-level starter contract, and at that point, we might just let him go anyway.  Right now, at least, I would rather some of that money would go to Watson or Wicks over an average CB that we can probably replace in future drafts.

Rodgers at 85 has to drop you from A consideration, unless there is a superstar, which there isn't.  Our 5th round and later picks hit 2/5, which is a decent hit rate.  These guys are long shots as is, and at least TJ Slaton will have earned a real second contract.  I don't knock any misses after about pick 150, unless they are actively costing the team.  The late round whiffs don't bother me.   

We got:  Myers and Slaton as hits.  McDuffie as an ascending contributor.  Stokes and Newman as descending contributors.  Three late round misses.  And a bust.

We should end up paying Myers and Slaton second contracts.  And I think McDuffie will be able to have an Eric Wilson type career at the very least.  

  

 

[hitnhope]

D.

Some busts and no plus level starters.   Overall, a below average draft.

Look forward to doing these the next 2 years where the grades are MUCH better.